Armia, Grigorenko, Number 1 Draft Pick

[CallawaySabres]

They've got $28.7MM in payroll for next year, with a $71.1MM cap -- so $42.4MM to work with. If they buy out Leino and Stafford, that's another $8.5MM -- for a total of $50.9MM.

 

So maybe:

 

Ott -- $3.5MM

Ennis -- $4MM

Foligno -- $2MM

Luker -- $1MM

Tallinder -- $3MM

McNabb -- $1MM

 

Miller -- $6.5MM

 

Callahan -- $7MM

Stastny -- $7MM

Vrbata -- $5MM

Phaneuf -- $8.5MM

 

That's $49.5MM for the RFAs and the UFAs, with, I think, enough of a premium over market value to get the UFAs to come here.

 

Go get 'em Patty.

 

Well that certainly is more interesting to look at......a lot to think about for sure.

[Derrico]

Realistically, I'm not sure Tank Nation can even live on next year. Looking at that list nfreeman provided we could realistically sign all those guys and the numbers don't seem unreasonable. I could see us being like the Florida Pathers circa 2011 I think it was where they had to spend a bunch of money just to get to the floor and aquired guys like Brian Campbell and then made the playoffs the next year. There is just too much money for us to spend to not be better next season.

 

I don't want to go back to mediocrity :(

[nfreeman]

I love everything but Phaneuf. NO chance I'm giving him 8.5 mil per. We've got some good young Dmen I'd happily give the ice time too and just focus on forwards. Next year we have The Hoff, Myers, Pysyk, Risto, Zadorov and Weber. Possibly also McNabb fighting for a spot and is McBain still under contract? Although Phaneuf is a big name and plays decently physical with a hard shot from the point he still has way too many giveaways in his own end to really be trusted. If I'm paying anyone over 7 mil a year it better be a top 6 forward.

 

We need a rock to lean on back there. Phaneuf isn't a truly elite defenseman, but he's very good, tough, experienced, plays a lot of tough minutes, can blast it from the point, fights, and is a leader (and btw how nice would it be to bring in 2 current team captains in Phaneuf and Callahan?). He'd also take pressure off of Myers.

 

As for the other defensemen in the system, Weber and McBain are marginal players and Risto and Zadorov will be best served by playing in Rochester for a couple of years (and McNabb and Pysyk by playing 3rd-pairing minutes and opponents).

 

I agree that $8.5MM is too much, but he ain't coming here without being overpaid.

 

Realistically, I'm not sure Tank Nation can even live on next year. Looking at that list nfreeman provided we could realistically sign all those guys and the numbers don't seem unreasonable. I could see us being like the Florida Pathers circa 2011 I think it was where they had to spend a bunch of money just to get to the floor and aquired guys like Brian Campbell and then made the playoffs the next year. There is just too much money for us to spend to not be better next season.

 

I don't want to go back to mediocrity :(

 

It doesn't have to be mediocrity. That lineup I roughed out is a solid playoff team that can play hard, entertaining winning hockey for the next few years while guys like Risto, Zadorov, Armia, Griggy, Zemgus, Foligno and the other forwards they've drafted in the last couple of years develop into consistent NHL players.

 

Isn't that better than another atrocious season that may or may not end up with the Sabres having a 25% chance at McKinnon?

 

You only live once.

[TrueBlueGED]

Freeman, I admire your gusto and unwillingness to endure a long rebuild. My disagreement with a short term fix (what I'd consider a short term fix anyway) aside, I don't believe any team that boasts Stastny and Ennis as its top two centers is a solid playoff team. Fringe at best. IMO that's a team built with wingers that emulates every season of disappointment since Black Sunday...and Roy and Connolly in their prime were better than Stastny and Ennis are now.

[Derrico]

Isn't that better than another atrocious season that may or may not end up with the Sabres having a 25% chance at McKinnon?

 

You only live once.

 

I know I keep harping on next years draft but the beauty of it is there isn't just one. I think you mean McDavid but Jack Eichel, Dylan Strom and Matthew Brazal are all considered to be near franchise players. I obviously haven't seen everyone of them play every game but many reports I've read say that all four of them would certainly be clear #1's if in this years draft. Maybe it's my yougish age of 28 saying this but I'm hoping I have a few years left in my life. Between the Bills and Sabres it's been nearly mediocrity for the past 15 years between those franchises save for a couple of Sabres seasons. I want to have that one or even two franchise players for a change. Heck Tampa Bay is useless most years but atleast their fans get to see Stamkos play because they were horrible for a season.

