2014-2015 Roster

[Taro T]

 

 

 

 

At the beginning and at the end of 2012/13, Sam was the consensus number one guy for 2014. Grigo was never the number one guy for 2012 and was only seriously in that conversation for a few months early in his draft year. Sam was never out of the conversation in his year.

 

Neither 2012, nor 2014 were considered weak drafts. They were considered average.

The "weak" perception comes from comparisons to the top end of 2013 and 2015, where McKinnon, Jones and Eichel were/are being talked up as franchise players and McDavid is getting the generational tag.

 

Reinhart is neither, but he is just as good a first-line prospect on his draft day as Barkov, Drouin, Yakupov, Galchenyuk, and Nugent-Hopkins were on theirs.

Grigorenko was not. That is why he slipped to 12.

I feel very sorry for the kid for the fact the media-created perception to the contrary was out there, and that The Sabres did everything they could to encourage it.

According to THN, in February 2012, Grigorenko was still #3 and was the highest rated C. Forsberg (who fell to (shudder) 11 and whom several here still covet) had taken Galchenyuk's 2nd spot as Alex fell to 6.

 

It wasn't until Grigorenko's poor close to the year due to the mono that his stock dropped.

 

Also according to TSN, in February 2014, Reinhart was #4 and was the 3rd ranked C behind Draisatl and Bennett. Those 2 names might ring a bell as there were a fair # of people here that thought Bennett could be the Sabres pick and I could've sworn somebody here thought it could have been Leon. (Not positive on the last one.)

 

So to say Reinhart was ALWAYS thought more highly than Grigorenko would not be accurate. (At least according to the crew at THN.)

[rakish]

I looked at Pronman's list for 2012 and 2014, he has Grigo 3 in 2012 and Reinhart 5 for 2014.

 

On my Sabres pipeline chart, I have Reinhart well ahead of where Grigo was at his age.

 

So I think I agree with everyone, except Pronman

Edited September 5, 2014 by rakish

[dudacek]

 

According to THN, in February 2012, Grigorenko was still #3 and was the highest rated C. Forsberg (who fell to (shudder) 11 and whom several here still covet) had taken Galchenyuk's 2nd spot as Alex fell to 6.

 

It wasn't until Grigorenko's poor close to the year due to the mono that his stock dropped.

 

Also according to TSN, in February 2014, Reinhart was #4 and was the 3rd ranked C behind Draisatl and Bennett. Those 2 names might ring a bell as there were a fair # of people here that thought Bennett could be the Sabres pick and I could've sworn somebody here thwought it could have been Leon. (Not positive on the last one.)

 

So to say Reinhart was ALWAYS thought more highly than Grigorenko would not be accurate. (At least according to the crew at THN.)

 

All true. But the snapshot you are looking at is where Grigo was at his apex and Reinhart his nadir, in terms of hype.

And it is at the midway point of the season that fans and media start paying serious attention to the draft.

Typically, during the first half of a draft year scouts are picking apart the favourites (like Reinhart and McKinnon) and giving serious consideration to the risers (like Bennett and Drouin). Then they spend the second half of the season second guessing their second guessing.

 

So you're right, "always" was hyperbole, and I apologize for that. But it is accurate to say that in the two-year run-up to the draft Reinhart spent a lot of time as a consensus number one and never dropped lower than a very close four. Grigo was never a consensus one and ultimately a 12. I'll try this, "generally", Reinhart was a higher-ranked prospect.

 

(I hope you're right and mono was the only reason.)

Edited September 5, 2014 by dudacek

[Huckleberry]

I can easily see Grigorenko make it and Reinhart being send back.

Grigorenko needed some time to mature physically and it looks like he is finally there, allthough he doesn't have the hockey sense Reinhart has.

 

The one thing that stood out from prospects camp to me was, how Reinhart looked like a kid vs Girgensons and Grigorenko wich is normal seeing he is two years behind.

