Brawndo Posted March 6, 2014 Report Share Posted March 6, 2014 (edited) The Devils are getting their first round pick back. Darren Dreger @DarrenDreger 2m Hearing the NHL has reversed part of its penalty against the Devils for cap circumvention (Kovalchuk contract).... Darren Dreger @DarrenDreger 1m NHL will award Devils with the 30th pick in the Draft instead of the 1st round pick as usually determined. Also forgiving $1.5 mil of fine. Edited March 6, 2014 by BRAWNDO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted March 6, 2014 Report Share Posted March 6, 2014 I've been working on an app that drafts. Before I get to 2014, the app runs down who he would have picked from the Sabres draft position in the first two rounds, 2002-2012. Roughly 23 picks, 7 or 8 flops, 14 or 15 good picks Apologies in advance, he's a bit of a tool. http://www.limedata.us/blog/b33.php For those who just want to see the results, it is a bit defense heavy, but I didn't allow any judgment calls, best player available. Toffoli Stajan Kids: Chris Tierney PK Subban and Vlasic McQuaid and Del Zotto Weircioch and Kulikov Shea Weber and Mike Weber Nathan Beaulieu.and Trevor Daley Ceci and Maatta Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted March 6, 2014 Report Share Posted March 6, 2014 The Devils are getting their first round pick back. Darren Dreger @DarrenDreger 2m Hearing the NHL has reversed part of its penalty against the Devils for cap circumvention (Kovalchuk contract).... Darren Dreger @DarrenDreger 1m NHL will award Devils with the 30th pick in the Draft instead of the 1st round pick as usually determined. Also forgiving $1.5 mil of fine. This is complete ######. The nhl should be embarrassed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted March 6, 2014 Report Share Posted March 6, 2014 So if by some chance the Islanders give us their pick this year and we wind up picking 1 and 3, we pretty much have to take Ekblad first, right? They walk away with the top d-man and the leftover of Bennett/Reinhart. Honestly, given this scenario of picking 1 and 3 (which really seems about 50/50 to me at this point), I'd be very happy with any of the 3 possible combinations. Whether or not the Isles defer is another topic all together, but I'd call it a coin flip at this point. They're so unpredictable with their incompetence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewookie1 Posted March 6, 2014 Report Share Posted March 6, 2014 I want them to win the lottery just so we can watch the Islanders squirm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted March 6, 2014 Report Share Posted March 6, 2014 Snow said on Sportsnet radio 590 today that they have to decide on deferment of their 1st round pick by June 1st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted March 6, 2014 Report Share Posted March 6, 2014 So if by some chance the Islanders give us their pick this year and we wind up picking 1 and 3, we pretty much have to take Ekblad first, right? They walk away with the top d-man and the leftover of Bennett/Reinhart. Honestly, given this scenario of picking 1 and 3 (which really seems about 50/50 to me at this point), I'd be very happy with any of the 3 possible combinations. Whether or not the Isles defer is another topic all together, but I'd call it a coin flip at this point. They're so unpredictable with their incompetence. I want them to win the lottery just so we can watch the Islanders squirm Snow said on Sportsnet radio 590 today that they have to decide on deferment of their 1st round pick by June 1st. The Islanders will probably be the number one competition for the 1st overall pick next year with the Sabres so them winning the lottery would help Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted March 6, 2014 Report Share Posted March 6, 2014 I don't care if we have 1 and 3, you take Reinhart. He has the look of a star forward, to me. The rest look like they're going to be key contributors at best, but not game changers. Reinhart is the ultimate goal in my mind. The most hilarious thing I've seen today: "The NHL gave the New Jersey Devils more today than the New York Islanders got for Thomas Vanek." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted March 6, 2014 Report Share Posted March 6, 2014 I don't care if we have 1 and 3, you take Reinhart. He has the look of a star forward, to me. The rest look like they're going to be key contributors at best, but not game changers. Reinhart is the ultimate goal in my mind. The most hilarious thing I've seen today: "The NHL gave the New Jersey Devils more today than the New York Islanders got for Thomas Vanek." :w00t: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted March 6, 2014 Report Share Posted March 6, 2014 I don't care if we have 1 and 3, you take Reinhart. He has the look of a star forward, to me. The rest look like they're going to be key contributors at best, but not game changers. Reinhart is the