GAME DISCUSSION THREAD GDT: Buffalo at Minnesota 1-2-14 at 8:00 PM EST

[inkman]

Luke Adam and TJ Brennan are lords of the AHL...

Not to mention Ennis, Hodgson, Foligno, porter would all be over a point a game players. I can only imagine what Moulson & Myers might do.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

When was the last time Myers had one of those "bad Myers" moments?

He's been incredibly consistent and dependable in his zone the past month or two.

If we had a few forwards his point totals and his plus-minus would be looking a lot better.

I know its not saying much, but has there been a better Sabre lately?

Nolan magic?

[inkman]

Nolan magic?

I'd say the one player who has exibited what Nolan can get out of a guy, it's 57. He's a thoroughbred, take off the saddle and let him run. Ron Ron was trying to lasso him and corral him into something he's not and Lindy was just tightening the noose around his nads making Tyler buck like a nad tied bronco.

[TrueBlueGED]

Honest question - how would this team fare in the AHL?

 

What are the Sabres on pace for right now? Because around 50 points is the replacement level where an NHL team could be replaced by a good AHL team.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

 

 

What are the Sabres on pace for right now? Because around 50 points is the replacement level where an NHL team could be replaced by a good AHL team.

 

Says who?

 

 

[...]

I think, as things progress, that I expect to see something done about the recent regression, rather than the complacency we're used to.

 

I mean, that's why Rolston and Regier were fired, right? Because they lacked the ability to fix the problem, while Nolan and PLF were brought in to do something.

 

I fully expect these guys to do something rather than sit on their hands and take it.

 

Isn't it funny how Ruff was dealing with the same issues seasons ago with a fundamentally completely different roster? I, as an outsider, fail to see the connecting thread(s), but the issues are so similar. The only thread is the lack of talent and intensity...and that these are Regier's players...scouted by the same scout leadership which still advises the front office.

[Hoss]

I think, as things progress, that I expect to see something done about the recent regression, rather than the complacency we're used to.

 

I mean, that's why Rolston and Regier were fired, right? Because they lacked the ability to fix the problem, while Nolan and PLF were brought in to do something.

 

I fully expect these guys to do something rather than sit on their hands and take it.

 

Isn't it funny how Ruff was dealing with the same issues seasons ago with a fundamentally completely different roster? I, as an outsider, fail to see the connecting thread(s), but the issues are so similar. The only thread is the lack of talent and intensity...and that these are Regier's players...scouted by the same scout leadership which still advises the front office.

 

Or maybe, just maybe, the franchise needed a bandaid to get the boos away for a little bit.

[JJFIVEOH]

Says who?

 

Advanced statistics.

[TrueBlueGED]

Says who?

 

The stats you don't believe in (being serious, not meant to be snarky at all). Using GVT, you could expect a replacement level team (basically one full of good AHLers, or fringe NHLers--think spare defensemen and forwards, not guys who play regularly) to be outscored by an average of 1.5 goals per game in the NHL, resulting in a season-long goal differential of -123, and somewhere around 40-50 points. That's a historically bad team, which the Sabres were on pace for; they've picked it up recently and are currently on pace for 52 points and a -90 goal differential (no, I don't think they'll finish that poorly in either category). So they'd probably be the best or among the best in the AHL, but I don't think they'd be winning every game by 3 either.

 

No, I don't think GVT is perfect and yes, its calculation includes some questionable (at best) assumptions (causing it to undervalue defensive contributions). But leaving numbers aside, I think we can logically look at it and come to a similar conclusion. Earlier in the year the Sabres were on pace to be the worst team in decades, and even then the only other teams worse were expansion teams. An expansion team probably isn't much better than the top AHL teams.

[Hoss]

If we're talking AHL all-star team then MAYBE they squeak out a few victories. But the original question was the AHL teams in general. Not a mix and match.

[JJFIVEOH]

I need to pull out my trusty advanced stats decoder calculator and figure out who would win a best of 7 series between NHL Hall of Fame Alumni between the ages of 47-59 and the current Team USA Women's Hockey team.

[kishoph]

Luke Adam had 14 goals and 6 assist in 18 games with the Amerks, he has 1 goal in 9 games with the Sabres. Linus Omark had 14 goals and 15 assist in 29 games with the O.C. Barons, he does not have a point with the Sabres in 5 games. As bad as the Sabres seem at times, they would walk all over any AHL team, as would any NHL team.

