off topic -Derby 2014

[plenzmd1]

Mr Ghost. I am very late to the game again this year, but will be watching and putting a few scheckles on the Wood and SA Derby today.

 

Any body you like in these races? I always enjoy your analysis, anything you can offer would be greatly appreciated..

[plenzmd1]

Wow, looks like we have a prohibitive favorite for the Derby in California Chrome. That horse made it look easy today, hand ride the whole way. I hate chalk, but gunna be hard to bet against him first Saturday in May.

 

BTW, GoDD did PM me with a great tip in the race after the SA Derby. Horse that paid almost $13 to place. We need to get GoDD to give us a Derby Day breakdown, the man knows his ponies!

Edited April 6, 2014 by plenzmd1

[Andrew Amerk]

Wow, looks like we have a prohibitive favorite for the Derby in California Chrome. That horse made it look easy today, hand ride the whole way. I hate chalk, but gunna be hard to bet against him first Saturday in May.

 

BTW, GoDD did PM me with a great tip in the race after the SA Derby. Horse that paid almost $13 to place. We need to get GoDD to give us a Derby Day breakdown, the man knows his ponies!

 

[Weave]

Wow, looks like we have a prohibitive favorite for the Derby in California Chrome. That horse made it look easy today, hand ride the whole way. I hate chalk, but gunna be hard to bet against him first Saturday in May.

 

BTW, GoDD did PM me with a great tip in the race after the SA Derby. Horse that paid almost $13 to place. We need to get GoDD to give us a Derby Day breakdown, the man knows his ponies!

 

Dwight takes alot of crap here. Wouldn't surprise me if his nuggets of knowledge re: horses aren't going to be quite so prevalent.

[darksabre]

 

 

Dwight takes alot of crap here. Wouldn't surprise me if his nuggets of knowledge re: horses aren't going to be quite so prevalent.

 

I dunno, our Derby/Triple Crown thread tends to be a nice break from the Sabres every year. I'm looking forward to it.

[TrueBlueGED]

Dwight takes alot of crap here. Wouldn't surprise me if his nuggets of knowledge re: horses aren't going to be quite so prevalent.

 

Aside from the Penn State stuff, I've never really viewed any of it as anything other than good back and forth that a forum should produce.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

If I have time, I enjoy breaking down the races. I wasn't thrilled going into yesterday, and really am not in general this year. Usually when I see the top 3 year olds developing, I can find 3 or 4 I really like and 1 I love. There's one I sort of like, and that's Tapiture. I still have to watch the Wood as I thought Social Inclusion would be a winner. The fact they didn't sell him before the race is a red flag he may not vet.

 

There is zero chance I bet California Chrome in the Derby. He's a California bred who looks on paper more fit for a mile on turf, has only run on synthetics and Santa Anita, which is not a classic dirt track, and jumped up 10-12 lengths his past 2 races......he looked great yesterday, but my guess is he finishes closer to 10th than 1st in the Derby. Don't let me dissuade anyone, but I will not be betting him.

 

 

 

 

[LastPommerFan]

If I have time, I enjoy breaking down the races. I wasn't thrilled going into yesterday, and really am not in general this year. Usually when I see the top 3 year olds developing, I can find 3 or 4 I really like and 1 I love. There's one I sort of like, and that's Tapiture. I still have to watch the Wood as I thought Social Inclusion would be a winner. The fact they didn't sell him before the race is a red flag he may not vet.

 

There is zero chance I bet California Chrome in the Derby. He's a California bred who looks on paper more fit for a mile on turf, has only run on synthetics and Santa Anita, which is not a classic dirt track, and jumped up 10-12 lengths his past 2 races......he looked great yesterday, but my guess is he finishes closer to 10th than 1st in the Derby. Don't let me dissuade anyone, but I will not be betting him.

 

Listening to experts explain things from their realm is my favorite. Great breakdown.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I still don't know what I am going to do for the Derby. I liked Tapiture early on, but he has backed up last 2 races. I'm looking and looking, and having a hard time finding anything exciting.

