Official 2014 NHL Draft thread

[BuffaloBorn]

Have faith; they won last night, but they lost five straight before that.

:beer:

[Robviously]

Have faith; they won last night, but they lost five straight before that.

Can I just mention again how much I HATE this? Like really, really hate this? This is the fourth year in a row where I'm hoping the *don't* grind out some wins late in the season. That's basically a lifetime in pro sports. Is is too much to ask that we have an entire season where I'm not conflicted about the outcome of every game?

 

And you just know we're going to start off crappy next year so that the McDavid and Eichel talk can really ramp up before we draft 10th.

[LGR4GM]

I'm starting to focus more on guys ranked 16+. The Sabres already have 3 2nd round picks in June and they'll probably pick up a late first this year at the trade deadline.

 

As much as I hope the Sabres pick in the top 3 this year, they need some direct hits afterwards too. I also wonder if they're looking at goalies. Thatcher Demko might be on the list late in the first round or with our first pick in the second.

I'd maybe take a GT in the 2nd round since we have 3 picks but there is no reason to take one in the first round. None.

 

As for guys to keep an eye on for late first round through 2nd round: Alex Tuch 6'3" (RW), Adrian Kempe 6'1" (C/LW), Reid Gardiner 5'11" (C/RW), Clark Bishop 6'1" (LW), Nick Magyar 6'2" (C/RW), Emil Aronsson 6' ©, Spencer Watson 6' (RW)

Edited January 26, 2014 by LGR4GM

[Assquatch]

I'd maybe take a GT in the 2nd round since we have 3 picks but there is no reason to take one in the first round. None.

 

As for guys to keep an eye on for late first round through 2nd round: Alex Tuch 6'3" (RW), Adrian Kempe 6'1" (C/LW), Reid Gardiner 5'11" (C/RW), Clark Bishop 6'1" (LW), Nick Magyar 6'2" (C/RW), Emil Aronsson 6' ©, Spencer Watson 6' (RW)

 

No to Bishop. It would be next to impossible to play hockey while only moving diagonally.

[Robviously]

 

I'd maybe take a GT in the 2nd round since we have 3 picks but there is no reason to take one in the first round. None.

If they think Demko is a future star, that would be a reason.

[qwksndmonster]

Can I just mention again how much I HATE this? Like really, really hate this? This is the fourth year in a row where I'm hoping the *don't* grind out some wins late in the season. That's basically a lifetime in pro sports. Is is too much to ask that we have an entire season where I'm not conflicted about the outcome of every game?

 

And you just know we're going to start off crappy next year so that the McDavid and Eichel talk can really ramp up before we draft 10th.

I love your passion, kid. Don't ever let that go.

[North Buffalo]

the x axis is the age of draft picks, starting at the left at 17.9 (for June draft), those are September born players. Each bar is one month.

 

The y axis. The purple tells you the number of pics, so the picks increase each month from September to January. The scale is times 50, so for the players I looked at, about 250 were January picks. Then there's a big dropoff to the number of December picks, which came to about 100.

 

The y axis green tells you the average games played, so the players picked at 17.9 play about 6 games each per season for the players that I looked at. The green bars hang out near 7 for September,Aug,July,June,May,Apr, then they decline a bit for March, Feb, and January. The green bars are higher, more games played per pick, for December, November, and October.

 

What I'm arguing is that when people talk about this, they are often talking about the purple bars, it's interesting to them that the spread isn't consistent. What interests me is the green bars, that the games played in the NHL are also not consistent.

 

Interesting discussion. My son who is 9, June BD, plays baseball. He is one of the younger kids on his teams because a lot of kids in our area born in September - December are being held back a year, possibly for the reasons that are stated above.

 

So he falls into to the young category, despite that he is physically one of tallest and strongest kid on his teams. He is a lefty and can really throw with a natural breaking ball.

 

So far he enjoys the game, has the most hits on his teams the last two years We will see where all the above goes. His problem is developmentally, he is in the middle of his class in certain things and I wonder how much that has to do with his age. Once he gets something, he catches up quickly... Not sure to what degree the expectation are put on him because of his size.

 

He is eligible for travel baseball this year, not sure about it and a lot will depend on him and wether he wants to. Our town league is pretty competitive so we will see. Any input I will listen to. Really I do my best to stay out of the way and just keep it fun, so that I don't poison the well.

Edited January 27, 2014 by North Buffalo

[26CornerBlitz]

McKeen’s Interview: Sam Reinhart, Kootenay Ice

 

McKeen’s Hockey correspondent Randy Gorman interviewed Sam Reinhart earlier in the season prior to the World Junior Championships. Reinhart continues to hold the number one spot on the McKeen’s Mid- Term Rankings released this past Thursday.

