Official 2014 NHL Draft thread

[Derrico]

If they were to adopt the five-year plan for the lottery odds then we would have to finish 41 points below Edmonton between now and the end of next season to get the best odds in the lottery. I don't think five years is a fair shot. Maybe three years.

 

But even that ignores the fact that sometimes you lose the face of your franchise. Sometimes they retire and that changes everything, so considering anything more than the single year is unfair.

 

Ya I would be more inclined to go with 3 as well. Alot can change over 5 years but I think 3 years would be fair.

[Taro T]

If they were to adopt the five-year plan for the lottery odds then we would have to finish 41 points below Edmonton between now and the end of next season to get the best odds in the lottery. I don't think five years is a fair shot. Maybe three years.

 

But even that ignores the fact that sometimes you lose the face of your franchise. Sometimes they retire and that changes everything, so considering anything more than the single year is unfair.

Noooo, they are looking at how many points the 30th place ends up out of a playoff spot over a 5 year period, not the particular team in 30th place. :doh:

 

Likewise for 29th, 28th, back to 17th. In the example where 30th gets 18.x% chance of winning the lottery, 17th place would have likely a 5/697th chance of winning because that team typically is 1 point out of the playoffs. If Edmonton finishes 20th next year, they'll get ~5% chance of winning, not a ~33% chance of winning because they've probably missed the playoffs by 1/3 the total points that non-playoff teams have missed by over the past 5 years. But 20th has probably only missed by about 5% of the total points that teams were out of the money.

[inkman]

Why are they changing it again? Because a lot of GMs want shots at the top guys? What a joke. Let's just change the lottery system every year. The year after next lets give the 1st overall pick to the team that wins the cup.

The NHL will continue to prove they are the model of how not to run your league.

[SabresBillsFan]

The NHL will continue to prove they are the model of how not to run your league.

The NHL will continue to prove they are the model of how not to run your league.

 

Some GM's need all the help they can get because they have no clue on how to build a team, draft, salary or what have you.

[pi2000]

They should keep it simple and use 5 point buckets. ie, teams finishing with 60-65 points in one bucket, teams with 65-70 points in another bucket... and only allow re-ordering of teams within the same bucket. ie, Sabres finish all by themselves in the lowest bucket... they get the first pick. FLA, EDM, and NYI finish in the next bucket.... they get assigned picks 2-4 at random. Basically, just group teams by how bad they are.

 

I don't understand why the league is so anti-tank. I mean, it's part of sport... if you're willing to sacrifice now to be rewarded years down the road, then so be it. That's a large part of fan interest in the game, taking solace that your last place team at least gets to add one potential stud for the next season... and there's not even an guarantee that player will pan out. But to finish last by such a wide margin, and not even get a top 3 pick is just dumb.

[Weave]

I don't understand why the league is so anti-tank. I mean, it's part of sport... if you're willing to sacrifice now to be rewarded years down the road, then so be it. That's a large part of fan interest in the game, taking solace that your last place team at least gets to add one potential stud for the next season... and there's not even an guarantee that player will pan out. But to finish last by such a wide margin, and not even get a top 3 pick is just dumb.

 

1. Fans should not have to tolerate a team putting out a product as low quality as the Sabres have this season. And it isn't just Sabres fans. If I were, say a Blackhawks fan, I would not want to have paid the ticket price to see an AHL team on the ice when the schedule says Buffalo. It isn't fair to the spectators in any of the arenas.

 

2. I doubt very highly that the corporate sponsors and national TV broadcasters are pleased at all that they have their products associated with such a poor product.

 

3. The league wants to grow their revenues. They need the sport to become more popular to do it. Teams tanking and purposely icing a crappy team does nothing positive for the potential growth of the league.

[pi2000]

1. Fans should not have to tolerate a team putting out a product as low quality as the Sabres have this season. And it isn't just Sabres fans. If I were, say a Blackhawks fan, I would not want to have paid the ticket price to see an AHL team on the ice when the schedule says Buffalo. It isn't fair to the spectators in any of the arenas.

 

Nobody is forcing the fans to buy tickets, watch the games on TV, or buy merchandise. If you don't like the product, then don't spend your hard earned dollars on the Sabres.

 

2. I doubt very highly that the corporate sponsors and national TV broadcasters are pleased at all that they have their products associated with such a poor product.

 

Again, it's a free marketplace. If they believe the Sabres are a poor product, then don't sponsor them.

 

 

3. The league wants to grow their revenues. They need the sport to become more popular to do it. Teams tanking and purposely icing a crappy team does nothing positive for the potential growth of the league.

 

If the Sabres draft McDavid next season and win a Cup at some point in the next 10, it will make one or two years of tanking worthwhile. It's smart business. And IMO the league would love to see a hockey crazy region like western new york raise the Stanley Cup, which is not likely to happen if they continue to field a mediocore team with no elite talent.