 

I dismissed California Chrome, and still do not think he will win, but there is nothing out there. I will include him in the bottom of a super or maybe a tri, but he is a miler in my opinion.

 

I am going to closely follow: Wicked Strong, Ride On Curlin, Harry's Holiday, Hoppertunity, Tapiture, and California Chrome. Good stuff and bad stuff on all.

 

The Oaks is a different story. For some reason, I can spot a top filly and fall in love easier than a colt. I think My Miss Sophia is going to earn a few million dollars on the track if she can stay healthy. I saw her come out her 1st race and my jaw dropped. If Todd Pletcher didn't train her, I would be making calls for someone to chase her down. I don't think she WANTS to run 1 1/8 miles in the Oaks. I think she will be amazing at 7 furlongs to a mile. But she is just so classy and bright that I have to think she can beat the favorite in Untapable. Her only downside is that she is by Unbridled's Song....who is one of the worst sires at gifting prolonged health. I think My Miss Sophia can sweep through the Grade 1's this spring and summer....Oaks, Acorn, Test, even the Prioress at 6f. I just love her.

 

That being said, the fillies are a much better looking group than the males. Untapable deserves to be the favorite. Fashion Plate is a game little girl and could win this as well. There are 5 other fillies who are very nice....really, just so much better a group.

 

When the entries come out in a week I will go through the card. Just my early thoughts.

[josie]

I dunno, our Derby/Triple Crown thread tends to be a nice break from the Sabres every year. I'm looking forward to it.

I'm always open to these threads. Nice to talk horses with other people. Since the last Triple Crown season, I've worked with several more ex-racehorses. Nothing elite, of course (we did have one who was the mother of a few decently successful racers I guess, i can't remember details), and they're in bad shape when I get them, but their stories/temperaments are vastly different from the usual rescues. It's been interesting learning more about that industry.

[Weave]

I'm always open to these threads. Nice to talk horses with other people. Since the last Triple Crown season, I've worked with several more ex-racehorses. Nothing elite, of course (we did have one who was the mother of a few decently successful racers I guess, i can't remember details), and they're in bad shape when I get them, but their stories/temperaments are vastly different from the usual rescues. It's been interesting learning more about that industry.

 

I'm curious to hear how their temperament is different.

[josie]

I'm curious to hear how their temperament is different.

From what I've experienced, a lot is simply because they're Thoroughbreds or Standardbreds- which means they're livelier, moodier, and in some cases, more aggressive. But we get TBs and SBs that aren't racers as well, and the difference I've noticed between those who have and haven't (check the inner lip for a tattoo, some have freezebranded numbers on their necks or haunches) is that those who did have track time are more skittish and a lot more difficult to handle (several were face-shy, which I wonder if it was any relation to racing), while also exhibiting nervous bad behaviours, like cribbing or pawing. And they HATE being in a stall/closed up. We've had issues trailering some of them, too. Livewires.

 

Now, I can't say that's always true- each horse is a completely different personality and has an entirely different past. Some have been abused, others were raced, didn't perform well, and were bought by well meaning owners who simply couldn't care for them anymore, hence they ended up at the rescue for re-adoption. Remember, for me to work with them, it's often a worse case scenario, sometimes involving kill pens and meat auctions. But most of our sad cases act that way- sad. Head hung, low energy- I have yet to work with a low energy/easy going racer.

 

One of the odder things I learned about one TB ex racer in particular who'd had a decent track record at Finger Lakes (Sizzlin' Samantha was her name, her retirement name was Scarlett) was whoever had worked with her in the past only cleaned/worked on her hooves from one side because it was "quicker". She hated having anyone come on the other side.

 

I haven't been to a track, so I'm not really familiar with how things work there, but some of my co volunteers attend/have worked at tracks and can tell you when a horse has been treated well or not or drugged up or pushed upon one day of working with them. Most the racers we get competed at Finger Lakes or somewhere in Canada. We get them from all over the eastern seaboard, as well.

I'm sure the participants in the higher stakes races are treated very very well- studs live a life of leisure for sure. I'd love to see one of those races. The money... oh man, the money goes so far for those animals.

