Official 2014 NHL Draft thread

[WildCard]

And let's face it. Every single one of the guys we are talking about are not going to wind up as top pair defensmen. We need to break from the thought around here that every single Sabre prospect is the second coming.

I'm not denying that, but when your d-men prospects heavily outweigh your forward prospects, you need to draft a forward. Unless TM lands a few offensive prospects at the deadline, I take Reinhart,.

[TrueBlueGED]

No one is going to have a whole fleet of Norris level guys, including the Sabres if they draft Ekblad and everyone else develops successfully. That group could very well end up with a bunch of top pair d-men though. That's exactly what most of the Cup winners have had:

 

-Anaheim had Pronger, Niedermayer (about as close to two Norris-level d-men as you'll ever get), Beauchemin, and a not quite aging yet Sean O'Donnell

-Detroit had Lidstrom, Rafalski, and Kronwall

-Chicago had Keith and Seabrook for both Cups and a lot of other quality pieces each year

-LA had Doughty and did drop off a bit past him, but some solid vets like Scuderi and Mitchell

-Boston had Chara and then a bunch of depth guys

 

These are a bunch of solid defensive units. I leave out Pittsburgh because they didn't have that true horse, but the there were a bunch of highly valued guys there. I'd be willing to entertain the possibility that this Buffalo group could grow to be elite if they do want to add Ekblad.

 

What I was getting at is I think the odds are favorable that we already have a horse in the system, and at worst, we still have a really solid collective top-4. We have one we know is a top pairing D, and three others who might be (and if they flop may still be good 2nd pair guys), plus another 3 who project to second pairing and could be nice 3rd pair players if they don't max their potential. Obviously it's nearly impossible they all hit their ceiling and a few will bust entirely...but even if the "hit" rate is only 50% and none develop into a total stud, that's still a really nice top-4. I'm definitely in favor of redundancy in the system to account for busts...and I think we have that. Even in the worst case scenario, at least we still have Ehrhoff, who is a legit top-pair guy.

 

Forwards are another matter entirely. If the worst case scenario hits there (Grigs/Armia both bust, Girgensons is a 3rd liner, and Hodgson/Ennis are who they are...and I think this worse case scenario is much more likely to play out than the worst case with our defensemen), we're not going to be a contender regardless of what our blue line looks like. We simply can't afford not to get some redundancy among forwards. Sure it can change with player movement, but if we're taking Ekblad then we're relying on either an existing player to get us some top forward talent or a prospect for prospect swap. How often do those things happen? We've been hearing for two years now how Edmonton was right to take Yakupov because they can just flip one of their forwards for defensive help. Yes, Edmonton is incompetent and not the best example, but I still can't think of many instances where 1st line forwards or forward prospects were moved.

 

I might feel differently if Ekblad were in a different prospect stratosphere than the forwards, but nothing I've read indicates that is the case. It's not like we're comparing the value of a #1D to a #2C.

[IKnowPhysics]

What I was getting at is I think the odds are favorable that we already have a horse in the system, and at worst, we still have a really solid collective top-4. We have one we know is a top pairing D, and three others who might be (and if they flop may still be good 2nd pair guys), plus another 3 who project to second pairing and could be nice 3rd pair players if they don't max their potential. Obviously it's nearly impossible they all hit their ceiling and a few will bust entirely...but even if the "hit" rate is only 50% and none develop into a total stud, that's still a really nice top-4. I'm definitely in favor of redundancy in the system to account for busts...and I think we have that. Even in the worst case scenario, at least we still have Ehrhoff, who is a legit top-pair guy.

 

Forwards are another matter entirely. If the worst case scenario hits there (Grigs/Armia both bust, Girgensons is a 3rd liner, and Hodgson/Ennis are who they are...and I think this worse case scenario is much more likely to play out than the worst case with our defensemen), we're not going to be a contender regardless of what our blue line looks like. We simply can't afford not to get some redundancy among forwards. Sure it can change with player movement, but if we're taking Ekblad then we're relying on either an existing player to get us some top forward talent or a prospect for prospect swap. How often do those things happen? We've been hearing for two years now how Edmonton was right to take Yakupov because they can just flip one of their forwards for defensive help. Yes, Edmonton is incompetent and not the best example, but I still can't think of many instances where 1st line forwards or forward prospects were moved.

