GM Speculation

[LGR4GM]

The draft.

 

Based on your logic, it's okay if he hasn't done any good as long as he hasn't done any harm. That's not how management works. You have to have a positive impact.

Can you be more specific and I haven't really said to much about Devine because I am trying to think critically on the issue. What about the draft? He took over in 2008 as Director of Amateur Scouting correct? So the 2008 - 2013 Drafts can be tied directly to him and his staff. Starting in 2011 the Scouting department was expanded so we have the 2011 - 2013 draft under Pegula. So what about his drafting is the concern?

 

The talent level of the team is poor, he's been working as a key member of a front office that put this group together. Plus, the new GM is entitled to surround himself with his own guys.

I agree the new GM can do what he wants in regards to Nolan or Devine but I am curious as to what Devine has done to warrant his expulsion other than a new GM wanting his own guys. Basically I want to see how others have viewed the Drafting on this team from 2008 - 2013

[Hoss]

The draft has apparently been Devine's since 2007 when he became the director of amateur scouting. In that time they haven't really had a lot of hits. Or any big ones for that matter. He hasn't really done a terrible job, but he hasn't done a lot of positive. The jury is still out on most of his picks. But he hasn't improved the team in his time. Let the new GM hand pick his own guy. Get the last bit of Regier's tenure out of the front office.

[LGR4GM]

Now did Devine take charge in the 2007-2008 season or was he in place for the 2007 draft as well? I am just trying to get the timeline right before I look over the draft picks and such

[Hoss]

Now did Devine take charge in the 2007-2008 season or was he in place for the 2007 draft as well? I am just trying to get the timeline right before I look over the draft picks and such

 

He was hired in 06 if I'm not crazy. So he was in charge for the 07 draft.

 

 

And you have to consider that he was the scout responsible for Quebec when we selected Zagrapan.

[SabresBillsFan]

Again what issues are Kevin Devine to blame for. We need to answer the 1st question before we discuss the 2nd one.

I would not get rid of Devine. After watching that blue and gold series he and the scouts seem like they run most of the draft and not Darcy. He seems to have a lot of desire to want to better the Buffalo ship.All scouts are gonna have hit's and misses but at this stage we can't afford any misses these next two years.

[Hoss]

 

I would not get rid of Devine. After watching that blue and gold series he and the scouts seem like they run most of the draft and not Darcy. He seems to have a lot of desire to want to better the Buffalo ship.All scouts are gonna have hit's and misses but at this stage we can't afford any misses these next two years.

 

I'm not sure what you're saying here. Darcy had a desire to improve the team, but just couldn't. Devine has been in charge of the draft and the draft hasn't improved the team for a while.

[Weave]

I am going to withhold my Devine argument until someone can write their argument as to why Devine is to blame for what issues.

 

See nfreeman's post.

[LGR4GM]

He was hired in 06 if I'm not crazy. So he was in charge for the 07 draft.

 

 

And you have to consider that he was the scout responsible for Quebec when we selected Zagrapan.

Okay. And I am not going to consider the Zagrapan pick to much. I will include it below in the drafted players since 05 in the first 3 rounds.

2005: 13 Marek Zagrapan, 48 Philipp Gogulla, 87 Marc-Andre Gragnani

2006: 24 Dennis Persson, 46 Jhonas Enroth, 57 Mike Weber,

2007: 31 T. J. Brennan (became Gustav Possler pick), 59 Drew Schiestel, 89 Corey Tropp

2008: 12 Tyler Myers, 26 Tyler Ennis, 44 Luke Adam, 81 Corey Fienhage

2009: 13 Zack Kassian, 66 Brayden McNabb, 104 Marcus Foligno (Sorry Foligno was 4th round had to fix the wiki entry)

2010: 23 Mark Pysyk, 68 Jerome Gauthier-Leduc, 75 Kevin Sundher, 83 Matt MacKenzie

2011: 16 Joel Armia, 77 Daniel Catenacci

2012: 12 Mikhail Grigorenko, 14 Zemgus Girgensons, 44 Jake McCabe, 73 Justin Kea

2013: 8 Rasmus Ristolainen, 16 Nikita Zadorov, 35 J.T. Compher, 38 Connor Hurley, 52 Justin Bailey, 69 Nicholas Baptiste

2014: 2first rounders, 3second rounders, 1third rounder

 

So in 2011 the scouting department was expanded under the Pegula ownership. So honestly we need to evaluate 2 sets of drafts. The pre Pegula drafts (A) and the post Pegula drafts (B).