 

Sorry that turned into a book- I could babble about this stuff for days. Each one of those horses that comes through our rescue is like a kid to me, and I've learned/am learning so much. Poor d4rk has to listen to it every Saturday.

[Weave]

Cool. Thanks for that.

[Eleven]

I'm going to miss my handicapping assistant this year.

 

Josie--training thoroughbred racers was her career for over a decade. She always said that North American ethical standards for treating horses was very low compared to the rest of the world (particularly New Zealand, where she spent about half of that career). Lots of substances are legal here but not overseas, so I don't doubt that you get your share of former racers who are tough to handle.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I'm glad you're still helping Jo. Have you ever been involved with a group that isn't focused on taking on "the worst of the worst" cases? With what you are doing, you are sort of like a social worker working for Child Protective Services. There are kids that are abused, bounce from foster family to foster house, mental issues that aren't treated....I could see where if that is all you saw, you would think that nobody should be allowed to have children.

 

There are very few horses that win big money. The industry has made it a huge point the past decade to limit breeding, have groups in place to prepare horses for their 2nd career right off the track as opposed to waiting until it was a hopeless case, and the Jockey Club has now made services free to the public, such as identifying a horse through it's tattoo or to include with breeding papers instructions from previous owners that they will take the horse from any current owner if they no longer want it. In 2005, there were 38,000 foals. It has decreased every year since and is down to 23,000. Some of that has to do with the economy, but the industry has also limited lower level races compared to the past and has discouraged huge supplements to purses for inferior horses. More casinos also have taken away the gravy train some tracks enjoyed a decade ago...so lower revenue equals less money for crappier races...equals less temptation for someone to run a hurt horse. It takes time to get the system at equilibrium, but it's getting there.

 

As for the fallacy by some that thoroughbred owners are all millionaires....the large majority aren't anywhere close.

 

Last year, 59.376 horses ran in a race in North America

 

20 earned $1 million or more

 

200 earned $300,000 or more

 

1500 earned $100,000 or more

 

The average racehorse at a large track with an average trainer and vets costs $35,000 - $50,000 per year to keep in training

 

At a low level track, you could get my for $20,000

 

The top trainer in the game costs $80,000+

 

90% of horse owners LOSE money.

 

It is really a game of passion or a livelihood for most. The average person just tunes into the Kentucky Derby and thinks it's all some sort of Hollywood bacchanalia. They don't see the average guy maxing out his credit cards so the barn help gets paid, and the hay truck keeps coming, and the horse has everything he needs. Will some people not do right by the horse in that situation or be tempted to push it too far to get out of a hole? Certainly. But the thing about how the industry is structured attempts to prevent that. The claiming system makes it so that if you don't run your horse where it belongs, you will not make any money. An ECHL horse has no shot at an NHL level, let alone All-Star team. If you do something to get the horse out there for "just this race", you are going to lose more money the next 6 months when it can't run than you make for winning that race. THESE are the situations that need to be flushed out...the trainers that drug horses that are beyond typical wear and tear or are more than likely to have a catastrophic injury occur.....the good horsepeople know who they are and it makes them sick.

 

I cringe when I hear your stories. I know that odds are a horse I was associated with ended up in a bad situation, and if you are human, you feel some guilt. We always put one in our care into the best home possible, and I retired every horse that either wasn't good enough for anything but the bottom level, or who developed something medical that was beyond reasonable. I would like to think most owners feel the same way. I know they all don't....

 

 

[josie]

I'm glad you're still helping Jo. Have you ever been involved with a group that isn't focused on taking on "the worst of the worst" cases? With what you are doing, you are sort of like a social worker working for Child Protective Services. There are kids that are abused, bounce from foster family to foster house, mental issues that aren't treated....I could see where if that is all you saw, you would think that nobody should be allowed to have children.

