Hired: Tim Murray, GM and Craig Patrick, Advisor

[beerme1]

Also one of the guys said at the end of the interview the ast gm will be a shocker. An agent. Not sure if this joking or not.

Murray was more at ease with these guys simply because he is friends with and familiar with them. Was good stuff!

[spndnchz]

@SunGarrioch

Murray says on @SNHockeyCentral at noon that the club "will probably" remove interim tag from Ted Nolan soon. #Sabres

 

As in "We will be firing him in the next few weeks".

[Assquatch]

@SunGarrioch

Murray says on @SNHockeyCentral at noon that the club "will probably" remove interim tag from Ted Nolan soon. #Sabres

 

I'd prefer he observe the rest of the year up close but honestly interim tag or no, Nolan can be replaced any time Murray decides to.

 

On the other hand, Nolan's strength seems to be getting the most out of younger players, and it appears we're going to have a ton of youth in the organization for the next few years.

[spndnchz]

PLF:

 

http://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_demand-3/Pat-LaFontaine-with-Greg-Brady-and-Andrew-Walker-bw-20140110-Interview.mp3

[spndnchz]

Murray talks about leaving Ottawa and coming here:

 

http://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_demand-3/Tim-Murray-with-Bob-McCown-and-Damien-Cox-pt-20140109-Interview.mp3

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

 

 

I couldn't disagree more. Everyone doesn't use analytics in the same way, just as one GM's hockey sense is likely tuned differently from another.

 

In listening....it sounds like he pretty much says, you get guys with hockey sense and who think the game, who have character...you're going to get possession. Again..it's about finding the qualities that drive the numbers. Anyone can spit out a spreadsheet....can you find me the guys ahead of time so that I can tell you what will be on that spreadsheet?

 

I like Murray's frankness. He says point blank he is not full of bubbles and sunshine, but at least he can communicate that to people. Interesting take on what he wants on defense. Mobility #1.

[Robviously]

That's correct. I did make that comment, which I think is a fair description of how you reacted to those who disagreed with you on the issue of whether to tank (which reaction is also what spurred my "irony" post).

 

In any case I'll let it go if you will.

I let it go months ago. I can't even remember the last time I argued with anyone about tanking or not tanking. This is why the temper tantrum stuff was so confusing. I didn't even realize anyone still had an axe to grind over last year's threads.

 

Let it go or don't. This ended for me a long time ago.

[Claude_Verret]

I haven't listened to any of the interviews as they've completely locked down internet streaming at my site recently, to the point where I can't even access some corporate intranet material I often need....but I digress. Maybe Murray himself isn't an analytics guy, but I'd bet a hefty sum that someone in the Sabres front office who is part of the CP/PLF/TM brain trust is running analytics and it's involved in the evaluation of players.

[nfreeman]

On the other hand, Nolan's strength seems to be getting the most out of younger players, and it appears we're going to have a ton of youth in the organization for the next few years.

 

I'm not sure on this. He's clearly a believer in not playing younger players until they're ready, but I don't think that's the same as developing younger players. Most of the kids have been sent down since he and PLF took over.

[Hoss]

 

 

We just don't know that though. There's a few teams out west that might want him, but they don't have much to spare in return. Minnesota isn't getting the offense it needs so they aren't going to give up more of it. Nashville isn't scoring goals either. I don't see either team going deep in the playoffs anyway.

 

Then you come back East. The only team there that might have some interesting return for us is Detroit. Lot's of good young kids on their team right now due to injuries and retirements and their goaltending hasn't been too good this year. Miller makes them a better team, but do we want to make a move in-division? Does Detroit want to throw in the towel on Howard and Gustavsson? Philly might want Miller, but are they really built for a deep playoff run? I'm not sure. They're probably happy with Mason anyway knowing that team. No one else in the East really needs a goalie as much as they need scoring talent.

 

I think Miller is going to look at the teams out there he'd want to play for as a rental and realize that none of them need a goalie anyway.

 

Hasn't it been said before that Miller's list is different from Pominville's in that it's submitted before the year begins? I know that some players have that type and some have the type where it's to be asked for. I thought I remember talks that Miller's is the former.

[That Aud Smell]

Gotta be able to do both. To shun hockey sense for analytics or vice versa puts any front office in today's NHL at a competitive disadvantage.

The bold is precisely the point. Particularly in baseball, using analytics doesn't have the same advantage it did when it was first emerging...but NOT using it is most certainly a disadvantage.

 

you probably do need to do both. but when it comes to quantifying the relative importance of each?

