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It sure does! Throw a couple "ifs" in there and they are good! If Stafford finally turns the corner, if Myers plays well, if Enroth is as good as he has shown at times and this is a playoff team folks

 

I know, if ifs and buts were candy and nuts everyday would be Christmas

 

Woa, Woa, Woa. Moulson was on this team last year so that's a draw, Miller is gone and Ehrhoff is gone. So you are possibly turning the worst team in the league into a playoff question mark by adding leadership in Georges and Ginota. I LOVE the leadership moves but let's not turn this into something it is not. Gionta adds 20 goals maybe and Georges is not as good as the guy that left. The Sabres are going to be A LOT more fun to watch but playoffs.....not a chance.

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Nah.

 

Vanek/Moulson -> Moulson: sidegrade

Ott -> Gionta: upgrade

Ehrhoff -> Gorges: downgrade

Miller/Enroth -> Enroth/Neuvirth: downgrade

???? -> Stewart: upgrade

Kids improve? upgrade

 

To my eye we either break even or are slightly better on paper, but everybody around us (save for perhaps Calgary) also got better. I'm not concerned.

 

I really don't think NYI got better. compare their roster now to 2/8 (before Taveres injury, they were racing FLA for 2nd last place in the East)

 

Pre-injury Taveres ==> Recovery Season Taveres (sidegrade/downgrade)

Season of statistical anomaly Okposo ==> regular okposo (huge downgrade)

Vanek/Moulson ==> ??? (huge downgrade)

Andy MacDonald ==> TJ Brennan (Huge Downgrade)

 

Nabakov (0.905 sv%) ==> Halak (probably 0.915 sv% with isles) moderate upgrade

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I really don't think NYI got better. compare their roster now to 2/8 (before Taveres injury, they were racing FLA for 2nd last place in the East)

 

Pre-injury Taveres ==> Recovery Season Taveres (sidegrade/downgrade)

Season of statistical anomaly Okposo ==> regular okposo (huge downgrade)

Vanek/Moulson ==> ??? (huge downgrade)

Andy MacDonald ==> TJ Brennan (Huge Downgrade)

 

Nabakov (0.905 sv%) ==> Halak (probably 0.915 sv% with isles) moderate upgrade

 

I wasn't considering the Isles since we have their pick, so we're not really competing with them for last. I did the math (see: copied from twitter) elsewhere, but if the Isles team SV% improves to even just league average, it's in the 40-50 fewer goals allowed range. Tavares should be 100%, and having him all year should offset the loss of production from Okposo slowing down. Also keep in mind Strome could have more of an impact. I think they're mildly better, and could be moderately better if they land somebody like Niskanen.

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I think Okposo for the isles will still have a 20g 30-40a season. He is 26 and in his prime. I think Strome will be a positive impact and I believe Reinhart will also probably crack their lineup. Will they be a playoff team? No, they shouldn't be. I would think again, as I have said a lot, 10-14th place.

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I wasn't considering the Isles since we have their pick, so we're not really competing with them for last. I did the math (see: copied from twitter) elsewhere, but if the Isles team SV% improves to even just league average, it's in the 40-50 fewer goals allowed range. Tavares should be 100%, and having him all year should offset the loss of production from Okposo slowing down. Also keep in mind Strome could have more of an impact. I think they're mildly better, and could be moderately better if they land somebody like Niskanen.

 

Assuming no on else of note heads to the island:

 

How many more shots will the Macdonald ==> Brennan and Vanek/Moulson ==> ??? switches create?

 

Also: Garth Snow didn't get fired.

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Well, we now know why they cut Ehrhoff: this team is one veteran top-three Defenceman and some Teddy Nolan magic from sprinting up into Carolina/Ottawa/Vancouver/ Winnipeg let's pick eighth territory.

You mean all the teams that finished 20+ points ahead of them last year when we had Miller in goal? With or without Ehrhoff, it's going to take more than magic to make that jump.

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I really don't think NYI got better. compare their roster now to 2/8 (before Taveres injury, they were racing FLA for 2nd last place in the East)

 

Pre-injury Taveres ==> Recovery Season Taveres (sidegrade/downgrade)

Season of statistical anomaly Okposo ==> regular okposo (huge downgrade)

Vanek/Moulson ==> ??? (huge downgrade)

Andy MacDonald ==> TJ Brennan (Huge Downgrade)

 

Nabakov (0.905 sv%) ==> Halak (probably 0.915 sv% with isles) moderate upgrade

Isles are marginally better but I still see them bottom 5. Halak/guy they signed today (sorry, name escapes me at present) don't seem to be worth a 5-10 slot rise in the standings. The rest of the team is more or less comparable to last year's squad.

