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Sabres "Fantasy Gambling" Contest


Ghost of Dwight Drane

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So Ghost, how do hockey gambling odds work? I understand football where the spread makes relatively equivalent betting on each team, but here, as I see other's fantasy bets, all the money went toward Colorado. The Islander game all the money went one way, except yours.

 

Is my perception wrong and it's more balanced than I think, do the odds slide towards game time, or does the money often end on one side?

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So Ghost, how do hockey gambling odds work? I understand football where the spread makes relatively equivalent betting on each team, but here, as I see other's fantasy bets, all the money went toward Colorado. The Islander game all the money went one way, except yours.

 

Is my perception wrong and it's more balanced than I think, do the odds slide towards game time, or does the money often end on one side?

 

Here I will not move the line. Some of the games have shifted 20/30 dollars by puck drop, but I try and get an early line up so people have time.

 

Hockey is by far the LEAST bet on "major" sport. In football, it could take a few hundred thousand to even think about moving a line. In hockey, one guy can put 10K down at a place that would actually take it, and things would start moving.

 

Odds always slide towards game time in any sporting event. The "smart" money comes in first, and it comes in last.....

 

I think here there is a lot of betting against Buffalo because people follow them closely and are disgusted. The only reason I took Buffalo against NYI was because of the pattern. They lost 3...ticked up with a point on an OT loss. They lost 3...and I was playing that pattern. They won...then lost. Tonight if I bet, it would have been on Buffalo, because they can't keep the slope of their losses this steep all year. I thought they might catch a double bottom and at least slow the pace of their losing. Now it's literally all bets off. They blow with the likes of Dizzy Gillespie's cheeks.

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Using technicals is an interesting approach

 

It never occurred to me. Then carpandean started making charts relative to expected playoff barrier about 5 years ago or so, and I started to see patterns that would act much like stock price when charting. It didn't make sense at first as team performance should be effected by different variables such as opponent, injuries, etc.....and stock price can be effected by human emotion or pavlovian reaction to price and technicals. But it definitely had it's place, and the Sabres really seemed to follow technical patterns for some reason. I very rarely wager on hockey, but when I see an arbitrage between the odds and what I deem a favorable technical pattern, that is when I will jump in.

 

You see a lot more financial industry tools being used in sports betting these days. Cantor Fitzgerald developed a futures trading platform years ago that allows for live trading during games. I stay away from it because I know my philosophies and it would be danger city. The UK has allowed exchange betting for years, where the players make the markets. I may think Chicago has no shot at winning the cup and can "short" them to other bettors. It makes for better odds for players, but the vig is reduced dramatically for the host exchange. Hopes are that volume drives up to make up for it. The US has been fighting this for ages. Heck...it's getting so crazy now that I think you can buy credit default swaps on CJ Spiller! Seriously....

 

Here is the thread from last year...not much action in it. In years past there was more activity.

 

http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/21575-charts-2012-13-edition/#entry478106

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In case you missed it, ghost explained his thoughts on using technicals in hockey prediction a few days back. These are the 4 charts I came up with for today, since I don't see a consensus from the charts, I will stay at 950

 

The x axis indicates seconds starting from the beginning of the season. If I have some time, I will make useful divisions, like maybe by game

 

The y axis is plus and minus goals, or shots. The shot totals include goals, but not misses or blocks.

post-2405-0-36448200-1382558328_thumb.png

post-2405-0-98188100-1382558353_thumb.png

post-2405-0-31202100-1382558390_thumb.png

post-2405-0-14726800-1382558409_thumb.png

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At $780.

 

$175 on Baaahstan. :sick:

 

 

EDIT: Dwight, I need a ruling. I fat fingered my Avs bet via my phone and only put $120 on them instead of the intended $160. Did I 'make' $75 or $100? I'm good w/ whatever you decide. If it was only $75, then I am at $755.

Edited by Taro T
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This topic is OLD. A NEW topic should be started unless there is a VERY SPECIFIC REASON to revive this one.

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