Prediction time: opening night lineup

[inkman]

I feel like I just took a huge bong hit, waiting to exhale

[SwampD]

oh I forgot, God was in the room.

Next time, just say "and send _____ down to develop more". That way, the eligibility nazis will leave you alone.

[That Aud Smell]

I try to keep people posted on things they might not see, like moving Ennis to wing will be bad.

 

I'm with Ink. I think. I understood only a portion of your post. I don't have a mind for statistics -- I just don't.

 

I do, however, feel in my soul that Ennis is better off at wing. Do the numbers preclude that as a good outcome?

[LGR4GM]

oh I forgot, God was in the room.

who cares. details details.

Fine i will address your actual post...

 

Larsson is the 3rd line center. Girgensons may make the team but I would bet it is at wing. Tropp - Grigorenko - Armia will never be your 4th line. It seems the Sabres have moved Leino to RW and I remember some audio of him saying he prefers that. I am all for trading stafford but I don't think ennis ever goes back to center.

[rakish]

[/size]

 

I'm with Ink. I think. I understood only a portion of your post. I don't have a mind for statistics -- I just don't.

 

I do, however, feel in my soul that Ennis is better off at wing. Do the numbers preclude that as a good outcome?

 

Everyone believes this, I might even believe this, I think it comes from watching Yvan Cournoyer as a child. Ennis has terrible numbers as a wing

 

Sorry to ruin your evening Ink

[That Aud Smell]

Sorry to ruin your evening Ink

 

I think you misunderstood his post. ;)

[LGR4GM]

So maybe not to start this season but I would guess easily by next our defense could be

Brayden McNabb 6'4" 206lbs - Rasumus Ristolianen 6'4" 210lbs

Nikita Zadorov 6'5" 230lbs - Tyler Myers 6'8" 230lbs

Ehrhoff 6'2" 203lbs - Mark Pysk 6'1" 194lbs

Mike Weber 6'2" 210

 

And they can all skate and pass the puck and half of them like to run sh!t over. Our defense is going to be big and mobile.

[bunomatic]

So maybe not to start this season but I would guess easily by next our defense could be

Brayden McNabb 6'4" 206lbs - Rasumus Ristolianen 6'4" 210lbs

Nikita Zadorov 6'5" 230lbs - Tyler Myers 6'8" 230lbs

Ehrhoff 6'2" 203lbs - Mark Pysk 6'1" 194lbs

Mike Weber 6'2" 210

 

And they can all skate and pass the puck and half of them like to run sh!t over. Our defense is going to be big and mobile.

 

This warms my heart :wub:

[TrueBlueGED]

1- People say this, but that's all I see. I read something like this

 

The writer concludes with this: What is interesting is I can use the Weka function CfsSubsetEval which tells me which features are contributing the most to the accuracy of the classifier. I am surprised to see it is: Home/Away location, Goals Against and Goal differential. These are not advanced statistics, they are the traditional statistics that are making the biggest difference on predicting of winning a single game. It should be reiterated that this is NOT me disproving the use of advanced statistics such as Fenwick Close but rather saying in predicting in the short term of a single game there is still value in these traditional statistics.

 

 

What he does is first proves that traditional statistics are making the biggest difference on prediction, then turns around and denies it, because it isn't what he believes, really crappy analysis.

 

2- I just want to note that using my framework Pominville saw the most difficult competition against opposing forwards, and against opposing defensemen. That Corsi people combine the two numbers is a weakness in the analysis because the two numbers mean totally different things.

 

3- So it seems that the worst forwards on the Sabres using your framework are

Stafford

Hecht

Porter

Grigo

Kaleta

Gerbe

Ott

 

So really, you are asking me to study up on a framework that has Steve Ott as the worst Sabre forward? So I can understand it better? Really? So those are the bottom 6 or so of the Corsi chart, if you go plus/minus, the valuation, off the top of my head, will look something like

 

Ott

Hecht

Flynn

Vanek

Kaleta

Gerbe

Grigo

Foligno

Hodgson

Ennis

Stafford

 

Now we could use a different framework, goals, and it would look like...

