Hired: Tim Murray, GM and Craig Patrick, Advisor

[darksabre]

the dust gets kicked up because there are those who pimp and extol analytics to a point where it seems like advanced stats are equal to (even greater than) what TM called "hockey sense."

 

And those people drive me nuts. They watched that baseball movie with Jonah Hill and think science is basically the holy grail.

[That Aud Smell]

And those people drive me nuts. They watched that baseball movie with Jonah Hill and think science is basically the holy grail.

 

whether he intends it or not, White at WGR comes off that way.

[darksabre]

whether he intends it or not, White at WGR comes off that way.

 

For the record, I think Jeremy White is a pillock.

[apuszczalowski]

And those people drive me nuts. They watched that baseball movie with Jonah Hill and think science is basically the holy grail.

Thats why I never understood the constant love for Beene in Oakland. Sure, he was the first to use analytics or whatever and it worked, he was able to build a team on the cheap, but he is still without anything more then a couple of playoff series wins in his time there. Now every fan spouts off about WAR and Fwar and ERA+, etc about every player and almost every GM will look at these stats giving him no real advantage anymore since everyones going to be using it and it just means it will shift things so that those guys are going to become out of his price range and he will need to go find some other way to build on the cheap.

 

I'm not saying he hasn't done good, the guy is working under a huge budget restraint and built teams to get to the playoffs with these restraints, but I would have held off making the movie about him until he atleast won a championship with this method........

[Koomkie]

ICYMI, Good interview with Murray this morning on WGR: Tim Murray on the Howard Simon Show <24:36>

best interview i have heard so far. thanks for posting. it sounds to me as though we can say goodbye to Ott, Moulson, and Miller. he says they are great character guys, but he is smart enough to know we can replace them with other character veterans to lead the kids. also it is very much in the plans to tank next season and go after mcdavid. even using the word "manipulate" in reference to you standings position when approaching the deadline. must say that i really like the way he presents himself. no dodging. just answers honestly and it all makes good sense. also his opinion on player movement...he will be deciding who is in the lineup. answered that in one word "yes". so i guess grigo is getting sent back down for sure, seeing as though he doesnt want young guys playing 2 mins a game.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

The only analytics I want Murray worrying about is if he gets a better rebate buying 10, 1 litre bottles of Black Velvet, or 6, 1.75 litre bottles of Black Velvet.....

 

He said at the presser..."You have to know talent...you have to know people..."

 

Anybody can look at a spreadsheet...I want a guy that knows what variables go into a person and athlete that drive the spreadsheet results.

[ubkev]

Thats why I never understood the constant love for Beene in Oakland. Sure, he was the first to use analytics or whatever and it worked, he was able to build a team on the cheap, but he is still without anything more then a couple of playoff series wins in his time there. Now every fan spouts off about WAR and Fwar and ERA+, etc about every player and almost every GM will look at these stats giving him no real advantage anymore since everyones going to be using it and it just means it will shift things so that those guys are going to become out of his price range and he will need to go find some other way to build on the cheap.

 

I'm not saying he hasn't done good, the guy is working under a huge budget restraint and built teams to get to the playoffs with these restraints, but I would have held off making the movie about him until he atleast won a championship with this method........

 

Good post. I was just going to ask if the movie ends with the Yankees winning the world series.... again!

[PromoTheRobot]

ICYMI, Good interview with Murray this morning on WGR: Tim Murray on the Howard Simon Show <24:36>

 

Up till now I was hearing the Sabres could get good faster than folks think. Listening to this interview sounds like we are going to tank again in 2014-15.

 

PTR

[Robviously]

I heard the same thing -- he said advanced stats are of some use, but that hockey sense leads the evaluation process and is more important.

 

Predictably, Jeremy White has engaged several people on Twitter about how Murray expressed nothing but love for analytics.

Jeremy White spazzing out on Twitter is nothing new. He's a lot like Mike Schoop in that he can't handle people disagreeing with him.

[Claude_Verret]

The only analytics I want Murray worrying about is if he gets a better rebate buying 10, 1 litre bottles of Black Velvet, or 6, 1.75 litre bottles of Black Velvet.....

 

He said at the presser..."You have to know talent...you have to know people..."

 

Anybody can look at a spreadsheet...I want a guy that knows what variables go into a person and athlete that drive the spreadsheet results.

 

Gotta be able to do both. To shun hockey sense for analytics or vice versa puts any front office in today's NHL at a competitive disadvantage.

[sicknfla]

Love what I hear so far. As for the tank I think it is more just realizing that with this roster and with the current prospect pool we are not getting better anytime soon. Even if they wanted to compete next year its not happening.

 

I am fine with that. I can take another year of this as long as we know there is a plan. With this group I have confidence in the plan.

 

 

[TrueBlueGED]

Thats why I never understood the constant love for Beene in Oakland. Sure, he was the first to use analytics or whatever and it worked, he was able to build a team on the cheap, but he is still without anything more then a couple of playoff series wins in his time there. Now every fan spouts off about WAR and Fwar and ERA+, etc about every player and almost every GM will look at these stats giving him no real advantage anymore since everyones going to be using it and it just means it will shift things so that those guys are going to become out of his price range and he will need to go find some other way to build on the cheap.

 

I'm not saying he hasn't done good, the guy is working under a huge budget restraint and built teams to get to the playoffs with these restraints, but I would have held off making the movie about him until he atleast won a championship with this method........

