GAME DISCUSSION THREAD GDT: Philadelphia at Buffalo 1-14-14 at 7:30 PM EST

[Iron Crotch]

I love Weber. I think he is really a good guy and he works hard. That being said you can't ignore the fact his numbers this year are atrocious. Part of that is he is playing against better guys and he can't handle that. Part of it is the Sabres lack of scoring. Bottom line is Weber is a 5/6 guy and is not good enough for the role he is trying to play. I am thoroughly disappointed in him this year.

 

Weber has a great attitude, hits everything that moves, and is a "team first" guy. I like him. But, he just isn't very good, unfortunately. If I were in charge, my top-7 defensemen for next year would be: Myers, The Hoff, Pysyk, McBain, McNabb, Risto, and Hank. Zadorov and Jake McCabe should factor in the not-too-distant future as well. I just don't see room for guys like Weber and Sulzer.

[JJFIVEOH]

Yes yes, looking deeper at the data to see if our inferences are valid is super lame. Peddling narratives with weak or nonexistent support is way better.

 

The neat thing about overall numbers is you cannot cherry pick which parts to include to fit your narrative. 'That guy is a great scorer, if you don't count the games he doesn't score' , 'The US doesn't have a deficit if you don't include expenditures that puts us in the red', 'Leino is a great stickhandler if you don't include all of his turnovers'. See how silly that sounds?

[Taro T]

Right now Miller is better. That won't continue and the rest of the league knows it. Enroth has an almost identical combined save percentage as Miller over the last four years. At that is with only getting backup playing time. Right now Miller is better, but assuming identical circumstances, Miller does not win that game last night; which is what started this whole conversation in the first place.

Unless you are indirectly referencing that Miller is several years older than Jhonas, the likelihood of that statement being true is rather slim.

[darksabre]

Right now Miller is better. That won't continue and the rest of the league knows it. Enroth has an almost identical combined save percentage as Miller over the last four years. At that is with only getting backup playing time. Right now Miller is better, but assuming identical circumstances, Miller does not win that game last night; which is what started this whole conversation in the first place.

 

This argument is ultimately why no one is taking you seriously. Your contention about Enroth's future numbers based on his current limited numbers is extremely weak.

[TrueBlueGED]

The neat thing about overall numbers is you cannot cherry pick which parts to include to fit your narrative. 'That guy is a great scorer, if you don't count the games he doesn't score' , 'The US doesn't have a deficit if you don't include expenditures that puts us in the red', 'Leino is a great stickhandler if you don't include all of his turnovers'. See how silly that sounds?

 

Sure, except that I'm not saying "Miller is a perfect save percentage if you exclude the shots he lets in". You're either misunderstanding or misrepresenting the argument.

 

Let me phrase the question this way to you and other "Olympic year" believers: if the Olympics truly motivate Miller to be more focused, and this causes him to perform at a higher level in Olympic years, then why does this difference only manifest itself when the Sabres are killing penalties, which is a minority of the season? If Olympic team motivations really were causing Miller to perform at a higher level, wouldn't that be evident at even strength, which is how the majority of games are spent?

[nfreeman]

Here's the other major problem with the Olympic years argument: his even strength SV% is functionally identical to non-Olympic years. Shamelessly stolen from Matt Coller's article, here's the breakdown:

 

06 - .919

07 - .928

08 - .915

09 - .927

10 - .928

11 - .924

12 - .922

 

This hardly shows a huge improvement in the Olympic season.

 

Furthermore, Miller's PK SV% in 2010 was .919, which is well above his .877 average in the other years. A hugely out of the norm penalty killing SV% was the real driver of cumulative SV% in that Olympic/Vezina season. So the Olympic argument then devolves from "he is more focused, and thus better, in Olympic years" to "He cares more during Olympic years but only when the Sabres are killing penalties...at even strength (the vast majority of every game) he cares just as much as in non-Olympic season." That's a pretty weak argument to make.

 

Now that is highly interesting data.

[Stoner]

Yes yes, looking deeper at the data to see if our inferences are valid is super lame. Peddling narratives with weak or nonexistent support is way better.