But if Reinhart isn't ready physically he needs to go back like tampa did with drouin. We really shouldn't risk him getting injured when he isn't phsyically ready for it.

Grigorenko will most likely be send to the AHL, if he tears it up there he'll be a call up and Reinhart will get his 9 games.

Edited September 6, 2014 by Heimdall

[deluca67]

I can easily see Grigorenko make it and Reinhart being send back.

Grigorenko needed some time to mature physically and it looks like he is finally there, allthough he doesn't have the hockey sense Reinhart has.

 

The one thing that stood out from prospects camp to me was, how Reinhart looked like a kid vs Girgensons and Grigorenko wich is normal seeing he is two years behind.

But if Reinhart isn't ready physically he needs to go back like tampa did with drouin. We really shouldn't risk him getting injured when he isn't phsyically ready for it.

Grigorenko will most likely be send to the AHL, if he tears it up there he'll be a call up and Reinhart will get his 9 games.

Any previous expectations of Grigorenko need to be tossed out the window. Grigorenko is a player who can be a valuable part of the future of this franchise even if he doesn't live up to the initial expectations of being a #1 pick. IMO, if Grigorenko settles into a Curtis Brown like 3rd line center he would be of great value to the Sabres.

[Weave]

Any previous expectations of Grigorenko need to be tossed out the window. Grigorenko is a player who can be a valuable part of the future of this franchise even if he doesn't live up to the initial expectations of being a #1 pick. IMO, if Grigorenko settles into a Curtis Brown like 3rd line center he would be of great value to the Sabres.

 

Given where he was drafted, this should have been the expectation right from the start. We were oversold on him, not unlike every other 1st round pick during the Darcy era.

[drnkirishone]

 

 

Given where he was drafted, this should have been the expectation right from the start. We were oversold on him, not unlike every other 1st round pick during the Darcy era.

I am sick of hearing the where he was drafted argument. Where he was drafted has no bearing on the type of player he becomes. If he becomes a curtis brown type I will be very disappointed. If he does not exceed browns offensive numbers it will be disappointing.

[Hoss]

I am sick of hearing the where he was drafted argument. Where he was drafted has no bearing on the type of player he becomes. If he becomes a curtis brown type I will be very disappointed. If he does not exceed browns offensive numbers it will be disappointing.

 

Mhm. If anything, where he was drafted dictates top-six center. Definitely not a solid third liner.

[Weave]

I am sick of hearing the where he was drafted argument. Where he was drafted has no bearing on the type of player he becomes. If he becomes a curtis brown type I will be very disappointed. If he does not exceed browns offensive numbers it will be disappointing.

Mhm. If anything, where he was drafted dictates top-six center. Definitely not a solid third liner.

 

Sick of it or not, the reality guys selected at the 12th spot are a coin toss to have a meaningful NHL career, let alone be a top 6 guy.

 

Case and point, 11 years of 12th overall picks:

 

2010- Cam Fowler

2009- Calvin de Haan

2008- Tyler Myers

2007- Ryan McDonagh

2006- Brian Little

2005- Marc Staal

2004- AJ Thelen

2003- Hugh Jessiman

2002- Steve eminger

2001- Dan hamhuis

2000- Alexei Smirnoff

 

In 11 drafts at the 12th spot there are 5 NHL D men (and de Haan still trying to solidify his spot in the league), a few fringe forwards, and a couple that never made it. Expecting Grigo to be a top 6 guy was expecting out of the ordinary production for that draft slot.

[Hoss]

 

 

 

Sick of it or not, the reality guys selected at the 12th spot are a coin toss to have a meaningful NHL career, let alone be a top 6 guy.