 

There are very few horses that win big money. The industry has made it a huge point the past decade to limit breeding, have groups in place to prepare horses for their 2nd career right off the track as opposed to waiting until it was a hopeless case, and the Jockey Club has now made services free to the public, such as identifying a horse through it's tattoo or to include with breeding papers instructions from previous owners that they will take the horse from any current owner if they no longer want it. In 2005, there were 38,000 foals. It has decreased every year since and is down to 23,000. Some of that has to do with the economy, but the industry has also limited lower level races compared to the past and has discouraged huge supplements to purses for inferior horses. More casinos also have taken away the gravy train some tracks enjoyed a decade ago...so lower revenue equals less money for crappier races...equals less temptation for someone to run a hurt horse. It takes time to get the system at equilibrium, but it's getting there.

 

As for the fallacy by some that thoroughbred owners are all millionaires....the large majority aren't anywhere close.

 

Last year, 59.376 horses ran in a race in North America

 

20 earned $1 million or more

 

200 earned $300,000 or more

 

1500 earned $100,000 or more

 

The average racehorse at a large track with an average trainer and vets costs $35,000 - $50,000 per year to keep in training

 

At a low level track, you could get my for $20,000

 

The top trainer in the game costs $80,000+

 

90% of horse owners LOSE money.

 

It is really a game of passion or a livelihood for most. The average person just tunes into the Kentucky Derby and thinks it's all some sort of Hollywood bacchanalia. They don't see the average guy maxing out his credit cards so the barn help gets paid, and the hay truck keeps coming, and the horse has everything he needs. Will some people not do right by the horse in that situation or be tempted to push it too far to get out of a hole? Certainly. But the thing about how the industry is structured attempts to prevent that. The claiming system makes it so that if you don't run your horse where it belongs, you will not make any money. An ECHL horse has no shot at an NHL level, let alone All-Star team. If you do something to get the horse out there for "just this race", you are going to lose more money the next 6 months when it can't run than you make for winning that race. THESE are the situations that need to be flushed out...the trainers that drug horses that are beyond typical wear and tear or are more than likely to have a catastrophic injury occur.....the good horsepeople know who they are and it makes them sick.

 

I cringe when I hear your stories. I know that odds are a horse I was associated with ended up in a bad situation, and if you are human, you feel some guilt. We always put one in our care into the best home possible, and I retired every horse that either wasn't good enough for anything but the bottom level, or who developed something medical that was beyond reasonable. I would like to think most owners feel the same way. I know they all don't....

 

I apologize if it seems I painted with a broad brush- I realize from my post that I may come across as pessimistic. I definitely know that the good owners of all breeds and racers and racetrack owners highly outweigh the bad. I work with the heart breakers, and though I will admit it has made me cast a (unfair) critical light and attitude towards smaller tracks, I am fully aware that the big tracks are owned, managed, staffed and used by passionate, responsible people and talented, healthy animals. I'm also very aware of the extreme costs of ownership, especially for racers. It's a prohibitive thing, and a lot of times the passion takes over the common sense of financial ability.

 

I would love to work with the higher level someday, or own my own stable/rescue- I just have never found an opening. I only have experience riding western and of all things, cossack, and generally lack knowledge about the operations of big, clean, efficient stables. I have good horse sense and can clean, tack, train and groom but I never got any formal experience that I feel you need to work at those places.

 

We do a lot with the little we've got, and I find a lot of heart/therapy/healing for myself through what I do. Later this fall I hope to volunteer at a mounted police seminar. I'm excited to be around well groomed/trained horses. I haven't ridden in years now, either, which is a shame.

 

I love the Derby, I love seeing the pinnacle of the sport, and I'm glad there's good people in the organization. The pound of bad always catches attention over the ton of good. I'm just there to help anyone who falls through the cracks :)

Edited April 24, 2014 by Josie914

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

 

 

I apologize if it seems I painted with a broad brush- I realize from my post that I may come across as pessimistic. I definitely know that the good owners of all breeds and racers and racetrack owners highly outweigh the bad. I work with the heart breakers, and though I will admit it has made me cast a (unfair) critical light and attitude towards smaller tracks, I am fully aware that the big tracks are owned, managed, staffed and used by passionate, responsible people and talented, healthy animals. I'm also very aware of the extreme costs of ownership, especially for racers. It's a prohibitive thing, and a lot of times the passion takes over the common sense of financial ability.

