Official 2014 NHL Draft thread

[Hoss]

Again, looking at our depth in net with Enroth, Neivrith, Leiwen, Hackett, Ullmark, Makarov, Petersen, I have to say that using a late 1st or early 2nd round pick on a GT prospect is unwise. I argue this point a ton but you can get very good GT in the 3rd rnd and beyond. No reason to waste that pick IMPO.

 

It wouldn't be a waste.

 

Lieuwen and Hackett have had struggles recently and would be a surprise if they turned into true factors in the crease. Ullmark, Makarov and Petersen are all extreme unknowns.

We have so many picks that it wouldn't be a bad move. Not EVERY pick is going to be a forward.

[shrader]

More from Friedman:

 

The stuff you quoted will be all the more reason for free agents to avoid the Islanders. There's already the questions revolving around the move to Brooklyn. Now we have a potentially unstable ownership situation where you don't know who you're playing for from one day to the next. Mix in their long-term track record of failure and the whole thing continues to look like a trainwreck. There won't be any quick free agent based turn around for them this offseason. They'll continue to be the same old Islanders next season.

[Derrico]

The stuff you quoted will be all the more reason for free agents to avoid the Islanders. There's already the questions revolving around the move to Brooklyn. Now we have a potentially unstable ownership situation where you don't know who you're playing for from one day to the next. Mix in their long-term track record of failure and the whole thing continues to look like a trainwreck. There won't be any quick free agent based turn around for them this offseason. They'll continue to be the same old Islanders next season.

 

Good points.

[Robviously]

If I were the Sabres...

1st overall: Sam Reinhart

4th/5th overall: Leon Draisaitl or Michael Dal Colle

29th overall: Adrian Kempe

31st overall: Brendan Lemieux

Most likely scenario is that we're drafting 2nd overall and Reinhart is gone.

 

Not an easy decision then.

[Trettioåtta]

Most likely scenario is that we're drafting 2nd overall and Reinhart is gone.

 

Not an easy decision then.

 

Bennet

[Hoss]

 

Most likely scenario is that we're drafting 2nd overall and Reinhart is gone.

 

Not an easy decision then.

 

How do I do an eye roll on mobile?

[LGR4GM]

Most likely scenario is that we're drafting 2nd overall and Reinhart is gone.

 

Not an easy decision then.

Actually the most likely Scenario is that we draft 1st overall or if we draft 2nd that Edmonton is 1st overall taking Ekblad. You are also assuming that the 1st overall team takes Reinhart, which they may not. Bennett is a very likely candidate even for us. Draisaitl and Ekblad too. If Reinhart is gone I take either Bennett or Draisaitl. I will have 2 full months to create that contingency plan if I lose the lottery.

 

Lots to consider and I agree not an easy decision.

 

Once the draft is set I will do a first round mock.

[dudacek]

 

Again, looking at our depth in net with Enroth, Neivrith, Leiwen, Hackett, Ullmark, Makarov, Petersen, I have to say that using a late 1st or early 2nd round pick on a GT prospect is unwise. I argue this point a ton but you can get very good GT in the 3rd rnd and beyond. No reason to waste that pick IMPO.

 

Predictable from me, but I will say it anyway: until we have another Miller-level goalie starting for us, I will roll the dice on the best goalie in the draft at 28 or 31 every time over the ninth-best defenceman or the 19th-best forward.

Edited April 8, 2014 by dudacek

[Rasmus_]

If I were the Sabres...

1st overall: Sam Reinhart

4th/5th overall: Leon Draisaitl or Michael Dal Colle

29th overall: Adrian Kempe

31st overall: Brendan Lemieux

 

Love the first three. I know nothing about Brendan Lemieux, best place to look more into him?

[LGR4GM]

Love the first three. I know nothing about Brendan Lemieux, best place to look more into him?

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=177647

 

Here is a quick write up from eliteprospects

[Rasmus_]

http://www.elitepros...p?player=177647

 

Here is a quick write up from eliteprospects

 

I'm sold, his daddy was Claude Lemieux. Amazing!

[Iron Crotch]

WADR, I love how everyone has opinions on guys they've barely (or have never) seen play. ;)

[Rasmus_]

WADR, I love how everyone has opinions on guys they've barely (or have never) seen play. ;)

 

That's a really good point. I just like the blood lines. I am basing it on that. However, you made a very valid point on my newbish kind of response. All is fair.

[Hoss]

 

 

That's a really good point. I just like the blood lines. I am basing it on that. However, you made a very valid point on my newbish kind of response. All is fair.

 

Not a good point, at all. Whoever said that believes that they know how much other hockey posters watch. I don't know how much many others watch other than what they've said, but I've watched a fair amount of the top guys.

[Robviously]

Bennet

Do you take the smaller, more intense guy (who got hurt in his last OHL game) or do you take Draisaitl who is bigger and a more natural center? I don't think it's obvious which one will be better in the NHL.

 

 

Actually the most likely Scenario is that we draft 1st overall or if we draft 2nd that Edmonton is 1st overall taking Ekblad. You are also assuming that the 1st overall team takes Reinhart, which they may not. Bennett is a very likely candidate even for us. Draisaitl and Ekblad too. If Reinhart is gone I take either Bennett or Draisaitl. I will have 2 full months to create that contingency plan if I lose the lottery.

 

Lots to consider and I agree not an easy decision.

 

Once the draft is set I will do a first round mock.

I Know there's a 75% chance we draft second (that is set in stone) and I assume the team that drafts first will be smart enough to know forwards are more valuable than defensemen (reasonable since you never want to assume your competition is dumb).

 

I think us drafting 2nd with Reinhart gone is likely, and I think Bennett versus Draisaitl is a tough call.

