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"Increasingly Substantiated BS" rumor thread- 2014 Edition

WildCard

By WildCard
in The Aud Club

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Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted

I said you shouldn't take them not you can't. Again it is how I value goalies and how 1st round tenders pan out or don't. With how messed up the Sabres are I don't think they should do it this year in the first round. Second round go for it but 1st round should be devoted to getting offensive talent IMPO. Demko IMPO is not better than the top 30 skaters or the top 30 forwards IMPO. It is just how I value things.

 

Fleury, Bernier, Varlamov, Price, Rask, Schneider, Lehtonen, Ward, Luongo, JS Giguere, Brodeur are current starters that were drafted in the first round. That's a pretty good track record.

 

Looking at the list of goalies drafted in the first round before 2010 (giving those drafted 2010 and later time to develop): 19 of 46 had lengthy careers where they were at least, at some point, a solid backup for a few years.

Robviously First Liner

Robviously

Posted
Posted

I think I'd be fine with Demko late in the first round if we had a pick there, but it would still matter who else was available. He's already playing well at a high level for Boston College this year so he's more intriguing to me than a CHL goalie the same age.

LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

Posted
Posted

I think I'd be fine with Demko late in the first round if we had a pick there, but it would still matter who else was available. He's already playing well at a high level for Boston College this year so he's more intriguing to me than a CHL goalie the same age.

This I tend to agree with. I am not sure why but it makes me more comfortable with him then if he was just a CHL goalie.

 

Fleury, Bernier, Varlamov, Price, Rask, Schneider, Lehtonen, Ward, Luongo, JS Giguere, Brodeur are current starters that were drafted in the first round. That's a pretty good track record.

 

Looking at the list of goalies drafted in the first round before 2010 (giving those drafted 2010 and later time to develop): 19 of 46 had lengthy careers where they were at least, at some point, a solid backup for a few years.

Again it has to do with philosophy not the numbers. I think you can get a good gt after the 1st round (specifically early in the 2nd) without losing a pick on a player who is almost impossible to project at 18.

 

If you wanted to look at numbers the real key would be # of goalies selected in the first round and % of those who played say 40 games in the NHL. You could get really crazy and break the round up into 3rds to see if that changes things as well. Maybe 11-20 is the ideal area to draft a GT maybe not.

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted

This I tend to agree with. I am not sure why but it makes me more comfortable with him then if he was just a CHL goalie.

 

 

Again it has to do with philosophy not the numbers. I think you can get a good gt after the 1st round (specifically early in the 2nd) without losing a pick on a player who is almost impossible to project at 18.

 

If you wanted to look at numbers the real key would be # of goalies selected in the first round and % of those who played say 40 games in the NHL. You could get really crazy and break the round up into 3rds to see if that changes things as well. Maybe 11-20 is the ideal area to draft a GT maybe not.

 

I can tell you without looking again that the % of first round goalies that played at least 40 games in the NHL is well over 50%. Just going off memory of what I saw, the number of goalies drafted in the first round that played at least 40 games in ONE season at some point is over 50%.

nfreeman Hall of Famer

nfreeman

Posted
Posted

I can tell you without looking again that the % of first round goalies that played at least 40 games in the NHL is well over 50%. Just going off memory of what I saw, the number of goalies drafted in the first round that played at least 40 games in ONE season at some point is over 50%.

 

Calling BS on this.

dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

Posted
Posted

Here is an article on the matter that falls in line with some of my thought process. It is 2 years old but still is relevant.

 

http://houseofpuck.com/?p=513

 

It's a good rule of thumb, but it should not be a bible. In fact, given that your theory is the trend, it's probably created the classic buy-low scenario for goalies. Carey Price and Johnathan Bernier were good picks where they were drafted. If the 2014 version of these guys is available between 20 and 50, you'd be smart to take him. There is a better chance the best goalie in the draft is going to help your team than the 20th-best forward.

How many goalies did Darcy draft using the we'll get lucky in the mid-rounds theory? How many of them made the NHL?

Don't let analytics get in the way of eyeball scouting. If there is a goalie there after 20 you believe in, you take him.