 

A) Now it seems that Devine was a scout until 2006 when he became the head of amateur scouting. So even if he was involved with the Zagrapan pick, it is hard to estimate how much. That being said it is something to consider. Let us go then to his first Draft as the guy in charge. 2007. Brennan has played a little in the NHL and is currently in the AHL for the Marlies so that is a meh type of pick. Drew Sheistel has never set foot in the NHL so bust. Corey Tropp appears to be a serviceable blue chip 3rd liner. So I would say he gets a 1.5 out of 3 for 2007

 

2008 he gets Myers, Ennis, Luke Adam and Corey Fienhage. Now obviously two of those players are NHL capable guys that are on the roster today. Myers has been a lot better this year. Luke Adam is still a ? although he has played in the NHL a little bit and may be called up shortly to prove himself. Corey Fienhage plays for the Orlando Solar Bears in the ECHL and is a bust. so I would say 2.5 out of 4

 

2009 we have Kassian, McNabb, and Foligno who I am counting even as a 4th round selection. Kassian plays for Vancouver and may finally be figuring it out. McNabb has gotten stuck behind our metric ton of defenders although he may be called up shortly, he has played in the NHL and Foligno, DUH. so I would say at this moment 2.5 out of 3

 

2010 We have Pysyk and then the rest of them havent done anything yet. I will give 1 for Pysyk and .5 because one of those guys could pan out a couple are in Rochester. so 1.5 out of 4

Total: 8 out of 14 in the first round. This is a subjective number for my own benefit but it generally represents players that have either made to the NHL are on the fringe versus total busts.

 

B) 2011 we have Armia and Catenacci. Armia appears to be adjusting well to the AHL but he only has 2 games played. Out of fairness I will give him a .5 and then you have Catnasty who appears to be a work in progress. He only has 2pts in 14 games this season so I have to give a 0 even though I think he could make it. .5 out of 2

 

2012 We have Mikhail who I will give a 1 to because I think he will make it. he needs time. Zemgus who is going to be just fine he gets a 1. Jake McCabe I will give a .5 to because he has looked great but still has this year plus possibly 1 more in the NCAA. Kea is in the OHL and who knows how he will work out so 0. That is 2.5 out of 4

 

2013 This draft I can not give my points to past the first round. Rasmus will be fine so 1 and Zadorov I think will be fine so 1... 2/2

 

That means in total from 2011 to now we are at 5 out of 8. Some of these players are more difficult to judge because of their youth including the 4 other players taken in 2013.

 

 

so what is the point? It appears to me that Kevin Devine has drafted roughly 8 out of 14 nhl players from 2007 to 2010. These guys either play in the NHL are have played are fringe players perhaps. That is pretty good for the first 3 rounds. Since Pegula took over and expanded the scouting staff we are at 5/8 not counting the 4 players in the 2013 draft we can not rank yet. So that includes 3Players who will be on the roster this year plus Zadorov and Armia who I think will make the roster either next year or the one after. This indicates to me that Devine may have a better scouting department now and is doing quite well for us even if it appears that it hasnt payed off yet. A total of 22 players with 13 being either in the NHL or making an NHL roster shortly. This indicates a success rate of 0.59% for Devine in total and 0.63% since Pegula arrived.

 

My argument is that Kevin Devine has drafted well since becoming the guy in charge of Amateur Scouting in 2006-2007. It appears that his drafting has gotten better since then and that Pegula has aided that slightly. I do not think looking at who we have drafted that Kevin Devine has failed his gm and in fact think he has done quite well. Now I can only look at the players drafted and can not see to much of the internal workings. I don't really want to reference the Zadorov pick again but that is the best we got. It seems Devine was in the drivers seat for this past draft. That puts a lot of pressure on the guys to pan out but considering the early reports appear to be that we did well. Time will tell.

