Official 2014 NHL Draft thread

[Norcal]

This is completely made up.

I just "binged" credibility of hockeybuzz.com and umm well the results were interesting. My goal is not to make up ridiculous stuff but I guess as a long suffering fan I WANNA believe even the most ridiculous information if it will improve the team sooner rather than later. My bad folks.

[Hoss]

I don't want the pick to be traded. What we would get would be a few pieces that aren't any better than what we've had in recent history that resulted in a lot of middle of the pack finishes.

 

Get one elite talent and be happy with it.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I just "binged" credibility of hockeybuzz.com and umm well the results were interesting. My goal is not to make up ridiculous stuff but I guess as a long suffering fan I WANNA believe even the most ridiculous information if it will improve the team sooner rather than later. My bad folks.

 

No sweat.

 

You didn't have to bing that. We all could have told you.

 

I'm surprised no one did. We must be on our best behavior today.

[Derrico]

No sweat.

 

You didn't have to bing that. We all could have told you.

 

I'm surprised no one did. We must be on our best behavior today.

 

Just read through the last few posts and wow was that ever tame. This tank has really beaten us down.....

[LGR4GM]

According to Eklund from HockeyBuzz...Chasing this one down, but at least two teams I have talked to in the last 36 hours have told me they have heard the Sabres, who currently have set themselves up nicely in the next two drafts, are letting it be quietly known they would consider two "top line" prospects + for the top overall pick in the upcoming NHL draft should that be the pick they obtain...I also read a similar version saying current NHL top six and near ready prospect as mentioned above. Not sure what the credibility of a site like this is but found it interesting so I thought I would share it.

Ecklund is full of ######. I can only see Murray trading the pick if he thinks we are getting the NYI pick at 4.

[rakish]

Part 2 is out, Part 1 I posted a week or two ago, I think it was page 29

 

To summarize, I'm writing an app that drafts, it is still a work in progress. To evaluate the app, I have it take a Sabre Alternative Universe draft, finding what it thinks is the best pick for the Sabres first two round picks between 2002 and 2012, about 23 picks. This time the results are very similar to the first effort, a bit better.

 

Toffoli

Dubinski

Corey Perry

Kulikov

Del Zotto

Hamonic

PK Subban

Vlassic

McQuaid

Eminger

Daley

Beaulieu

Maatta

Ceci

Severson

 

Using the app with this alternative universe draft yields this 2014 ranking, the app uses the adjectives 'Excellent' and 'Deep' when looking at 2014. The parenthetical is the position that player would fit into the decade(2002-2011), so Bennett ranks between the 6th best and the 7th best, only behind Crosby, Gagner, Tavares, Patrick Kane, Eric Staal, Couturier

 

Sam Bennett(6.5)

Roland McKeown(11.5 for defensemen)

Michael Dal Colle(13.5)

Brendan Perlini(14.5)

Robb Fabbri(22.5)

Leon Draisaitl(25.5)

Aaron Ekblad(32.5)

Nick Ritchie(32.5)

Sonny Milano(44.5)

Jake Virtanen(37.5)

Sam Reinhart(57.5)

Nik Ehlers(64.5)

Alex Tuch(59.5)

Haydn Fleury(78.5)

Jarad McCann(80.5)

Josh Ho-Sang(86.5)

Nik Goldobin(85.5)

Connor Bleackley(95.5)

 

Part 1 got a fair amount of pushback, so in part 2 I separated out the leagues, and listed Bennett vs the OHL players and Reinhart vs the WHL players. Not only does the app miss some excellent players, like Myers, Lucic, Bergeron just to name three, it's still a work in progress, very few Euro's no college players, no High School, no overagers. Seguin is too low, Eberle is too low, lots of work still to do.

 

As for 2014, I'm only looking at 25 or so prospects, so I would be surprised if new names didn't appear in future lists.

 

I added a metric this week, that benefits Draisaitl.

Loyalty questioned Draisaitl's ppg, since he has been better lately. I had Draisaitl at 1.59, or 1.69 I forget. I haven't updated the 17 year old stats in a couple weeks, I want to wait until the place I'm taking them from is final. So I moved Draisaitl's ppg to 2, and that moved him up with Perlini at 14.5 on the everyone list, and between Schenn and Kane on the WHL list. It would probably matter more to Draisaitl's ranking if I adjusted some of the other metrics, but since they are interconnected, I can't. I would need box scores for each game you wanted to count, it would get ugly.

 

I think Draisaitl seems low because he's sixth, but the better way to look at it is that the app has him at 25.5 for the decade, there are some excellent players in that range, like Landeskog(19), Dustin Brown(21), Huberdeau(24), Horton(25). As to the number one pick, I agree, you should consider Draisaitl, there's something wrong with that team, the Olympics were weird, is it him? Don't know.

 

The good news for Sabres fans is that one of the smalls ((if I remember correctly) Fabbri,Ehlers,Goldobin,Ho-Sang) are going to fall, so the Sabres have a good chance at getting 3 players (or at least 2) the app thinks can play. Bennett, Draisaitl, Ehlers would be great. Dal Colle, Perlini, Goldobin would be great. Dal Colle, Ritchie, Fabbri would be great.

