GAME DISCUSSION THREAD GDT: Philadelphia at Buffalo 1-14-14 at 7:30 PM EST

[darksabre]

The other thing about the Olympics argument is that it barely matters. No one is saying "OMG MILLER IS ONLY GOOD DURING OLYMPICS LOLZ" (as d4rk put it last night). He's always been good since he came to the NHL. He's only been THIS good twice -- this year and four years ago. Maybe that's a coincidence or maybe Miller does get a little extra focused with the Olympics on the horizon. Either way, his ridiculously good play right now is an outlier.

 

The consensus on this board last year and even as late as November 2013 is that Miller wasn't going to fetch a ton in the trade market due, in part, to his play. So it wasn't that long ago we were thinking "I'm not sure teams are going to want to trade a lot for this level of goaltending. Is this even a big upgrade?"

 

So if you're re-sign Miller, you're probably re-signing the "good" goalie he's been most of his career and NOT the supernatural entity he's been the last couple months. That still might be a good move (one less thing to worry about for a few years) but that's the decision.

 

You're absolutely re-signing Miller for being the good goalie. It's unreasonable to expect any goaltender to play at the level he is right now every season of his career. This is the point I'm continuously trying to hammer home: When you have the opportunity to keep your good goalie, you do it. Because if you don't, BOOM; Goalie Purgatory.

 

I don't want Goalie Purgatory. None of you want Goalie Purgatory. Steve Shields, Dwayne Roloson, Martin Biron, Mika Noronen, Bob Essensa, Petr Skudra, Micheal Leighton.

 

Because Jhonas Enroth, Matt Hackett, and Nathan Lieuwen are starting to look like Goalie Purgatory.

 

I'd like to be competitive somewhere before 2020 thank you.

[TrueBlueGED]

I posted the save percentage first for a reason. And save percentage fluctuates, but that doesn't explain why his two highest (by far) save percentages were in Olympic years.

 

Sure. Any explanation, then? Because there are clear indications that he's better in Olympic years.

 

Here's the other major problem with the Olympic years argument: his even strength SV% is functionally identical to non-Olympic years. Shamelessly stolen from Matt Coller's article, here's the breakdown:

 

06 - .919

07 - .928

08 - .915

09 - .927

10 - .928

11 - .924

12 - .922

 

This hardly shows a huge improvement in the Olympic season.

 

Furthermore, Miller's PK SV% in 2010 was .919, which is well above his .877 average in the other years. A hugely out of the norm penalty killing SV% was the real driver of cumulative SV% in that Olympic/Vezina season. So the Olympic argument then devolves from "he is more focused, and thus better, in Olympic years" to "He cares more during Olympic years but only when the Sabres are killing penalties...at even strength (the vast majority of every game) he cares just as much as in non-Olympic season." That's a pretty weak argument to make.

[Claude_Verret]

I don't subscribe to the Miller Olympic year theory, but if you do then you should be for keeping Miller. In another four years he'll be 37 which is still plenty young for a goalie to still perform at an elite level. Also, a three to four year timeline will hopefully also coincide with the rebuild coming to fruition under this new front office that we all seem to be excited about.

[Sabre Dance]

Leaving the Sabres' defensive issues aside for a moment, give a little credit to the Flyers for not sitting back and waiting for the game to end in a tie. They went after it and (with some lousy D from Buffalo) found a way to score. The way this game ended kind of points up my dislike for OT in the regualr season (not to mention shootouts). It's by far too easy for teams tied near the end of regulation to take the easy way out and play for the tie, getting a "safe" point. This is a discussion for another thread, of course...

[Derrico]

Oh my goodness give it a damn rest. I said in a completely normal manner that I disagree with your statement.

 

Ya well you've had a knack for rubbing people the wrong way lately. Sorry if you don't get the benefit of the doubt.

[sicknfla]

 

And you missed the point. The point is the goalie market is soft and DR was asking too much. The Entire League has learned that you can win a cup with average GT. With the Niemi/Crawfords of the world. So you see Miller is/was overpriced as far as a trade was concerned when you could get a cheaper gt that basically gives you a similar chance at winning.

 

Also you said the dumb thing, I was just making fun of it.

 

I knew you were joking. I was hoping someone took the bait of why goal scorers have more trade value. My follow up would have pretty much echoed what you said. The demand is not there. That is why I adamantly disagree with those that think we should give him 5-6 years at 7-8m.

 

Not worth it at this stage of his career or in the current state of this organization.

 

 

 

 

We wont let him go for just a second

 

We will if it means "manipulating" the draft.