Gotta be able to do both. To shun hockey sense for analytics or vice versa puts any front office in today's NHL at a competitive disadvantage.

 

The bold is precisely the point. Particularly in baseball, using analytics doesn't have the same advantage it did when it was first emerging...but NOT using it is most certainly a disadvantage.

[MDFan]

I'd imagine the type of teams Miller wouldn't want to go to are not the type of teams that would be renting a goalie anyway.

My understanding is that all the Canadian teams are on the list.

[nfreeman]

Jeremy White spazzing out on Twitter is nothing new. He's a lot like Mike Schoop in that he can't handle people disagreeing with him.

 

Ah, irony.

[MDFan]

to be sure. the analytics stuff is real, and it's here to stay. but, to my ear, TM gave it only faint praise -- said that a scout's or exec's hockey sense has to come first.

I believe his comments on "hockey sense" were not in relation to the scouts, but what he looks for in players. In other words, he was not referring to he scout's "hockey sense", but the player's, as an important part of the evaluation process for him. On analytics, he said it was possibly very useful for the casual observer, but for him, it was of some use but minor importance. Anyway, thats how I heard it.

[nucci]

It really begs the following question: what if Miller won't sign an extension before the deadline and the best they can get for him is a 2nd-rounder from a contender (i.e. a low 2nd-rounder)? Would you rather keep him for the rest of the year and try to re-sign him at the end of the season, which risks him leaving for zero return?

 

By, say, July 10, he and the team will know what's happened in the draft, which FAs they've brought in, any other moves, general direction of the franchise, and, most importantly, what Miller's options are in terms of cash and location.

 

I'm not sure what I would do.

I think if he doesn't re-sign before the deadline he's not signing during the off-season.

[Robviously]

Ah, irony.

Says the guy following me around the message board trying to pick a fight.

 

Irony indeed.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

 

 

Gotta be able to do both. To shun hockey sense for analytics or vice versa puts any front office in today's NHL at a competitive disadvantage.

 

Like apus states....there is no longer value in something when everyone is chasing the same thing. If anything, I would use analytics at this point as a contrarian tool. A lot of it is common sense....some geek that never had the tools to play at a high level and who doesn't understand people, psychology, and what physical tools go into being an athlete....sure, he feels smart by spouting out some numbers that look like they might make sense. The real evaluator will look at the human being, and can probably confirm 80% of what the numbers are telling you, but also dismiss the crucial 20% because he has the common sense to see why certain results get skewed. Darcy was the classic spreadsheet guy. He never understood what made a player special and the synergy involved in identifying certain qualities over pure skill.

 

The real money is always made going against what the numbers say...not in chasing the numbers. You just have to be decisive and have nads....you won't always be right, but your rewards will be homeruns and your loss will be limited with discounted risk.

[nfreeman]

Says the guy following me around the message board trying to pick a fight.

 

Irony indeed.

 

I didn't realize that responding to one of your posts constituted "following you around."

[Claude_Verret]

Like apus states....there is no longer value in something when everyone is chasing the same thing. If anything, I would use analytics at this point as a contrarian tool. A lot of it is common sense....some geek that never had the tools to play at a high level and who doesn't understand people, psychology, and what physical tools go into being an athlete....sure, he feels smart by spouting out some numbers that look like they might make sense. The real evaluator will look at the human being, and can probably confirm 80% of what the numbers are telling you, but also dismiss the crucial 20% because he has the common sense to see why certain results get skewed. Darcy was the classic spreadsheet guy. He never understood what made a player special and the synergy involved in identifying certain qualities over pure skill.

 

The real money is always made going against what the numbers say...not in chasing the numbers. You just have to be decisive and have nads....you won't always be right, but your rewards will be homeruns and your loss will be limited with discounted risk.

 

I couldn't disagree more. Everyone doesn't use analytics in the same way, just as one GM's hockey sense is likely tuned differently from another.

[SDS]

I believe his comments on "hockey sense" were not in relation to the scouts, but what he looks for in players. In other words, he was not referring to he scout's "hockey sense", but the player's, as an important part of the evaluation process for him. On analytics, he said it was possibly very useful for the casual observer, but for him, it was of some use but minor importance. Anyway, thats how I heard it.

 

that's the way I heard it...

[Robviously]

I didn't realize that responding to one of your posts constituted "following you around."

This isn't the first time. You randomly threw out some line about me having "temper tantrums" at the end of some GDT that I wasn't even posting in last month.

 

I avoid you in general. Seems better for us and better for the board. Let me know if you want to keep going.

[Brawndo]

I still trade him. He's testing free agency no matter what at that point. Regardless of whether he's choosing between us or a contender as a FA, we might as well get a little return for taking that risk.

 

I would as well. If a second rounder is the best the Sabres can get, make it one in the 2015 Draft, which TM said was deeper.

 

Another option would be a conditional second rounder that becomes a first if Miller resigns.

[26CornerBlitz]

@SunGarrioch

Murray says on @SNHockeyCentral at noon that the club "will probably" remove interim tag from Ted Nolan soon. #Sabres

[nfreeman]

This isn't the first time. You randomly threw out some line about me having "temper tantrums" at the end of some GDT that I wasn't even posting in last month.

 

I avoid you in general. Seems better for us and better for the board. Let me know if you want to keep going.

 

That's correct. I did make that comment, which I think is a fair description of how you reacted to those who disagreed with you on the issue of whether to tank (which reaction is also what spurred my "irony" post).

 

In any case I'll let it go if you will.