Semifinals Thread

[MattPie]

It's a pretty cool tool. Check it out.

http://www.sportingc...m/nhl/icetrack/

 

Neat! You can't get this kind of analysis anywhere else!

[TrueBlueGED]

I don't think the stats that either of us cited support the characterization of Vanek as "an elite offensive player."

 

If we're going to narrow down the category further to "elite net-front presence" -- first, I don't think that description of Vanek is supported by pts/60 min at even strength, because that stat doesn't differentiate between net-front, half-wall, etc. Second, even if that stat were in fact a proxy for "net front eliteness" -- I don't think an average ranking of 31st in that stat over the last 5 years would qualify as "elite."

 

(As an aside, I don't see why PP time should be excluded -- although I would guess that including PP time would help Vanek.)

 

Doesn't a player need to have more game than just an "elite net-front presence" to be considered an "elite offensive player?" And if a player is only "an elite net-front" guy but has serious other holes in his game, is that enough to earn him substantial ice time in the semifinals (or, as you might prefer, "conference finals")?

 

We may just be implicitly disagreeing on the meaning of "elite." I think of "elite" as a proxy for "top 5-10." For a player to be considered an "elite goalscorer," I think that player needs to be consistently in the top 5-6 goalscorers in the NHL. You may think the "elite" group is much higher.

 

I also think that an "elite offensive player" needs to be a guy who consistently pressures the defense and creates scoring chances. I would guess that you would admit that Vanek disappears for long stretches

 

The stats I gave were never intended to support my contention about him being elite in front of the net, it was a rebuttal to your goal scoring numbers. Sorry for not being more clear on that.

 

I shouldn't have used the phrase "elite offensive player" because I agree that involves consistently generating chances (viva la Corsi!) which he is not great at, and yes, I would agree "elite" is a proxy for top 5-10, which he is not. But being in the top 30 consistently, with spouts of much higher, in my mind makes him a great scorer...not good, but great. I used even strength numbers because I think Vanek is always portrayed as a power play specialist, when the numbers say he's a heck of an even strength scorer. I'm not against also using special teams numbers, but because they are vastly different situations, I do think special teams numbers and even strength numbers should be separated rather than talked about as cumulative numbers.

 

Edit: the charting website linked by XB can be used to demonstrate how ridiculous Vanek is in front of the net. It's not a perfect comparison because of injuries (and I'm not investing the time to make this a perfect comparison), but for the past 5 years Vanek routinely has twice as many tip-in and deflection chances than Crosby, who is unarguably the league's best offensive player. Comparing him to somebody like Nash (which given career stats and position, is probably a much better comparison), Vanek's shots are still far more clustered around the net and based on tips/deflections than Nash's are. Example here: http://www.sportingc...1&r2strength=#1

Edited May 22, 2014 by TrueBluePhD

[drnkirishone]

Carillo swings his stick at the line an and the awesome team on NBC snow can't understand the game misconduct..

[IKnowPhysics]

http://www.washingto...nrik-lundqvist/

 

 

So the Habs currently cannot score on Lundqvist, and apparently by far the best way to score on him is to get shots/chances in close. If only the Habs had an elite net-front presence they could utilize to aid them in this endeavor.

 

Lack of defensive intensity, lazy stick penalties, whatever...fact of the matter is you have to get in close to score on Lundqvist, and that's the one thing nobody argues Vanek is elite at. A good coach would find a way to use this ability while masking his weaknesses.

 

Play with the heat map tool: sportingcharts.com

MON vs NYR goals.

 

The graphic in the Post illustrates that good scoring opportunities come from in close (ie good scoring areas). There's a little bit of variance between different teams, but they're effectively the same to 1st order. In other words, the best way to score on anyone is in close. Accordingly, Montreal needs to stop shooting from the outside and start getting to good scoring areas. They've had some chances inside, but they obviously need more.

Edited May 23, 2014 by IKnowPhysics

[Jsixspd]

Rangers bailed out Lundqvist (and themselves with that last minute goal to tie the game.

 

Desperation time coming up for the Habs in this overtime. 2-0 series deficit is bad enough, 3-0 the fat lady will be singing.

[bunomatic]

Monreal wins a must win. They're back in it.

[nfreeman]

Briere with yet another huge playoff goal.

 

Could someone in WNY please leave a flaming bag of dog poop on Larry Quinn's doorstep?

 

And did anyone who watched the game think Vaneks play justified more ice time than his now-customary 11 minutes?

Edited May 23, 2014 by nfreeman

[Buffalo Wings]

Briere with yet another huge playoff goal.

 

Could someone in WNY please leave a flaming bag of dog poop on Larry Quinn's doorstep?

 

And did anyone who watched the game think Vaneks play justified more ice time than his now-customary 11 minutes?

 

I admit I haven't been glued to this series yet, but I also haven't noticed Danny too much on the ice. His goal was a nifty play (or a lucky bounce, depending on your perspective), but it doesn't seem like he's all over the ice and the Rangers have no answer for him.

 

Montreal got the lucky bounces they needed to stay in this thing. I thought Tokarski was solid-to-excellent and deserved the win. This won't be a series unless Montreal wins on Sunday night.