[Trettioåtta]

Do you take the smaller, more intense guy (who got hurt in his last OHL game) or do you take Draisaitl who is bigger and a more natural center? I don't think it's obvious which one will be better in the NHL.

 

 

I Know there's a 75% chance we draft second (that is set in stone) and I assume the team that drafts first will be smart enough to know forwards are more valuable than defensemen (reasonable since you never want to assume your competition is dumb).

 

I think us drafting 2nd with Reinhart gone is likely, and I think Bennett versus Draisaitl is a tough call.

 

Bennett for me is Toews. A smaller NHL player (he isn't small though) who plays hard and plays 200 feet. He is someone whose work attitude can carry the team, hockey IQ can stabilize a game and whose speed can break it open. However. I have not seen much of his real play (this is from reading scout reports and youtube)

 

He is also really young (June birthday compared to October birthday of LD and November birthday of SR) - I think this makes a big difference

[Taro T]

Actually the most likely Scenario is that we draft 1st overall or if we draft 2nd that Edmonton is 1st overall taking Ekblad. You are also assuming that the 1st overall team takes Reinhart, which they may not. Bennett is a very likely candidate even for us. Draisaitl and Ekblad too. If Reinhart is gone I take either Bennett or Draisaitl. I will have 2 full months to create that contingency plan if I lose the lottery.

 

Lots to consider and I agree not an easy decision.

 

Once the draft is set I will do a first round mock.

How is a 25% chance (disounting the possibility that the Isles win the lottery and give Buffalo the pick and discounting NJ's effects on the lottery) the most likely scenario; and a 25% chance of any of the remaining possibilities occurring the next 'most likely Scenario?'

 

The MOST likely scenario is a team finishing in the bottom 14 not nicknamed Sabres, Eulers, or Devils getting #1 and Buffalo thus getting #2.

Edited April 8, 2014 by Taro T

[LGR4GM]

How is a 25% chance (disounting the possibility that the Isles win the lottery and give Buffalo the pick and discounting NJ's effects on the lottery) the most likely scenario; and a 25% chance of any of the remaining possibilities occurring the next 'most likely Scenario?'

 

The MOST likely scenario is a team finishing in the bottom 14 not nicknamed Sabres, Eulers, or Devils getting #1 and Buffalo thus getting #2.

The two most likely probabilities are we draft first or EDM drafts first (43.8%). If you then add in every single other option you are correct (56.2%) but I was looking at them as singular things. If the devils miss the playoffs that also changes the percentages a bit. We have a the best chance of drafting the best forward.

 

Bennett for me is Toews. A smaller NHL player (he isn't small though) who plays hard and plays 200 feet. He is someone whose work attitude can carry the team, hockey IQ can stabilize a game and whose speed can break it open. However. I have not seen much of his real play (this is from reading scout reports and youtube)

 

He is also really young (June birthday compared to October birthday of LD and November birthday of SR) - I think this makes a big difference

I think Bennett right now looks to have a higher ceiling than Draisaitl but again that is a decision I am willing to leave to TM

Edited April 8, 2014 by LGR4GM

[Taro T]

The two most likely probabilities are we draft first or EDM drafts first. If you then add in every single other option you are correct but I was looking at them as singular things. If the devils miss the playoffs that also changes the percentages a bit. We have a the best chance of drafting the best forward.

 

 

I think Bennett right now looks to have a higher ceiling than Draisaitl but again that is a decision I am willing to leave to TM

No they don't. Not unless there are a bunch of teams in the bottom 14 that would likely pick a D w/ the 1st pick like the Eulers probably would w/ that pick.

 

The MOST likely scenario is the Sabres have their choice of either the 2nd forward taken or Ekblad.

[LGR4GM]

No they don't. Not unless there are a bunch of teams in the bottom 14 that would likely pick a D w/ the 1st pick like the Eulers probably would w/ that pick.

 

The MOST likely scenario is the Sabres have their choice of either the 2nd forward taken or Ekblad.

Again I am not looking at it the way you are. I am looking at it as the Sabres have a the best singular chance of getting to draft the forward they want.

[Iron Crotch]

Not a good point, at all. Whoever said that believes that they know how much other hockey posters watch. I don't know how much many others watch other than what they've said, but I've watched a fair amount of the top guys.

 

Spend a lot of time in Kootenay and Prince Albert, do ya?

 

:angel:

[LGR4GM]

Buffalo and the Oilers combined have a 43.8% chance of winning. I am thinking that compared to the 14.2% for team 3 and so forth we have the best chance of getting our forward.

[Norcal]

Of all the top picks, which one is better in the circle? Buffalo desperately needs someone who can consistently win more face offs than they lose, actually a couple of someone's.

[carpandean]

It's a question of how you define your events. Two choices are: (1) Sabres win lottery or they do not, or (2) Sabres win lottery, Oilers win lottery, Panthers win lotttery, ..., 14th-worst team win lottery. In (1) the Sabres not winning is the most likely event, while in (2) the Sabres winning the lottery is.

[LGR4GM]

Of all the top picks, which one is better in the circle? Buffalo desperately needs someone who can consistently win more face offs than they lose, actually a couple of someone's.

Mikhail Grigorenko

 

In all seriousness I would not know and am far to lazy to look up faceoff stats.

 

It's a question of how you define your events. Two choices are: (1) Sabres win lottery or they do not, or (2) Sabres win lottery, Oilers win lottery, Panthers win lotttery, ..., 14th-worst team win lottery. In (1) the Sabres not winning is the most likely event, while in (2) the Sabres winning the lottery is.

Yes and I am using method 2 but allowing for EDM to win in that scenario because I believe they will take Ekblad (because they should)