 

This question really brings into focus the chasm between the analytics believers and the non-believers. Every current GM (and one who just got fired, Regier) would tell you Miller has gotten his game to an elite level this season because he's fired up for the Olympics. Every last one. If you got two Mike's Harder Lemonades in Miller, he'd tell you the same thing. Are you really arguing that Miller is having just another Miller season?

[JJFIVEOH]

Sure, except that I'm not saying "Miller is a perfect save percentage if you exclude the shots he lets in". You're either misunderstanding or misrepresenting the argument.

 

Let me phrase the question this way to you and other "Olympic year" believers: if the Olympics truly motivate Miller to be more focused, and this causes him to perform at a higher level in Olympic years, then why does this difference only manifest itself when the Sabres are killing penalties, which is a minority of the season? If Olympic team motivations really were causing Miller to perform at a higher level, wouldn't that be evident at even strength, which is how the majority of games are spent?

 

Maybe because tending goal on the penalty kill requires a higher level of concentration based on the higher quality of scoring chances? Ya think? If anything your numbers help prove my point, not yours. If his 5-5 numbers are similar yet his overall save percentages on Olympic years are noticeably higher, then his penalty kill numbers are that much better on Olympic years.

[Claude_Verret]

 

 

Sure, except that I'm not saying "Miller is a perfect save percentage if you exclude the shots he lets in". You're either misunderstanding or misrepresenting the argument.

 

Let me phrase the question this way to you and other "Olympic year" believers: if the Olympics truly motivate Miller to be more focused, and this causes him to perform at a higher level in Olympic years, then why does this difference only manifest itself when the Sabres are killing penalties, which is a minority of the season? If Olympic team motivations really were causing Miller to perform at a higher level, wouldn't that be evident at even strength, which is how the majority of games are spent?

 

Easy. It's because analytics are bunk. ;)

[JJFIVEOH]

Here's the other major problem with the Olympic years argument: his even strength SV% is functionally identical to non-Olympic years. Shamelessly stolen from Matt Coller's article, here's the breakdown:

 

06 - .919

07 - .928

08 - .915

09 - .927

10 - .928

11 - .924

12 - .922

 

This hardly shows a huge improvement in the Olympic season.

 

Furthermore, Miller's PK SV% in 2010 was .919, which is well above his .877 average in the other years. A hugely out of the norm penalty killing SV% was the real driver of cumulative SV% in that Olympic/Vezina season. So the Olympic argument then devolves from "he is more focused, and thus better, in Olympic years" to "He cares more during Olympic years but only when the Sabres are killing penalties...at even strength (the vast majority of every game) he cares just as much as in non-Olympic season." That's a pretty weak argument to make.

 

For your argument to be halfway valid you need to show that the Sabres penalty kill unit was that much better on Olympic years. If not, the only variable is Miller playing better on the penalty kill every fourth year.

[Stoner]

This thread brings to mind Margaret Thatcher's advice to H.W. Bush. "Don't go wobbly on me, George." Don't go wobbly, fellow fans. We wanted the Core gone. Out with the Core, all of it. No looking back.

[darksabre]

Maybe because tending goal on the penalty kill requires a higher level of concentration based on the higher quality of scoring chances? Ya think? If anything your numbers help prove my point, not yours. If his 5-5 numbers are similar yet his overall save percentages on Olympic years are noticeably higher, then his penalty kill numbers are that much better on Olympic years.

 

Because the team doesn't affect the penalty kill at all?

 

Soooo many holes in every point you argue.

 

It's also absolute insanity to narrow the influences on a goaltenders stats down to ONE VARIABLE. One variable out of many and it's the one that is the most difficult to prove. Wacky stuff.

[JJFIVEOH]

-What was the Lalime's 5-5 and penalty kill numbers like in these years? If there was something so drastically different about that Sabres team that caused Miller's PK save percentage to rise to biblical proportions, and it wasn't Miller himself, his backup should have had similar numbers.

-What are the 5-5 and PK numbers like this year? I see that wasn't included on the list.

 

These are just a couple of relevant variables that need to be presented in order for the argument to be valid. If you're comparing Miller to his backup, you need to provide the backup's numbers as well as the supporting stats surrounding them. You can't just say the Olympic argument is invalid just because his 5-5 numbers are the same.