I have a bad feeling that Teddy Nolan is going to screw us with a line-up like this. We need the complete Islander collapse.

Which is why I want Reinhart and Zadarov both in juniors by game 10. That team would have enough heart to be entertaining but bereft-enough of skill to be bottom-5 bad. Very sadly, that's what I'm resigned to wanting (but ONLY this upcoming season) after that, build it to win it.

 

 

 

 

You mean all the teams that finished 20+ points ahead of them last year when we had Miller in goal? With or without Ehrhoff, it's going to take more than magic to make that jump.

Run Teddy's pre-purge win %age through a full year and they're bad but not scary bad. Teddy makes bad players forget their bad. Maybe they could pull up Hackett to get firmly entrenched in the losing ways. ;)

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So, trying to match player for player in terms of role:

In: Reinhart, Gorges, Gionta, Moulson, Kaleta, McCormick, McCabe, and Mezaros

Out: Conacher, Ehrhoff, D'Agostini, Leino, Konopka, Scott, McBain and Tallinder

 

That's one-third of the line-up turned over from what we finished with, and its pretty hard to argue it's not a significant improvement.

Edited by dudacek
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What John Vogl just posted is probably pretty close to what we'll see:

 

Moulson-Ennis-Stafford

Hodgson-Reinhart-Gionta

Foligno-Girgensons-Stewart

Deslauriers-McCormick-Kaleta

 

Maybe Larsson gets another full year in the AHL? Torrey Mitchell could/should be the extra forward.

 

 

That lineup looks, almost unfortunately, good.

It at least looks worth watching. Hopefully not TOO good.

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So, trying to match player for player in terms of role:

In: Reinhart, Gorges, Gionta, Moulson, Kaleta, McCormick, McCabe, and Mezaros

Out: Conacher, Ehrhoff, D'Agostini, Leino, Konopka, Scott, McBain and Tallinder

 

That's one-third of the line-up turned over from what we finished with, and its pretty hard to argue it's not a significant improvement.

On top of that last years team was totally shot in the chemistry department, heading down and they knew it. Chemistry matters, and a feel they are headed up matters, too. Making the playoffs isnt saying they are a good team, its 8th.
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So we're looking at:

 

Moulson - Reinhart - Gionta

Hodgson - Ennis - Stafford

Foligno - Girgensons - Stewart

Deslauriers - Larsson - Kaleta

w/ Mitchell as spare and

 

Georges - Myers

Pysyk - Zadorov

Meszaros - Ristolainen

w/ Ruhwedal & Weber as spares and

 

Neuvirth

Enroth

 

Looks to me like a legit #2 line, a so-so #2 line, a resonable #3 and #4 (and it could be somebody other than Larsson; just don't expect Cody M there). With a solid/strong 3-4 pair, a so-so 3-4 pair that will improve as the season progresses, and a reasonable/good 5-6 and a pair of good backups in net.

 

With Ron Rolston behind the bench looks like bottom feeders, w/ Nolan looks just bad.

 

If Reinhart and Zadorov are in junior, there is a huge hole at center and D makes me nervous as well - hello bottom 5.

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So, trying to match player for player in terms of role:

In: Reinhart, Gorges, Gionta, Moulson, Kaleta, McCormick, McCabe, and Mezaros

Out: Conacher, Ehrhoff, D'Agostini, Leino, Konopka, Scott, McBain and Tallinder

 

That's one-third of the line-up turned over from what we finished with, and its pretty hard to argue it's not a significant improvement.

 

I can, and I will. But not yet. Have to put some stuff together to properly make the argument.

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I can, and I will. But not yet. Have to put some stuff together to properly make the argument.

Looking forward to it.

To me the only spot we lose is the Ehrhoff Gorges.

And really, it's more like Myers for Ehrhoff, Risto for Myers and Gorges for Hank in terms of how they will be used.

Gionta Moulson is huge over D'Agostini Leino, Reinhart can't be worse than Conacher, and anybody over Scott makes us better.

