OT - 2014 NFL Draft

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I got an early start this year on looking at the combine film for the draft. I approach the draft the exact same way I do with a horse sale. I don't care how a guy played in college, where he is projected, his numbers on their own, or intangibles....UNTIL...I go through their drills and find guys based on build/conformation, fluidity/rigidity, efficiency of motion in all directions, physical technique, efficiency of strength, and confidence and alertness. My goal is to find the most balanced individuals, regardless of pure talent. Those are the guys that will have the best chance of making a roster or an impact in my opinion. If there is no film on a guy, I did not search anything down, so there could be viable options in guys who didn't participate.

 

There are some guys that are ok that I won't profile, and a lot that are ranked in the top few rounds that I don't care for and will not include. You can assume if it is someone ranked in the 1st - 3rd round and I don't have them here, they would be off my draft board. I will give *** rankings to guys I would love to target and who I feel are great value at where they are being projected, and + to guys who you might look at a little before average projections.

 

It's not a foolproof method, but it works very well for me and I feel given my eye, is probably 85% of what goes into finding an athlete. I don't have medical reports, police reports, and haven't traveled the country watching them or talking to acquaintances. I would also rather whiff by not taking a guy I don't believe in...like I did with Luke Kuechly.

 

 

 

 

OK...... first position....Offensive Line. My round projection is based on a standard to the position, not necessarily this specific draft. Last year was so weak in general for the entire draft, guys I was projecting 3rd and 4th round were going late 1st and 2nd. I think this draft is much deeper at quality for the OL.

 

 

Greg Robinson - T - Auburn - This guy is built perfectly for a mauling tackle. He is simply overpowering and has technique to go with that power. He covers ground smoothly on the move. While not perfectly fluid, for his size he is a mover. At worst you have a Pro Bowl right tackle who can blow guys away in the run game. I'd assume he is a top 5 guy.

 

** Taylor Lewan - T - Michigan - I was blown away by his balance and fluidity. He has a very athletic build and carries himself like a skill player. He can change direction on a dime. While not overpowering, he is so balanced and well built that to me, he is the best all-around tackle. While Robinson may be elite if he can get his hands on guys, Lewan should be able to keep up with any rusher at LT. He is an obvious target at #9 if there.

 

X - I wouldn't think about taking Jake Matthews in the top 10. He is rigid, not as balanced as either of the other 2, and lacks fluidity.

 

Cameron Fleming - T/G - Stanford - He is tall and played tackle, but is built like a guard with beef and stockiness. There looks to be untapped power because of his wide footing in his drive. He is very fluid at the hip though and one of the best lateral movers. Smart kid. Don't love him, but would be an ok depth guy who could swing. 3rd or 4th round.

 

Gabe Jackson - G - Miss St. - He is a bowling ball type of guard. He has good lateral movement and stays square to his man. Very confident and aware. While he looks more powerful, his technique probably saps some power potential as he gets off his heels. Would be ok in the 3rd, but no value and not enough upside.

 

*** Ryan Groy - G - Wisconsin - I just love this guy, especially compared to where he is being projected by most. He is an oak tree, big and wide, and is very nimble for his build. He is solid laterally, and fluid on the move. He projects confidence. The only downside I see is wide legs in his drive. While he is projected later in the draft, I would scoop him up all day in the 4th and even think about the 3rd. I get the feeling he is a bigger, more athletic Jerry Ostroski. Could probably start.

 

* Weston Richburg - C - Col St. - Stalky, but conformed well. Fluid in open space and good lateral. Doesn't seem overpowering but aware and focused. Probably not a target for the Bills given Wood, but quality. 3rd

 

** John Urschel - G - Penn St. - Love the way this guy is built for scrappy guard. Great balance in his push and ok lateral. Smarts off the charts and sportsmanship. Another who is projected low, but I would have no problem in the 4th round and even a reach. Just seems to be lock for a roster spot at least.

 

Jonotthan Harrison - C - Florida - A little undersized, but very athletic build. The thing that stands out is his forward push and great technique in driving. He is average otherwise. His build gives him a shot to put on a few pounds of fat with no problem and could be a good project for C/G. 5th or 6th round.

 

Justin Britt - T - Missouri - Tall but a little rigid up top. He has good fluid movement however. Doesn't power through but has natural strength. Would be a good project that could move up with coaching. 5th or 6th round.

 

 

Overall: While there are about 8-10 guys in the first 3 rounds I didn't see value in, this is a deep position. Lewan is a target at #9 to me and would allow Glenn to go to RT. I think you can draft your starting guard in the 3rd or 4th round, and would bet dollars to donuts Groy could be the perfect fit.

 

Edit: I like Zack Martin - T - Notre Dame....a poor man's Lewan. Wouldn't take him in the top half of the 1st, but 20-30 is fine.