 

Vanek

Hodgson

Ennis

...

 

You get the point, the important thing is whether the framework captures the value of the player. Now I don't post a lot, I really doubt I have something to say to the people that see a lot more hockey than I do, I live in Virginia, last year I got the Caps and the NBC games. I listen to RJ a lot. I try to keep people posted on things they might not see, like moving Ennis to wing will be bad.

 

So the question is, which framework best captures the value of the players. I will ask the users who read this to tell me, just post, rakish (that's me), you are nuts, Steve Ott is the worst player on the Sabres, I watch them and I know. I might be wrong, I would like those who watch more to tell me.

 

Now if you chart team goal differential vs team points, you get a nice line. If you chart team shooting percentage vs team points, you get a slightly worse line, though the better teams do have better shooting. If you chart shot differential vs team points, you get a very sloppy chart. Sloppy enough to not base my analysis on shots.

 

4- I wrote the same thing in a post a couple months back. When Stafford plays well, he has a lot of 10' shots, when he plays poorly, he has a lot of 15' shots. It has nothing to do with quantity.

 

Here's where we have a disconnect. Of course teams with higher goal differential have more points...but what exactly is that telling us? What's important from the perspective of analyzing a roster (and as a GM, assembling a roster), is what is causing the goal differential? Why does one team score 40 more than they allow, while another scores only 15 more? Possession statistics are highly related to scoring at both the aggregate and individual levels, so if you want to score more goals as a team while allowing fewer, one way to go about it is to get better possession players. On the flip side, +/- doesn't give us that type of leverage--you can't simply say "well we want to score more, let's go out and get more + players". Why doesn't it work? Because +/- is neither a consistent nor reliable predictor of future performance at the individual level, even if at the aggregate level yes teams that score more than they're scored against will be better off.

 

The top players in the game will all tend to be + players and the worst players in the game will tend to be - players, but we really don't need numbers to differentiate the best and the worst. What we need numbers for is to try and evaluate that 2nd and 3rd tier of talent, those middle players where it's not intuitively obvious which one is better than another. But in that class of players, +/- goes through wild fluctuations even when player scoring remains the same. Did said player suddenly forget how to play defense? Maybe, but I think a much more likely explanation is we're looking at an erroneous statistic to describe performance. Just looking at your lists here, you can see this play out. Who in their right mind thinks Kevin Porter is a better hockey player than Tyler Ennis? Ennis had his best offensive performance as a rookie when he was wing, yet you're looking to completely discredit that based on a bad stat. There's also some research to suggest that 30-60% of +/- are awarded improperly, but that's a whole other can of worms as it calls into question all stats other than goals (http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/05/13/just-how-horse--is-the-nhls-official-plus-minus-stat/)

 

Which brings me to: no one stat can determine the value of a player. Using +/-, Corsi, Fenwick...take your pick, but using one in an absolute vacuum to determine player value is fundamentally insane. This is why whenever Drane or someone else says "Corsi says Stafford is better than ____ what a bad stat!" I cringe. It's the biggest straw man out there, because that's not what the Corsi says. Corsi is a measure (and a good measure) of puck possession, which can indeed be one way in which a player has value....but it remains only one way in which a player has value, and may well obscure other weaknesses in that player's game.

 

Lastly, both shot quality and shot volume matter. They both drive goal scoring. Just as an example, Ovechkin regularly scores more goals than Crosby, yet has a lower career shooting percentage by almost 3 points. Why? He takes more shots.

[nfreeman]

Larsson looks like he's making a strong move toward making the team -- RR said he was arguably the Sabres' best forward in last night's game.

 

Also, Risto had over 19 min of ice time, and McNabb had over 18 min.

[LGR4GM]

Larsson looks like he's making a strong move toward making the team -- RR said he was arguably the Sabres' best forward in last night's game.

 

Also, Risto had over 19 min of ice time, and McNabb had over 18 min.

What do you make of Zadorov leading the team in ice time with 22:35?

[dudacek]

 

What do you make of Zadorov leading the team in ice time with 22:35?

Rolston doesn't want to piss him off?