[Eleven]

And everybody is equally sick of yours and everyone else, miller is god crap. Works both ways, and that is obviously something you and a few other regulars don't understand.

 

I'm definitely neither a "Miller is God" guy nor an Enroth hater. Miller is the best goalie in the league right at the moment, and I don't see that as deniable. Enroth is a damned fine goalie in his own right, but he's just not Ryan Miller.

 

My problem is with a particular poster's constant attitude (EDIT: see the post two posts above this one), and not with his position regarding Enroth or Miller.

[FolignosJock]

I knew you were joking. I was hoping someone took the bait of why goal scorers have more trade value. My follow up would have pretty much echoed what you said. The demand is not there. That is why I adamantly disagree with those that think we should give him 5-6 years at 7-8m.

 

Not worth it at this stage of his career or in the current state of this organization.

 

 

 

We will if it means "manipulating" the draft.

 

What does that mean?

 

We could probably trade his rights after the season for a 2nd. So that a team can negotiate with him before the others. I highly doubt hey would let him go for that little a price at the deadline.

[sicknfla]

 

 

What does that mean?

 

We could probably trade his rights after the season for a 2nd. So that a team can negotiate with him before the others. I highly doubt hey would let him go for that little a price at the deadline.

 

Based on the TM comment of how you can kind of control your draft fate. If he is adamant that he is not resigning why wouldn't you? So he can help you finish higher in the draft and then walk? Other teams know this. That is why the market is soft.

 

You have to hope a few teams get into a bidding war. If it's just one team they hold all the leverage.

[Who Else?]

Couple things from the game

• An exciting game that did not in a shootout
  
• Good for the tank Good for the fans (I prefer wins, but at least it was a entertaining loss)
  
• NBC Sports B team is soooooo much better that McGuire, Eddie Zero , and Doc. I can't quite remember why I disliked Engblom, he was actually worth listening to. THe intermission crew is still a joke.
  
• Kudos to Rob Ray who touted Steve Ott's passing ability on WGR before the game.
  
• Ville Leino sucks
  
• Oh Yeah, Get Up! Jhonas Get up!
  

[Iron Crotch]

Mike Weber is now down to -21 on the year (he was, of course, on the ice for the winning Flyers goal) in only 31 games played. And, were it not for Nail Yakupov and his mind-boggling -30, Weber would be dead last in the NHL in +/-. He has been a minus player or level in all but one game this year.

 

Edit: I was always one of the few defenders of Leino over the past couple of years, in part because he was learning a new system and was hurt too often to really evaluate. But, I can now join others in the anti-Leino sentiment. He doesn't score, doesn't hit, and is a turnover machine. ...he screams buyout all the way.

[LGR4GM]

Mike Weber is now down to -21 on the year (he was, of course, on the ice for the winning Flyers goal) in only 31 games played. And, were it not for Nail Yakupov and his mind-boggling -30, Weber would be dead last in the NHL in +/-. He has been a minus player or level in all but one game this year.

I love Weber. I think he is really a good guy and he works hard. That being said you can't ignore the fact his numbers this year are atrocious. Part of that is he is playing against better guys and he can't handle that. Part of it is the Sabres lack of scoring. Bottom line is Weber is a 5/6 guy and is not good enough for the role he is trying to play. I am thoroughly disappointed in him this year.

[Stoner]

Here's the other major problem with the Olympic years argument: his even strength SV% is functionally identical to non-Olympic years. Shamelessly stolen from Matt Coller's article, here's the breakdown:

 

06 - .919

07 - .928

08 - .915

09 - .927

10 - .928

11 - .924

12 - .922

 

This hardly shows a huge improvement in the Olympic season.

 

Furthermore, Miller's PK SV% in 2010 was .919, which is well above his .877 average in the other years. A hugely out of the norm penalty killing SV% was the real driver of cumulative SV% in that Olympic/Vezina season. So the Olympic argument then devolves from "he is more focused, and thus better, in Olympic years" to "He cares more during Olympic years but only when the Sabres are killing penalties...at even strength (the vast majority of every game) he cares just as much as in non-Olympic season." That's a pretty weak argument to make.

 

The day… the analytics… died. Singing bye bye, Miss American Pie…

[Hoss]

The consensus on this board last year and even as late as November 2013 is that Miller wasn't going to fetch a ton in the trade market due, in part, to his play. So it wasn't that long ago we were thinking "I'm not sure teams are going to want to trade a lot for this level of goaltending. Is this even a big upgrade?"