 

I would love to work with the higher level someday, or own my own stable/rescue- I just have never found an opening. I only have experience riding western and of all things, cossack, and generally lack knowledge about the operations of big, clean, efficient stables. I have good horse sense and can clean, tack, train and groom but I never got any formal experience that I feel you need to work at those places.

 

We do a lot with the little we've got, and I find a lot of heart/therapy/healing for myself through what I do. Later this fall I hope to volunteer at a mounted police seminar. I'm excited to be around well groomed/trained horses. I haven't ridden in years now, either, which is a shame.

 

I love the Derby, I love seeing the pinnacle of the sport, and I'm glad there's good people in the organization. The pound of bad always catches attention over the ton of good. I'm just there to help anyone who falls through the cracks :)

 

I'm glad you understand. I think it's great you enjoy working with them. When a horse goes bad because of poor treatment, it is very difficult to get them back. I have always adopted stray dogs or ones from the city pound, and even the ones with issues come around with love. A 1200 pound horse is more difficult. The mare Samantha you talked of....my guess is she was protecting something, or had only recently had neglect. If you pull up her racing record, even though she was at a low level, the same trainer hit the board with her 11 of 17 races. She then had a bad race and never was the same. She ended up with another trainer/owner her last 2 races. That's the problem. She is a very pretty filly and her mom ran 81 times and hit the board 30, so it's not surprising she did well. Something went bad....she was running in $5,000 claiming races....and someone probably took a small check for her.

 

Thoroughbreds in general are high strung. Standardbreds are much easier and what most of the police use.

 

I am not a fan of the small tracks myself. Finger Lakes I was at once when we ran a horse. The backside was like Beirut. There were good people back there, but the industry needs to work together to give a comfortable environment and solid resources.

 

Don't mean to sound like an apologist. The sport has it's kinks. They really are bred to compete though and most of them love it. It's up to the humans to know which ones need a rest from battle.

[plenzmd1]

Thanks Josie and GoDD for an interesting thread. Dwight, i look forward to your card analysis sometime next week!

 

My dad first took me to the Fort when i was in 8th grade, been a fan ever sense. Must say, once my first was born in 99, the days of going to the track at least twice a week ended, and i am lucky to make it to even an OTB once every 6 months now.

 

Yes i have a Twinspires account, but just not the same . Hated going to an OTB instead of the track for a long time, maybe i will grow to like Twinspires..

 

Eleven, God Bless.

[josie]

I'm glad you understand. I think it's great you enjoy working with them. When a horse goes bad because of poor treatment, it is very difficult to get them back. I have always adopted stray dogs or ones from the city pound, and even the ones with issues come around with love. A 1200 pound horse is more difficult. The mare Samantha you talked of....my guess is she was protecting something, or had only recently had neglect. If you pull up her racing record, even though she was at a low level, the same trainer hit the board with her 11 of 17 races. She then had a bad race and never was the same. She ended up with another trainer/owner her last 2 races. That's the problem. She is a very pretty filly and her mom ran 81 times and hit the board 30, so it's not surprising she did well. Something went bad....she was running in $5,000 claiming races....and someone probably took a small check for her.

 

Thoroughbreds in general are high strung. Standardbreds are much easier and what most of the police use.

 

I am not a fan of the small tracks myself. Finger Lakes I was at once when we ran a horse. The backside was like Beirut. There were good people back there, but the industry needs to work together to give a comfortable environment and solid resources.

 

Don't mean to sound like an apologist. The sport has it's kinks. They really are bred to compete though and most of them love it. It's up to the humans to know which ones need a rest from battle.