 

Because the team doesn't affect the penalty kill at all?

 

Soooo many holes in every point you argue.

 

It's also absolute insanity to narrow the influences on a goaltenders stats down to ONE VARIABLE. One variable out of many and it's the one that is the most difficult to prove. Wacky stuff.

Like you guys are using ONE VARIBALE to disprove it?

 

My last post pertains to you as well. I look forward to your supporting stats.

 

Funny how the 'team in front of him' argument was never used when Enroth lost 10 straight while he played the majoroty of the games in net during what was arguably the worst rash of injuries in Sabres history.

 

Man, all these cherries we need to make some pies!

[Robviously]

This question really brings into focus the chasm between the analytics believers and the non-believers. Every current GM (and one who just got fired, Regier) would tell you Miller has gotten his game to an elite level this season because he's fired up for the Olympics. Every last one. If you got two Mike's Harder Lemonades in Miller, he'd tell you the same thing. Are you really arguing that Miller is having just another Miller season?

I'm not sure I follow that 5x5 save % is the more important stat. Isn't the old saying "Your best penalty killer is your goalie"? Don't most of the best and biggest saves happen when you're killing a penalty? If a goalie took him game to the next level, I figure PK save % is where you'd see it.

 

Analytics are a tool, but I hate the idea that they tell you everything or that they tell you things you could never know any other way. Not everything gets a number in sports and if you've watched the Sabres every year for several years, it's plain to see that this is the best Miller has looked in years (maybe ever).

 

This thread brings to mind Margaret Thatcher's advice to H.W. Bush. "Don't go wobbly on me, George." Don't go wobbly, fellow fans. We wanted the Core gone. Out with the Core, all of it. No looking back.

Maybe we're "half-rebuilding" again.

[Claude_Verret]

This thread brings to mind Margaret Thatcher's advice to H.W. Bush. "Don't go wobbly on me, George." Don't go wobbly, fellow fans. We wanted the Core gone. Out with the Core, all of it. No looking back.

 

I was fine with letting Miller go last year and I'm still fine with it now with us in tank mode. However, I said then and still maintain now that filling his pads isn't going to be nearly as easy as some here think it will be. Goalie purgatory is a very real possibility that can throw a wrench into any rebuild.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

There is a simple way of knowing Miller's focus is on the Olympics and was in 2010...

 

When has he grown a beard during the regular season? Now this Movember stuff throws a wrinkle into it this year, but he grew the beard a few months before the Olympics in 2010, and is doing again this year. It's a not so subtle sign to show you where his mind is....

[Claude_Verret]

 

Analytics are a tool, but I hate the idea that they tell you everything or that they tell you things you could never know any other way. Not everything gets a number in sports and if you've watched the Sabres every year for several years, it's plain to see that this is the best Miller has looked in years (maybe ever).

 

As far as I know that's all proponents of advanced stats have ever claimed them to be. In any sport. A tool to provide context and perhaps a deeper understanding of the game. Nothing more or less.

 

There is a simple way of knowing Miller's focus is on the Olympics and was in 2010...

 

When has he grown a beard during the regular season? Now this Movember stuff throws a wrinkle into it this year, but he grew the beard a few months before the Olympics in 2010, and is doing again this year. It's a not so subtle sign to show you where his mind is....

 

Well you've got advanced stats and you've got the psychology of the beard.

[spndnchz]

FWIW, Darcy was firmly on board with the Olympic Theory of Ryan Miller. There's this quote, and others that I can't locate quickly but will look for:

 

 

5]Buffalo Sabres general manager Darcy Regier remembers precisely when he last witnessed goalie Ryan Miller displaying the same laser sharp focus he's showing this season.

5]"It was during the last Olympics," Regier said. "I remember thinking in 2010, I don't know if I've ever seen this level of focus over this period of time."

5]

http://www.usatoday....miller/3449221/

 

 

Since when do we believe anything Darcy says?

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

[/color][/color]

 

 

Since when do we believe anything Darcy says?