 

That's one of the big gripes I have. Just last year people were sick of Miller. Not everybody, and I'm not saying d4rk specifically because I don't know what his stance was, but he was letting in soft goal after soft goal ALL season last year. It got to the point where people I know who love Miller wanted him off the team. In favor of either Enroth or another acquisition.

 

The Olympic theory certainly has legitimate support. The next Olympic year, Miller likely isn't in the conversation any longer. He's wasn't in the conversation until the season started to play out and he outperformed expectations. Right now he might not start. If he doesn't start this year, I don't see him being in the conversation at 37 after another three years of decent but not great goalie play.

 

I'm definitely neither a "Miller is God" guy nor an Enroth hater. Miller is the best goalie in the league right at the moment, and I don't see that as deniable. Enroth is a damned fine goalie in his own right, but he's just not Ryan Miller.

 

My problem is with a particular poster's constant attitude (EDIT: see the post two posts above this one), and not with his position regarding Enroth or Miller.

 

I get your issue with my attitude. I can be a dick. But I've been trying not to get into it as much lately. The only time it comes up is when I'm having a normal conversation and an "old-timer" like yourself decides to jump on me for NO REASON. There was absolutely no attitude in my response to your post. You decided to jump for no reason. In the past, there's been plenty of reason to jump on me because there was attitude in the posts. My post contained none of that, but apparently disagreeing with you is enough for you to stir the pot and start it all over again.

 

The issue would go away if I could hold a normal conversation and disagree with somebody without them bringing up the past for no reason whatsoever.

[Eleven]

That's one of the big gripes I have. Just last year people were sick of Miller. Not everybody, and I'm not saying d4rk specifically because I don't know what his stance was, but he was letting in soft goal after soft goal ALL season last year. It got to the point where people I know who love Miller wanted him off the team. In favor of either Enroth or another acquisition.

 

The Olympic theory certainly has legitimate support. The next Olympic year, Miller likely isn't in the conversation any longer. He's wasn't in the conversation until the season started to play out and he outperformed expectations. Right now he might not start. If he doesn't start this year, I don't see him being in the conversation at 37 after another three years of decent but not great goalie play.

 

 

 

I get your issue with my attitude. I can be a dick. But I've been trying not to get into it as much lately. The only time it comes up is when I'm having a normal conversation and an "old-timer" like yourself decides to jump on me for NO REASON. There was absolutely no attitude in my response to your post. You decided to jump for no reason. In the past, there's been plenty of reason to jump on me because there was attitude in the posts. My post contained none of that, but apparently disagreeing with you is enough for you to stir the pot and start it all over again.

 

The issue would go away if I could hold a normal conversation and disagree with somebody without them bringing up the past for no reason whatsoever.

 

All right, I'll give you a fresh start.

[Hoss]

All right, I'll give you a fresh start.

 

And I you.

[darksabre]

That's one of the big gripes I have. Just last year people were sick of Miller. Not everybody, and I'm not saying d4rk specifically because I don't know what his stance was, but he was letting in soft goal after soft goal ALL season last year. It got to the point where people I know who love Miller wanted him off the team. In favor of either Enroth or another acquisition.

 

The Olympic theory certainly has legitimate support. The next Olympic year, Miller likely isn't in the conversation any longer. He's wasn't in the conversation until the season started to play out and he outperformed expectations. Right now he might not start. If he doesn't start this year, I don't see him being in the conversation at 37 after another three years of decent but not great goalie play.

 

Just to provide my opinion from last season, I was of the opinion that everyone from the "old core" needed to be cleaned out, including Miller. I was prepared to default to Goalie Purgatory. I had reached the acceptance phase of grief. The team as a whole had made me numb to any concept of winning. I was thankful to be working second shift this season so I'd never waste valuable time watching a game.

 

And then Regier and Rolston got canned. This changed my mind on Miller more than his play this season. My timeline for this team to be a contender changed from 5-7 years to 3-4 years over night. My renewed faith in the front office changed my mind about whether or not Miller should be this team's goaltender for the immediate future.

 

We've already seen what a change in attitude can do for a team. This club has never been in a better position to execute a rebuild in grand fashion. They've got so many pieces already to add to a team that is somehow winning games, I don't see how they wont be making a playoff run in 2016. And I want Miller here to backstop it.

[dEnnis the Menace]

Just to provide my opinion from last season, I was of the opinion that everyone from the "old core" needed to be cleaned out, including Miller. I was prepared to default to Goalie Purgatory. I had reached the acceptance phase of grief. The team as a whole had made me numb to any concept of winning. I was thankful to be working second shift this season so I'd never waste valuable time watching a game.