Edited April 10, 2014 by Ghost of Dwight Drane

[rakish]

Ghost, what's the process like? You watching youtube, or do you have a product from the NFL that has a lot of video.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Ghost, what's the process like? You watching youtube, or do you have a product from the NFL that has a lot of video.

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/participants

 

I watch the videos without reading anything, then read after notes. They run ads every other player though...annoying.

[SwampD]

http://www.nfl.com/c...ne/participants

 

I watch the videos without reading anything, then read after notes. They run ads every other player though...annoying.

That Eric Ebron is a stud, huh? I want him. We haven't had a real TE for twenty years.

[Hoss]

 

That Eric Ebron is a stud, huh? I want him. We haven't had a real TE for twenty years.

 

TEs aren't top ten picks. Period. Maybe in a trade down, but id question it if he was taken at nine.

 

Getting ASF in the second round is the better option if no trade down happens. He reminds me of Tony Gonzalez.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

 

That Eric Ebron is a stud, huh? I want him. We haven't had a real TE for twenty years.

 

Funny you should say that. He didn't do the rest of the combine drills so there is only game tape. He is powerful and fluid, and built well. I agree with Dsteb though that you need to be really special to go at #9. After I look at the whole draft, maybe....

 

 

There is only 1 TE that intrigues me....

 

**AC Leonard - Tennessee St. - Great build and is thick in all the right places. Able to switch gears with amazing turn of foot. Fairly smooth mover and soft hands. Has the body to be adequate blocker although a tad short. Had off field issues. Very Intriguing. Keith McKellar type. Worth a flyer in round 5 for sure and can see someone go as high as a 4th because he is the most athletic next to Ebron.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

WR

 

I'm glad the Bills went and got Mike Williams, because while there is some talent, I wouldn't take anyone in the 1st but Watkins.

 

Sammy Watkins - Clemson - Not the perfect build, but big enough and very smooth. Solid hands as well. It's not so much his power, but his smoothness that makes him attractive. With such a gap between him and the rest, I can see why there is talk of being a top 3 pick....but I am not THAT wowed. Top 10, sure.

 

X - Mike Evans.....after seeing Evans and Matthews, I'm starting to think Johnny Manziel is Johnny Unitis. Evans is clunky and unbalanced in his long strides, not explosive, and seems disinterested. I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole in the top 20.

 

***Bruce Ellington - South Carolina - I really love this kid. He's short, but powerful. Gets off the line well and has burst out of his routes. No matter what route and where the ball is, he grabs it with confidence. Very aware on the field. He's fast enough to run some go routes, but I think would make a great slot guy who would burst open on those 5-12 yard routes and have the hands to bring it in. If he's there in the 3rd I love him, and he might be worth a reach in the 2nd

 

Odell Beckham - LSU - Another slightly undersized, but built well. He does everything well but nothing amazing. Very nice breakaway speed. Probably not a need for him and he is not value as listed going 30-50. Nice player though.

 

*Jordan Matthews - Vanderbilt - Tall, decent build, nice hands, and good field awareness. Not an elite athlete, but has size/skill/smarts. Probably a lock to make a roster. 3rd round

 

 

[qwksndmonster]

Great stuff as aways, Dwight. I'm wary of 1st round WRs too (Watkins will likely be gone),

[kishoph]

If Watkins is there at #5, I would work out something with the Raiders, the Raiders need help everywhere, so I think they'll be a team looking to trade down in order to get extra pick or two. Robinson and Lewan will be gone before #9 and I wouldn't trade up for either, the draft seems pretty deep for line help. I don't think the Bills would be interested in Ebron at #9 and I don't blame them. I'm not anti Evans, I think he'll be there at #9, but I do believe that we could move back a few spots and still get him. The Bills brass does not want the EJ pick to look like a bad one, so I believe that they are going to concentrate on getting him as many weapons as they can. We may not see a defensive player going to the Bills in the first couple of rounds, of course I would love if Mack dropped to them and they grabbed him.

[Eleven]

TEs aren't top ten picks. Period. Maybe in a trade down, but id question it if he was taken at nine.

 

Getting ASF in the second round is the better option if no trade down happens. He reminds me of Tony Gonzalez.

 

Tell that to the 49ers.

[SwampD]

TEs aren't top ten picks. Period. Maybe in a trade down, but id question it if he was taken at nine.

 

Getting ASF in the second round is the better option if no trade down happens. He reminds me of Tony Gonzalez.

I know that's conventional wisdom, I just don't buy it. I think it's a grossly undervalued position. I would think that all Bills fans that have had to watch New England TEs dismantle us year after year would feel the same.

[Brawndo]

I hope the Bills will target one of the big three playmakers Watkins, Evans or Ebron at nine overall. IMO Watkins or Evans would be worth trading up for. If the Bills think Ebron is a game changing TE, they should pull the trigger. Swamp's analysis nailed it.