[Iron Crotch]

WADR to the optimistic UFA scenarios posted above, each UFA has earned the right to go wherever he chooses. Short of paying a king's ransom, I think it is wildly optimistic to assume any top free agent would want to sign here versus a team with a realistic shot at the Cup. As well, with the cap increasing as much as it is, I think many of the top potential free agents will end up resigning with their current clubs.

[LGR4GM]

I don't want an 8.5mil Dion Phaneuf anywhere near this team... sorry. Hell I don't want Phaneuf here period.

[TrueBlueGED]

I know I keep harping on next years draft but the beauty of it is there isn't just one. I think you mean McDavid but Jack Eichel, Dylan Strom and Matthew Brazal are all considered to be near franchise players. I obviously haven't seen everyone of them play every game but many reports I've read say that all four of them would certainly be clear #1's if in this years draft. Maybe it's my yougish age of 28 saying this but I'm hoping I have a few years left in my life. Between the Bills and Sabres it's been nearly mediocrity for the past 15 years between those franchises save for a couple of Sabres seasons. I want to have that one or even two franchise players for a change. Heck Tampa Bay is useless most years but atleast their fans get to see Stamkos play because they were horrible for a season.

 

Preach on!

 

[nfreeman]

Freeman, I admire your gusto and unwillingness to endure a long rebuild. My disagreement with a short term fix (what I'd consider a short term fix anyway) aside, I don't believe any team that boasts Stastny and Ennis as its top two centers is a solid playoff team. Fringe at best. IMO that's a team built with wingers that emulates every season of disappointment since Black Sunday...and Roy and Connolly in their prime were better than Stastny and Ennis are now.

 

Well, I'm not committed to Ennis as a top 2 center -- I think he'll be re-signed at a reasonable RFA contract and in any case can flex to wing if a good center becomes available. In any case I think that Stastny-Hodgson-Ennis/other better center is a creditable top 3 group of centers in the absence of a true #1.

 

I know I keep harping on next years draft but the beauty of it is there isn't just one. I think you mean McDavid but Jack Eichel, Dylan Strom and Matthew Brazal are all considered to be near franchise players. I obviously haven't seen everyone of them play every game but many reports I've read say that all four of them would certainly be clear #1's if in this years draft. Maybe it's my yougish age of 28 saying this but I'm hoping I have a few years left in my life. Between the Bills and Sabres it's been nearly mediocrity for the past 15 years between those franchises save for a couple of Sabres seasons. I want to have that one or even two franchise players for a change. Heck Tampa Bay is useless most years but atleast their fans get to see Stamkos play because they were horrible for a season.

 

You're right -- I meant McDavid. And I'm not going to pretend I know anything about any of those other guys, but McDavid is the guy being described as a generational talent -- i.e. the kind of talent that can lift a downtrodden franchise up. Even assuming the other guys are potentially great players, they will still most likely need at least 3 years after being drafted before they can reasonably be expected to be cornerstone-type players.

[dudacek]

My plan involves another year of suffering.

 

I finish the sell-off at the deadline: Ott and Moulson gone for picks/prospects.

I offer Miller an outrageous contract. When he turns it down, he joins them.

 

At the draft, I pick the best forward available with our first pick, or leverage a slight trade down if someone wants Ekblad and still gives us a high-end forward in the process.

I also try to use our wealth of second-rounders and prospects to leverage a second young potentially high-end forward. It might be another top 10 pick, but it also could be a pending RFA (O'Reilly, Johansen, Braydon Schenn, Berglund, Eller, Schwartz), or a player maybe in need of a move (Evander Kane for example) or an outright prospect.

 

I also would have tried for one of these types at the trade deadline.

Everyone on our roster is available in one of these deals for the right price, but Myers and Girgensons would require overpayments.

 

When free agency hits, I'm another one on the Callahan bandwagon - big money, massive overpayment, no problem. He replaces and upgrades Ott, sets the tone for the kids and will still be there when they get good. Failing Callahan, I look at David Bolland or David Legwand or take another run at Ott.