 

And then Regier and Rolston got canned. This changed my mind on Miller more than his play this season. My timeline for this team to be a contender changed from 5-7 years to 3-4 years over night. My renewed faith in the front office changed my mind about whether or not Miller should be this team's goaltender for the immediate future.

 

We've already seen what a change in attitude can do for a team. This club has never been in a better position to execute a rebuild in grand fashion. They've got so many pieces already to add to a team that is somehow winning games, I don't see how they wont be making a playoff run in 2016. And I want Miller here to backstop it.

.

 

this...all of this.

[Derrico]

And I you.

 

I really don't like having issues with posters just posts. But I always thought of you as a good contributor and agreed with much of what you said when you were DStebb. It's like since you changed your name (only what, a week ago) you're alter ego has come out and you've been a ###### dick.

[Hoss]

Just to provide my opinion from last season, I was of the opinion that everyone from the "old core" needed to be cleaned out, including Miller. I was prepared to default to Goalie Purgatory. I had reached the acceptance phase of grief. The team as a whole had made me numb to any concept of winning. I was thankful to be working second shift this season so I'd never waste valuable time watching a game.

 

And then Regier and Rolston got canned. This changed my mind on Miller more than his play this season. My timeline for this team to be a contender changed from 5-7 years to 3-4 years over night. My renewed faith in the front office changed my mind about whether or not Miller should be this team's goaltender for the immediate future.

 

We've already seen what a change in attitude can do for a team. This club has never been in a better position to execute a rebuild in grand fashion. They've got so many pieces already to add to a team that is somehow winning games, I don't see how they wont be making a playoff run in 2016. And I want Miller here to backstop it.

 

I would love for Miller to be the guy to backstop a rebuild, but I, unfortunately, don't see it happening that way. I outlined my thoughts in another post, and it is basically that there are so many factors such as cost, the Olympic debate, propensity of players to slow down as they get older (despite a few aging goaltenders in recent years finding success), attitude (good for the team at times, bad during others) and the value we may get in a trade.

 

On top of that, moving Miller will help the "tank" which I am certainly in favor of.

 

I think we'll be contending for a playoff spot in the timeline you've stated with or without Miller. Goalie purgatory certainly plagues some franchises, but those franchises weren't fully loaded with many top-level defensive prospects like we are. So defense can help carry us until we find our next goalie which I believe we could do if we're aggressive enough in the next few years without Miller.

[Johnny DangerFace]

Dstebb is tankaliciuos?!? Now I really hate him.

 

 

 

 

I kid I kid. Never had an issue with dstebb

[Derrico]

Dstebb is tankaliciuos?!? Now I really hate him.

 

 

 

 

I kid I kid. Never had an issue with dstebb

 

Dstebb was great lol.

[darksabre]

I would love for Miller to be the guy to backstop a rebuild, but I, unfortunately, don't see it happening that way. I outlined my thoughts in another post, and it is basically that there are so many factors such as cost, the Olympic debate, propensity of players to slow down as they get older (despite a few aging goaltenders in recent years finding success), attitude (good for the team at times, bad during others) and the value we may get in a trade.

 

On top of that, moving Miller will help the "tank" which I am certainly in favor of.

 

I think we'll be contending for a playoff spot in the timeline you've stated with or without Miller. Goalie purgatory certainly plagues some franchises, but those franchises weren't fully loaded with many top-level defensive prospects like we are. So defense can help carry us until we find our next goalie which I believe we could do if we're aggressive enough in the next few years without Miller.

 

I'd like to say that as far as factors that go into the decision process on Miller, the Olympic theory should be completely ignored. The other concerns that you provided, to me, are much more valuable. I would hope that none of the people in charge of Miller's future are even throwing around the idea of him only being his best during Olympic years.

 

Obviously the area we disagree on is the ease of which a team can establish a new starting goalie. Watching teams (not just Edmonton) around the league struggle year in and year out has me quite afraid of shooting ourselves in the foot too soon. I think there is a right time to take the plunge into Goalie Purgatory and that right now is not the correct time.

[TrueBlueGED]

The day… the analytics… died. Singing bye bye, Miss American Pie…

 

Yes yes, looking deeper at the data to see if our inferences are valid is super lame. Peddling narratives with weak or nonexistent support is way better.

[JJFIVEOH]

Jj who do you think is the better goalie? Enroth or Miller?

 

Right now Miller is better. That won't continue and the rest of the league knows it. Enroth has an almost identical combined save percentage as Miller over the last four years. At that is with only getting backup playing time. Right now Miller is better, but assuming identical circumstances, Miller does not win that game last night; which is what started this whole conversation in the first place.