[SabresBillsFan]

 

My argument is that Kevin Devine has drafted well since becoming the guy in charge of Amateur Scouting in 2006-2007. It appears that his drafting has gotten better since then and that Pegula has aided that slightly. I do not think looking at who we have drafted that Kevin Devine has failed his gm and in fact think he has done quite well. Now I can only look at the players drafted and can not see to much of the internal workings. I don't really want to reference the Zadorov pick again but that is the best we got. It seems Devine was in the drivers seat for this past draft. That puts a lot of pressure on the guys to pan out but considering the early reports appear to be that we did well. Time will tell.

This is what I agree with. But I think a take charge GM will help get the right players in place. Unless your drafting in the top 10 the draft is a crap shoot. A lot of these players are so young and no-one really know's how some of these guys are going to develop.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I would expect the new GM, especially if it were Dudley, to shrink the scouting staff. There is no need to employ 40 scouts. There is nothing wrong with having people keeping an eye out for you, but if someone is serious about working hard, geting into the gritty details, and making a name for themselves as a scout, you can't do that when there are so many people.

 

What is going to happen is the good scouts that actually want to contribute, will go elsewhere. You will be stuck with the guys happy to collect a paycheck most likely. With 40 scouts, they will be marginalized. It seems most agree that the vast majority of your good players are going to be 1st and 2nd rounders. From the 4th round on, all the teams treat their picks as pretty much garbage. Sure, you will find players that are great every now and then, but in reality, there are probably 100 guys that can be considered potential quality going into a draft, and it is up to the GM and staff to get that list down to 50 or 60.....and rank your guys. Odds are if you have the #5, #20, #35, #45 picks in the 1st 2 rounds, and then #65 and #95 in the 3rd and 4th....you will end up with the players rated #4, #14, #25, #32, #44, and #58........other teams always value other things and have different opinions. The GM is going to know these 50 guys inside and out that will probably comprise their picks in the 1st 4 rounds. Where you might listen to a lesser scout is one of the last flyer picks...and they only have a 3% chance of any real impact.

 

With such a large scouting staff, you turn yourself into a management company with layers of organization. It becomes more of a process to get reports, set up meetings, exchange and digest information. In all honesty, if you get a guy like Dudley in here, he will probably say "That's Nice", about the current scouting setup, and favor 4 or 5 guys he knows and trusts, and dumps the rest of the process on Devine and/or someone else. Now...if you are happy with that as a scout, you probably aren't a good one. The GM himself can probably handle 70% of the process of the draft with some technology guys.

 

That's another key about getting a guy like Dudley. Not only does he have 40 years in the league and the respect and a history with almost all the other GMs in the league, he already has people in place all over the world that will give him a heads up if a guy is a diamond in the rough. A coach will drop a line or an independent will....favor city, and if you are liked, quid pro quo down the line.

 

As far as Devine goes, I like his passion and the way he attacks things. If he is willing to be an administrator to the staff, then he will still have an ear with a guy like Dudley. That's all Darcy was good at, was being an administrator and a spreadsheet pumper. A guy like Dudley will be more of a tornado than a constant breeze. Now if a younger guy like Botterill comes in, he may have to rely on Devine and the current stucture more.

 

Now, if you want to employ 40 scouts, it would make much more sense to have 1 guy follow each NHL team solely. Maybe 2 for division rivals. Watch and breakdown every game, go live to some, read the papers and listen to the chatter, scrutinize social media involving the team. Have reports ready for the coaching staff leading up to games, and for the GM and crew in general. Know your opponent inside and out. Sort of like we break down the Sabres here.....imagine working for another team and that was your job........

[Hoss]

Okay. And I am not going to consider the Zagrapan pick to much. I will include it below in the drafted players since 05 in the first 3 rounds.

 

 

So in 2011 the scouting department was expanded under the Pegula ownership. So honestly we need to evaluate 2 sets of drafts. The pre Pegula drafts (A) and the post Pegula drafts (B).