 

I might feel differently if Ekblad were in a different prospect stratosphere than the forwards, but nothing I've read indicates that is the case. It's not like we're comparing the value of a #1D to a #2C.

 

You complete me.

 

I like where we are with respect to D prospect depth. And we definitely are lacking in forward depth, especially high-talent, hard-to-find scoring. So unless our hand is forced to take Ekblad (either because he's that good, or he's that much better than what's available to us at selection time), we should definitely be grabbing forwards like plastic hippos grabbing marbles.

 

We should also be closely examining the goalie situation, but forwards should definitely come first in the higher rounds.

Edited February 28, 2014 by IKnowPhysics

[North Buffalo]

What I was getting at is I think the odds are favorable that we already have a horse in the system, and at worst, we still have a really solid collective top-4. We have one we know is a top pairing D, and three others who might be (and if they flop may still be good 2nd pair guys), plus another 3 who project to second pairing and could be nice 3rd pair players if they don't max their potential. Obviously it's nearly impossible they all hit their ceiling and a few will bust entirely...but even if the "hit" rate is only 50% and none develop into a total stud, that's still a really nice top-4. I'm definitely in favor of redundancy in the system to account for busts...and I think we have that. Even in the worst case scenario, at least we still have Ehrhoff, who is a legit top-pair guy.

 

Forwards are another matter entirely. If the worst case scenario hits there (Grigs/Armia both bust, Girgensons is a 3rd liner, and Hodgson/Ennis are who they are...and I think this worse case scenario is much more likely to play out than the worst case with our defensemen), we're not going to be a contender regardless of what our blue line looks like. We simply can't afford not to get some redundancy among forwards. Sure it can change with player movement, but if we're taking Ekblad then we're relying on either an existing player to get us some top forward talent or a prospect for prospect swap. How often do those things happen? We've been hearing for two years now how Edmonton was right to take Yakupov because they can just flip one of their forwards for defensive help. Yes, Edmonton is incompetent and not the best example, but I still can't think of many instances where 1st line forwards or forward prospects were moved.

 

I might feel differently if Ekblad were in a different prospect stratosphere than the forwards, but nothing I've read indicates that is the case. It's not like we're comparing the value of a #1D to a #2C.

 

And we have been saying this for years to Darcy... nothing new and I couldn't agree more, get a high value center pick in this draft. Keep an eye out for a late developing D man. D take longer to develop generally and can a stud can be found and developed. I want centermen, guys who put out effort and can score. Get er done.

Edited February 28, 2014 by North Buffalo

[Eleven]

And we have been saying this for years to Darcy... nothing new and I couldn't agree more, get a high value center pick in this draft. Keep an eye out for a late developing D man. D take longer to develop generally and can a stud can be found and developed. I want centermen, guys who put out effort and can score. Get er done.

 

Center. CENTER.

[26CornerBlitz]

@SabresProspects

Sam Reinhart netted 2+1 last night to extend point streak to 21 games. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NW7Ci8wX4uA …

 

#Samson: 51gp 34-59-93, 31pts/12 Feb gms

[IKnowPhysics]

Using point equivalency, that could equate to 43 points (based on his season) to 62 points (based on his February) over an 82 game NHL season. For reference, MacKinnon's on pace for 62 points this season, and Reinhart's scoring more points per game than he did.

Edited February 28, 2014 by IKnowPhysics

[Hoss]

Using point equivalency, that could equate to 43 points (based on his season) to 62 points (based on his February) over an 82 game NHL season. For reference, MacKinnon's on pace for 62 points this season, and Reinhart's scoring more points per game than he did, by a hair.

 

Different leagues from the two.

[WildCard]

Different leagues from the two.