 

I believe his comments on "hockey sense" were not in relation to the scouts, but what he looks for in players. In other words, he was not referring to he scout's "hockey sense", but the player's, as an important part of the evaluation process for him. On analytics, he said it was possibly very useful for the casual observer, but for him, it was of some use but minor importance. Anyway, thats how I heard it.

that's the way I heard it...

 

well taken. my mistake. i got botched up talking about a scout's or exec's ability to discern "hockey sense" from a player. quite right - TM was talking about an experienced hockey person's ability to evaluate a prospect's "hockey sense."

[K-9]

Like apus states....there is no longer value in something when everyone is chasing the same thing. If anything, I would use analytics at this point as a contrarian tool. A lot of it is common sense....some geek that never had the tools to play at a high level and who doesn't understand people, psychology, and what physical tools go into being an athlete....sure, he feels smart by spouting out some numbers that look like they might make sense. The real evaluator will look at the human being, and can probably confirm 80% of what the numbers are telling you, but also dismiss the crucial 20% because he has the common sense to see why certain results get skewed. Darcy was the classic spreadsheet guy. He never understood what made a player special and the synergy involved in identifying certain qualities over pure skill.

 

The real money is always made going against what the numbers say...not in chasing the numbers. You just have to be decisive and have nads....you won't always be right, but your rewards will be homeruns and your loss will be limited with discounted risk.

 

Great insight here.

 

GO SABRES!!!

[WildCard]

ICYMI, Good interview with Murray this morning on WGR: Tim Murray on the Howard Simon Show <24:36>

starts talking about the 2015 draft around 3:50, discussing tank methods and draft positions. I love what he has to say on this, claiming you want to get better, but you have to look towards the future. Says if it comes to next trade deadline and we're around the fifth worst, there's trades we can make to get ourselves into that position for a top 2. Says he likes quality > quantity, and with amount of picks we have we can manipulate them to get higher picks.

Edited January 10, 2014 by WildCard

[Hoss]

 

starts talking about the 2015 draft around 3:50, discussing tank methods and draft positions. I love what he has to say on this, claiming you want to get better, but you have to look towards the future. Says if it comes to next trade deadline and we're around the fifth worst, there's trades we can make to get ourselves into that position for a top 2. Says we likes quality > quantity, and with amount of picks we have we can manipulate them to get higher picks.

 

I'd be interested to hear what the league thinks on openly indicating a tank philosophy.

[...]

 

 

I'd prefer he observe the rest of the year up close but honestly interim tag or no, Nolan can be replaced any time Murray decides to.

 

On the other hand, Nolan's strength seems to be getting the most out of younger players, and it appears we're going to have a ton of youth in the organization for the next few years.

 

Not to mention that TM told Simon et al that they're looking at the next TWO drafts to help rebuild the team, so, why not have Nolan around for those years? He can work on finding his ideal coach over the time and land his first choice when the time is right.

 

 

[bcsaberks]

My understanding is that all the Canadian teams are on the list.

Taxes?

[dudacek]

 

On a slightly more serious note, I didn't hear a ringing endorsement of TN from TM. .

Maybe the bold move he has planned doesn't involve a player...

 

I think you heard honesty. Don't know the guy. I will get to know him. Hope we are a good fit.

 

Sure, but what if Miller says "guys, I appreciate the offer, and I haven't made any decisions yet, but I really want to see what my options are in FA. If I can get a fat contract from a Cup contender, I'll probably take it, but if not, I'll probably come back to Buffalo."?

 

Probably the closest thing I've read to where miller's head really is.

 

Except for Girgensons.

 

This, to me, is the most intriguing element of an outside guy coming in. The organization and its fan base has, and has had, its sacred cows. Murray's are going to be different. Some of his personnel decisions are going to surprise us.

 

to be sure. the analytics stuff is real, and it's here to stay. but, to my ear, TM gave it only faint praise

 

I thought he was basically saying that analytics are just a way of measuring what he and all good scouts already see.

 

also it is very much in the plans to tank next season and go after mcdavid. even using the word "manipulate" in reference to you standings position when approaching the deadline..

 

I heard this too. They are not going enter the season planning to lose, but if they are going to miss the playoffs, They really want to avoid another year of picking 12th.

 

 

Like apus states....there is no longer value in something when everyone is chasing the same thing. If anything, I would use analytics at this point as a contrarian tool. A lot of it is common sense....some geek that never had the tools to play at a high level and who doesn't understand people, psychology, and what physical tools go into being an athlete....sure, he feels smart by spouting out some numbers that look like they might make sense. The real evaluator will look at the human being, and can probably confirm 80% of what the numbers are telling you, but also dismiss the crucial 20% because he has the common sense to see why certain results get skewed. Darcy was the classic spreadsheet guy. He never understood what made a player special and the synergy involved in identifying certain qualities over pure skill.