 

The app, of course, will change some as I try to make it better.

[Hoss]

I like how nobody can spell Eklund or Ekblad on here.

[shrader]

No sweat.

 

You didn't have to bing that. We all could have told you.

 

I'm surprised no one did. We must be on our best behavior today.

 

This was just about the best I've ever seen an Eklund post handled around here. It was actually a learning experience for once. :clapping: goes out to everyone involved (except LGR, that guy's a douche).

 

And just to expand on this one a bit. The subject of trading the top pick comes up each year and I may as well be able to cut and paste this response. The top picks do not get traded anymore. Post-lockout, no one has ever moved out of the top 4 slots. The 2010 2nd overall pick (Seguin) was the only one that moved, but that was from Toronto's trade for Kessel which was made much earlier in the year and they thought they were going to be a playoff team. Toronto then went into a massive downward spiral after the deal.

 

The earliest pick moved on draft day in the post-lockout era was the 5th overall in 2008. Toronto moved up from 7 into that slot to take Luke Schenn. The last time the #1 was moved was all the way back in 2003, when Pittsburgh moved up from #3 to take Fleury. Moving top draft picks just doesn't happen anymore. They are far too valuable.

[LGR4GM]

This was just about the best I've ever seen an Eklund post handled around here. It was actually a learning experience for once. :clapping: goes out to everyone involved (except LGR, that guy's a douche).

 

And just to expand on this one a bit. The subject of trading the top pick comes up each year and I may as well be able to cut and paste this response. The top picks do not get traded anymore. Post-lockout, no one has ever moved out of the top 4 slots. The 2010 2nd overall pick (Seguin) was the only one that moved, but that was from Toronto's trade for Kessel which was made much earlier in the year and they thought they were going to be a playoff team. Toronto then went into a massive downward spiral after the deal.

 

The earliest pick moved on draft day in the post-lockout era was the 5th overall in 2008. Toronto moved up from 7 into that slot to take Luke Schenn. The last time the #1 was moved was all the way back in 2003, when Pittsburgh moved up from #3 to take Fleury. Moving top draft picks just doesn't happen anymore. They are far too valuable.

Yea he is. Anyways, you are correct and the chance of the top pick moving is almost 0.

[WildCard]

Bored at work and this is my favorite thread so I thought I'd ask a few questions to everyone: 1) Regardless if GMTM's expertise, who do you think is better, Reinhart it Bennett? From the app above the latter seems to be rated much higher than the former. 2) Given the the Isles are likely picking in the top 5 this year, and this draft is about 6-7 players immediate impact players deep, do we want the Isles to start winning a few games so they get log-jammed at say, 5-6 rather than let them get 3rd overall?

[MattPie]

Bored at work and this is my favorite thread so I thought I'd ask a few questions to everyone: 1) Regardless if GMTM's expertise, who do you think is better, Reinhart it Bennett? From the app above the latter seems to be rated much higher than the former. 2) Given the the Isles are likely picking in the top 5 this year, and this draft is about 6-7 players immediate impact players deep, do we want the Isles to start winning a few games so they get log-jammed at say, 5-6 rather than let them get 3rd overall?

 

Who is saying that? Most of the folks here are saying Reinhart is the only player that has a reasonable shot at playing next year.

[LGR4GM]

Bored at work and this is my favorite thread so I thought I'd ask a few questions to everyone: 1) Regardless if GMTM's expertise, who do you think is better, Reinhart it Bennett? From the app above the latter seems to be rated much higher than the former. 2) Given the the Isles are likely picking in the top 5 this year, and this draft is about 6-7 players immediate impact players deep, do we want the Isles to start winning a few games so they get log-jammed at say, 5-6 rather than let them get 3rd overall?

1) Reinhart and Bennett are almost even in the eyes of many scouts and sources. I personally like Reinhart a little more but Bennett seems to have a more phsyical side. In all honesty I feel more comfortable leaving that up to our scouts and TM, they should be able to see who is better.

 

2) It would be better for us if the Islanders pick later because I believe that would have more of an impact on them deferring or not. At 3rd/4th overall I think they make the pick but at 5-7th they might baulk. Hard to say with Garth Snow being so erratic.

 

Who is saying that? Most of the folks here are saying Reinhart is the only player that has a reasonable shot at playing next year.

I'd say Reinhart and Ekblad will probably play next year. Bennett has an outside chance. Dal Colle and Draisaitl could each use another year in the CHL

[Derrico]

Dal Colle had better get sent back.....

[Crusader1969]

1) I like Bennett's edge to his game and the fact he is 9 months younger, however I think they need to take the best player even if that means Ekblad. They can always trade one of their blue-chip D prospects down the road for top line talent.

 

I'd also contact the Oilers especially if they finish ahead of Florida to see what they will give up to get the #1 pick.

 

of course assuming the Sabres win the lottery!.

 

2) If Islanders draft 2, 3 or 4 this year I will hope let us keep the pick. The way things are going they will finish in 2nd or 3rd last.

