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GDT: SEASON OPENER, Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings, 10/2/2013, 8:00pm

darksabre

By darksabre
in The Aud Club

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IKnowPhysics First Liner

IKnowPhysics

Posted
Posted

1st period was 1st NHL game (on the road against Detroit in the Joe) jitters for the young guys, especially Ristolainen. That probably had a big influence on his turnover that led to the goal. Second period, Sabres were playing giveaway hockey against a possession team. The way you battle through giveaway hockey against a possession team is to get more aggressive on the forecheck and turn up the skating energy. Rolston knew this, so that's what the Sabres did in the third period, and it worked somewhat.

 

Powerplay was bad, but besides the glaringly bad giveaway by Ehrhoff that led to the breakaway, I think Ehrhoff played pretty well. I foresee him earning his contract this season.

qwksndmonster All Star

qwksndmonster

Posted
Posted

I think he wants them to collapse on D, but these guys are not wired to do the hardbodied stuff. There was 1 point early in the 2nd where I swear to god the Sabres wire orange cones. All 5 guys were in the d-zone, not moving, and Detroit was weaving around with the puck and got 3 shots off. I don't think I've ever seen that before in my life. If the game was at FNC, they would have been booing.

Good call. I saw this a few times last night. Before Detroit even hit the Buffalo blue line all five Sabres were gliding backwards waiting to be schooled.

 

Abdelkader has been playing on that line for quite a while now. He was moved up last season and it clicks pretty well for them.

 

Which brings up an interesting point: So much of the Sabres team is new; it may take RR a while to figure the best line combinations.

I agree, but I mean did you see the way he spelled Abdelkader?

Bullwinkle III Top Prospect

Bullwinkle III

Posted
Posted

Ennis spent a year in the AHL before making the jump, so XB is right that this is his 5th pro season. You're right that this is his 4th NHL season. I do find it curious that you say most players break out in their 4th year...can you point me to any evidence of this?

 

I belong to five fantasy leagues, three for $. So knowing things like the 4th year breakout stat is important. My primary source is Dobber, who is widely recognized as a fantasy hockey authority. I have subscribed to his annual fantasy guide for years and this is what he has found:

 

"Roughly speaking, offensive players make big jumps in their production in years two through six. In the fourth year, 24

percent of players jump by 25 percent. Use this as a rough guide for a breakout year for players entering their second,

third, fourth, fifth, or sixth seasons: 16%, 19%, 24%, 21%, 14%…and go with 6% for seventh seasons and beyond. I note

the players entering their fourth year. Again – the difference is marginal, but every edge matters."

dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

Posted
Posted

Did you happen to see him coast back on D and his guy score the 1st goal as he was 3 feet behind him coasting? Or how about the 2nd goal where Risto did the trademark, stand 4 feet diagonally to your net while leaving the slot open and no center (Hodgson) or other d-man to disrupt a body? The 2nd wasn't so much Hodgson's fault as Risto and Stafford were collectively a dud.

 

I disagree. Myers' man scored the first goal on a very lucky tip. Myers had a stick on him and was blocking his way to the net.

It was a basketball pass and a perfectly deflected puck. No real fault of anyone's, certainly not Hodgson's,

 

The second one was mostly on Risto - panicky pass under pressure into a mess of Detroit forecheckers. He should have reversed the flow, or at least protected the puck.

 

I was specifically looking for Hodgson on the back check and thought he was moving his feet better and playing harder on the body. For most of the game we was playing against Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel freaking Datsyuk.

TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

Posted
Posted

I belong to five fantasy leagues, three for $. So knowing things like the 4th year breakout stat is important. My primary source is Dobber, who is widely recognized as a fantasy hockey authority. I have subscribed to his annual fantasy guide for years and this is what he has found:

 

"Roughly speaking, offensive players make big jumps in their production in years two through six. In the fourth year, 24

percent of players jump by 25 percent. Use this as a rough guide for a breakout year for players entering their second,

third, fourth, fifth, or sixth seasons: 16%, 19%, 24%, 21%, 14%…and go with 6% for seventh seasons and beyond. I note

the players entering their fourth year. Again – the difference is marginal, but every edge matters."

 

Bolded the important parts--we're talking about marginal improvements from only 1/4 of players. While he is at the age where offensive players tend to peak, I don't think "peaking offensively" is synonymous with "breaking out", as to me at least, the latter depicts a greater-than-marginal increase from previous production.

wjag All Star

wjag

Posted
Posted

but last night looked like a combo of the worst of Lindy hockey AND RonRol hockey

 

I'm still trying to figure out what RonRol hockey is....

 

Good call. I saw this a few times last night. Before Detroit even hit the Buffalo blue line all five Sabres were gliding backwards waiting to be schooled.

 

 

I agree, but I mean did you see the way he spelled Abdelkader?

 

I winged it.. I fixed it... Sheesh That's not a name that just rolls off the keyboard the first time.

MattPie All Star

MattPie

Posted
Posted

Ville Leino mad it 1 game... outstanding... :wallbash:

 

Bill Hoppe ‏@BillHoppeNHL 54s

Johan Larsson moves in to play center, Tyler Ennis to wing. Ville Leino out indefinitely. #Sabres

 

It is like sabres fans asked for a miracle and were granted the Leino injury

 

Well, we'll see some good evidence towards the Ennis center or wing debate.

 

Ville Leino = Tim Connolly 2.0

 

Seems like it. Sad too, I wanted the guy to get a fair shot at proving his detractors wrong. Now I have to run off and see if I actually put "Leino will play 65 games" in my prediction post. I certainly thought about putting that in there.