Edited March 17, 2014 by pi2000

[WildCard]

Nobody is forcing the fans to buy tickets, watch the games on TV, or buy merchandise. If you don't like the product, then don't spend your hard earned dollars on the Sabres.

Again, it's a free marketplace. If they believe the Sabres are a poor product, then don't sponsor them.

If the Sabres draft McDavid next season and win a Cup at some point in the next 10, it will make one or two years of tanking worthwhile. It's smart business. And IMO the league would love to see a hockey crazy region like western new york raise the Stanley Cup, which is not likely to happen if they continue to field a mediocore team with no elite talent.

I think you're failing to understand the difference for between what's in the league's best interest and what's in a fan's best interest. Sure the fan's don't have to buy tickets or merchandise and of course they'd want a shot a McDavid, but them not buying the league's products, not watching the games---->not getting sponsors, hurts the league.

[Weave]

Nobody is forcing the fans to buy tickets, watch the games on TV, or buy merchandise. If you don't like the product, then don't spend your hard earned dollars on the Sabres.

 

 

 

Again, it's a free marketplace. If they believe the Sabres are a poor product, then don't sponsor them.

 

 

 

 

If the Sabres draft McDavid next season and win a Cup at some point in the next 10, it will make one or two years of tanking worthwhile. It's smart business. And IMO the league would love to see a hockey crazy region like western new york raise the Stanley Cup, which is not likely to happen if they continue to field a mediocore team with no elite talent.

 

You missed my point.

 

1. It isn't just Sabres fans that are saddled with a poor game experience when the Sabres ice a team designed to lose.

2. It is more than just Sabres sponsors. League sponsors don't want their product associated with a lousy entertainment experience.

 

 

I think you're failing to understand the difference for between what's in the league's best interest and what's in a fan's best interest. Sure the fan's don't have to buy tickets or merchandise and of course they'd want a shot a McDavid, but them not buying the league's products, not watching the games---->not getting sponsors, hurts the league.

 

You got my point.

 

Sabres fans may very well find tanking in their best interests, but the league can't see any team tanking as good for the league. The NHL certainly has an interest in preventing teams from tanking, and as a fan of the league I will support the NHL changing the rules to make tanking less likely.

[BuffaloSoldier2010]

I think you're failing to understand the difference for between what's in the league's best interest and what's in a fan's best interest. Sure the fan's don't have to buy tickets or merchandise and of course they'd want a shot a McDavid, but them not buying the league's products, not watching the games---->not getting sponsors, hurts the league.

Except that Buffalo has recently had some of the best ratings per capita in the league in terms of viewers. While i understand that tanking in general could negatively affect the leagues bottom-line, i think it'd be wise on their part to capitalize what they have here. A very competitive team in Buffalo could be VERY GOOD for the league in a few years. A small market team that can afford to spend spend spend and compete with the big markets is great for the NHL.

[SabresBillsFan]

Except that Buffalo has recently had some of the best ratings per capita in the league in terms of viewers. While i understand that tanking in general could negatively affect the leagues bottom-line, i think it'd be wise on their part to capitalize what they have here. A very competitive team in Buffalo could be VERY GOOD for the league in a few years. A small market team that can afford to spend spend spend and compete with the big markets is great for the NHL.

 

Very True about Buffalo.

[Two or less]

I think you're failing to understand the difference for between what's in the league's best interest and what's in a fan's best interest. Sure the fan's don't have to buy tickets or merchandise and of course they'd want a shot a McDavid, but them not buying the league's products, not watching the games---->not getting sponsors, hurts the league.

 

I'd be lying if i said i wasn't bummed out about this news because I was all in for a full out tank. From a fans point-of-view.

 

However, we all gotta realize how BS this was by the Sabres. League has to step in and stop it before it gets out of hand. Sabres to start the season put on the ice 3 teenagers against the Dallas Stars during a PP. The entire arena booo'ed when they couldn't even get the puck out of their own end. It wasn't a "we're good enough" it was, we will field the worst possible team.

 

There are several top elite prospects in the 2015 draft. I highly doubt, that by finishing dead last, we would finish outside the top-3. So, keep the tank on. And let's take a chance. This changes nothing in my mind in terms of our tank.

[WildCard]

Except that Buffalo has recently had some of the best ratings per capita in the league in terms of viewers. While i understand that tanking in general could negatively affect the leagues bottom-line, i think it'd be wise on their part to capitalize what they have here. A very competitive team in Buffalo could be VERY GOOD for the league in a few years. A small market team that can afford to spend spend spend and compete with the big markets is great for the NHL.