 

A) Now it seems that Devine was a scout until 2006 when he became the head of amateur scouting. So even if he was involved with the Zagrapan pick, it is hard to estimate how much. That being said it is something to consider. Let us go then to his first Draft as the guy in charge. 2007. Brennan has played a little in the NHL and is currently in the AHL for the Marlies so that is a meh type of pick. Drew Sheistel has never set foot in the NHL so bust. Corey Tropp appears to be a serviceable blue chip 3rd liner. So I would say he gets a 1.5 out of 3 for 2007

 

2008 he gets Myers, Ennis, Luke Adam and Corey Fienhage. Now obviously two of those players are NHL capable guys that are on the roster today. Myers has been a lot better this year. Luke Adam is still a ? although he has played in the NHL a little bit and may be called up shortly to prove himself. Corey Fienhage plays for the Orlando Solar Bears in the ECHL and is a bust. so I would say 2.5 out of 4

 

2009 we have Kassian, McNabb, and Foligno who I am counting even as a 4th round selection. Kassian plays for Vancouver and may finally be figuring it out. McNabb has gotten stuck behind our metric ton of defenders although he may be called up shortly, he has played in the NHL and Foligno, DUH. so I would say at this moment 2.5 out of 3

 

2010 We have Pysyk and then the rest of them havent done anything yet. I will give 1 for Pysyk and .5 because one of those guys could pan out a couple are in Rochester. so 1.5 out of 4

Total: 8 out of 14 in the first round. This is a subjective number for my own benefit but it generally represents players that have either made to the NHL are on the fringe versus total busts.

 

B) 2011 we have Armia and Catenacci. Armia appears to be adjusting well to the AHL but he only has 2 games played. Out of fairness I will give him a .5 and then you have Catnasty who appears to be a work in progress. He only has 2pts in 14 games this season so I have to give a 0 even though I think he could make it. .5 out of 2

 

2012 We have Mikhail who I will give a 1 to because I think he will make it. he needs time. Zemgus who is going to be just fine he gets a 1. Jake McCabe I will give a .5 to because he has looked great but still has this year plus possibly 1 more in the NCAA. Kea is in the OHL and who knows how he will work out so 0. That is 2.5 out of 4

 

2013 This draft I can not give my points to past the first round. Rasmus will be fine so 1 and Zadorov I think will be fine so 1... 2/2

 

That means in total from 2011 to now we are at 5 out of 8. Some of these players are more difficult to judge because of their youth including the 4 other players taken in 2013.

 

 

so what is the point? It appears to me that Kevin Devine has drafted roughly 8 out of 14 nhl players from 2007 to 2010. These guys either play in the NHL are have played are fringe players perhaps. That is pretty good for the first 3 rounds. Since Pegula took over and expanded the scouting staff we are at 5/8 not counting the 4 players in the 2013 draft we can not rank yet. So that includes 3Players who will be on the roster this year plus Zadorov and Armia who I think will make the roster either next year or the one after. This indicates to me that Devine may have a better scouting department now and is doing quite well for us even if it appears that it hasnt payed off yet. A total of 22 players with 13 being either in the NHL or making an NHL roster shortly. This indicates a success rate of 0.59% for Devine in total and 0.63% since Pegula arrived.

 

My argument is that Kevin Devine has drafted well since becoming the guy in charge of Amateur Scouting in 2006-2007. It appears that his drafting has gotten better since then and that Pegula has aided that slightly. I do not think looking at who we have drafted that Kevin Devine has failed his gm and in fact think he has done quite well. Now I can only look at the players drafted and can not see to much of the internal workings. I don't really want to reference the Zadorov pick again but that is the best we got. It seems Devine was in the drivers seat for this past draft. That puts a lot of pressure on the guys to pan out but considering the early reports appear to be that we did well. Time will tell.

 

He was directly involved with the Zagrapan pick. He was the scout for the area. He would've been telling the decision makers that he's a legitimate player and good pick.

 

You can't judge any of the last 2-3 drafts in any way. We have no idea what Zadorov will be. So you have to judge him on what you KNOW, and what we know isn't positive.

[Robviously]

He was directly involved with the Zagrapan pick. He was the scout for the area. He would've been telling the decision makers that he's a legitimate player and good pick.

