Official 2014 NHL Draft thread

[LGR4GM]

Thanks liger

 

Part 2 of this series will be how each team drafted using my system did. What jumps out at me so far is that Nashville and surprisingly Winnipeg know what they are doing, but that will be a week or so

Nashville has been quietly smart for years.

 

I will say Lemiuex and his size and goal production is encouraging. One consideration though even strength points versus power play. I mention that because lemiuex has something like 50% of his goals on the pp

[Derrico]

For a team that has a horrendous power play I can't wait to have that big body in front of the net with the man advantage.

[rakish]

I finished my analysis of the 2014 draft.  It's just a snapshot in time, because I was just trying to see what teams are using a model similar to mine, and what teams aren't.  Therefore some players who the model didn't like at the time of the draft, like Lemieux, would be more liked now, since Lemieux is having a pretty big year.  Others like Cornel  aren't having a big year this year, so if we were talking the strength of the pipeline today, Cornel would come off the list.

 

How I did scoring was 2 points for significantly above the line of regression(19 picks), one point for good pick.  The list ends up being similar to the WJC list that I posted above in December

 

St Louis 7

Tampa, Nashville 6

Detroit, Toronto 5
Anaheim, Buffalo, Florida 4

Vancouver, San Jose, Carolina, Islanders, LA, Winnipeg 3

 

The full list is at limedata.us.  I'll do a redraft at the end of the year, I probably will never do all 7 rounds of an earlier draft.

[rakish]

Finally, the reranking mentioned above is done. I send you to the website, not only to make Ghost roll his eyes, but so you can see the rankings at different ages because I don't have javascript here.  The rankings at age 15 and 16 are a bit rough.

 

I only used the previous regular season not the WJC, and didn't average age 17 and 18, which really bites Reinhart, since his WHL year was not great.  For Sabres fans, in their post-draft regular seasons, I have Martin and Oloffson as having good years relative to their draft position, Lemieux was OK

 

I believe that the good teams draft better than the bad teams because they are using a better process to value prospects.  In my re-rank of the 2014 draft, there are 4 Predators in the top 50, 3 Sharks, 3 Ducks, 3 Lightning, 3 Leafs, 3 Red Wings, 3 Jets, 3 Coyotes (?), none of those eight teams had a top seven pick, but I believe each improved more from the 2014 draft than most of those in the top seven. (I exclude the Canucks, Virtanen was hurt and the Sabres, Reinhart will be fine)

 

I'll be back with my top 50 for the 2015 draft, hopefully before it happens.  I'm encouraging people to put out their own top 50, so when WJC comes around, we can see how you did.

[LGR4GM]

Finally, the reranking mentioned above is done. I send you to the website, not only to make Ghost roll his eyes, but so you can see the rankings at different ages because I don't have javascript here.  The rankings at age 15 and 16 are a bit rough.

 

I only used the previous regular season not the WJC, and didn't average age 17 and 18, which really bites Reinhart, since his WHL year was not great.  For Sabres fans, in their post-draft regular seasons, I have Martin and Oloffson as having good years relative to their draft position, Lemieux was OK

 

I believe that the good teams draft better than the bad teams because they are using a better process to value prospects.  In my re-rank of the 2014 draft, there are 4 Predators in the top 50, 3 Sharks, 3 Ducks, 3 Lightning, 3 Leafs, 3 Red Wings, 3 Jets, 3 Coyotes (?), none of those eight teams had a top seven pick, but I believe each improved more from the 2014 draft than most of those in the top seven. (I exclude the Canucks, Virtanen was hurt and the Sabres, Reinhart will be fine)

 

I'll be back with my top 50 for the 2015 draft, hopefully before it happens.  I'm encouraging people to put out their own top 50, so when WJC comes around, we can see how you did.

I have been waiting for this, thank you.

Also of note, the Predators scouting department over the last few drafts seems to be really dialed in. 

Oh and Kirkland made the list... that guy I wanted us to draft in the late 2nd or early 3rd is on your list.  Still feel good about him.