This may be true for Buffalo, but it's not true for all markets. If we're going to look at big markets and how they can sustain a tanking, take a look a Pittsburgh and how close they were to moving. As for small market teams, they clearly can't do this. Atlanta couldn't do it, and Pheonix has trouble to this day while icing a very good and consistent playoff team. Losing a franchise in a city isn't fun for the league, and I doubt it's something they like to gamble with.

 

So for your proposal, my question is this: How is the league supposed to implement a consistent drafting method if tanking is only permitting amongst the very, very small amount of Buffalonian markets (i.e. small markets that can sustain economically while still losing)? Do they switch methods based on who they predict is going to be bad, or do they simply write in a clause dictating individual drafting policies for each franchise?

Edited March 17, 2014 by WildCard

[TrueBlueGED]

1. Fans should not have to tolerate a team putting out a product as low quality as the Sabres have this season. And it isn't just Sabres fans. If I were, say a Blackhawks fan, I would not want to have paid the ticket price to see an AHL team on the ice when the schedule says Buffalo. It isn't fair to the spectators in any of the arenas.

 

2. I doubt very highly that the corporate sponsors and national TV broadcasters are pleased at all that they have their products associated with such a poor product.

 

3. The league wants to grow their revenues. They need the sport to become more popular to do it. Teams tanking and purposely icing a crappy team does nothing positive for the potential growth of the league.

 

All valid. I suppose from my perspective, I don't think a team deliberately tanking is any worse than a team that naturally tanks through incompetence. I'd even argue having an owner like Wang who not only hires incompetent personnel, but is unwilling to invest the necessary resources to compete (while being in a major media market, no less), is far more harmful to the league and its relations with fans/advertisers than a team deliberately tanking for two years with the intent of improving after that. Is it just a case of going after what they can impact? ie. The NHL can legislate the incentives in the draft, but it's much harder to legislate out incompetence.

 

Aside from that, I don't think tanking is a major problem because I think the vast majority of teams that stink don't do it on purpose, they're just bad in a variety of ways that combine to very poor results. Plus, as Tank pointed out, the NBA has every lottery spot up for grabs (to non-playoff teams) and you still have a handful of teams every single year that tanks, so the altered incentive structure isn't really changing behavior.

 

I also worry about the consequences of devising a system where truly bad teams not only can't attract free agents, but can't acquire prime assets in the draft...how does that team get better outside of pure luck? Teams hitting rock bottom with little hope of escaping certainly isn't good for the league either. It's a very tough balance to try to strike.

[Eleven]

1. Fans should not have to tolerate a team putting out a product as low quality as the Sabres have this season. And it isn't just Sabres fans. If I were, say a Blackhawks fan, I would not want to have paid the ticket price to see an AHL team on the ice when the schedule says Buffalo. It isn't fair to the spectators in any of the arenas.

 

2. I doubt very highly that the corporate sponsors and national TV broadcasters are pleased at all that they have their products associated with such a poor product.

 

3. The league wants to grow their revenues. They need the sport to become more popular to do it. Teams tanking and purposely icing a crappy team does nothing positive for the potential growth of the league.

 

No team deliberately tanks (the players and coaches want jobs), but your first two points are right on. Those who have argued against neglect the fact that tickets and sponsorships are bought well in advance.

[SwampD]

Nobody is forcing the fans to buy tickets, watch the games on TV, or buy merchandise. If you don't like the product, then don't spend your hard earned dollars on the Sabres.

 

 

 

Again, it's a free marketplace. If they believe the Sabres are a poor product, then don't sponsor them.

 

 

 

 

If the Sabres draft McDavid next season and win a Cup at some point in the next 10, it will make one or two years of tanking worthwhile. It's smart business. And IMO the league would love to see a hockey crazy region like western new york raise the Stanley Cup, which is not likely to happen if they continue to field a mediocore team with no elite talent.

 

It is not a free market. The Sabres have a monopoly on NHL hockey in Buffalo. We can't just jump ship and root for the other NHL team here.

 

And the tank started before they traded Pominville so it'll be well over 4 years by the end of it (if we're lucky).

[LastPommerFan]

The Blackhawks did it to us.

[Claude_Verret]

I found trying to win and finishing 7-12th most years far more frustrating as a fan than one full season (so far) where we've been told with a wink and a nod that the team will suck. I don't think the league really cares about the Sabres tanking this year, this proposed upheaval in the lottery process is 100% about McDavid and other GMs wanting their shot.

[Weave]

No team deliberately tanks (the players and coaches want jobs), but your first two points are right on. Those who have argued against neglect the fact that tickets and sponsorships are bought well in advance.

 

*sigh*

 

Management designed the team to lose regardless of the intentions of the coach and players. I would think this to be self evident.

 

I found trying to win and finishing 7-12th most years far more frustrating as a fan than one full season (so far) where we've been told with a wink and a nod that the team will suck. I don't think the league really cares about the Sabres tanking this year, this proposed upheaval in the lottery process is 100% about McDavid and other GMs wanting their shot.