 

Fresh off a compelling Top Prospects game in which he scored a goal and an assist as captain for Team Cherry, providing energy each time he was on the ice. Sam’s father Paul Reinhart was an assistant coach minding the youngest of his burgeoning NHL dynasty, looking to join brothers Griffin and Max in the coming draft. Griffin was selected fourth overall in the 2012 NHL Draft by the Islanders, and Max in the third round in 2010 by Calgary.

[Kr632]

Does anyone know why connor mcdavid would have been in buffalo a few days ago? I am told I spoke to him. However I had no clue who he was. There were a few younger hockey players that got off a bus. I guess he was one of them

[qwksndmonster]

Does anyone know why connor mcdavid would have been in buffalo a few days ago? I am told I spoke to him. However I had no clue who he was. There were a few younger hockey players that got off a bus. I guess he was one of them

The NHL rigged both the upcoming lotteries in Buffalo's favor because Pegula.

[Assquatch]

Does anyone know why connor mcdavid would have been in buffalo a few days ago? I am told I spoke to him. However I had no clue who he was. There were a few younger hockey players that got off a bus. I guess he was one of them

They play at Niagara (St. Catharines) Thursday but they have a game at Belleville (between Toronto and Ottawa) tonight first.

[MattPie]

No to Bishop. It would be next to impossible to play hockey while only moving diagonally.

 

But he can go from one corner of the ice to the other very quickly!

[sicknfla]

 

 

Interesting discussion. My son who is 9, June BD, plays baseball. He is one of the younger kids on his teams because a lot of kids in our area born in September - December are being held back a year, possibly for the reasons that are stated above.

 

So he falls into to the young category, despite that he is physically one of tallest and strongest kid on his teams. He is a lefty and can really throw with a natural breaking ball.

 

So far he enjoys the game, has the most hits on his teams the last two years We will see where all the above goes. His problem is developmentally, he is in the middle of his class in certain things and I wonder how much that has to do with his age. Once he gets something, he catches up quickly... Not sure to what degree the expectation are put on him because of his size.

 

He is eligible for travel baseball this year, not sure about it and a lot will depend on him and wether he wants to. Our town league is pretty competitive so we will see. Any input I will listen to. Really I do my best to stay out of the way and just keep it fun, so that I don't poison the well.

 

I have 3 boys who have all played, and still play, travel ball. Here in Florida it is huge. Playing your local rec ball is fine but if he is any good you will need to get him into travel ball at some point. My youngest is 11. Last year we went travel only. It was his decision because he didn't like the difference between the teams. The level of play is night and day.

 

As for the schooling part i am not sure. My wife is a guidance counselor so she is in charge of the education. I am in charge of the athletics. :-)

Edited January 27, 2014 by sicknfla

[Taro T]

the x axis is the age of draft picks, starting at the left at 17.9 (for June draft), those are September born players. Each bar is one month.

 

The y axis. The purple tells you the number of pics, so the picks increase each month from September to January. The scale is times 50, so for the players I looked at, about 250 were January picks. Then there's a big dropoff to the number of December picks, which came to about 100.

 

The y axis green tells you the average games played, so the players picked at 17.9 play about 6 games each per season for the players that I looked at. The green bars hang out near 7 for September,Aug,July,June,May,Apr, then they decline a bit for March, Feb, and January. The green bars are higher, more games played per pick, for December, November, and October.

 

What I'm arguing is that when people talk about this, they are often talking about the purple bars, it's interesting to them that the spread isn't consistent. What interests me is the green bars, that the games played in the NHL are also not consistent.

There is a very simple and reasonable explanation as to why the Oct-Dec kids 'hit' at a higher rate than Jan-Sep kids. They have 1 additional year of hockey under their belts when they are draft eligible and have less variability in where they will finally pan out. Scouts have a better feel for a kid after his 2nd year of junior rather than his 1st. He's closer to where he'll be when his development is done and the players that don't have a high ceiling aren't selected.

 

2 interesting questions (at least to me) are:

 

 

1. Any statistical significance to the August kids panning out at a higher rate than those around them? And

 

2. Based on this chart, I would like to see games per contract/tryout for undrafted players to see if there is a correlation between birth month and games for those as well. I'd expect Oct-Dec undrafted players that make it to the NHL to hit at the same rate as their older brethren but for there to be more of them than other birth month players because the true 'late bloomers' would have needed to show more while draft eligible (due to their being further in their careers than their older brethren that made the birth year cut) to get drafted and would have missed their window of opportunity by a narrower margin.

[rakish]

There is a very simple and reasonable explanation as to why the Oct-Dec kids 'hit' at a higher rate than Jan-Sep kids. They have 1 additional year of hockey under their belts when they are draft eligible and have less variability in where they will finally pan out. Scouts have a better feel for a kid after his 2nd year of junior rather than his 1st. He's closer to where he'll be when his development is done and the players that don't have a high ceiling aren't selected.