[qwksndmonster]

As for picking Ekblad 1) We already have 2 blue chippers on the blue line and 2) Ekblad already physically dominated the kids in his league. Eh. No thanks.

[LGR4GM]

1) I like Bennett's edge to his game and the fact he is 9 months younger, however I think they need to take the best player even if that means Ekblad. They can always trade one of their blue-chip D prospects down the road for top line talent.

 

I'd also contact the Oilers especially if they finish ahead of Florida to see what they will give up to get the #1 pick.

 

of course assuming the Sabres win the lottery!.

 

2) If Islanders draft 2, 3 or 4 this year I will hope let us keep the pick. The way things are going they will finish in 2nd or 3rd last.

In the Salary Cap era has this ever happened?

[Eleven]

This is completely made up.

 

By Tim Murray.

 

Jeremy White ‏@JeremyWGR Mar 19

You don’t need “Sources say” on Murray maybe trading top pick. MURRAY said it. Of course he’s willing to listen. http://forgedinbuffalo.com/media/sports/sources-sabres-willing-trade-top-pick/ …

[Brawndo]

1) I like Bennett's edge to his game and the fact he is 9 months younger, however I think they need to take the best player even if that means Ekblad. They can always trade one of their blue-chip D prospects down the road for top line talent.

 

I'd also contact the Oilers especially if they finish ahead of Florida to see what they will give up to get the #1 pick.

 

of course assuming the Sabres win the lottery!.

 

2) If Islanders draft 2, 3 or 4 this year I will hope let us keep the pick. The way things are going they will finish in 2nd or 3rd last.

 

 

 

That would set up the Sabres in a comparable situation to what the Oilers are in right now, except the Sabres would have a plethora of defenseman and lack of top forwards.

[nhl2012]

With the forwards in this draft being unpredictable (not like Stamkos, Nathan M., etc.), the Sabres should select Ekblad and use him as bait in 2015 for Connor. Especially if it is the Flames or Oil that finish last in 2015 -- they will want Ekblad even more and he will be even better. He is a sure thing guy and an asset to deal in 2015 IMO for the top pick. Obviously this is a huge risk but the team would be better served with a risky move like this than drafting a project forward from this off class (i.e., avoid the next Alexander Daigle or Patrick Stefan).

[LGR4GM]

With the forwards in this draft being unpredictable (not like Stamkos, Nathan M., etc.), the Sabres should select Ekblad and use him as bait in 2015 for Connor. Especially if it is the Flames or Oil that finish last in 2015 -- they will want Ekblad even more and he will be even better. He is a sure thing guy and an asset to deal in 2015 IMO for the top pick. Obviously this is a huge risk but the team would be better served with a risky move like this than drafting a project forward from this off class (i.e., avoid the next Alexander Daigle or Patrick Stefan).

You couldn't trade Ekblad, Reinhart, Bennett, Dal Colle, and Draisaitl combined for the top pick in 2015. This post is completely unrealistic. Also the rest of your assumption that we would be drafting a "project forward" is highly questionable. It is extremely rare for a 1st overall pick to miss and it really hasn't happened in the last decade unless you count the defenders taken first overall.

 

Trade Ekblad for the first overall in 2015... go home you're drunk.

[shrader]

By Tim Murray.

 

Jeremy White ‏@JeremyWGR Mar 19

You don’t need “Sources say” on Murray maybe trading top pick. MURRAY said it. Of course he’s willing to listen. http://forgedinbuffa...ade-top-pick/ …

 

Wasn't there a lot of "talk" last year that Colorado was shopping their pick? GMs say a lot of things, but that doesn't mean they'll actually do it.

[WildCard]

 

 

Who is saying that? Most of the folks here are saying Reinhart is the only player that has a reasonable shot at playing next year.

I think you could get away with someone lower than 1-3 if your the isles. With Tavares on your team and snows incompetence I think thus try to pair whoever they get with him on the too line. Sorry my phone sucks but as for the Bennett vs Reinhary debate from what I've read it seems like the ceiling is just much higher in Bennett. Also, someone mentioned earlier how Reinharts glamor may just be fading off evaluate we've know about him for so long this season. Is there truth in this or is Bennett really the next Gilmour?

[Eleven]

Wasn't there a lot of "talk" last year that Colorado was shopping their pick? GMs say a lot of things, but that doesn't mean they'll actually do it.

 

Completely agree. But this "rumor" has a basis in fact: Murray did say it. And it may be a smart move, too, depending on what's offered, etc.

[Hoss]

 

 

By Tim Murray.

 

Jeremy White ‏@JeremyWGR Mar 19

You don’t need “Sources say” on Murray maybe trading top pick. MURRAY said it. Of course he’s willing to listen. http://forgedinbuffalo.com/media/sports/sources-sabres-willing-trade-top-pick/ …

 

Large difference. Of course he'll listen. Doesn't mean he's "looking to trade it" or has named a price...

Every GM says they're willing to listen on just about everything...

[26CornerBlitz]

@WGR550

. @robray32 relaying a chat with Brian Burke on the #Sabres GM Search: "So many guys wanted that because of how well they're set up."