 

I disagree. I think the league does care. Well, specifically, I think the league cares that the Sabres were so.... blatant about their tank plans. When has the league adopted changes to how players are drafted at the top of the order? Not when elite talent has arrived. They did it in response to a team blatantly tanking.

 

well, except that Crosby thing. But that was after a lockout.

[SabresBillsFan]

I found trying to win and finishing 7-12th most years far more frustrating as a fan than one full season (so far) where we've been told with a wink and a nod that the team will suck. I don't think the league really cares about the Sabres tanking this year, this proposed upheaval in the lottery process is 100% about McDavid and other GMs wanting their shot.

 

I can agree with this. To me there's nothing worse than us finishing 8-13 almost every year and missing out on elite players. Buffalo hasn't had a top pick since Vanek and Turgeon and both when traded brought back a lot. How many seasons did they go on meaningless runs only to eliminate whatever good draft position they could have had. To me that's frustrating because you know they could make the playoffs and that's it. It's not like they were going to go to the Cup with some of these squads. I thought their best chance at the Cup is when we lost to Carolina. I thought the injuries on defense killed us. If we were healthy they beat the Canes.

[LastPommerFan]

 

 

*sigh*

 

Management designed the team to lose regardless of the intentions of the coach and players. I would think this to be self evident.

 

 

 

I disagree. I think the league does care. Well, specifically, I think the league cares that the Sabres were so.... blatant about their tank plans. When has the league adopted changes to how players are drafted at the top of the order? Not when elite talent has arrived. They did it in response to a team blatantly tanking.

 

well, except that Crosby thing. But that was after a lockout.

 

The first time they added the lottery was after a lockout as well.

[deluca67]

I have never believed the Sabres plan was to "tank" until they realized it was inevitable,

 

The Draft Lottery was designed in part to counter the perception that teams can lose on purpose and be rewarded. If that is the NHL's intent they should address it fully.

 

A) have a true Draft Lottery where all 14 non playoff teams have their draft position drawn at random. .

 

B) have a weighted lottery where a teams chances are based on victories. 1 ball per win.

 

C) have a tourney to determine the draft order. This is my preference where the 14 non-playoff teams play in a single game elimination tournament to determine the draft order.

[carpandean]

The Draft Lottery was designed in part to counter the perception that teams can lose on purpose and be rewarded. If that is the NHL's intent they should address it fully.

 

The intent of the original reverse ordering was to enocurage parity and to give the fans of a team with a bad year something to look forward to at the end. However, as with any system to provides benefit to being at the bottom, that also encourages some to abuse the system by not putting forth an honest effort. So, the lottery was added and then strengthened (no more "can't move up more than four spots" rule) in order to counter-act this side effect by reducing the possibility that a team could tank for a top player. The league does not want to get rid of the primary effect (shootouts are still here, afterall), but they want to ward off some of the side effect. Any of your systems negates the primary effect to fight the side effect, so they will likely not choose any of them. They are simply looking for the right balance between helping teams get back to a competitive level, while discouraging purposeful tanking. Perhaps, tweaking the percentages will do it. Perhaps, including more than just the #1 pick in the lottery selection will do it.

 

By the way, the guys on WGR550 (like 'em or not) had an interesting point yesterday. Let's say that they switch to one of the systems that you suggested; what will happen? Most bubble team next year will be sellers at the trade deadline, since the now larger chance of getting one of the two possible franchise players will be more valuable than a moderate chance of making the playoffs and very small chance at winning the Cup. You might actually see more teams not competing as they should.

 

Personally, I would just include a couple more spots in the lottery and then let it run for a while. See if it needs any more tweaking than that.

[SwampD]

Are Buffalo fans so trained to be miserable that we won't allow ourselves to have nice things? This hasn't been an issue for ten years, and now, right when we are actually going to benefit from it by getting a good player, we want to change it?!?! The lottery is fine. Hopefully after this year we wont even give a crap about the lottery anymore,… like most of the good teams don't,… because they are actually thinking about actual f#####g hockey games played in the month of May.

[shrader]

Are Buffalo fans so trained to be miserable that we won't allow ourselves to have nice things? This hasn't been an issue for ten years, and now, right when we are actually going to benefit from it by getting a good player, we want to change it?!?! The lottery is fine. Hopefully after this year we wont even give a crap about the lottery anymore,… like most of the good teams don't,… because they are actually thinking about actual f#####g hockey games played in the month of May.

 

Football and baseball don't need a lottery so I'm not sure why the NHL suddenly wants to upgrade theirs. Ok, I do know why they want to, but it is stupid reasoning. Suddenly an elite talent shows up and teams are whining that they have no shot at him. Where were these complaints for John Tavares? The whole thing is pathetic. This system has worked fine since the dawn of man, they shouldn't be messing with it now.