 

Case and point, 11 years of 12th overall picks:

 

2010- Cam Fowler

2009- Calvin de Haan

2008- Tyler Myers

2007- Ryan McDonagh

2006- Brian Little

2005- Marc Staal

2004- AJ Thelen

2003- Hugh Jessiman

2002- Steve eminger

2001- Dan hamhuis

2000- Alexei Smirnoff

 

In 11 drafts at the 12th spot there are 5 NHL D men (and de Haan still trying to solidify his spot in the league), a few fringe forwards, and a couple that never made it. Expecting Grigo to be a top 6 guy was expecting out of the ordinary production for that draft slot.

 

Little isn't a "fringe" forward. Seven of those 11 are having at least solid career's so far. De Haan looks like he's on that track.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Weave,

 

Generally I agree with you on this, but is it not true that Grigorenko was expected to be drafted / was rated a better prospect then a 12 pick. I believe his stock dropped significantly as the draft neared and the Sabres were not expecting him to be still on the board at 12. Maybe I've got that all wrong.

 

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/mikhail_grigorenko/

 

Central Scouting had him ranked as the third highest rated NA skater in the 2012 draft, which would have likely put him in a higher draft position than #12.

 

I still think he will be a solid #2 centre for the Sabres, baring any better centres being drafted in the near future.

[Weave]

Little isn't a "fringe" forward. Seven of those 11 are having at least solid career's so far. De Haan looks like he's on that track.

 

Ok, 1 top 6 forward, not a top two center among the last eleven drafts. I stand by my point. *IF* Grigo makes it to #2 center he'll be the first drafted in that spot in over a decade. Skill guys at this point in the draft are flawed. Generally they don't overcome those flaws well enough to be top 6 players. Some do, obviously. But it's not realistic to put that expectation on them.

 

Weave,

 

Generally I agree with you on this, but is it not true that Grigorenko was expected to be drafted / was rated a better prospect then a 12 pick. I believe his stock dropped significantly as the draft neared and the Sabres were not expecting him to be still on the board at 12. Maybe I've got that all wrong.

 

http://www.hockeysfu...ail_grigorenko/

 

Central Scouting had him ranked as the third highest rated NA skater in the 2012 draft, which would have likely put him in a higher draft position than #12.

 

I still think he will be a solid #2 centre for the Sabres, baring any better centres being drafted in the near future.

 

I hope he develops into a top 6 guy. I really do. But I think we are all witnessing why he dropped. His talent level was enough to get him talked about as a top skater, but when the chips were laid out he got passed over 11 times. 11 teams decided there was a less flawed choice on the board. I still think it was a great choice at 12. At the time I called it a high risk, high reward pick. And I think that distinction still holds. I bought in to the idea that this kid was a diamond that fell out of the mine entrance. Darcy sold it well. Ruined two contract years trying to sell it further. But the kid is what most #12 picks are, flawed and has a good chance of not living up to the promise he showed in juniors. Given the draft spot, Curtis Brown would be a real good result. It means we found a functional, effective NHL'er at a spot in the draft where that starts to get pretty dicey.

Edited September 6, 2014 by weave

[nfreeman]

 

 

Ok, 1 top 6 forward, not a top two center among the last eleven drafts. I stand by my point. *IF* Grigo makes it to #2 center he'll be the first drafted in that spot in over a decade. Skill guys at this point in the draft are flawed. Generally they don't overcome those flaws well enough to be top 6 players. Some do, obviously. But it's not realistic to put that expectation on them.

 

 

 

I hope he develops into a top 6 guy. I really do. But I think we are all witnessing why he dropped. His talent level was enough to get him talked about as a top skater, but when the chips were laid out he got passed over 11 times. 11 teams decided there was a less flawed choice on the board. I still think it was a great choice at 12. At the time I called it a high risk, high reward pick. And I think that distinction still holds. I bought in to the idea that this kid was a diamond that fell out of the mine entrance. Darcy sold it well. Ruined two contract years trying to sell it further. But the kid is what most #12 picks are, flawed and has a good chance of not living up to the promise he showed in juniors. Given the draft spot, Curtis Brown would be a real good result. It means we found a functional, effective NHL'er at a spot in the draft where that starts to get pretty dicey.

