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Sabres "Fantasy Gambling" Contest


Ghost of Dwight Drane

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I'm generally a lurker in this thread and the board in general, but I'll throw in just to remain eligible. When I first read the thread I was going to bet one unit on the Sabres opponent each game which would have had me sitting pretty at this point but since I never placed any bets, I'm at $1,000 and I'd actually like to put $100 on the Sabres to win since the Rangers seem to have as much trouble scoring as we do.

I figured this out today. You would have $1905 if you had bet one unit against the Sabres in every game to this point.

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I figured this out today. You would have $1905 if you had bet one unit against the Sabres in every game to this point.

 

#Blueprint

 

I'm having a hard time on this one.... Haven't missed a bet yet, but I may ponder this and make it a game time decision.... Two Crappy teams with a tough line

 

NY has the worst goal differential in the league, yet they are 2-1 favorites over the Sabres........

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Previous balance 805

Anaheim 180

 

A little better explanation on the charts. If you've been paying attention from the beginning, I started with goal charts (and shot charts), but the problem was that they go in a straight line down, so it's hard to tell the current momentum. So these charts adjust a bit for each opponent, so by the end of the chart, they will come to near zero.

 

For example, looking at Buffalo's chart. They first play Detroit. The Buffalo season goals are -20, Detroit, -4, then you subtract out the actual score, and what you end up with is that Buffalo should have lost that game by about goal, so at the start of the Detroit game, about 1 is added to the Buffalo goals. Since Buffalo lost that 2-1, they start the Ottawa game near zero, and since, based on +- goals per game, they should have lost to Ottawa by about 1 goal, they are given a goal to start that game.

 

The idea is to get goal scoring momentum, but adjust it to the level of the opponent. Playing well against a good team should count more than playing well against a bad team.

 

That leaves the y axis as something like standard deviation, and the x axis as seconds played since start of season.

post-2405-0-94985800-1383407963_thumb.png

post-2405-0-98241300-1383407973_thumb.png

Edited by RCentered
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