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted (edited)

Again, ignoring 2010 and later. The list is since 1981:

 

Those who have played 40 games in one season:

Jonathan Bernier

Semyon Varlamov

Carey Price

Tuukka Rask

Devan Dubnyk

Marc-Andre Fleury

Kari Lehtonen

Cam Ward

Pascal Leclaire

Rick DiPietro

Roberto Luongo

JS Giguere

Martin Biron

Brian Boucher

Marc Denis

Jamie Storr

Dan Cloutier

Jocelyn Thibault

Trevor Kidd

Martin Brodeur

Olie Kolzig

Tom Barrasso

Grant Fuhr

 

Those who haven't:

Chet Pickard

Thomas McCollum

Riku Helenius

Leland Irving

Al Montoya

Marek Schwarz

Cory Schneider (will by the end of the season)

Hannu Toivonen

Dan Blackburn

Jason Bacashihua

Adam Munro

Brent Krahn

Brian Finley

Maxime Ouellet

Ari Ahonen

Patrick Desrochers

Mika Norenen

Jean-Francois Damphousse

Craig Hillier

Eric Fichaud

Yevgeni Ryabchikov

Jason Muzzatti

Jim Waite

 

 

Therefore, 23/46 goalies drafted in the first round since 1981 have played at least 40 games in one season. That's 50%. It'll be over that when Schneider crosses it by the end of the year. Many of these have played between 35-38 games in one season, so a few more games makes it even higher for them, but they obviously don't actually count.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Those who have played 40 games in their whole career:

Jonathan Bernier

Semyon Varlamov

Carey Price

Tuukka Rask

Al Montoya

Devan Dubnyk

Cory Schneider

Marc-Andre Fleury

Kari Lehtonen

Cam Ward

Hannu Toivonen

Pascal Leclaire

Dan Blackburn

Rick DiPietro

Roberto Luongo

Mika Noronen

JS Giguere

Martin Biron

Brian Boucher

Marc Denis

Jamie Storr

Eric Fichaud

Dan Cloutier

Jocelyn Thibault

Trevor Kidd

Martin Brodeur

Olie Kolzig

Jason Muzzatti

Jim Waite

Tom Barrasso

Grant Fuhr

 

Those who haven't:

Chet Pickard

Thomas McCollum

Riku Helenius

Leland Irving

Marek Schwarz

Jascon Bacashihua

Adam Munro

Brent Krahn

Brian Finley

Maxime Ouellet

Ari Ahonen

Patrick Desrochers

Jean-Francois Damphousse

Craig Hillier

Yevgeni Ryabchikov

 

 

31/46 of first round goalies since 1981 have played at least 40 games in their careers. That's 67%.

 

 

 

 

Well that was fun. And I will now fail this class I'm in.

Edited by Tankalicious
nfreeman Hall of Famer

nfreeman

Posted
Posted

Again, ignoring 2010 and later. The list is since 1981:

 

Those who have played 40 games in one season:

Jonathan Bernier

Semyon Varlamov

Carey Price

Tuukka Rask

Devan Dubnyk

Marc-Andre Fleury

Kari Lehtonen

Cam Ward

Pascal Leclaire

Rick DiPietro

Roberto Luongo

JS Giguere

Martin Biron

Brian Boucher

Marc Denis

Jamie Storr

Dan Cloutier

Jocelyn Thibault

Trevor Kidd

Martin Brodeur

Olie Kolzig

Tom Barrasso

Grant Fuhr

 

Those who haven't:

Chet Pickard

Thomas McCollum

Riku Helenius

Leland Irving

Al Montoya

Marek Schwarz

Cory Schneider (will by the end of the season)

Hannu Toivonen

Dan Blackburn

Jason Bacashihua

Adam Munro

Brent Krahn

Brian Finley

Maxime Ouellet

Ari Ahonen

Patrick Desrochers

Mika Norenen

Jean-Francois Damphousse

Craig Hillier

Eric Fichaud

Yevgeni Ryabchikov

Jason Muzzatti

Jim Waite

 

 

Therefore, 23/46 goalies drafted in the first round since 1981 have played at least 40 games in one season. That's 50%. It'll be over that when Schneider crosses it by the end of the year. Many of these have played between 35-38 games in one season, so a few more games makes it even higher for them, but they obviously don't actually count.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Those who have played 40 games in their whole career:

Jonathan Bernier

Semyon Varlamov

Carey Price

Tuukka Rask

Al Montoya

Devan Dubnyk

Cory Schneider

Marc-Andre Fleury

Kari Lehtonen

Cam Ward

Hannu Toivonen

Pascal Leclaire

Dan Blackburn

Rick DiPietro

Roberto Luongo

Mika Noronen

JS Giguere

Martin Biron

Brian Boucher

Marc Denis

Jamie Storr

Eric Fichaud

Dan Cloutier

Jocelyn Thibault

Trevor Kidd

Martin Brodeur

Olie Kolzig

Jason Muzzatti

Jim Waite

Tom Barrasso

Grant Fuhr

 

Those who haven't:

Chet Pickard

Thomas McCollum

Riku Helenius

Leland Irving

Marek Schwarz

Jascon Bacashihua

Adam Munro

Brent Krahn

Brian Finley

Maxime Ouellet

Ari Ahonen

Patrick Desrochers

Jean-Francois Damphousse

Craig Hillier

Yevgeni Ryabchikov

 

 

31/46 of first round goalies since 1981 have played at least 40 games in their careers. That's 67%.

 

 

 

 

Well that was fun. And I will now fail this class I'm in.

 

Nicely done. You got me.

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted

 

 

Nicely done. You got me.

 

Those definitely aren't the stats I would've expected going into it. I was surprised when I looked the first time to see so many of them have so many starts under their belt.

MattPie All Star

MattPie

Posted
Posted (edited)

Those definitely aren't the stats I would've expected going into it. I was surprised when I looked the first time to see so many of them have so many starts under their belt.

 

I suppose my next question is, "how many have 3 (or 5) seasons with 40 games?" I can see a team throwing a young 1st round pick in for a season or two since they were probably desperate for GT to begin with, but that pick not working out. Kind of like how the Bills manage QBs.

Edited by MattPie
Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted (edited)

I suppose my next question is, "how many have 3 (or 5) seasons with 40 games?" I can see a team throwing a young 1st round pick in for a season or two since they were probably desperate for GT to begin with, but that pick not working out. Kind of like how the Bills manage QBs.

 

Fuhr, Barrasso, Kolzig, Brodeur, Kidd, Thibault, Cloutier (4), Denis, Boucher (3), Biron, Giguere, Luongo, Dipietro (3), Ward, Lehtonen, Fleury, Price. Guys like Varlamov, Bernier, Schneider and Rask will get there.

 

Jamie Storr had two over 40 and one at 39.

 

Definitively: 17/46.

Will likely be 21/46 within a few years.

 

EDIT: Those in parentheses are the ones that are below five but at three or above. Only Boucher and Cloutier fall under this category.

Edited by Tankalicious
LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

Posted
Posted

It's a good rule of thumb, but it should not be a bible. In fact, given that your theory is the trend, it's probably created the classic buy-low scenario for goalies. Carey Price and Johnathan Bernier were good picks where they were drafted. If the 2014 version of these guys is available between 20 and 50, you'd be smart to take him. There is a better chance the best goalie in the draft is going to help your team than the 20th-best forward.

How many goalies did Darcy draft using the we'll get lucky in the mid-rounds theory? How many of them made the NHL?

Don't let analytics get in the way of eyeball scouting. If there is a goalie there after 20 you believe in, you take him.

I don't disagree. It is simply my own personal thought not anything scientific. I think you can get high quality GT outside of the 1st round and most definitely in the second. Maybe we should look at how many 2nd round goalies have played 40+ game in at least 3 or more seasons?

Claude_Verret First Liner

Claude_Verret

Posted
Posted

How does your brother-in-law know Erik Karlsson

 

He's from Ottawa and a PGA Tour pro. The Sens sponsor him on tour so he is friends with many of them, and he maintains a relationship with Alfredsson too. So he's torn, but still rooting for Canada I'm assuming.

inkman Hall of Famer

inkman

Posted
Posted

Go Sweden? :P

 

My Canadian brother in law just tweeted a text exchange he had with Erik Karlsson. He's torn...

 

post-61-0-70816200-1393016338_thumb.jpg

Is he ok with you posting a personal conversation he had on the Internet?

Norcal All Star

Norcal

Posted
Posted

Is it 11pm yet? Let the trading frenzy begin!!!! GMs are supposedly coming off of two weeks of discussions and ready to roll, can't wait to see what is going to happen not only in Buffalo but accross the league!! GO!!

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