 

I would also throw short-term big money at someone who can score goals: Steens, Marleaus or Vaneks are probably not going to want to be here, but I would look hard at Moulson, Vrbata, Alfredsson, Gionta,Michalek, Grabovski, Setoguchi, Gaborik, Cammelari, or Stempniak. There are a lot of them out there.

 

I throw a four-year overpayment offer at the feet of Dan Girardi or Brooks Orpik.

 

And I would look at a good depth vet or two, like a Jay McClement who can play on the third or fourth line.

 

Ennis gets a Hodgson type contract if he plays like he has the past couple weeks, a bridge deal if he doesn't.

D'Agostini, Tallinder Sulzer, and McBain are let go, Leino is bought out.

Stafford likely stays to help us reach the floor in the small hope a contract year brings out the best in him.

 

Top nine would drop Ott, Leino, Moulson and D'Agostini for two free agents, a trade acquisition and the best of Adam, Armia, Girgorenko and our first pick. Larsson and a free agent get depth roles, with a chance to move up.

 

Tallinder, Sulzer and McBain are out for a free agent, McNabb and the best of Risto and Zadorov.

 

Enroth and Hackett get their shot in goal.

 

This keeps us in contention for McDavid while letting the kids get better in a good environment.

And it puts us in a good position to make some bigger trades and/or free agents in the summer of 2015.

[TrueBlueGED]

GM Dudacek > GM Freeman :)

 

FWIW, I think we have a much better chance of drafting Reinhart and McDavid than Callahan reaching free agency, let alone signing here.

[Derrico]

Well, I'm not committed to Ennis as a top 2 center -- I think he'll be re-signed at a reasonable RFA contract and in any case can flex to wing if a good center becomes available. In any case I think that Stastny-Hodgson-Ennis/other better center is a creditable top 3 group of centers in the absence of a true #1.

 

You're right -- I meant McDavid. And I'm not going to pretend I know anything about any of those other guys, but McDavid is the guy being described as a generational talent -- i.e. the kind of talent that can lift a downtrodden franchise up. Even assuming the other guys are potentially great players, they will still most likely need at least 3 years after being drafted before they can reasonably be expected to be cornerstone-type players.

 

I can't say for sure how good those players are going to be but I'm not sure it will take them 3 years to play well. Even so, we're looking at a full blown rebuild and I'm willing to wait that out knowing we a franchise player (if not a generational player in McDavid). I don't want to tank every year, just get me throught the rest of this season and next. If we end up with Reinhart, Dal Colle type guy now and a McDavid or atleast Eichel next year we are set. By that time our D should be up to speed with Risto, Zad and Pysyk and hopefully Myers has taken the next step by then. We would then have a great, young, homegrown core with all of them making reasonable rookie deal money. That will leave big money for some free agents who now take us serious.

 

Keep up the fight True Blue!

[Eleven]

Just like how the Isles rebuilt around Tavares, Neiderreiter, and Bailey. Brilliant.

[Derrico]

Just like how the Isles rebuilt around Tavares, Neiderreiter, and Bailey. Brilliant.

 

Bailey went 9th overall and Neiderreiter was 5th. You can't 'tank' your way to 9th pick and expect a top flight player, that's the point of having to sustain a complete bottom out for two years (and why it's so difficult). You need top 5 and moreso top 3 picks. I'd take JT in a heartbeat. Plus their owner is cheap and won't spend the money necessary to surround JT with real talent. Even the Vanek trade they gave away Moulson and needed Buffalo to pay a portion of Vaneks salary so the money in and money out was near even.

[TrueBlueGED]

Just like how the Isles rebuilt around Tavares, Neiderreiter, and Bailey. Brilliant.

 

Yea, building around Kane and Toews sounds terrible. Seriously, let's stop pretending drafting high is doomed to fail while signing a couple UFAs automatically turns us into Montreal.

[nfreeman]

Yea, building around Kane and Toews sounds terrible. Seriously, let's stop pretending drafting high is doomed to fail while signing a couple UFAs automatically turns us into Montreal.

 

I don't think anyone is saying it's doomed to fail -- I just think there is far too much confidence among certain quarters here that it's guaranteed to succeed.

 

Let's assume the Sabres get the #2 this year and the #2 next year. Are the 2nd-best forwards in the 2014 and 2015 drafts supposed to be as good as Toews and Kane -- which is, as I've said previously, a near-generational combo?