ultimate goal in my mind. The ultimate scenario ( if the Islanders give us the 2014 Pick) would be having the first and second picks. Take your pick of forwards and Ekblad. Then call up the Oilers and offer their pick of Myers, Risto, Ekblad or Zadorov for Hall or RNH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted March 6, 2014 Report Share Posted March 6, 2014 The ultimate scenario ( if the Islanders give us the 2014 Pick) would be having the first and second picks. Take your pick of forwards and Ekblad. Then call up the Oilers and offer their pick of Myers, Risto, Ekblad or Zadorov for Hall or RNH. Reinhart is the pick of forwards. This is clear now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted March 6, 2014 Report Share Posted March 6, 2014 The ultimate scenario ( if the Islanders give us the 2014 Pick) would be having the first and second picks. Take your pick of forwards and Ekblad. Then call up the Oilers and offer their pick of Myers, Risto, Ekblad or Zadorov for Hall or RNH. I wouldn't trade Zadorov for Hall or RNH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted March 6, 2014 Report Share Posted March 6, 2014 I wouldn't trade Zadorov for Hall or RNH. I would. As much as I love Zadorov. Only issue is it would take much much more to get Hall than just Zadorov. Probably Zadorov, Girgensons and a pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted March 6, 2014 Report Share Posted March 6, 2014 I would. As much as I love Zadorov. Only issue is it would take much much more to get Hall than just Zadorov. Probably Zadorov, Girgensons and a pick. I most definitely would not do that, ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted March 6, 2014 Report Share Posted March 6, 2014 Liger overvalues his players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted March 6, 2014 Report Share Posted March 6, 2014 I was thinking Zadorov and Ullmark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted March 6, 2014 Report Share Posted March 6, 2014 My first draft board of the year. This will be like the football guys, who have their weekly draft boards, McShea and the other guy. There's a lot of 17 year olds I haven't looked at, and I haven't looked at any 18 year olds, so this may improve from where I thought was a pretty bad draft, to an OK draft. I'm not to the point where I can value everyone, and for the first run I'm fairly unsure about the USHL kids. I didn't count collegiate, High Schoolers, Finns, Russians, and SEL, but I do value SWE-jr players. I don't have Nylander's stats yet. 6: Robb Fabbri 36.5 (if you read my blog post, you would know that this means he came in with a worse score than the 36th best forward for the decade(2002-2011), and better than the 37th best. 5: Sonny Milano 30.5 4: Aaron Ekblad 29.5 best defenseman 3: McKeown Roland 29.4, just ahead of Ekblad 2: Michael Dal Colle 14.5 1: Sam Bennett 6.5 The rankings will flow a bit as I get a better comparison of the different metrics. Overall the scores are higher than I expected, an earlier version had Bennett leading at 22. Also Nick Ritchie may appear in future top picks, I'm not sure yet the best way to value power forwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom webster Posted March 6, 2014 Report Share Posted March 6, 2014 The ultimate scenario ( if the Islanders give us the 2014 Pick) would be having the first and second picks. Take your pick of forwards and Ekblad. Then call up the Oilers and offer their pick of Myers, Risto, Ekblad or Zadorov for Hall or RNH. The ultimate scenario is having the top two picks next year. In my perfect world, a young Sabres' squad battles for a playoff spot to the surprise of everyone and just misses out on the last day of the season only to win the lottery and pick first ahead of the Islanders who finish with the worst record in the league after deferring their 2015 pick to Buffalo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 (edited) My first draft board of the year. This will be like the football guys, who have their weekly draft boards, McShea and the other guy. There's a lot of 17 year olds I haven't looked at, and I haven't looked at any 18 year olds, so this may improve from where I thought was a pretty bad draft, to an OK draft. I'm not to the point where I can value everyone, and for the first run I'm fairly unsure about the USHL kids. I didn't count collegiate, High Schoolers, Finns, Russians, and SEL, but I do value SWE-jr players. I don't have Nylander's stats yet. 6: Robb Fabbri 36.5 (if you read my blog post, you would know that this means he came in with a worse score than the 36th best forward for the decade(2002-2011), and better than the 37th best. 5: Sonny Milano 30.5 4: Aaron Ekblad 29.5 best defenseman 3: McKeown Roland 29.4, just ahead of Ekblad 2: Michael Dal Colle 14.5 1: Sam Bennett 6.5 The rankings will flow a bit as I get a better comparison of the different metrics. Overall the scores are