[rakish]

I have been waiting for this, thank you.

Also of note, the Predators scouting department over the last few drafts seems to be really dialed in. 

Oh and Kirkland made the list... that guy I wanted us to draft in the late 2nd or early 3rd is on your list.  Still feel good about him.

 

 

You also championed Larkin, who my model didn't like last year.  I haven't solved the valuation problem when someone plays with a great player (Eichel) on a different line (which I think he was)

[shrader]

Isn't this whole analysis incredibly premature?

[LGR4GM]

You also championed Larkin, who my model didn't like last year.  I haven't solved the valuation problem when someone plays with a great player (Eichel) on a different line (which I think he was)

I still like Larkin.  I also liked Kempe too.

 

Isn't this whole analysis incredibly premature?

I think it is a good way to track draft classes and see the flaws in the model so you can correct those going forward.

[shrader]

I think it is a good way to track draft classes and see the flaws in the model so you can correct those going forward.

 

So how does your "Sam Reinhart will be fine" mantra fit with this?  An attempt at ranking a draft class that has played a cumulative total of 181 NHL regular season games is beyond premature.  There may be some messages that can be taken away from it, but to use it to say that one team is drafting better than another is foolish.  Take a look next year when he re-runs it and the whole thing gets reshuffled and looks nothing like it does right now.  What will the message be then?

[LGR4GM]

So how does your "Sam Reinhart will be fine" mantra fit with this?  An attempt at ranking a draft class that has played a cumulative total of 181 NHL regular season games is beyond premature.  There may be some messages that can be taken away from it, but to use it to say that one team is drafting better than another is foolish.  Take a look next year when he re-runs it and the whole thing gets reshuffled and looks nothing like it does right now.  What will the message be then?

I still wish we had drafted Bennett but Reinhart will be fine.  The thing to remember about Sam is he worked on other parts of this game.  His all around game improved while being stuck on a terrible Kootenay team.  It is kind of like Sean Monahan. They are exceptions to rules but we shall see how this looks going forward. 

[WildCard]

I still wish we had drafted Bennett but Reinhart will be fine.  The thing to remember about Sam is he worked on other parts of this game.  His all around game improved while being stuck on a terrible Kootenay team.  It is kind of like Sean Monahan. They are exceptions to rules but we shall see how this looks going forward. 

I may be wrong, but was it you who was a major advocate of taking Reinhart? Not that most weren't, but the bold makes it appear otherwise.

[LGR4GM]

I may be wrong, but was it you who was a major advocate of taking Reinhart? Not that most weren't, but the bold makes it appear otherwise.

I was actually just in the process of re-reading dozens of pages in this thread to make sure I remembered that very thing correctly.  It seems I waffled quite a bit going back n forth between Bennett and Reinhart.  In the end Reinhart's playoff performance pushed me into the Reinhart camp.  I am looking forward to seeing him in Buffalo this year.

[WildCard]

I was actually just in the process of re-reading dozens of pages in this thread to make sure I remembered that very thing correctly.  It seems I waffled quite a bit going back n forth between Bennett and Reinhart.  In the end Reinhart's playoff performance pushed me into the Reinhart camp.  I am looking forward to seeing him in Buffalo this year.

I think it was Hoss who was the most ardent supporter of Reinhart actually 

[Hoss]

I think it was Hoss who was the most ardent supporter of Reinhart actually

Allow me to tell you how ardently I admire and love Reinhart.

 

Yes, that was me.

[WildCard]

Allow me to tell you how ardently I admire and love Reinhart.

 

Yes, that was me.

Curious, how much stock do you put into the rankings above?

[Eleven]

I think it was Hoss who was the most ardent supporter of Reinhart actually 

 

I was there, too.  If he bombs, I will own up.

[rakish]

So how does your "Sam Reinhart will be fine" mantra fit with this?  An attempt at ranking a draft class that has played a cumulative total of 181 NHL regular season games is beyond premature.  There may be some messages that can be taken away from it, but to use it to say that one team is drafting better than another is foolish.  Take a look next year when he re-runs it and the whole thing gets reshuffled and looks nothing like it does right now.  What will the message be then?