 

If you sign Callahan, Vrbata, Stastny and Phaneuf, you know what you're getting -- quality NHL players that can immediately play major roles on a playoff team. Other than McDavid, which the Sabres might, at best, have a 25% chance at getting, can we say the same about any of the guys in the next 2 drafts? In fact, we can be pretty confident that this is not the case for those guys.

 

Also, even if we adopt my GM plan (which I think is better than Dudacek's -- so there), it won't affect the Sabres' draft status in 2014 -- only in 2015.

 

Bottom line is that the Sabres will almost certainly have a top-3 pick this year, in addition to the other stockpile of picks and prospects. Do we really have to waste another year of everyone's lives for a pretty low shot at McDavid?

[Taro T]

I don't think anyone is saying it's doomed to fail -- I just think there is far too much confidence among certain quarters here that it's guaranteed to succeed.

 

Let's assume the Sabres get the #2 this year and the #2 next year. Are the 2nd-best forwards in the 2014 and 2015 drafts supposed to be as good as Toews and Kane -- which is, as I've said previously, a near-generational combo?

 

If you sign Callahan, Vrbata, Stastny and Phaneuf, you know what you're getting -- quality NHL players that can immediately play major roles on a playoff team. Other than McDavid, which the Sabres might, at best, have a 25% chance at getting, can we say the same about any of the guys in the next 2 drafts? In fact, we can be pretty confident that this is not the case for those guys.

Also, even if we adopt my GM plan (which I think is better than Dudacek's -- so there), it won't affect the Sabres' draft status in 2014 -- only in 2015.

 

Bottom line is that the Sabres will almost certainly have a top-3 pick this year, in addition to the other stockpile of picks and prospects. Do we really have to waste another year of everyone's lives for a pretty low shot at McDavid?

And if there's any justice, the Isles' pick will be the 1 that gives Buffalo a 25% chance at McDavid.

[dudacek]

With all due respect to Freeman, by handing out a bunch of long term deals to veterans, he's married us to a core that in his own words lacks an elite player.

I'd rather keep some of my cards to chase an elite player in 2015, be it another top 3 pick, a guy we acquire with all the young talent we've accumulated, or a big-time free agent with our cap space, and a more attractive team to sign with.

[Robviously]

I don't think anyone is saying it's doomed to fail -- I just think there is far too much confidence among certain quarters here that it's guaranteed to succeed.

 

Let's assume the Sabres get the #2 this year and the #2 next year. Are the 2nd-best forwards in the 2014 and 2015 drafts supposed to be as good as Toews and Kane -- which is, as I've said previously, a near-generational combo?

 

If you sign Callahan, Vrbata, Stastny and Phaneuf, you know what you're getting -- quality NHL players that can immediately play major roles on a playoff team. Other than McDavid, which the Sabres might, at best, have a 25% chance at getting, can we say the same about any of the guys in the next 2 drafts? In fact, we can be pretty confident that this is not the case for those guys.

 

Also, even if we adopt my GM plan (which I think is better than Dudacek's -- so there), it won't affect the Sabres' draft status in 2014 -- only in 2015.

 

Bottom line is that the Sabres will almost certainly have a top-3 pick this year, in addition to the other stockpile of picks and prospects. Do we really have to waste another year of everyone's lives for a pretty low shot at McDavid?

There is NO ONE here who claims that drafting high is guaranteed to succeed. NO ONE.

 

The "guarantee" is entirely your construct to make a point.

[LastPommerFan]

Neither of these plans is mutually exclusive. Unless your point is to avoid signing talent in order to lose more games next year, signing 5-6 year FA deals this off season will not harm our ability to re-sign our developing talent. By the time they reach UFA, the FA deals we sign this summer will be ending.

[dudacek]

Neither of these plans is mutually exclusive. Unless your point is to avoid signing talent in order to lose more games next year, signing 5-6 year FA deals this off season will not harm our ability to re-sign our developing talent. By the time they reach UFA, the FA deals we sign this summer will be ending.

 

That's certainly not my point, and I don't think the plans are dissimilar.

I think Freeman' puts us in much better shape next year without ruining our future.

I think mine requires more patience, and may not have a payoff if we whiff on our picks.

But I also think it has a better chance of paying off in a cup.

[nfreeman]

 

 

That's certainly not my point, and I don't think the plans are dissimilar.

I think Freeman' puts us in much better shape next year without ruining our future.