 

Has ANYONE seen or heard from Darcy the past few months? It's like he was a fallen angel who was sent here to cause havoc, depression, and destruction to the masses and then vanished into thin air, back to demon world.....

[darksabre]

-What was the Lalime's 5-5 and penalty kill numbers like in these years? If there was something so drastically different about that Sabres team that caused Miller's PK save percentage to rise to biblical proportions, and it wasn't Miller himself, his backup should have had similar numbers.

-What are the 5-5 and PK numbers like this year? I see that wasn't included on the list.

 

These are just a couple of relevant variables that need to be presented in order for the argument to be valid. If you're comparing Miller to his backup, you need to provide the backup's numbers as well as the supporting stats surrounding them. You can't just say the Olympic argument is invalid just because his 5-5 numbers are the same.

 

 

Like you guys are using ONE VARIBALE to disprove it?

 

My last post pertains to you as well. I look forward to your supporting stats.

 

Funny how the 'team in front of him' argument was never used when Enroth lost 10 straight while he played the majoroty of the games in net during what was arguably the worst rash of injuries in Sabres history.

 

Man, all these cherries we need to make some pies!

 

Team in front of him is not one variable. It's a set of variables.

 

"Miller's Focus" is one variable that requires complete neutralization of every other variable to even begin to quantify.

 

If you can eliminate every factor and prove that Miller's Focus is the only thing influencing his play each season, then you will be able to make the Olympic year argument.

 

Fun Fact: You can't do it.

[Claude_Verret]

Has ANYONE seen or heard from Darcy the past few months? It's like he was a fallen angel who was sent here to cause havoc, depression, and destruction to the masses and then vanished into thin air, back to demon world.....

 

Well I don't think a Lindy-like farewell PC was in order. What would you do if you just got canned from a job in a town where you were almost universally vilified? There's your answer as to what DR has been up to.

[JJFIVEOH]

Team in front of him is not one variable. It's a set of variables.

 

"Miller's Focus" is one variable that requires complete neutralization of every other variable to even begin to quantify.

 

If you can eliminate every factor and prove that Miller's Focus is the only thing influencing his play each season, then you will be able to make the Olympic year argument.

 

Fun Fact: You can't do it.

 

So you're going to ignore my questions? I challenged you to completely neutralize every other variable to prove BFLO's PK was significantly different in that one particular year, in order to support TrueBlue's theory that 2010 just happened to be different and that Miller doesn't only step up in Olympic years. You failed.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

 

 

Well I don't think a Lindy-like farewell PC was in order. What would you do if you just got canned from a job in a town where you were almost universally vilified? There's your answer as to what DR has been up to.

 

I thought he didn't read the paper or listen to the radio?

 

Just weird. Not even a sighting at a Swift Current Timmy Ho's in a trench coat with a 3 day beard, bootlegging wifi to run a spreadsheet of his 401k mutual funds....

[dudacek]

Any issue with a Miller signing isn't about his ability. It's about how his ability will age and fit into the rebuild program.

I like Jhonas, but I don't think he will be a building block in the rebuild, or key veteran that can help in the transition.

 

There is some possibility MIller could be traded for the former, but he sure as hell can be more effective as the latter than any of our other options.

 

Among Darcy's failures is his decision to put all his miller successor eggs into the Enroth basket.

Makarov and Ullmark are years away and have done nothing more to prove they will arrive than any of the others that came before them.

[LGR4GM]

Any issue with a Miller signing isn't about his ability. It's about how his ability will age and fit into the rebuild program.

I like Jhonas, but I don't think he will be a building block in the rebuild, or key veteran that can help in the transition.

 

There is some possibility MIller could be traded for the former, but he sure as hell can be more effective as the latter than any of our other options.

 

Among Darcy's failures is his ability to put all his miller successor eggs into the Enroth basket.

Makarov and Ullmark are years away and have done nothing more to prove they will arrive than any of the others that came before them.

Minus the fact Ullmark is currently leading the SHL with a .933sv%

 

or Cal Peterson in the USHL with a .918sv%

 

As for your comments on Miller, I agree that how he ages is extremely important to whether or not you keep him. Someone within the Sabres needs to make a call on that, sooner rather than later.