[Hoss]

Tell that to the 49ers.

 

Congratulations, you found one example. There's only one other example since 1996... Kellen Winslow Jr. by the Browns.

 

Vernon Davis was a complete athletic freak. On another level above what Ebron is. People compare Ebron to Davis, but he's just not the athletic freak that Davis was. Nor is he the type that Winslow is. Tight ends are middle of the first or later.

[Eleven]

Congratulations, you found one example. There's only one other example since 1996... Kellen Winslow Jr. by the Browns.

 

Vernon Davis was a complete athletic freak. On another level above what Ebron is. People compare Ebron to Davis, but he's just not the athletic freak that Davis was. Nor is he the type that Winslow is. Tight ends are middle of the first or later.

 

That's why I usually don't write or speak in absolutes.

[Hoss]

 

I know that's conventional wisdom, I just don't buy it. I think it's a grossly undervalued position. I would think that all Bills fans that have had to watch New England TEs dismantle us year after year would feel the same.

 

I agree with you, but it has to be a very special talent. Ebron isn't special. Better than many but not special.

 

Gronk was a 2nd round pick. Graham a 3rd.

[Johnny DangerFace]

 

 

That's why I usually don't write or speak in absolutes.

 

I just wanted to point out how much I like this sentence! Well said

[Hoss]

That's why I usually don't write or speak in absolutes.

 

I NEVER speak in absolutes. Ever.

[MattPie]

I NEVER speak in absolutes. Ever.

 

:w00t:

[Hoss]

:w00t:

 

:flirt:

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I don't know if this is coincidence or by plan, but by getting Spikes and Mike Williams, and not going after a name offensive lineman, the Bills made the right play going into the draft.

 

The linebackers are just a bunch of bodies to me in watching the tape. They almost all give the same underwhelming impression one way or another. There were only 3 guys that stood out.

 

Khalil Mack - Buffalo - When you watch his drills....he doesn't look like he is moving fast or putting in much effort, then the times come in. He just covers so much ground with his big strides. He is great moving upfield, good lateral, but weak in the backpedal. He is built more like a DE. I don't come away with the WOW impression I did when I saw a guy like Von Miller, but he is 1 of the 2 best linebackers and given what I have seen so far, worth a top 10 pick.

 

**Ryan Shazier - Ohio St. - If there is 1 guy I have seen so far that a team is going to trade up and "reach" for, it is this guy. He is a freak. If he was 2 inches taller and 15 pounds heavier, you'd have a top 5 pick. He is built beautifully but a little light. He moves smooth and corners well. I see him listed as late 1st, early 2nd, but I can't see how he makes it past 20. If the Bills are confounded at 9, nothing wrong with trading down to 12-15 and putting this guy opposite Kiko.

 

Chris Borland - Wisconsin - He is undersized but built like a fire hydrant. While he isn't fast, he is smooth in changing direction and has awareness. Would probably be a special teams demon. 3rd round

 

 

 

 

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

On the QB's.....I assume the Bills will not be in the market early. Bortles looks the most intriguing of the big 4.

 

One guy that stood out from the rest of the pack...

 

*Logan Thomas - VTech - This guy looks like a 1st round pick. Tall, built, fast, confident in his mechanics (at least in a drill). He throws a tight and powerful ball short to mid range, and is throwing down. If he runs, he is built like a tight end...which he was projected to be. It sounds like he was mediocre the past few years, but this guy looks sooo good. I would think he goes by the 3rd or 4th round.

[Eleven]

On the QB's.....I assume the Bills will not be in the market early. Bortles looks the most intriguing of the big 4.

 

One guy that stood out from the rest of the pack...

 

*Logan Thomas - VTech - This guy looks like a 1st round pick. Tall, built, fast, confident in his mechanics (at least in a drill). He throws a tight and powerful ball short to mid range, and is throwing down. If he runs, he is built like a tight end...which he was projected to be. It sounds like he was mediocre the past few years, but this guy looks sooo good. I would think he goes by the 3rd or 4th round.

 

The Bills should draft a QB, but not before the 5th round. I guess if this guy is available in the 4th, maybe I wouldn't be mad.

[LGR4GM]

The Bills should draft a QB, but not before the 5th round. I guess if this guy is available in the 4th, maybe I wouldn't be mad.

Aaron Murray would be a solid choice in round 5-6 but not someone I would expect ppl to like or for Buffalo to target.

[26CornerBlitz]

Aaron Murray would be a solid choice in round 5-6 but not someone I would expect ppl to like or for Buffalo to target.

 

Target him for the GF Kacie McDonnell if nothing else

[Hoss]

Logan Thomas should be good but he just isn't. He will look good in drills but he just doesn't process the game live.