I think mine requires more patience, and may not have a payoff if we whiff on our picks.

But I also think it has a better chance of paying off in a cup.

 

But isn't the only difference that I want to start this summer and you want to tank again next year in order to get one more top 3 pick?

 

 

There is NO ONE here who claims that drafting high is guaranteed to succeed. NO ONE.

 

The "guarantee" is entirely your construct to make a point.

 

Ok. So let me ask you to articulate your view, preferably in a friendly-hockey-talk tone.

[dudacek]

 

 

But isn't the only difference that I want to start this summer and you want to tank again next year in order to get one more top 3 pick?

 

 

That's only half of it. The other half is I don't want to be hitched long-term to Phaneuf and Stastny, because they will get in the way of adding "better" talent the following year, like Spezza, Toews, Kane, Ryan, or any trade bait that may emerge.

[nfreeman]

Neither of these plans is mutually exclusive. Unless your point is to avoid signing talent in order to lose more games next year, signing 5-6 year FA deals this off season will not harm our ability to re-sign our developing talent. By the time they reach UFA, the FA deals we sign this summer will be ending.

 

I will say that Dudacek is right that my plan doesn't leave us with much cap space for an elite player that might pop loose in 2015. For that reason I could be persuaded to forego Phaneuf -- although Orpik, in Dudacek's plan, will cost at least $5MM, so there wouldn't be much savings there.

 

But I'd be very happy to add Orpik.

[TrueBlueGED]

I don't think anyone is saying it's doomed to fail -- I just think there is far too much confidence among certain quarters here that it's guaranteed to succeed.

 

Let's assume the Sabres get the #2 this year and the #2 next year. Are the 2nd-best forwards in the 2014 and 2015 drafts supposed to be as good as Toews and Kane -- which is, as I've said previously, a near-generational combo?

 

If you sign Callahan, Vrbata, Stastny and Phaneuf, you know what you're getting -- quality NHL players that can immediately play major roles on a playoff team. Other than McDavid, which the Sabres might, at best, have a 25% chance at getting, can we say the same about any of the guys in the next 2 drafts? In fact, we can be pretty confident that this is not the case for those guys.

 

Also, even if we adopt my GM plan (which I think is better than Dudacek's -- so there), it won't affect the Sabres' draft status in 2014 -- only in 2015.

 

Bottom line is that the Sabres will almost certainly have a top-3 pick this year, in addition to the other stockpile of picks and prospects. Do we really have to waste another year of everyone's lives for a pretty low shot at McDavid?

 

Nobody is outright saying it, but when people say "yea that worked for Edmonton" or "I don't want to be Columbus" it certainly comes off as dooming the plan to failure, and not only failure, but the worst case scenario. Nobody wants to be Edmonton or Columbus, and those of us advocating a tank job are well aware that outcome is a possibility...but we choose to look at it the other way: we want to be Chicago, and that's probably not happening without drafting high a couple of times. We're willing to risk becoming Edmonton if it means a chance at being Chicago.

 

And it's not only about McDavid (granted, that's the ideal) because as Derrico mentioned earlier, that draft is far from McDavid or bust--there's a handful of franchise-caliber prospects.

 

With all due respect to Freeman, by handing out a bunch of long term deals to veterans, he's married us to a core that in his own words lacks an elite player.

I'd rather keep some of my cards to chase an elite player in 2015, be it another top 3 pick, a guy we acquire with all the young talent we've accumulated, or a big-time free agent with our cap space, and a more attractive team to sign with.

 

IMO this is the inherent flaw in Freeman's plan (and other similar plans which have been proposed): you still lack that franchise player. Here's how I look at it: Callahan, Stastny, Vrbata, Phaneuf...can any of those guys be the best player on a championship team? I don't think they can. In order to convince them to come here, I think we're all in agreement you have to wildly overpay, probably to the point of franchise player money. I think all of them (well save for Stastny...I have no idea why people are interested in him anymore) could be valuable contributors on a Cup team, but I wouldn't want any of them as my go-to player. I have no doubt Freeman's plan would field a competitive team, one that would make the playoffs regularly, but I think it maxes out at a 5-8 seed and one series victory. And that's without getting into the major problem at center ice.

 

Bottom line is I want a perennial contender, not a perennially competitive team. And I'm willing to risk falling into a bottomless pit to get there.