 

The real money is always made going against what the numbers say...not in chasing the numbers. You just have to be decisive and have nads....you won't always be right, but your rewards will be homeruns and your loss will be limited with discounted risk.

 

Yes, and Murray strikes me as a guy who gets that.

Edited January 10, 2014 by dudacek

[darksabre]

 

 

Hasn't it been said before that Miller's list is different from Pominville's in that it's submitted before the year begins? I know that some players have that type and some have the type where it's to be asked for. I thought I remember talks that Miller's is the former.

 

I honestly have no idea. I know we've discussed it here but I don't know if the specifics of the list are even public knowledge.

[dudacek]

 

 

I honestly have no idea. I know we've discussed it here but I don't know if the specifics of the list are even public knowledge.

 

I'm almost positive the list has already been submitted. There was a report that all Canadian teams are on the list that has been floating around the net, and many treat as gospel. I've never seen the source.

[Hoss]

 

My understanding is that all the Canadian teams are on the list.

 

If the report were true about him not wanting to go to Canada or not accepting a trade there, I think it'd be most likely that Miller only put the Canadian teams that need a goalie on his list. It wouldn't make much sense to put teams that definitely weren't trading for him on there.

 

In reality, anything about the list is just speculation since something like this is very hard to get info on.

 

He could use it like the baseball players do: put the only teams that might trade for him on the list so he can manipulate money and timing out of it.

[...]

 

 

I'm almost positive the list has already been submitted. There was a report that all Canadian teams are on the list that has been floating around the net, and many treat as gospel. I've never seen the source.

 

I think Regier said he had the list before he was canned; that Miller is supposed to submit the list at the beginning of each season.

[WildCard]

I'd be interested to hear what the league thinks on openly indicating a tank philosophy.

Likewise. I'm pretty sure the NBA had a big problem with this, and if I remember correctly their response was to implement the lottery. Since we already have one, and if it gets that obvious we are tanking, I suppose they'll just look at our ball for the 1st pick and say, "nope, ###### these guys." :lol:

 

That being said, I think it's becoming pretty obvious he intends to move/let Miller leave. There's no way we're this good without him, he's single-handedly won around 8 games for us. He leaves, and we lose maybe Moulson or Ott, and I can easily see another top 2 pick in 2015.

 

The question is, is this something we are going to be okay with? It sucks that we suck during the wrong draft year, and watching this is no fun, so are we prepared to strap on our ###### boots and do it all over again? I hate being pessimistic, but I think next year will be more painful to watch simply for the fact that there won't be so many organizational changes that lend all of this excitement in lieu of decent play.

[Hoss]

 

 

I'm almost positive the list has already been submitted. There was a report that all Canadian teams are on the list that has been floating around the net, and many treat as gospel. I've never seen the source.

 

It was Kypreos, I believe. The comment was actually a really quick one he said without any emphasis. I do remember whoever it was saying "he won't accept a trade to Canada" and nothing further. Which is why I'm lead to believe he would've been smart and put only the Canadian teams that might trade for him on the list.

 

 

Likewise. I'm pretty sure the NBA had a big problem with this, and if I remember correctly their response was to implement the lottery. Since we already have one, and if it gets that obvious we are tanking, I suppose they'll just look at our ball for the 1st pick and say, "nope, ###### these guys." :lol:

 

The question is, is this something we are going to be okay with? It sucks that we suck during the wrong draft year, and watching this is no fun, so are we prepared to strap on our ###### boots and do it all over again? I hate being pessimistic, but I think next year will be more painful to watch simply for the fact that there won't be so many organizational changes that lend all of this excitement in lieu of decent play.

 

The NHL implemented its lottery because of tanking, as well.

As far as "are we okay with this?" I think it's split. Some posters/fans are, some aren't. There are some who don't know about McDavid and might be okay with it if they knew.

I definitely am. McDavid (and even Eichel) is a world class talent that you will not acquire if you don't get him through the draft. This team, this FRANCHISE, is dying for a player like that to take them to the promised land. It'd be smart to try to position yourself to get him. Obviously it's not a guarantee is being in last only gives you a 25% chance (but it does guarantee you one of McDavid or Eichel). And then other teams are likely to tank, too.

[LastPommerFan]

This would be epic.

 

So if this is an 80s TV show, Murray is the no fun weapons expert, Pat is the guy with the funky plans, and Teddy is the affable wheelman. Now all we need is The Wild Card.

 

Time to bring Dennis Rodman in as the head scout for the North Korean League.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

 

 

Time to bring Dennis Rodman in as the head scout for the North Korean League.

 

Fact: 50% of Korean born NHL players have won the Stanley Cup

 

#Analytics