shrader Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 Really? Because I think it was pretty smart of Green Bay to let Rodgers hold a clipboard for a couple of years. And I also think that part of the reason SD drafted Rivers is because Brees was forced to play immediately; he, too, would have benefited from some sideline time. By the time he was ready, SD was impatient. Look who's laughing now. There's obviously the occasional case where a guy is able to sit, but then again, not too many teams the all time leader in career passing yards on their roster when they draft a QB in the first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 There's obviously the occasional case where a guy is able to sit, but then again, not too many teams the all time leader in career passing yards on their roster when they draft a QB in the first round. It was smart planning. The Bills actually did that once, when they drafted Collins. He just didn't work out and it's been a revolving door since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 It was smart planning. The Bills actually did that once, when they drafted Collins. He just didn't work out and it's been a revolving door since. So what about the far more common scenario where a team doesn't have a hall of fame QB on its roster and needs to draft someone? This whole idea of using an extreme situation as the standard for how to get things done, it doesn't work well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 I do not believe a team with a top-5 defense can completely bottom out in that fashion. At the very least, I'd put the chances at much lower than 40%. This also means that if EJ shows substantial improvement, this is a fringe playoff team. I think the team is 7-9 if EJ gives them the exact same thing he did last year, except for 16 games instead of 10. Interesting theorem. We'll see if there's proof to bear it out. The front 4 might be a top-5 unit on paper, but I would be (pleasantly) surprised if this D wound up as a top-5 unit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 So what about the far more common scenario where a team doesn't have a hall of fame QB on its roster and needs to draft someone? This whole idea of using an extreme situation as the standard for how to get things done, it doesn't work well. Still let the guy hold a clipboard for a year. This was the Bills' original plan for EJ. They weren't in "win now" mode last fall. Teams like Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Minnesota, with virtually no chance of making the playoffs, would be smart to sit their rookies. Oakland is making a mistake by starting Carr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 Interesting theorem. We'll see if there's proof to bear it out. The front 4 might be a top-5 unit on paper, but I would be (pleasantly) surprised if this D wound up as a top-5 unit. Well, Football Outsiders (conveniently linked to in the article Freeman shared) had them #4 overall last year and #2 against the pass. I expect the pass D to take a hit without Byrd and Alonso, but the run D to take a step forward with Spikes and the scheme change. I'd be surprised if they weren't top-10 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 Well, Football Outsiders (conveniently linked to in the article Freeman shared) had them #4 overall last year and #2 against the pass. I expect the pass D to take a hit without Byrd and Alonso, but the run D to take a step forward with Spikes and the scheme change. I'd be surprised if they weren't top-10 at least. now don't go all #fancystats on me. they were bottom half/bottom third in points allowed, and bottom of the barrel against the run. that ain't a #4 overall D in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 (edited) now don't go all #fancystats on me. they were bottom half/bottom third in points allowed, and bottom of the barrel against the run. that ain't a #4 overall D in my book. Someone please look at opponents' field positions at the beginnings of drives. Edited September 2, 2014 by Eleven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 Orton's deal is two years, $11M. The report this morning that players are giving up on Manuel and that he is on a short leash makes me feel like they're preparing for the worst on Manuel. They have Orton on a two-year deal so he can come in if Manuel continues to fail and then start Orton (unless EJ steals the job back) after drafting a second (or first in a trade up) round QB to learn behind Orton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 Someone please look at opponents' field positions at the beginnings of drives. Yeah, yeah - I hear you. Orton's deal is two years, $11M. The report this morning that players are giving up on Manuel and that he is on a short leash makes me feel like they're preparing for the worst on Manuel. They have Orton on a two-year deal so he can come in if Manuel continues to fail and then start Orton (unless EJ steals the job back) after drafting a second (or first in a trade up) round QB to learn behind Orton. 2 year deal, but the second is at Orton's option -- is what I heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampD Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 I'm really looking forward to Sunday. Slingbox ready to go. Chili ingredients all purchased. Beer. Family coming in. Friends coming over. All that's left is to take the leaf blower and spruce up the Polish Porch and I am ready for fall. Don't even care if we lose. It's going to be a great day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 2 year deal, but the second is at Orton's option -- is what I heard. At $5.5M I don't see him turning it down unless he can get a starting job elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 now don't go all #fancystats on me. they were bottom half/bottom third in points allowed, and bottom of the barrel against the run. that ain't a #4 overall D in my book. Someone please look at opponents' field positions at the beginnings of drives. Look, 11 likes fancystats and he doesn't even know it! (or maybe he does, who am I to say?) Short version: DVOA (the reference in the article) is a measure built on per-play data that takes into account a bunch of contextual