higher than I expected, an earlier version had Bennett leading at 22. Also Nick Ritchie may appear in future top picks, I'm not sure yet the best way to value power forwards. Reinhart doesn't crack your top six? That wants an explanation. Edited March 7, 2014 by Eleven Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 (edited) Reinhart doesn't crack your top six? That merits an explanation. I use 5 metrics. First, is the league that you play in. If you look at the draft over the last 15 years, the WHL(where Reinhart plays) in, the top 10 is a wasteland for forwards. Whether it's Gilbert Brule, Thomas Hickey, Zach Hamil, Keaton Ellerby,Kyle Beach, Scott Glennie, or Brett Connolly. I think you can argue that it's coincidence, but the type of analysis I'm doing, I have to take meaning from this. The OHL(where Bennett plays) doesn't have this problem. Second, I look at the age. Reinhart is older than Bennett. I've talked a lot about age, and I used to believe Reinhart was benefited with a Nov birthdate, but my current thought is that the first quarter (17.9-18 or June July Aug) like Bennett are benefited by about 20%, the third quarter (18.3-18.6 or Jan, Feb Mar) are penalized 20%, the other two quarters are pretty much even. But 20% is a lot of points benefit for Bennett that Reinhart doesn't get. Where I was mistaken before was that teams would penalize the fourth quarter, when they shouldn't. But either way, Bennett gets a lot of bonus that Reinhart doesn't. The other three metrics, size, plus minus, and one I don't want to tell you, Reinhart doesn't excel. Reinhart comes in at about 50, Patrice Bergeron rates 48, so he could become an excellent hockey player, but he's in a group that has some flat out failure. As I say, these ratings will float some, as I pin down exactly how WHL should be treated vs OHL, how players the size of Reinhart should be treated vs everyone else, and this will happen for each of the 5 metrics, I may even add a metric. But if you haven't, read the blog post linked above, I do an alternative reality sabres draft using this app, I think it's interesting. Edited March 7, 2014 by rakish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 But if you haven't, read the blog post linked above, I do an alternative reality sabres draft using this app, I think it's interesting. This thread is 30 pages. Can you re-post that link? I am curious who you are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 I've been working on an app that drafts. Before I get to 2014, the app runs down who he would have picked from the Sabres draft position in the first two rounds, 2002-2012. Roughly 23 picks, 7 or 8 flops, 14 or 15 good picks Apologies in advance, he's a bit of a tool. http://www.limedata.us/blog/b33.php For those who just want to see the results, it is a bit defense heavy, but I didn't allow any judgment calls, best player available. Toffoli Stajan Kids: Chris Tierney PK Subban and Vlasic McQuaid and Del Zotto Weircioch and Kulikov Shea Weber and Mike Weber Nathan Beaulieu.and Trevor Daley Ceci and Maatta Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Buffalo Posted March 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 Wow, that would have been something. You are right, heavily D, problem is the Sabres would have been and are still lite on forwards that can score. Your metrics have any analysis for team need or separately run a forwards scenario? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 The ultimate scenario is having the top two picks next year. In my perfect world, a young Sabres' squad battles for a playoff spot to the surprise of everyone and just misses out on the last day of the season only to win the lottery and pick first ahead of the Islanders who finish with the worst record in the league after deferring their 2015 pick to Buffalo. Which is why I keep saying that short of winning the lottery this year, the Islanders are going to give up their pick this year. I'm almost convinced at this point that if they give us next year's pick, the Islanders will definitely win that lottery. It would be a nice final nail in the Snow coffin, giving up Connor McDavid for a couple months of Thomas Vanek. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 So if by some chance the Islanders give us their pick this year and we wind up picking 1 and 3, we pretty much have to take Ekblad first, right? They walk away with the top d-man and the leftover of Bennett/Reinhart. Honestly, given this scenario of picking 1 and 3 (which really seems about 50/50 to me at this point), I'd be very happy with any of the 3 possible combinations. If Buffalo gets the first pick and any of the next 3 picks from the Isles, I'd trade out of 1 with an understanding that whomever takes Ekblad. Either for a later 1st or a youg 1st line player. Maybe even a 2015 first if possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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