[HopefulFuture]

And the tank continues..........

[26CornerBlitz]

POSTGAME LINKS

 

01/03 – SABRES DISAPPOINTED WITH EFFORT IN MINNESOTA (Chris Ryndak – Sabres.com)

 

01/03 – Brian Duff and Dan Dunleavy recap the Sabres 4-1 loss to the Wild <2:56>

 

01/03 – Ted Nolan speaks with the media following the Sabres 4-1 loss to the Wild <1:58>

 

01/03 – Steve Ott speaks with the media following the Sabres 4-1 loss to the Wild <2:32>

 

01/03 – Jamie McBain speaks with Brian Duff following the Sabres 4-1 loss to the Wild <1:48>

 

01/03 – Christian Ehrhoff speaks with the media following the Sabres 4-1 loss to the Wild <1:32>

 

01/03 – Ryan Miller speaks with the media following the Sabres 4-1 loss to the Wild <1:33>

[Jsixspd]

What a terrible road trip for the Sabres. 1 goal scored in two games - and I honestly thought they would be shut out last night too. That's the single biggest problem with the team - the lack of scoring ability. There are a lot of shots, but few make it into the net.

 

Ah well, at least Pominville didn't score the game-winning goal.

[sicknfla]

Luke Adam had 14 goals and 6 assist in 18 games with the Amerks, he has 1 goal in 9 games with the Sabres. Linus Omark had 14 goals and 15 assist in 29 games with the O.C. Barons, he does not have a point with the Sabres in 5 games. As bad as the Sabres seem at times, they would walk all over any AHL team, as would any NHL team.

 

The problem is only 1/3 of our players are true NHL players. Hence why our forwards that played last night have a combined have 38 goals in 41 games. Put Cody back in and we have 45 or so depending who sits.

 

 

[Eleven]

The stats you don't believe in (being serious, not meant to be snarky at all). Using GVT, you could expect a replacement level team (basically one full of good AHLers, or fringe NHLers--think spare defensemen and forwards, not guys who play regularly) to be outscored by an average of 1.5 goals per game in the NHL, resulting in a season-long goal differential of -123, and somewhere around 40-50 points. That's a historically bad team, which the Sabres were on pace for; they've picked it up recently and are currently on pace for 52 points and a -90 goal differential (no, I don't think they'll finish that poorly in either category). So they'd probably be the best or among the best in the AHL, but I don't think they'd be winning every game by 3 either.

 

No, I don't think GVT is perfect and yes, its calculation includes some questionable (at best) assumptions (causing it to undervalue defensive contributions). But leaving numbers aside, I think we can logically look at it and come to a similar conclusion. Earlier in the year the Sabres were on pace to be the worst team in decades, and even then the only other teams worse were expansion teams. An expansion team probably isn't much better than the top AHL teams.

 

WTF is GVT?

[Two or less]

Luke Adam had 14 goals and 6 assist in 18 games with the Amerks, he has 1 goal in 9 games with the Sabres. Linus Omark had 14 goals and 15 assist in 29 games with the O.C. Barons, he does not have a point with the Sabres in 5 games. As bad as the Sabres seem at times, they would walk all over any AHL team, as would any NHL team.

 

Not sure why you went out to add that part, considering we're the worst team in the NHL as is, so if we can walk all over AHL teams, then of course anyone else would too.

[Derrico]

Johan Larsson:

 

19 games with Buffalo: 0g, 1a, 1pt

13 games with Rochester: 2g, 7a, 9pt.

 

I was just going to post about Larrsson. Man, he looked aweful out there IMO. He had a good first shift and then was soft the rest of the game. He is slightly undersized and doesn't have the slickest of hands; his game is bringing a ton of energy and battling hard in the corners. I saw him give up on a half dozen plays last night. He won't even be an NHL regular let alone 3rd line contributor if he has many more games like that....against his old team too :doh:

[apuszczalowski]

What a terrible road trip for the Sabres. 1 goal scored in two games - and I honestly thought they would be shut out last night too. That's the single biggest problem with the team - the lack of scoring ability. There are a lot of shots, but few make it into the net.