I'll tell you something I just remembered about Samantha. After a while, a lot of the stories blend together and I can't remember who came from where, especially when they come in groups or they stay at the rescue for a rather long time (as she did). After racing, she ended up at a farm that the police/humane society had to raid. She had been chained to a tree with no shelter during this winter, and she'd gotten barbed wire fencing wrapped around her pastern/was covered in scratches/had rainrot. Her and the others we got from this situation were very very thin. The thing that made me wonder about her past treatment was we knew these people hadn't had her TOO incredibly long, but she had scarring on her face that was healed that would have predated the farm she ended up on. She has since been happily adopted by a very capable lady who loves spirited TBs.

 

I myself feel guilt occasionally- I rode at a barn throughout my time at RIT as a wellness course (which d4rk took to meet me, but that's another story). Loved everyone there, never saw a hint of neglect/abuse, occasionally came out during the week to observe/assist veterinary procedures. We got a horse at the rescue who was one of the worst cases I'd ever seen. Didn't recognize the name. Long story short, this 29 year old mare was one of the horses from the stable I rode at. They'd put her up for auction, fortune did not fall her way, and she ended up in our hands. I didn't know it was her until 2 weeks after she'd been readopted.

I guess there'd been some fighting involved with her. I felt awful- I'd had such high respect for the barn, but I also knew they'd been hurting for funding, so I understood why they took Prima to auction. At the same time, they still had a good 30 horses, and Prima was gentle/perfect for girl scouts/young and new riders. I don't know. It's really a complicated business.

 

A quick aside- we have a standardbred right now with a freeze brand on her from racing- oh my god, she's the most aggressive horse I've ever worked with. I think she's ill. I know she's in heat. But I bet she has a UTI or something. Two of us went out to bring her and the mare she was with who she won't let eat and won't let us get near (a very mild mannered TB, opposite day in this paddock), and she kept rushing us. Head down, full sprint, stopping a foot shy of bulling us down. We stood our ground long enough to give her the message she wasn't going to win by being a bully, but holy crap. She does not appreciate cross ties either.

We have an open house tomorrow for the ASPCA's Help a Horse Day- I hope she's on some better behaviour!

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Derby Draw today......

 

Looked at the Oaks card and have some thoughts. Trying to key My Miss Sophia, but not a lot in the races around her except favorites. I may even single her in a Pick6 that won't be expensive.

 

Still don't like the Derby. Going to bet more on a 5 furlong turf sprint Friday.......

[millbank]

The Kentucky Derby goes off this Saturday , at this time California Chrome at 5/2 is the clear betting favorite and pick of horse people. For no other reason like the name Wicked Strong to give Chrome a run.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses

 

Who do you pick...

[freester]

Hoppertunity was just scratched. Mike Smith has no one to ride.

[darksabre]

I'll post up later. I read through the lineup the other night and I think I know who I want and why.

 

Also, in before the merge.

[plenzmd1]

Derby Draw today......

 

Looked at the Oaks card and have some thoughts. Trying to key My Miss Sophia, but not a lot in the races around her except favorites. I may even single her in a Pick6 that won't be expensive.

 

Still don't like the Derby. Going to bet more on a 5 furlong turf sprint Friday.......

 

Well...i like 5 furlong turf sprints....dont be holding out now

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

 

 

Well...i like 5 furlong turf sprints....dont be holding out now

 

OK...here we go....

 

Here are my Oaks day picks. Race 1 at 10:30 AM.......

 

Not sure how to go here....I want to differentiate between love/like/ok..... I guess I will use a bankroll of $250 and assume you have to put all bets in before work and hope it works out. Odds are my expected odds, not the morning line.

 

Race 1) #4 Irish Lute (2-1) Going to use in a pick 3 as there is no value in small field. Nice horse coming off layoff and loves track. Great sprint pedigree.

 

$1 Pick3 4/2,3/2,3,11 $6 Total

 

Race 2) Again...no value without looking at the actual horse at post time. I am using the 3 and 2 so maybe a $1 exacta box for action

 

$1 ExB 2-3 $2 Total

 

Race 3) #3 Flipcup (4-1) - #2 Tiz Windy (3-1) - #11 Run Hide My Girl (12-1)....... Flipcup nice NY horse. Pedigree says should get better with age and little more distance. First time on true dirt course. Tiz Windy beat a horse nicely who came 2nd to My Miss Sophia who is my Oaks pick. Throwing out favorite as should be overbet on big day.

