Sabres Statistics: Stafford's Career Year

[Eleven]

I was right. First time in 2014. What is confounding me is why he was so heartily supported for it, other than he was our goaltender. At that point, he was the American Jhonas Enroth.

 

Ben Bishop is this year's American Enroth. You take the kid for the experience. USA made a mistake w/ Howard over Bishop just as it did with Esche (who has flipped his lid) over Miller.

 

Ok back to statistics requests or whatever this thread is about.

[Hoss]

Fans in Buffalo really wanting their young, unproven goaltender to represent the US in the Olympics doesn't mean he was considered.

[Stoner]

Annnnnnnnd… ACTION!

[Eleven]

Fans in Buffalo really wanting their young, unproven goaltender to represent the US in the Olympics doesn't mean he was considered.

 

You're still wrong. Geez. You were 12. We all were there. Try looking into something before you write, once in a while. Isn't that taught in sportswriting classes?

 

Annnnnnnnd… ACTION!

 

I don't even know why I bother.

[Hoss]

 

 

You're still wrong. Geez. You were 12. We all were there. Try looking into something before you write, once in a while. Isn't that taught in sportswriting classes?

 

All you provided as evidence was that fans in buffalo were chanting USA and fans on this board talked about it. That's not evidence that he was considered. And I was 14 in 2006.

Thanks for the age comment and insult on my education. Can always count on those things from you.

[MattPie]

http://i.nbcolympics.com/athletes/athlete=2478/bio/index.html

 

"Injury woes

Though he was expected to compete for the starting job at the 2006 Olympics, a broken thumb sidelined Miller in November 2005. He had begun the 2005-06 season as Buffalo's backup goalie, but quickly earned the top spot. Miller missed more than a month because of the thumb injury, and returned on the day the U.S. team was named, on Dec. 19. Though U.S. officials had made other plans by then, his play earned him the spot on the taxi squad."

 

And this lists Miller as the alternate for 2006.

http://proicehockey.about.com/od/international/a/us_olympic_team.htm

[Eleven]

All you provided as evidence was that fans in buffalo were chanting USA and fans on this board talked about it. That's not evidence that he was considered. And I was 14 in 2006.

Thanks for the age comment and insult on my education. Can always count on those things from you.

 

As long as you keep posting stupid ######, you sure can.

[Hoss]

When I searched the only thing I found said that he was considered up until a thumb injury early in the season. So he wasn't really considered for most of the season which is why I said he wasn't considered. I wouldn't count 2006.

[Eleven]

When I searched the only thing I found said that he was considered up until a thumb injury early in the season. So he wasn't really considered for most of the season which is why I said he wasn't considered. I wouldn't count 2006.

 

You dig?

[Stoner]

You're still wrong. Geez. You were 12. We all were there. Try looking into something before you write, once in a while. Isn't that taught in sportswriting classes?

 

I think the references to his major/career interest are cheap shots. His posts aren't assigments. It comes off as over the line, I don't know.

[Hoss]

You dig?

 

Yea. The thumb injury occurred early in the season, though. The theory states that he performs at a much higher level throughout seasons in which he is being considered for an Olympic spot. If he wasn't considered after the injury then I guess I could go back and add his stats from the games before the thumb injury that season.

Before then his save percentage was .910. Such a small sample size, and it was his first season as a starter. So it's tough to consider those. But still, that's what it was.

[WildCard]

STATS

[Johnny DangerFace]

I'm reinstalling my stats program tommorow so I'll start then.

[WildCard]

I'm reinstalling my stats program tommorow so I'll start then.

noice :thumbsup:

[spndnchz]

Now tires everywhere are pissed you compared them to Stafford

 

:w00t:

[shrader]

Ben Bishop is this year's American Enroth. You take the kid for the experience. USA made a mistake w/ Howard over Bishop just as it did with Esche (who has flipped his lid) over Miller.

 

Ok back to statistics requests or whatever this thread is about.

 

Howard is only a year and a half older than Bishop. If the NHL ever returns to the olympics, those two will be in direct competition with each other for a roster spot each time.

[Johnny DangerFace]

Stafford's Career Year

 

 

So this topic came up because I wanted to re-learn statistics and wanted a fun topic to learn with. So naturally it came to sports, and for whatever reason stafford is the guinea pig. I took stafford's 492 games and logged each game individually and entered his goals, assists, and shooting percentage* for each game. So yes that means an spreadsheet with 492 rows (fun). I ran two tests for two different questions:

 

 

Question 1

 

Was Stafford's 30 goal season (62 games) in 2010 statistically different than the rest of his career?