 

EDIT: Nope, but he's going to have to tear it up to get those 65 points and lead the Sabres. :wallbash:

nfreeman Hall of Famer

nfreeman

Posted
Posted

Weber is fine. kaleta is Kaleta. It was the action in front of the net that bothered me most. Nobody is going to be scared to camp out or step in the slot with this group. The 2nd goal Risto reminded me of Sekera. It's his first game, so I'm not going to shred him, but last night looked like a combo of the worst of Lindy hockey AND RonRol hockey in their own end. At least the Sabres goal was what happens when you work. Flynn pressed, won a puck and Girgensons showed great instinct by just getting ANY shot off in a quick scramble. Out of your top 9 though, the only guys who WANT to play that sort of game are Ott, Girgensons and Flynn....and hopefully Foligno when he gets back.

 

If you go Alamo on the backend, you need to offset that with hardnosed play up front to create your chances. If you try to be perfect and pretty, you lose.

 

I guess I don't agree that they aren't hard enough on D. I liked what I saw last night in that regard.

 

I completely agree that they need to play a harder forechecking game. I think Hodgson-Vanek-Foligno and Larsson-Ennis-Stafford (or, preferably, Larsson-Ennis-Ott) will be a big improvement over Hodgson-Vanek-Stafford and Ennis-Ott-Leino.

 

I disagree. Myers' man scored the first goal on a very lucky tip. Myers had a stick on him and was blocking his way to the net.

It was a basketball pass and a perfectly deflected puck. No real fault of anyone's, certainly not Hodgson's,

 

The second one was mostly on Risto - panicky pass under pressure into a mess of Detroit forecheckers. He should have reversed the flow, or at least protected the puck.

 

I was specifically looking for Hodgson on the back check and thought he was moving his feet better and playing harder on the body. For most of the game we was playing against Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel freaking Datsyuk.

 

I agree with all of this. The first goal was a pretty fluky play, while the 2nd was a turnover on the boards by a rookie and then a great play from a future HOF'er -- not a lazy backcheck.

 

Buffalo Sabres ‏@BuffaloSabres 1m

Rolston: Johan Larsson (@JohanLarre) will be in the lineup for the #Sabres tomorrow.

Leino. Broken rib. Out indefinitely

Ville Leino mad it 1 game... outstanding... :wallbash:

 

Bill Hoppe ‏@BillHoppeNHL 54s

Johan Larsson moves in to play center, Tyler Ennis to wing. Ville Leino out indefinitely. #Sabres

 

It is like sabres fans asked for a miracle and were granted the Leino injury

Ville Leino = Tim Connolly 2.0

 

TC gave us quite a bit more before he fell off the table than Leino has. Leino has been a complete washout.

apuszczalowski First Liner

apuszczalowski

Posted
Posted

Basically, this game was what I expected.

- Miller played like Miller, held them in the game so they had a chance

- Defence was unspectacular but wasn't a total liability

- Offence was non-existent w/ only 20 shots on Howard

- They threw some hits but still weren't anything to fear physically while letting the other team have their way with Miller near the net

 

The Redwings made this game look like men playing against Boys at most times

 

But this is whats expected for the Sabres this season, young players will show signs/flashes of what they could become and it may lead to some wins, Miller will hold them in games so they have a chance, and they will lose more games then they win all while giving the fan base "hope" that theres a brighter future out there for the team

 

Seems like after the Wings scored you could almost see Miller mouthing "Only 81 more to go........."

TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

Posted
Posted

I completely agree that they need to play a harder forechecking game. I think Hodgson-Vanek-Foligno and Larsson-Ennis-Stafford (or, preferably, Larsson-Ennis-Ott) will be a big improvement over Hodgson-Vanek-Stafford and Ennis-Ott-Leino.

 

I think I do a double-take every time you post line combos because of your C-LW-RW approach. Every single time :lol:

nfreeman Hall of Famer

nfreeman

Posted
Posted

I think I do a double-take every time you post line combos because of your C-LW-RW approach. Every single time :lol:

 

I do this because I think coaches usually talk about lines as the center's line -- e.g. "Hodgson's line."

 

I also don't stick to C-LW-RW -- it's just C followed by the wingers in random order.

Bullwinkle III Top Prospect

Bullwinkle III

Posted
Posted

Bolded the important parts--we're talking about marginal improvements from only 1/4 of players. While he is at the age where offensive players tend to peak, I don't think "peaking offensively" is synonymous with "breaking out", as to me at least, the latter depicts a greater-than-marginal increase from previous production.

 

True. But if a player is going to break out, the probability of it happening is in years 3-5, with 4 holding a slight lead. If you look at the top players of today, you will find the break out year - in most cases - happens within that span.

X. Benedict All Star

X. Benedict

Posted
Posted

Slight correction, this is Ennis' fourth season, the year most NHLers break out - if they break out at all.

 

 

This is Ennis' 5th professional season....... AHL players are pros. I should have been more precise.

  • 2009-10 Portland Pirates AHL 69 23 42 65 12 -- -- -- -- --
    2009-10 Buffalo Sabres NHL 10 3 6 9 6 6 1 3 4 0
    2010-11 Buffalo Sabres NHL 82 20 29 49 30 7 2 2 4 4
    2011-12 Buffalo Sabres NHL 48 15 19 34 14 -- -- -- -- --
    2012-13 Buffalo Sabres NHL 47 10 21 31 16 -- -- -- -- --
    2013-14 Buffalo Sabres NHL 1 0 0 0 0

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