 

$10 win 3

$2 ExB 2-3

$.50 TriBx 2-3-11 $17 Total

 

Race 4) #5 City Connect (6-1) - #2 Song to You (7-2)......like the pedigree and the fact that has run on dirt last 6 for a cold trainer...so could get 10-1. Don't love it, but worth the exacta.

 

$5 Win 5

$2 ExB 5-2 $9 Total

 

Race 5) Pass

 

Race 6) This is the one we go for it.....

 

#5 Scatman (6-1) - #4 Marchman (4-1) - #6 Positive Side......Scatman is 12-1 on the morning line, which is an overlay. Has only run 2 times on turf and clunked....but is ALL TURF in his pedigree. 1st time with new trainer and I think this is great spot. Marchman was long odds but did great last few races. He is 4 years old and can still improve nicely. Big exacta play. Positive Side ran right with Marchman and belongs.

 

$25 Win 5

$10 Place 5

$5 Exacta Box 5-4

$1 Tri Box 5-4-6 $51 Total

 

Race 7) #3 Creative Spirit (4-1) #6 Annoy (12-1)....Really pretty filly who romped last time. Dirt should be fine. Annoy should move up on pedigree.

 

$15 Win 3

$2 Exacta Box 3-6 $19 Total

 

Race 8) 4-7-10....3 BOMB!......#3 Designer Legs is a beautiful filly that hasn't progressed since early success. #4 Our Amazing Rose has everything right here, but will be 5-2.

 

$2 Win-Place-Show 3

$1 ExB 3-4

$1 TriKey 4/3,7,10 $14 Total

 

Bet the 4 for a safe wager.

 

Race 9) #1 Miss Machaiavelli (6-1) - #5 Little Journey (8-1).....Love the pedigree and she hasn't run in 6 months but put up numbers close enough at 2..and now is 3. The 5 is a reach, but trainer gets imports to run well.

 

$15 Win 1

$5 Place 1

$2 ExB 1-5

$.50 Pick4 1,5/2/11/2,7,8,10,11... $29 Total

 

Race 10) #2 Will Take Charge (4-5)........No value, but biggest threat scratched. Love this horse over time but is a tick off lately. Will use in multi bets.

 

$1 Pick3 2/11/2,7,8,10,11

$5 Pick3 2/11/2.... $10 Total

 

Race 11) KENTUCKY OAKS.......#11 My Miss Sophia (7-2) - #7 Fashion Plate (6-1) - #4 Rosiland - #13 Untapable......Untapable is a big deserving favorite, but she came on recently for a trainer known to get them going early. Also not the prettiest of specimen for a trainer that thrives with young fillies. I am going with My Miss Sophia. I LOVE her in general, although think her best is a little shorter than this, but she just ran huge at same distance. Pletcher has been really gearing her for this as she is tucked up and lost a little weight. I hope he is right. She is just a classy girl. Fashion Plate is a game girl. Good pedigree but not a big filly. She has "compete". I can see her going near the front and running her eyeballs out. Rosiland is a beauty too and probably more geared for this distance. Not the fastest, not the most talented, but consistently solid.

 

There are chances to bet the Oaks/Derby double....so if you like Untapable, more value hooking her up with your Derby pick. Also a pick 3 with Woodford race on Saturday and Derby.

 

$30 Win 11

$5 Exacta 11-7

$2 Exacta 7-11

$1 TriKey 11/7,4,13

$1 Super 11/7,4,13

$5 Regular Double 11/2

$10 DerbyDouble 11/????

 

$64 Total

 

Race 12) #2 Crack Your Whip (8-1) - #8 Taketheodds (5-1)..............Horse ran solid last year and is bred for the dirt with speed underneath. Many viable choices however.

 

$10 Win 2

$2 Exacta 2-8.... $14 Total

 

 

Come in with a total of $235 bet.

 

I will go over the Derby tomorrow, but I really have zero clue.

 

Good luck....don't bet stupid.....just what you can lose.