Is the Q better/worse then the OHL?

[Robviously]

Is the Q better/worse then the OHL?

About 100x worse, give or take. It's basically the OHL but without hitting or defense.

[Peppy22]

If the Sabres lose the aforementioned UFAs, they could get a boost and still be by far the worst team in the league ;)

 

Yeah but you never know. Young players make giant steps from time to time.

 

One rookie is highly unlikely to make that big of a difference. Also, this is where the "McDavid/Eichel can't be the plan" theory is true. You don't draft a lesser talent or the guy that isn't as much of a fit so you can be worse. You don't suck for an entire season just to suck more. You make the best pick, and, if you want to be in the bottom again next year, you manipulate other parts of the roster.

 

In the past some teams just need one rookie to get a boost. I am talking of finishing 25 or 24th instead of dead last in case of "boost" not cup run or even playoffs.

 

Are you saying that if they draft a forward they will automatically start winning?

 

see above. There would be a better to chance to not finish last.

 

And what if Reinhart is a Toews type player, is it suddenly okay to pass on that opportunity? Barring a trade of several of our D or D prospects, drafting a forward is the only choice.

 

This might sound odd but players like Jonathan Toews come around more often than players like Shea Weber.

 

 

______

 

I would indeed take Ekblad as it looks like next years drafter will be even deeper when it comes to forwards than this year.

Edited February 28, 2014 by Peppy22

[LGR4GM]

Different leagues from the two.

Is the Q better/worse then the OHL?

About 100x worse, give or take. It's basically the OHL but without hitting or defense.

Is it really that hard to google this stuff? Sam Reinhart is Captain and Center for the Kootenay Ice of the Western Hockey League or WHL. He does not play in the Q.

 

The WHL may be a small step below the OHL in terms of how defense plays but it isn't the no defense of the Q and it has some really strong teams.

[LGR4GM]

That being said we have updates:

 

2/20/14

Michael Dal Colle: 35g, 48a, 83pts, 57gp = 42g, 57a, 99pts, 68gp

 

Sam Bennett: 32g, 50a, 82pts, 49gp = 44g, 69a, 113pts, 68gp

 

Samson Reinhart: 32g, 56a, 88pts, 48gp = 45g, 79a, 124pts, 68gp

 

Jake Virtanen: 38g, 21a, 59pts, 60gp = 43g, 24a, 67pts, 68gp

Updates 2/28/14

 

Michael Dal Colle: 35g, 52a, 87pts, 61g = 39g, 58a, 97pts, 68gp

 

Sam Bennett: 32g, 52a, 84pts, 52gp = 42g, 68a, 110pts, 68gp

 

Sam Reinhart: 34g, 59a, 93pts, 51gp = 45g, 79a, 124pts, 68gp

 

Jake Virtanen: 40g, 23a, 63pts, 62gp = 44g, 25a, 69pts, 68gp

Edited February 28, 2014 by LGR4GM

[TrueBlueGED]

Yeah but you never know. Young players make giant steps from time to time.

 

In the past some teams just need one rookie to get a boost. I am talking of finishing 25 or 24th instead of dead last in case of "boost" not cup run or even playoffs.

 

see above. There would be a better to chance to not finish last.

 

This might sound odd but players like Jonathan Toews come around more often than players like Shea Weber.

 

______

 

I would indeed take Ekblad as it looks like next years drafter will be even deeper when it comes to forwards than this year.

 

Definitely disagree that Toews-types come along more often than Weber-types. It's also worth noting that it's possible (although unlikely) we have a Weber in the making in our system...we don't have anybody who can sniff Toews' jock with respect to being a two-way force on the top line.

 

Regarding the second bold, that's also why we still have to go forward this year--we need more than one top-shelf forward prospect.

[Hoss]

 

 

 

Is it really that hard to google this stuff? Sam Reinhart is Captain and Center for the Kootenay Ice of the Western Hockey League or WHL. He does not play in the Q.

 

The WHL may be a small step below the OHL in terms of how defense plays but it isn't the no defense of the Q and it has some really strong teams.