 

Good post. It is substantially below a 50% likelihood that Griggy's NHL career is as good as Brownie's was.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I'd be pretty happy if Grigorenko ended up being as reliable as Curtis Brown. A good player for the Sabres.

 

I'm hoping for more, but the above would be a good result.

[Hoss]

 

 

Ok, 1 top 6 forward, not a top two center among the last eleven drafts. I stand by my point. *IF* Grigo makes it to #2 center he'll be the first drafted in that spot in over a decade. Skill guys at this point in the draft are flawed. Generally they don't overcome those flaws well enough to be top 6 players. Some do, obviously. But it's not realistic to put that expectation on them.

 

Your sample size is terrible. There is three forwards in that group. Of them one turned into an AHL-lifer, one turned into a top-six forward and one never played in the NHL. That doesn't show anything conclusive.

[dudacek]

 

That doesn't show anything conclusive.

 

It conclusively shows it's been along time since a first-line forward was picked in that slot.

[Hoss]

 

 

It conclusively shows it's been along time since a first-line forward was picked in that slot.

 

The conversation is top six. And it shows that the last forward picked in that slot is a top six forward... Does that group mean that if we draft a goalie at number twelve then chances are he won't be a starter? No. It'd be a good group to talk about defensemen and that's about it.

 

The three forwards before 2000 drafted 12th were Dennis Shvidki (bust), Alex Tanguay (long-time forward with 700 career points), Marian Hossa (probable hall of famer).

Edited September 6, 2014 by Tankalicious

[SwampD]

 

 

The conversation is top six. And it shows that the last forward picked in that slot is a top six forward... Does that group mean that if we draft a goalie at number twelve then chances are he won't be a starter? No. It'd be a good group to talk about defensemen and that's about it.

 

The three forwards before 2000 drafted 12th were Dennis Shvidki (bust), Alex Tanguay (long-time forward with 700 career points), Marian Hossa (probable hall of famer).

So you jump on him for having too small a sample size for his point to be valid, then you reduce it even smaller (to one) to prove yours?!

 

Don't you ever get tired of always being right?

[drnkirishone]

i don't care what the previous picks at 12 did. If grigorenko can only top out at 22 goals and 51 points in a season he will be a disappointment. His skill set is not that of a 3rd line shut down player.

[Weave]

Your sample size is terrible. There is three forwards in that group. Of them one turned into an AHL-lifer, one turned into a top-six forward and one never played in the NHL. That doesn't show anything conclusive.

 

The sample shows exactly what I was trying to state, that #2 centers at that point in the draft are uncommon. Do we need to go back another decade?

 

The conversation is top six. And it shows that the last forward picked in that slot is a top six forward... Does that group mean that if we draft a goalie at number twelve then chances are he won't be a starter? No. It'd be a good group to talk about defensemen and that's about it.

 

The three forwards before 2000 drafted 12th were Dennis Shvidki (bust), Alex Tanguay (long-time forward with 700 career points), Marian Hossa (probable hall of famer).

 

Technically, the conversation was even narrower. It was about top 2 centers at that point in the draft. And you started it down that path.

 

So you jump on him for having too small a sample size for his point to be valid, then you reduce it even smaller (to one) to prove yours?!

 

Don't you ever get tired of always being right?

 

I'm not convinced he's ever been right often enough to grow tired of it. But when there is a slight chance he sure does have a Pavlovian reaction.

 

i don't care what the previous picks at 12 did. If grigorenko can only top out at 22 goals and 51 points in a season he will be a disappointment. His skill set is not that of a 3rd line shut down player.

 

22 goals and 52 pts IS top 2 center stats in the NHL now. WTF more could you want?

[Hoss]

 

So you jump on him for having too small a sample size for his point to be valid, then you reduce it even smaller (to one) to prove yours?!

 

Don't you ever get tired of always being right?