 

You can't judge any of the last 2-3 drafts in any way. We have no idea what Zadorov will be. So you have to judge him on what you KNOW, and what we know isn't positive.

We know 2008 and 2009, and those are good drafts.

[Two or less]

Where are his homeruns?

 

It's his job to draft good players. He doesn't develop them nor coach them.

 

That said, Drew Schiestel was a AHL all-star. Luke Adam and Tyler Ennis AHL rookie of the year. Tyler Myers NHL rookie of the year. Kassian and Foligno WJC in major roles. McCabe a USA captain.

 

He's picked good players, If they were used correctly or developed right by the organization is a different story. Can't put that on Devine though.

[tom webster]

He was directly involved with the Zagrapan pick. He was the scout for the area. He would've been telling the decision makers that he's a legitimate player and good pick.

 

You can't judge any of the last 2-3 drafts in any way. We have no idea what Zadorov will be. So you have to judge him on what you KNOW, and what we know isn't positive.

 

Show me a good General Manager that hasn't guessed wrong on a player and I will show you an out of work GM.(see Darcy Reiger) Not being afraid to make a mistake and go all in is what separates the winners from the losers, whether its business, sports and sometimes life. Darcy Regier was the epitome of paralysis by analysis and the guru of winning the trade and largely because of it, he came up short.

[Hoss]

I think Devine likely stays through this years draft, as he and the scouts have already been working towards it. Then the new GM decides after the draft, similar to what they're doing with Nolan.

 

So have whoever the potential new GM would bring in.

 

Show me a good General Manager that hasn't guessed wrong on a player and I will show you an out of work GM.(see Darcy Reiger) Not being afraid to make a mistake and go all in is what separates the winners from the losers, whether its business, sports and sometimes life. Darcy Regier was the epitome of paralysis by analysis and the guru of winning the trade and largely because of it, he came up short.

 

Sure. People make mistakes. But for you to use the "show me a good GM that hasn't guessed wrong" argument, you have to make up for the mistakes with positive results. I get that everybody has their mistakes, but you still have to make a positive impact somewhere. Devine hasn't done that yet.

 

The only argument being made for Devine sticking around right now is: he's made mistakes but everybody does. That's like saying "but what has he done wrong?"

 

It's his job to draft good players. He doesn't develop them nor coach them.

 

That said, Drew Schiestel was a AHL all-star. Luke Adam and Tyler Ennis AHL rookie of the year. Tyler Myers NHL rookie of the year. Kassian and Foligno WJC in major roles. McCabe a USA captain.

 

He's picked good players, If they were used correctly or developed right by the organization is a different story. Can't put that on Devine though.

 

I don't care about "USA Captain." I don't care about "AHL all-star." That's irrelevant. That kind of stuff is just supplements for a good NHL career. He's not drafting for the WJC. He's not drafting for team USA. He's drafting for the Buffalo Sabres.

 

 

 

 

 

 

To me, Devine isn't bad. He's solid, but I wouldn't say he's done a whole lot of good. And that's what you have to do. He hasn't done enough for the team to say to GM candidates "we'd like to keep Devine around." If the new GM wants to keep Devine around, then I'm okay with it. Even though I'd prefer to rid ourselves of all things related to Darcy in the front office.

[tom webster]

So have whoever the potential new GM would bring in.

 

 

 

Sure. People make mistakes. But for you to use the "show me a good GM that hasn't guessed wrong" argument, you have to make up for the mistakes with positive results. I get that everybody has their mistakes, but you still have to make a positive impact somewhere. Devine hasn't done that yet.

 

The only argument being made for Devine sticking around right now is: he's made mistakes but everybody does. That's like saying "but what has he done wrong?"

 

You don't know that he hasn't had a positive impact, as you said yourself, its too early to judge the last two or three drafts and no one except the inner circle even knows what impact he had on that. Did he implore Darcy to move up, to take player A over player B? As someone said before, I trust that Pat can get those answers, make a judgement on the selections Devine had a hand in and decide if he has a place in the organization.

By the way, are we done with organ-EYE-zation?