 

The claim was that he played in the OHL, not the Q. Which was still wrong, but you have to be accurate when you shout.

[shrader]

The claim was that he played in the OHL, not the Q. Which was still wrong, but you have to be accurate when you shout.

 

That was my take. The Q was actually in reference to MacKinnon. But then again, we've never before seen LGR fly off the handle for a very minor error. :P

[WildCard]

Is it really that hard to google this stuff? Sam Reinhart is Captain and Center for the Kootenay Ice of the Western Hockey League or WHL. He does not play in the Q.

 

The WHL may be a small step below the OHL in terms of how defense plays but it isn't the no defense of the Q and it has some really strong teams.

Well, I was out drinking and I just briefly checked my phone so yeah, it wasn't the most convenient option, sorry. I was referring to Mackinnon's career in the Q, not Reinhart's, who I mistook for playing in the OHL.

 

Back to the conversation, so Reinhart's absurd stretch after the break, in a stronger league than Mackinnon's Q, at least defensively, should bode pretty well for us.

 

Reinhart's last year (current season) in the WHL: 34 G, 59 A, 93 PTS in 51 GP

MacKinnon's final year in the QMJHL: 32 G, 43 A, 75 PTS in 44 GP.

 

I'm not saying he's better than MacKinnon, but if the WHL is more solid defensively than the Q and Reinhart's putting up these kind of numbers, we should have a pretty solid pick, if this is the way we go.

 

Also, I'm not sure of the line combinations, but it doesn't seem like Reinhart plays with anyone comparable to the player in Druin that MacKinnon got to. The top three leaders in points on the Kootenay Ice roster are centers, and the first winger listed is Tim Bozon, drafter by the Canadians in 2012.

Edited February 28, 2014 by WildCard

[LGR4GM]

That was my take. The Q was actually in reference to MacKinnon. But then again, we've never before seen LGR fly off the handle for a very minor error. :P

I have no idea what you are talking about.

 

Oddly enough I was quite calm and eye rolly when I wrote that.

[Robviously]

The Panthers and Islanders both lost in regulation this afternoon, in case you forgot that nightmares can come true.

 

Flames and Oilers play each other tonight so at least one of the other tank teams will get points today.

[Hoss]

Flames and Oilers going to OT tonight is the first good news on the tank in a while. Now let's hope the Oilers win it.

 

Poop. The Flames win it in OT.

[Brawndo]

Flames and Oilers going to OT tonight is the first good news on the tank in a while. Now let's hope the Oilers win it.

 

Poop. The Flames win it in OT.

 

Did the a Oilers forget how to score?

[Iron Crotch]

So we have a combined 10 first and second round picks over the next two drafts? Combined with the 5 we had in the 2013 draft that is 15 1st/2nd rounders over a 3 year span. Ridiculous!

[Weave]

So we have a combined 10 first and second round picks over the next two drafts? Combined with the 5 we had in the 2013 draft that is 15 1st/2nd rounders over a 3 year span. Ridiculous!

 

Yep. Ridiculous. Time for getting some live, ready bodies.

[Iron Crotch]

Yep. Ridiculous. Time for getting some live, ready bodies.

 

This is why I cringe a bit when we talk about trading more (current) roster players for prospects and picks. I'm all for rebuilding through the draft but having a few NHL-ready players would be nice too.

 

Edit: I forgot that Carrier was St. Louis' 2nd round pick in 2013... so that makes 16 1st/2nd rounders from 2013 to 2015!

Edited March 2, 2014 by Potato

[IKnowPhysics]

So we have a combined 10 first and second round picks over the next two drafts? Combined with the 5 we had in the 2013 draft that is 15 1st/2nd rounders over a 3 year span. Ridiculous!

 

And that's BEFORE any moves we make with Moulson, Tallinder, Halak, Stewart, and anyone else before the deadline. Simply outstanding. I'm pretty excited.

 

HARD CORE TANK CORPS.

Edited March 2, 2014 by IKnowPhysics