 

 

With Reinhart, What I was trying to convey that his WJC was good, his season, not as good.  If I judged prospects by WJC, then Reinhart would rank much better.  Unfortunately, not everyone plays WJC and it's only a few games, therefore I don't use it.

 

Regarding foolish: Actually I did the same thing last year,  I ranked each player in relation to those selected around him, then compiled each teams score for real good pick, and good pick. For the most part, I got the same answers.  Will I get more or less the same answers next year? I expect so, more or less.  Though check next year, and keep me in line.

[dudacek]

Reinhart was my clear choice as well.

I've seen nothing since that makes me regret those words.

[LGR4GM]

I was there, too.  If he bombs, I will own up.

If he bombs I will too.  I think he will be fine but hell I've been wrong already twice today. 

[rakish]

Reinhart was my clear choice as well.

I've seen nothing since that makes me regret those words.

 

I succumed to peer pressure, I feel so ashamed

[LGR4GM]

I succumed to peer pressure, I feel so ashamed

Think Bennett was the better option? 

[Hoss]

Curious, how much stock do you put into the rankings above?

Not a whole lot. Partially because I haven't taken the time to really dive into it and partially because it put a lot of stock into pure stats. Reinhart didn't have a good year statistically in Kootenay, but he was good for them. Dropping him so drastically shows an inability for the system to take other factors into account.

Another example of this is Bennett being hurt all year yet still sitting at the top.

 

(That's my thought on how it reflects Reinhart vs Bennett. I'm sure there are similar cases with other players, but I haven't actually looked hard at it. I give him tons of credit for the effort he puts into it. He's shown that his system has had plenty of success in judging talent before)

Edited May 29, 2015 by Hoss

[rakish]

Bennett had a very good PPG this season.  Players move around too much to care about total points, I only can care about PPG

 

As far as who I should have picked Liger? I think Reinhart will be fine, Bennett a bit better on style points, Nylander will score a little more.

 

So Liger, what's the appeal to this defenseman you love at 21?

[shrader]

With Reinhart, What I was trying to convey that his WJC was good, his season, not as good.  If I judged prospects by WJC, then Reinhart would rank much better.  Unfortunately, not everyone plays WJC and it's only a few games, therefore I don't use it.

 

Regarding foolish: Actually I did the same thing last year,  I ranked each player in relation to those selected around him, then compiled each teams score for real good pick, and good pick. For the most part, I got the same answers.  Will I get more or less the same answers next year? I expect so, more or less.  Though check next year, and keep me in line.

 

I don't mean to call what you are doing foolish.  You've put a lot of time and effort into it, that's great.  I just question how much, if any conclusion can be drawn from it.

[LGR4GM]

Bennett had a very good PPG this season.  Players move around too much to care about total points, I only can care about PPG

 

As far as who I should have picked Liger? I think Reinhart will be fine, Bennett a bit better on style points, Nylander will score a little more.

 

So Liger, what's the appeal to this defenseman you love at 21?

Zboril?  

 

He's 6'2".  Had 13g and 33pts in 44games or a 0.75ppg rate.  I agree with you btw that PPG is the way to value scoring.  Sometimes I do like to break it down to gpg and apg but that is for guys with similar ppg.  

Zboril is physical, has good size, he skates well, he scores points, and his ranking and position both fall right in line with us.  We need a LHD in the system and we need a good player at #21 which is right where my boy is ranked. Size, scoring, position of need, ranks equivalent to our 21st overall pick. 

I don't mean to call what you are doing foolish.  You've put a lot of time and effort into it, that's great.  I just question how much, if any conclusion can be drawn from it.

I think you are pointing out good questions and flaws in the system but overall Rakish's re-rank is fairly solid.  Granted we will have to see how it holds up going forward but I think he is on the right track and doing some good work.  

 

I just don't want people to be overly critical or focus on the exception (Reinhart) when most of the other players are following the rule.