Assquatch Posted October 31, 2013 Report Posted October 31, 2013 I'm generally a lurker in this thread and the board in general, but I'll throw in just to remain eligible. When I first read the thread I was going to bet one unit on the Sabres opponent each game which would have had me sitting pretty at this point but since I never placed any bets, I'm at $1,000 and I'd actually like to put $100 on the Sabres to win since the Rangers seem to have as much trouble scoring as we do. I figured this out today. You would have $1905 if you had bet one unit against the Sabres in every game to this point. Quote
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted October 31, 2013 Author Report Posted October 31, 2013 I figured this out today. You would have $1905 if you had bet one unit against the Sabres in every game to this point. #Blueprint I'm having a hard time on this one.... Haven't missed a bet yet, but I may ponder this and make it a game time decision.... Two Crappy teams with a tough line NY has the worst goal differential in the league, yet they are 2-1 favorites over the Sabres........ Quote
Wyldnwoody44 Posted October 31, 2013 Report Posted October 31, 2013 I'll place 100 on the sabres tonight Quote
Wyldnwoody44 Posted November 1, 2013 Report Posted November 1, 2013 Took a lil gamble, down to 2125 Quote
ubkev Posted November 1, 2013 Report Posted November 1, 2013 At 1155 thanks to this team of no talent hacks. I think I can reverse progressive bet this all year long and still make fake money. Quote
wjag Posted November 1, 2013 Report Posted November 1, 2013 At 2705 and climbing... I truly hated yesterday's bet. Quote
Wyldnwoody44 Posted November 1, 2013 Report Posted November 1, 2013 At 2705 and climbing... I truly hated yesterday's bet. I need to catch u lol.... But I keep betting on the sabres like an idiot Quote
nobody Posted November 1, 2013 Report Posted November 1, 2013 Weakest one yet! It was a struggle; so I just went with the historical fact. I didn't like it either. :) Quote
wjag Posted November 1, 2013 Report Posted November 1, 2013 Anaheim at Buffalo Ducks -180 Buffalo +160 Quote
Drunkard Posted November 2, 2013 Report Posted November 2, 2013 At 900 and I'll put 360 on Anaheim. Quote
wjag Posted November 2, 2013 Report Posted November 2, 2013 540 on Anaheim... Misery hits second gear. Quote
Assquatch Posted November 2, 2013 Report Posted November 2, 2013 Sabres usually play Anaheim tough. These aren't those Sabres. $1080 of my $1150 on the visitors from Disneyland. Quote
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted November 2, 2013 Author Report Posted November 2, 2013 Sabres usually play Anaheim tough. These aren't those Sabres. $1080 of my $1150 on the visitors from Disneyland. Yeah....some of the most intense games the past 5 years have been against the Ducks. Tyler Myers dropped the gloves his one and only time against them. Quote
nobody Posted November 2, 2013 Report Posted November 2, 2013 This is the 'point' game in their 4 game cycle. Don't know what to do with this one. Quote
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted November 2, 2013 Author Report Posted November 2, 2013 This is the 'point' game in their 4 game cycle. Don't know what to do with this one. Like a North Tonawanda junior 3 weeks after the prom.......something tells me this cycle might be a little bit late..... Quote
rakish Posted November 2, 2013 Report Posted November 2, 2013 (edited) Previous balance 805 Anaheim 180 A little better explanation on the charts. If you've been paying attention from the beginning, I started with goal charts (and shot charts), but the problem was that they go in a straight line down, so it's hard to tell the current momentum. So these charts adjust a bit for each opponent, so by the end of the chart, they will come to near zero. For example, looking at Buffalo's chart. They first play Detroit. The Buffalo season goals are -20, Detroit, -4, then you subtract out the actual score, and what you end up with is that Buffalo should have lost that game by about goal, so at the start of the Detroit game, about 1 is added to the Buffalo goals. Since Buffalo lost that 2-1, they start the Ottawa game near zero, and since, based on +- goals per game, they should have lost to Ottawa by about 1 goal, they are given a goal to start that game. The idea is to get goal scoring momentum, but adjust it to the level of the opponent. Playing well against a good team should count more than playing well against a bad team. That leaves the y axis as something like standard deviation, and the x axis as seconds played since start of season. Edited November 2, 2013 by RCentered Quote
Taro T Posted November 2, 2013 Report Posted November 2, 2013 Currently at $905. 2 units ($360) on Anaheim. Quote
Wyldnwoody44 Posted November 2, 2013 Report Posted November 2, 2013 Like a North Tonawanda junior 3 weeks after the prom.......something tells me this cycle might be a little bit late..... This made me laugh quite a bit 540 on Anaheim Quote
nobody Posted November 2, 2013 Report Posted November 2, 2013 (edited) Currently at 1605. 180 on the Orange County divers. Edited November 2, 2013 by nobody Quote
Wyldnwoody44 Posted November 3, 2013 Report Posted November 3, 2013 Up to 2425 after this debacle Quote
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