 

Ah well, at least Pominville didn't score the game-winning goal.

Unless this is sarcasim, he had the 2nd goal, which would be the winner...............

[Jsixspd]

Unless this is sarcasim, he had the 2nd goal, which would be the winner...............

 

Well, I was being sarcastic. I thought Miller should have stopped that - he had a good look at Pominville coming in. I guess Jason just knows Miller too well. Miller's SV% was .903, a bit below average for him.

 

Wild was far more efficient at scoring - 31 shots and 4 goals. Contrast that with the Sabres - 20 shots and 1 goal. Wild had a 13% success rate, vs only 5% for the Sabres.

[Jsixspd]

And to continue the conversation, actually Buffalo's defense was above average last night - they've averaged 34.5 shots allowed per game, 31 is about 10% better than average. Tyler Myers looked fine out there (can't believe I'm saying this).

 

The team's biggest problem in my opinion - Regier and Ruffton loaded the deck with too many AHL players who can't score in the NHL. Hopefully those draft picks we have in the bank from sending our scorers out the door (Vanek, Pominville) will pay dividends. Although if you already HAVE players who are 30 goal a year players, does it make sense to trade them in the hopes of drafting another 30 goal player to replace them with?

[HopefulFuture]

And to continue the conversation, actually Buffalo's defense was above average last night - they've averaged 34.5 shots allowed per game, 31 is about 10% better than average. Tyler Myers looked fine out there (can't believe I'm saying this).

 

The team's biggest problem in my opinion - Regier and Ruffton loaded the deck with too many AHL players who can't score in the NHL. Hopefully those draft picks we have in the bank from sending our scorers out the door (Vanek, Pominville) will pay dividends. Although if you already HAVE players who are 30 goal a year players, does it make sense to trade them in the hopes of drafting another 30 goal player to replace them with?

 

Hard to believe, but yes, yes it does. Vanek, Pominville, Stafford and Ennis were supposed to light the lamp. Vanek and Pommers held up their respective end of the bargain, Stafford and Ennis not so much. The real problem was supporting cast players from that team, not enough of em.

 

So, you trade away your 2 puck potters in the hopes of getting those supporting cast players, and they have in Girgensons and Larsson. We'll have to wait a couple of years to see what other dividends they reap from those deals, but along with jettisoning your scoring you almost assure a high end draft pick to add near or at elite scoring talent. In the end, they get a younger core to build with at a better rate of projected return on the over all product, they did so by addressing D first, now as they come into the high side draft picks, they are sure to address the scoring forward ranks. Is it a risk? Absolutely. But it sure beats finishing in the 9 to 12 spot conference wise year after year, not having the ability to truly contend for the Cup.

[sicknfla]

 

 

Hard to believe, but yes, yes it does. Vanek, Pominville, Stafford and Ennis were supposed to light the lamp. Vanek and Pommers held up their respective end of the bargain, Stafford and Ennis not so much. The real problem was supporting cast players from that team, not enough of em.

 

So, you trade away your 2 puck potters in the hopes of getting those supporting cast players, and they have in Girgensons and Larsson. We'll have to wait a couple of years to see what other dividends they reap from those deals, but along with jettisoning your scoring you almost assure a high end draft pick to add near or at elite scoring talent. In the end, they get a younger core to build with at a better rate of projected return on the over all product, they did so by addressing D first, now as they come into the high side draft picks, they are sure to address the scoring forward ranks. Is it a risk? Absolutely. But it sure beats finishing in the 9 to 12 spot conference wise year after year, not having the ability to truly contend for the Cup.

 

The top pick this year is not a natural goal scorer. Solid 2 way player yes but not a scorer. At least not from what I have seen at WJHC. The top pick - the kind that can step right in and have impact in the NHL should be dominate in Jr's. He is far from dominate. Not the best year for the tank.

[Derrico]

The top pick this year is not a natural goal scorer. Solid 2 way player yes but not a scorer. At least not from what I have seen at WJHC. The top pick - the kind that can step right in and have impact in the NHL should be dominate in Jr's. He is far from dominate. Not the best year for the tank.

 

Although I completely agree that next year is the superior tank year, this hockey team could use a legit projected #1 line two way player as much as we could use a goal scorer.