factors which traditional statistics (yards and points) completely and totally miss. Long version can be found here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 Look, 11 likes fancystats and he doesn't even know it! (or maybe he does, who am I to say?) Short version: DVOA (the reference in the article) is a measure built on per-play data that takes into account a bunch of contextual factors which traditional statistics (yards and points) completely and totally miss. Long version can be found here: http://www.footballo...om/info/methods Let's put it this way: I wish I had more time to get into fancystats, but I don't, so I trust the rest of you. But even an unsophisticated look behind the numbers, such as where Bills' opponents start their drives, would be necessary to test a conclusion based upon points allowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 Let's put it this way: I wish I had more time to get into fancystats, but I don't, so I trust the rest of you. But even an unsophisticated look behind the numbers, such as where Bills' opponents start their drives, would be necessary to test a conclusion based upon points allowed. Fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claude_Verret Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 I'm really looking forward to Sunday. Slingbox ready to go. Chili ingredients all purchased. Beer. Family coming in. Friends coming over. All that's left is to take the leaf blower and spruce up the Polish Porch and I am ready for fall. Don't even care if we lose. It's going to be a great day. This is exactly what the Bills represent to me at this point as well....and that's OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 I do not believe a team with a top-5 defense can completely bottom out in that fashion. At the very least, I'd put the chances at much lower than 40%. This also means that if EJ shows substantial improvement, this is a fringe playoff team. I think the team is 7-9 if EJ gives them the exact same thing he did last year, except for 16 games instead of 10. Interesting theorem. We'll see if there's proof to bear it out. The front 4 might be a top-5 unit on paper, but I would be (pleasantly) surprised if this D wound up as a top-5 unit. they were bottom half/bottom third in points allowed, and bottom of the barrel against the run. that ain't a #4 overall D in my book. Beat me to it. I would just add that regardless of how good a D they were last year after years of ineptitude, they've subtracted their coach, their best playmaker in Byrd and perhaps their best linebacker in Alonso, plus Dareus' offseason has added some uncertainty. Orton's deal is two years, $11M. The report this morning that players are giving up on Manuel and that he is on a short leash makes me feel like they're preparing for the worst on Manuel. They have Orton on a two-year deal so he can come in if Manuel continues to fail and then start Orton (unless EJ steals the job back) after drafting a second (or first in a trade up) round QB to learn behind Orton. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 Link? http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/2184485-insider-buzz-bills-ready-to-pull-the-plug-if-manuels-struggles-continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom webster Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 Mike Pettine is going to go down as the most over rated coordinator in the history of the NFL. Just needed to say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 Beat me to it. I would just add that regardless of how good a D they were last year after years of ineptitude, they've subtracted their coach, their best playmaker in Byrd and perhaps their best linebacker in Alonso, plus Dareus' offseason has added some uncertainty. Have to agree with you on this, was bored at work and read up on some stuff and personally as a coach i wouldn't give EJ more than two games to prove himself. He has had enough time to do so. And you traded up for a star WR , he deserves a QB that can throw it to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted September 3, 2014 Report Share Posted September 3, 2014 Mike Pettine is going to go down as the most over rated coordinator in the history of the NFL. Just needed to say that. Highly highly doubt this. But, as somebody who often dabbles in hyperbole, I understand what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted September 3, 2014 Report Share Posted September 3, 2014 Have to agree with you on this, was bored at work and read up on some stuff and personally as a coach i wouldn't give EJ more than two games to prove himself. He has had enough time to do so. And you traded up for a star WR , he deserves a QB that can throw it to him. You honestly and truly believe that 12 starts in the NFL is enough for a player to prove himself? I'd think even those who hated the EJ pick and don't think he'll ever amount to a decent starter would say that's a pretty ridiculous standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROC Sabres Posted September 3, 2014 Report Share Posted September 3, 2014 Orton's deal is two years, $11M. The report this morning that players are giving up on Manuel and that he is on a short leash makes me feel like they're preparing for the worst on Manuel. They have Orton on a two-year deal so he can come in if Manuel continues to fail and then start Orton (unless EJ steals the job back) after drafting a second (or first in a trade up) round QB to learn behind Orton. What report said players were giving up on Manuel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dEnnis the Menace Posted September 3, 2014 Report Share Posted September 3, 2014 http://m.bleacherrep...uggles-continue This seems more like a lot of opinion mixed in with a little truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted September 3, 2014 Report Share Posted September 3, 2014 What report said players were giving up on Manuel? The one I posted above. There was a report a week or two ago about players saying during exit interviews last season that they didn't believe Manuel was talented enough. This isn't new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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