 

Answer: Yes

 

Using independent t-tests, I took the average goals per game in 2010 (.50) and compared it to the rest of his career (.23) and compared them. Taking into account the sample size (62 vs. 430), not only was this a valid test, but rounded to the nearest thousandth, it has an error chance of .000. This means that yes, staffords 30 goal season was an anomaly and is statistically different than the rest of his career.

 

 

Question 2

 

Since Stafford's career year in 2010, is he producing less?

 

Answer: Yes (goal wise) and No (assist wise)

 

Okay so I then grouped staffords first five years in the league including his banner 30 goal 2010 Season. I took his average goals per game (.30) and assists per game (.32). I then compared (independent t-tests) that to his three seasons since his 2010 career year. These past three years he has averaged .21 goals a game and .31 assists per game. As far as goals go, he these past three years he has statistically produced less per game (error chance .001). However his assists per game has remained consistent with his first 5 years and nothing has changed. This test also accounted for sample size differences. For both tests, sample size was more than large enough to run these tests accurately

 

 

Images

 

Spreadsheet - http://i.imgur.com/GyiLEsH.png

Question 1 Results - http://i.imgur.com/64ZLAPP.png

Question 2 Results - http://i.imgur.com/jqWJhmv.png

 

*Shooting percentage ended up never getting used because I couldn't figure out how to correctly weight it. If staff had 1 shot and missed and had a shooting percent of 0 percent for a game, but then was 2 for 2 in another game and had a shooting percentage of 100, I couldn't get the average to not be 50%...basically, the more shots he took in a game, the more weight his shooting percentage should be, but i couldnt replicate this.

Edited February 23, 2014 by Numark

[LGR4GM]

Interesting. Drew's one good year appears to be an outlier although we can continue to get assists from him.

[rakish]

First: Drew Stafford is effective when he gets to the net.

 

Lets first look at 2011-2012. You guys are all focused on the shooting percentage, but look at the chart, Drew got 6% of his shots from 9 feet, scored 3 goals. 5.5% from 10 ft, 2 goals, 5% from 11 ft, 5 goals, these numbers are well over the NHL average, the blue line. Of the 31 goals in 2011-2012, 15 were from 9 ft to 14 ft. If you take what he "should" have scored, the number is 19.2, but I don't take that seriously, it's just a number.

 

Now lets look at last year. 1.6% of his shots from 9 feet, that's why he's not scoring anymore. The Corsi's will say, "He's getting his shots, he's just unlucky", No, last season he took the highest percentage of his shots from 34 feet. 34 freekin feet.

 

Second: Stafford is effective with Ennis at center. He is bad with Hodgson at center. Ennis is terrible at wing. I'm not running the charts for you, but Nolan understands this ######, the last crew didn't.

 

Yes he makes too much money, but not that much too much.

[Wyldnwoody44]

I respect and appreciate the analytics of all of this, but man you guys get intense with your charts and stats..... My stats inclue the words "great" "good "" ok" "not good" and "ville leino"..... And i use the advanced analytics of the eye test to determine this, I guess charts just aren't my thing, I can see physically that Stafford is better this year in effort, but in stats, he's meh... And i saw in years prior he can do better elsewhere (assumed)

[Kr632]

 

 

So much so that they decided to commit mass suicide.

 

 

Lmfao

[LGR4GM]

Wasn't sure this deserved a new thread so I am will drop it here: Discusses some new or different advanced statistics than what we are use to. Includes things such as Point Share and Block Percentages. It is actually really interesting to take a look at it. TrueBlue and other advanced stats folks may like this site and the info there.

http://blog.extraskater.com/2014/05/upgrades-to-player-stats/

 

http://www.extraskater.com/players/on-ice-events?season=2013&sort=g_shr&min_gp=75

 

Cody Hodgson - whenever a goal was scored for the Sabres while he was on the ice he was involved (G or A) 84.6% of the time. This ranked him 11th in the NHL interestingly enough.

[LGR4GM]

Here are some additional and general Buffalo Sabres advanced stats for 2013-2014

http://www.extraskater.com/team/buffalo-sabres/2013