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So we're looking at:

 

Moulson - Reinhart - Gionta

Hodgson - Ennis - Stafford

Foligno - Girgensons - Stewart

Deslauriers - Larsson - Kaleta

w/ Mitchell as spare and

 

Georges - Myers

Pysyk - Zadorov

Meszaros - Ristolainen

w/ Ruhwedal & Weber as spares and

 

Neuvirth

Enroth

 

Looks to me like a legit #2 line, a so-so #2 line, a resonable #3 and #4 (and it could be somebody other than Larsson; just don't expect Cody M there). With a solid/strong 3-4 pair, a so-so 3-4 pair that will improve as the season progresses, and a reasonable/good 5-6 and a pair of good backups in net.

 

With Ron Rolston behind the bench looks like bottom feeders, w/ Nolan looks just bad.

 

If Reinhart and Zadorov are in junior, there is a huge hole at center and D makes me nervous as well - hello bottom 5.

 

The danger is, Stafford (contract year), Moulson (based on career averages), and reinhart/ennis/hodgson (based on potential) could (unlikely, but conceibably) score 90 and be a totally legit #1 line Leaving Gionta and the other two young guys as a potential legit second line and screwing with the whole tank.

 

 

 

I really hope our goalie of the future is playing in Juniors/AHL and these guys secure the tank. It would make me feel better.

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The danger is, Stafford (contract year), Moulson (based on career averages), and reinhart/ennis/hodgson (based on potential) could (unlikely, but conceibably) score 90 and be a totally legit #1 line Leaving Gionta and the other two young guys as a potential legit second line and screwing with the whole tank.

 

 

 

I really hope our goalie of the future is playing in Juniors/AHL and these guys secure the tank. It would make me feel better.

 

Which is why I am seriously onboard w/ Reinhart and Zadorov staying in juniors this year. What is left without those 2 will try but won't consistently win. I expect it would be an entertaining squad as well far more often than not.

 

Bring those 2 in next year along w/ Eichel & Hannifan (& McCabe too) and the team will have a legit shot at the playoffs and should just continue to get better for the next few years.

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So what's the guess on the new jersey numbers?

 

Moulson and Gorges both wore 26 previously but it makes sense to give that to Moulson since fans already have jerseys/tshirts and marketing purposes.

 

So Gorges could move to a new number (wore 6 and 7 previously but neither are available). Maybe he goes with 20? 76? 67? 62? 52? Hmmm...

 

Meszaros has worn 14 and 41 his whole career. 41 is the only available number of the two, so that seems easy.

 

Gionta's 21 is taken by Stafford. Wore 11 for Team USA but that's taken. 12 seems like a good choice there.

 

Cody McCormick can take his 8 back.

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I am also very concerned that there is not enough muscle on this team. I don't think you have 1 guy that could win a fight against a heavyweight, and only a few at middleweight. Georges and Stewart maybe can hold their own, but neither are fighters. Weber is game and gets his butt kicked. Girgensons has shied away from every single opportunity to make a stand for his teammates, which scares me a little.

 

I don't want another season of 20 page threads about headshots, and have to see people complain when a Boston or Philly sends your #2 pick into the stands because they know not 1 person can do a thing about it. The overall character is better than the Darcy days, but still missing the muscle.

 

Picking this up from one of the draft-day threads, I agree with this concern. I wonder if Murray is trying to find a player who has SOME skill and yet can be the Sabres' muscle if needed. Looking at the roster projections above, I'm not seeing an effective deterrent against the dirty hockey that seems to have taken hold in the top teams in the East. Perhaps my lack of familiarity with the new guys?

 

To add: ...or maybe Deslauriers is that kind of player who didn't quite let it come out last season. Or maybe Zadarov has some of that in him?

 

 

Edited by sizzlemeister
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Picking this up from one of the draft-day threads, I agree with this concern. I wonder if Murray is trying to find a player who has SOME skill and yet can be the Sabres' muscle if needed. Looking at the roster projections above, I'm not seeing an effective deterrent against the dirty hockey that seems to have taken hold in the top teams in the East. Perhaps my lack of familiarity with the new guys?

 

Agreed, we could use more muscle. Until the team is so talented, the other team doesn't have time to make the dirty play without it costing a goal more often than not (I think this is why the talented western teams are so much better than the east right now), we will need something to protect our developing skill guys. We need a tough guy with some skill who's willing to give the opposing center a shot to the nuts on the faceoff.

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