[SabresBillsFan]

Most GM's and scouts can hit homeruns in the top 5 the real work begins after that in each draft. With Buffalo having so many picks in the next 2 drafts in the first 2 rounds they can't afford to have misses if they want to build a Stanley Cup Contender. I think they have done okay with there picks the last couple of years. You have to look at where they picked as well.

[Hoss]

You don't know that he hasn't had a positive impact, as you said yourself, its too early to judge the last two or three drafts and no one except the inner circle even knows what impact he had on that. Did he implore Darcy to move up, to take player A over player B? As someone said before, I trust that Pat can get those answers, make a judgement on the selections Devine had a hand in and decide if he has a place in the organization.

By the way, are we done with organ-EYE-zation?

 

You have to judge based on what we know. He's had a few hits and a few misses. Nothing special, but a few really bad ones.

[SabresBillsFan]

You have to judge based on what we know. He's had a few hits and a few misses. Nothing special, but a few really bad ones.

The way I look at it is this team can't afford any misses in Round 1 or Round 2 of these next 2 drafts. But unfortunately you are talking about teenagers and not kids in there 20's. Like I said the top 5 in most drafts are usually pretty good players and even the analysts can pick them it's after that is what separates the good teams from the bad.

[Hoss]

The way I look at it is this team can't afford any misses in Round 1 or Round 2 of these next 2 drafts. But unfortunately you are talking about teenagers and not kids in there 20's. Like I said the top 5 in most drafts are usually pretty good players and even the analysts can pick them it's after that is what separates the good teams from the bad.

 

Yeap, it's pretty hard to miss when you're at the top.

[Two or less]

I don't care about "USA Captain." I don't care about "AHL all-star." That's irrelevant. That kind of stuff is just supplements for a good NHL career. He's not drafting for the WJC. He's not drafting for team USA. He's drafting for the Buffalo Sabres.

 

Yea, no kidding. No player drafted is a born-ready NHLer. Not even Crosby. And Stamkos even had a rough start to his career. He needs to feed the developmental staff and coaching staff with good players and then they go ahead and develop them more. The guys he has drafted, in their age group were in a higher level then many others. It takes a special kind to become a captain of the USA WJC team. That doesn't mean he's NHL ready. Lots of coaching and learning still needs to be done.

 

You're confusing what Devine's role was and is.

[Hoss]

Yea, no kidding. No player drafted is a born-ready NHLer. Not even Crosby. And Stamkos even had a rough start to his career. He needs to feed the developmental staff and coaching staff with good players and then they go ahead and develop them more. The guys he has drafted, in their age group were in a higher level then many others. It takes a special kind to become a captain of the USA WJC team. That doesn't mean he's NHL ready. Lots of coaching and learning still needs to be done.

 

You're confusing what Devine's role was and is.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm really excited about McCabe and I like seeing those things on draftees, but you can't use them as "successes" for Devine.

[Brawndo]

Interesting Botterill read.

 

http://thehockeywriters.com/jason-botterill-pittsburgh-penguins-blueprint/

 

If knowing the league is a priority, then he certainly seems to fit the bill

 

Interesting read

[tom webster]

You have to judge based on what we know. He's had a few hits and a few misses. Nothing special, but a few really bad ones.

 

 

Actually, only Patty has to decide on what he knows. We can form our opinions but you have no idea what we have in the players of the last three drafts. You clearly do not have a high opinion of some of the kids on the roster but I don't share that opinion. It will be awhile before anyone will know who is right.

[Hoss]

Actually, only Patty has to decide on what he knows. We can form our opinions but you have no idea what we have in the players of the last three drafts. You clearly do not have a high opinion of some of the kids on the roster but I don't share that opinion. It will be awhile before anyone will know who is right.

 

No, I do. I am excited about our young kids. But we have NO idea what they are going to be. They could all be complete busts. We just don't know. And neither does anybody in the organization. Those are things you never know until they actually become full-time NHL players (or don't) for multiple years. You can only judge on the knowns when considering a change.

 

The argument doesn't need to shift to "only LaFontaine knows." We're fans, and this is a discussion board. If that's the way it works we should shut down the forum.