Official 2014 NHL Draft thread

[Hoss]

Bennett had a very good PPG this season. Players move around too much to care about total points, I only can care about PPG

 

As far as who I should have picked Liger? I think Reinhart will be fine, Bennett a bit better on style points, Nylander will score a little more.

 

So Liger, what's the appeal to this defenseman you love at 21?

Bennett played 23 total games this year. Five points in 12 NHL games and 24 in 11 OHL games. How exactly do you balance that? I'd be interested in a breakdown using him as an example since PPG at the NHL level would obviously be largely different than PPG at the OHL level.

[rakish]

I don't mean to call what you are doing foolish.  You've put a lot of time and effort into it, that's great.  I just question how much, if any conclusion can be drawn from it.

 

People come to different conclusions based upon the same facts all the time, I think disbelief in someone else's writing in normal.

[rakish]

Bennett played 23 total games this year. Five points in 12 NHL games and 24 in 11 OHL games. How exactly do you balance that? I'd be interested in a breakdown using him as an example since PPG at the NHL level would obviously be largely different than PPG at the OHL level.

 

 

Each dot is its own team year.  Bennett only has one dot because I don't use playoffs, for the same reason I don't use WJC, so he didn't get an NHL dot.  I doubt I would have given Bennett an OHL dot had he played 60 games in the AHL, but a lot of people have two dots.  The very bottom has the list of players, their league, and their score.  So you can't tell for a traded player in the same league, but you can for a changed league.  The tool-tip in the chart also tells you the league.

 

The PPG is multiplied by the league index.  Off the top of my head, I think NHL is 4000 and OHL is about 400 for forwards.  Then you got to consider team context.  If Kingston is a high scoring team, Bennett will score more, if he had played for the Sabres, he would of scored fewer points, so you need to create some context for the player.  So had I given Bennett a dot for the playoffs, 5/12 is about .4, times 4000, about 1600 before I start adding and subtracting for context.  That's why Pastrnak has such big numbers, but he scored well in the NHL, he should have big numbers. 

 

If you look at Pastrnak's dots, the AHL and the NHL are near each other (well... in my world), meaning that the league index adjusted somewhat appropriately, sometimes they're not, so I try to address that.  It also tells you that what happened with the Bruins wasn't that abnormal, because he was having an excellent year in the AHL

 

I try to take into account all the data I have, I use about 5 things, some data come and go.  That's why the numbers float some.  I use some things that are different between forwards than defensemen.

[shrader]

I think you are pointing out good questions and flaws in the system but overall Rakish's re-rank is fairly solid.  Granted we will have to see how it holds up going forward but I think he is on the right track and doing some good work.  

 

I just don't want people to be overly critical or focus on the exception (Reinhart) when most of the other players are following the rule.

 

You go to this "exception vs. the rule" argument far too often.  That and youtube videos must be right on the first page of the LGR cliche handbook.  I mention Reinhart simply because he is probably the third listing in your handbook.  Anyway, if this list is generated on a yearly basis, you will so those rankings fluctuate quite a bit.  To put it in your words, Reinhart would actually wind up being much more of the rule instead of the exception.

[LGR4GM]

You go to this "exception vs. the rule" argument far too often.  That and youtube videos must be right on the first page of the LGR cliche handbook.  I mention Reinhart simply because he is probably the third listing in your handbook.  Anyway, if this list is generated on a yearly basis, you will so those rankings fluctuate quite a bit.  To put it in your words, Reinhart would actually wind up being much more of the rule instead of the exception.

You're cheerful this afternoon.

[LGR4GM]

Hey Rakish could you add in something to the formula which helps to use the percentage of team goals a player was involved in?  So for instance say Sam Reinhart when he played for Kootenay this season, say he either assisted on or scored on 65% of the teams goals.  Would there be a way to take that into consideration.  

 

I ask because I am always curious to see who is an offensive driver and who is an offensive passenger.   

[TrueBlueGED]

I was there, too. If he bombs, I will own up.

Even if he doesn't bomb, you'll never escape the pull-up jokes :p

[rakish]

Hey Rakish could you add in something to the formula which helps to use the percentage of team goals a player was involved in?  So for instance say Sam Reinhart when he played for Kootenay this season, say he either assisted on or scored on 65% of the teams goals.  Would there be a way to take that into consideration.  

 

I ask because I am always curious to see who is an offensive driver and who is an offensive passenger.   

 

Two problems.  The first is time involved. I decided to get what I want, I couldn't scrape, so I'm hand typing off of elite prospects.  I have a few thousand player/years now, so adding a metric would be a few weeks of work. If I had thought it through, I could have saved goals for and goals against, since I use the difference as my metric of how good the team is.  Having both numbers might be useful, as you say.

 

The second problem is accuracy.  Anthony DeAngelo spent half the season with Sarnia and half with Sault Ste. Marie.  I know how many points he scored in Sarnia, but not how many Sarnia scored while he was there.  I could go through box scores, which would be misery, and OHL stats may be to the point where that number is available, but it certainly wouldn't be universally available.

[Hoss]

Even if he doesn't bomb, you'll never escape the pull-up jokes :P

Reinhart wasn't the target of those jokes. That was Bennett.

Each dot is its own team year.  Bennett only has one dot because I don't use playoffs, for the same reason I don't use WJC, so he didn't get an NHL dot.  I doubt I would have given Bennett an OHL dot had he played 60 games in the AHL, but a lot of people have two dots.  The very bottom has the list of players, their league, and their score.  So you can't tell for a traded player in the same league, but you can for a changed league.  The tool-tip in the chart also tells you the league.

 

The PPG is multiplied by the league index.  Off the top of my head, I think NHL is 4000 and OHL is about 400 for forwards.  Then you got to consider team context.  If Kingston is a high scoring team, Bennett will score more, if he had played for the Sabres, he would of scored fewer points, so you need to create some context for the player.  So had I given Bennett a dot for the playoffs, 5/12 is about .4, times 4000, about 1600 before I start adding and subtracting for context.  That's why Pastrnak has such big numbers, but he scored well in the NHL, he should have big numbers. 

 

If you look at Pastrnak's dots, the AHL and the NHL are near each other (well... in my world), meaning that the league index adjusted somewhat appropriately, sometimes they're not, so I try to address that.  It also tells you that what happened with the Bruins wasn't that abnormal, because he was having an excellent year in the AHL

 

I try to take into account all the data I have, I use about 5 things, some data come and go.  That's why the numbers float some.  I use some things that are different between forwards than defensemen.

Thanks for a breakdown. Actually a very simple, statistical-driven analysis.

[rakish]

It isn't very different than the site IKP quotes from time to time, just a bit more developed I think

[TrueBlueGED]

Reinhart wasn't the target of those jokes. That was Bennett.

 

 

I know. I guess I was just assuming that both Reinhart and Bennett are not going to bust, so if Reinhart does, then Bennett likely makes it. So pull-ups chasing Eleven away from the better player would still be joke-worthy.

[Thorner]

Reinhart was my clear choice as well.

I've seen nothing since that makes me regret those words.

 

I feel the same way. Doing it again right now, I'm still taking Reinhart. He was probably the best forward in that draft. Certainly in the top few. Scoring 65 points in 47 regular season games, 9 points in 7 playoffs games (6 goals), 3 points in 3 AHL games, and leading the WJC in scoring as the best player in the tournament doesn't change that.

 

He's definitely not the 45th best player taken in the 2014 NHL Draft.

Edited May 30, 2015 by Thorny