 

2 interesting questions (at least to me) are:

 

 

1. Any statistical significance to the August kids panning out at a higher rate than those around them? And

 

2. Based on this chart, I would like to see games per contract/tryout for undrafted players to see if there is a correlation between birth month and games for those as well. I'd expect Oct-Dec undrafted players that make it to the NHL to hit at the same rate as their older brethren but for there to be more of them than other birth month players because the true 'late bloomers' would have needed to show more while draft eligible (due to their being further in their careers than their older brethren that made the birth year cut) to get drafted and would have missed their window of opportunity by a narrower margin.

 

 

 

1. If you look at the chart, the August pick plays about 8.1 games per year.

2. Been working on this some, I think there is more of a correlation between (late round and undrafted success stories) and the fourth quarter born. I hope to have something out within a week

 

As to your first point, yeah, maybe there's some of that. Where we probably disagree is that I think there are more January born players in the CHL. A quick look at 2 teams (Halifax and Baie-Comeau) suggests this, but I haven't really looked at it.

 

I haven't decided where I am with the Bennett/Reinhart question.

[Taro T]

1. If you look at the chart, the August pick plays about 8.1 games per year.

2. Been working on this some, I think there is more of a correlation between (late round and undrafted success stories) and the fourth quarter born. I hope to have something out within a week

 

As to your first point, yeah, maybe there's some of that. Where we probably disagree is that I think there are more January born players in the CHL. A quick look at 2 teams (Halifax and Baie-Comeau) suggests this, but I haven't really looked at it.

 

I haven't decided where I am with the Bennett/Reinhart question.

Regarding the bolded: :unsure: . I'd be shocked if there weren't more January birthdays in junior than other birth months, exactly for the reasons discussed in this thread.

 

 

I'd be interested to see the results of your analysis.

 

As for the August B-days, I'd be interested in seeing the raw data to see if that is skewed significantly by a relatively few outliers or if there is some other cause such as something like in European leagues, the cutoff age to play in an agegroup is August (not claiming it is, just pulling that as an example), or as stated earlier if it even is a significant outlier. Is there something behind it, or is it just a random blip?

Edited January 27, 2014 by Taro T

[rakish]

I haven't really looked at these issues in a year, but my memory is I looked at the Euro question and there was a big Jan/Dec differential in every country I looked at except Norway (I think), and there the big differential was Sept/Oct. The problem is you get past the hockey playing countries and there's not enough data.

 

The August picks are about 190, looking at the picks, Crosby won't skew the data, because he doesn't play that many games a year, which is the problem with using games as the valuation. I've never been bothered by the 8.1 for August, because it's similar to the Sept(18.9) and October, they're just picked a year earlier. I think you are right that the older picks hit more, and in my current research Detroit is finding a lot of 20 year olds that someone like Regier would pass on looking for Alpha.

[LGR4GM]

I haven't really looked at these issues in a year, but my memory is I looked at the Euro question and there was a big Jan/Dec differential in every country I looked at except Norway (I think), and there the big differential was Sept/Oct. The problem is you get past the hockey playing countries and there's not enough data.

 

The August picks are about 190, looking at the picks, Crosby won't skew the data, because he doesn't play that many games a year, which is the problem with using games as the valuation. I've never been bothered by the 8.1 for August, because it's similar to the Sept(18.9) and October, they're just picked a year earlier. I think you are right that the older picks hit more, and in my current research Detroit is finding a lot of 20 year olds that someone like Regier would pass on looking for Alpha.

Quick question, how many 4th quarter players drafted in the 1st round have played 20+ games since 2003?

[rakish]

remember that this is last years work, so a lot of these guys like Hertl and Tarasenko have moved from the bottom list to the top chart

[Eleven]

Some interesting stuff goin' on in here.

[Hoss]

Tank stats after tonight's game:

 

51 games played, 35 points, last place (three points behind Edmonton for second with three games in hand).

 

On pace for 56 points. 20 of the other 29 teams have 56 points or more right now.

 

15 points from fifth-to-last.

[WildCard]

Tank stats after tonight's game:

 

51 games played, 35 points, last place (three points behind Edmonton for second with three games in hand).

 

On pace for 56 points. 20 of the other 29 teams have 56 points or more right now.

 

15 points from fifth-to-last.

Edmonton's up 2-1 after the 1st

[Rasmus_]

Firmly entrenched in the Sam Reinhart for Buffalo campaign. :) Last nights game was the typical tank stank. Mr. Murray make the trades needed :)

[North Buffalo]

So is Stafford hurt or hope please hope... is he on the trading block and that is the reason they are holding him out?

 

Nuts, just saw the dreaded UBI next to his name... so much for hope... up with Tank! Get Stafford back soon... or was he starting to go on one of his dreaded scoring streaks for two weeks and the Sabres couldn't afford him in the lineup and still Tank.

Edited January 28, 2014 by North Buffalo

[Derrico]

Well, we lost in regulation, the Oilers won and Isels lost in regulation.

 

Tank on Sabres Nation, Tank on.