 

Me expanding the sample size just a few slots was to make a point. It shows you that small sample sizes don't say anything in particular. If all you knew was that two of three 12th picks were star forwards you'd be excited, just like knowing only one of three is even decent is discouraging.

[Huckleberry]

Well the 2015 draft will be critical on our future roster make up. If we do grab another center (lets say Mcdavid) Grigorenko and Reinhart could become a 2a - 2B kind of thing.

Or reinhart can wind up on his wing, who knows, I'm just getting excited looking at these kids. Moving Hodgson to the wing has already solidfied my believe that Grigs will be our #2.

 

I see Girgensons more as our future #3 center though. Ideally he gets pushed back to that spot after 2015 because off all the talent down the middle.

 

Reinhart will need to get physically stronger to play in a man's league and to be able to absorb punishing NHL hits like the one laid on him by Zemgus Girgensons at the Sabres Development Camp this July. It was a thundering, board-rattling hit that was a "welcome to the NHL" moment from a player who had the physical makeup to make the jump to the pros as an 18 yr. old.

 

Guess im not alone in thinking this way. http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Michael-Pachla/Building-the-Buffalo-Sabres-2014-15-roster--C-Zemgus-Girgensons/209/62158

[LGR4GM]

i don't care what the previous picks at 12 did. If grigorenko can only top out at 22 goals and 51 points in a season he will be a disappointment. His skill set is not that of a 3rd line shut down player.

I have been running the numbers from this past season and those point totals (0.275GPG / 0.3625APG, 80games) would rank that center just outside the top 25 centers in the league for production last year.

 

Sick of it or not, the reality guys selected at the 12th spot are a coin toss to have a meaningful NHL career, let alone be a top 6 guy.

 

Case and point, 11 years of 12th overall picks:

 

2010- Cam Fowler

2009- Calvin de Haan

2008- Tyler Myers

2007- Ryan McDonagh

2006- Brian Little

2005- Marc Staal

2004- AJ Thelen

2003- Hugh Jessiman

2002- Steve eminger

2001- Dan hamhuis

2000- Alexei Smirnoff

 

In 11 drafts at the 12th spot there are 5 NHL D men (and de Haan still trying to solidify his spot in the league), a few fringe forwards, and a couple that never made it. Expecting Grigo to be a top 6 guy was expecting out of the ordinary production for that draft slot.

To be fair I don't think you can look at it that way. I think the better metric would be to look at all the players drafted 11-15 and then see who was there. I say 11-15 to allow for a different player to be selected by Buffalo if they potentially drafted in that spot. In reality we are trying to ascertain the validity of a player picked in that range not necessarily at precisely pick #12. Either way Grigorenko is a long shot to be a top 6 player.

[Huckleberry]

The roster I would love

 

Hodgson - Reinhart - Stewart

Moulson - Grigorenko - Stafford

Ennis - Girgensons - Gionta

Foligno- Larson - Kaleta

 

Myers - Gorges

Zadorov - Ristolainen

Pysyk - Meszaros

 

Personally think Zadorov, grigs and reinhart will have to wait another year to become a mainstay though.

Grigorenko might get called up after trade deadline.

 

I think Hodgson has the ability and Hockey IQ to make a fantastic wingman for Reinhart, if stewart and stafford don't work out on that RW i'd put Zemgus there.

Edited September 10, 2014 by Heimdall

[inkman]

The roster I would love

 

Hodgson - Reinhart - Stewart

Moulson - Grigorenko - Stafford

Ennis - Girgensons - Gionta

Foligno- Larson - Kaleta

 

Myers - Gorges

Zadorov - Ristolainen

Pysyk - Meszaros

 

Personally think Zadorov, grigs and reinhart will have to wait another year to become a mainstay though.

Grigorenko might get called up after trade deadline.

 

I think Hodgson has the ability and Hockey IQ to make a fantastic wingman for Reinhart, if stewart and stafford don't work out on that RW i'd put Zemgus there.

That's a 25 win team