[26CornerBlitz]

@TSNBobMcKenzie

As @DarrenDreger said, NYR Dan Carcillo likely to be hit with Rule 40 abuse of official, calls for auto suspension of 3 or 10 or 20 games.

[X. Benedict]

@TSNBobMcKenzie

As @DarrenDreger said, NYR Dan Carcillo likely to be hit with Rule 40 abuse of official, calls for auto suspension of 3 or 10 or 20 games.

 

Keeping a linesman tied up for no reason when a fight is going on is really bad form. That could get someone killed. He deserves it for that alone.

[spndnchz]

http://youtu.be/khK9t3dRhqw

[LGR4GM]

it took a couple watches but he tries to elbow him... give him the rest of the playoffs.

[Eleven]

Keeping a linesman tied up for no reason when a fight is going on is really bad form. That could get someone killed. He deserves it for that alone.

 

Peters is on the radio right now spinning it the exact opposite way: The linesman had no business tying up Carcillo, who might have needed to assist a teammate.

 

Sorry, but I think I've seen linesmen tie up players before. And given that it's Carcillo, I'm siding with the linesman on this one.

[darksabre]

Peters is on the radio right now spinning it the exact opposite way: The linesman had no business tying up Carcillo, who might have needed to assist a teammate.

 

Sorry, but I think I've seen linesmen tie up players before. And given that it's Carcillo, I'm siding with the linesman on this one.

 

The linesman is just supposed to let Carcillo jump Prust right? Something something The Code.

[That Aud Smell]

Peters is on the radio right now spinning it the exact opposite way: The linesman had no business tying up Carcillo, who might have needed to assist a teammate.

 

Sorry, but I think I've seen linesmen tie up players before. And given that it's Carcillo, I'm siding with the linesman on this one.

 

Regardless of whether Peters, with the prodding of his producer, is just trying to stir debate, and increase calls/listenership, or whether he actually believes that, it is a completely and totally idiotic thing to say. The other linesman had the scrap well in hand, and the Rangers player was getting the worse of it, so the linesman who got chugged and chopped by Carcillo made the sensible decision, given the circumstances, to grab hold of Carcillo, who was lingering on the periphery of the fight, and telling him that he wasn't about to get his own shot on Prust.

 

The fact that Carcillo reacted the way he did reveals that the guy's probably taken too many shots to the head.

[IKnowPhysics]

One of the players on my team engaged a linesman. You can't. You just. Can't. The stripe wasn't professional and did not do a good job deescalating the situation, but there's no excuse for the player engaging him. It's unsportsmanlike, there's no benefit to it, and in some situations, it's dangerous. At the team's direction, not the league's, he's sitting the season. Hopefully he'll learn from his mistake.

[26CornerBlitz]

@KatieStrangESPN

#NYR #MTL Prust to have hearing with league's Department of Player Safety http://espn.go.com/new-york/nhl/story/_/id/10973024/derek-stepan-new-york-rangers-wants-nhl-review-hit-made-brandon-prust-montreal-canadiens …

[SwampD]

@KatieStrangESPN

#NYR #MTL Prust to have hearing with league's Department of Player Safety http://espn.go.com/n...eal-canadiens …

My meaningless opinion - borderline hit. Good no call.

[LGR4GM]

Well he deserves a suspension. There isn't a reason to make this hit.

http://youtu.be/VRSl05vZZaI

[SwampD]

Well he deserves a suspension. There isn't a reason to make this hit.

 

There's no reason not to either.

[Trettioåtta]

There's no reason not to either.

 

Sad truth of the matter. Not even 2 minutes. Even if they do suspend him, it will be for 1 game. It is still beneficial to make these plays. That is why they happen so often

 

He broke Stepan's jaw. I'd take that trade any day

Edited May 23, 2014 by ThirtyEight

[26CornerBlitz]

There's no reason not to either.

 

Rangers' Stepan out indefinitely with broken jaw: http://www.nhl.com/i...id=nhl:topheads

[nfreeman]

My meaningless opinion - borderline hit. Good no call.

 

I don't agree at all. This was a dirty, unnecessary head shot delivered well after Stepan got rid of the puck -- much like Chris Neil's hit on Chris Drury way back when.

 

I'd like to see these hits punished out of existence.

 

Edit: just saw 26CB's post. I'd suspend Prust for 10 games.

Edited May 23, 2014 by nfreeman

[Trettioåtta]

I don't agree at all. This was a dirty, unnecessary head shot delivered well after Stepan got rid of the puck -- much like Chris Neil's hit on Chris Drury way back when.

 

I'd like to see these hits punished out of existence.

 

Edit: just saw 26CB's post. I'd suspend Prust for 10 games.

 

I'd wasn't a head hit. Shoulder to chest. But it was very late

[That Aud Smell]

There's no reason not to either.

 

that hit's not much different from the garbage neil unleashed on drury -- it's high, it's late, and it's from a blindside. it's garbage.

 

but if the point is that the cost-benefit (as alluded to by 38) weighs in favor of doing it, then, given the league's likely reaction, it may not be entirely incorrect to say "no reason not to".