[North Buffalo]

So based on my worst fears and best hope, it looks like Grigerenko doesn't have it and should spend time in the minors this year or be traded.

 

That being said, Larsson, Gergeson (sp), and Armia might work in his place so I now have some hope. The Sabres are stocked on D for years to come, it will only be a question of properly managing them. Still need to find a number 1 center but given his effort and skating... not... I am ready to through in the towel or at least send him to the minors. He is not ready for the big club. Wonder if the Sabres can put Stafford on waivers as well.

[nfreeman]

What do you make of Zadorov leading the team in ice time with 22:35?

Rolston doesn't want to piss him off?

 

Very nice.

 

I noticed the Russian Bear's minutes too. Without ever having seen him play a minute of ice time, here is my evaluation:

 

- He was partnered with Myers, who had an almost identical amount of ice time. Myers was playing well, and RR wants to get Myers as much time as possible to get his groove and confidence going, and keeping the same partner during the game contributes to that, so it made sense to just keep rolling with Zadorov.

 

- Zadorov was probably playing reasonably well, or at least well enough for a preseason game not to make RR want to rejigger the D pairings.

 

- Accordingly, I'm not ready to consider Zadorov a real contender to make the team yet. However, there are certainly open slots in the D group, and if Zadorov keeps getting 20+ minutes in the preseason games, we'll have to start considering the possibility.

 

 

So based on my worst fears and best hope, it looks like Grigerenko doesn't have it and should spend time in the minors this year or be traded.

 

That being said, Larsson, Gergeson (sp), and Armia might work in his place so I now have some hope. The Sabres are stocked on D for years to come, it will only be a question of properly managing them. Still need to find a number 1 center but given his effort and skating... not... I am ready to through in the towel or at least send him to the minors. He is not ready for the big club. Wonder if the Sabres can put Stafford on waivers as well.

 

You're gonna get in trouble...

[spndnchz]

So based on my worst fears and best hope, it looks like Grigerenko doesn't have it and should spend time in the minors this year or be traded.

 

That being said, Larsson, Gergeson (sp), and Armia might work in his place so I now have some hope. The Sabres are stocked on D for years to come, it will only be a question of properly managing them. Still need to find a number 1 center but given his effort and skating... not... I am ready to through in the towel or at least send him to the minors. He is not ready for the big club. Wonder if the Sabres can put Stafford on waivers as well.

 

Did you watch the game?

[TrueBlueGED]

Can we just ban the next person to suggest Grigorenko go to the minors? I don't mean to be an ass, but seriously, this is absurd.

[MattPie]

Can we just ban the next person to suggest Grigorenko go to the minors? I don't mean to be an ass, but seriously, this is absurd.

 

Send him to Rochester! ;-)

[spndnchz]

Send him to Rochester! ;-)

 

I hear they have cookies.

[SabresBillsFan]

Can we just ban the next person to suggest Grigorenko go to the minors? I don't mean to be an ass, but seriously, this is absurd.

 

We all know Grig's is young but we haven't seen enough of him to warrant him making this team. I think others have been better than Grig's and they probably will still

end up in Rochester. We will probably see Kevin Porter in the lineup who I'm not thrilled about at all. As much as people want Rist to make this squad I would much rather

have him play in Rochester and get big minutes there rather than making this team out of camp. I would really love to see Stafford moved but I don't think that's gonna happen

anytime soon.

 

This should be a very interesting thing to see what Buffalo does with Girgensons, Larsson, and Risto. Armia to me needs more time adjusting to nhl style of game in my opinion. Zadorov getting big minutes the last two games seems interesting to me. If he wasn't close I would think he would have been sent back to junior already but him getting more minutes than anyone on the team the last two games warrant's they must be seeing something in his game that the coaching staff likes.

Does Vanek see enough in what the future holds for him to decide to stay? What happens with Miller? From what little Hacket has done seems like he will be a solid goaltender.

Alot of questions going into this season. What are your thought's going into the season?

[TrueBlueGED]

We all know Grig's is young but we haven't seen enough of him to warrant making this team. I think others have been better than Grig's and they probably will still

end up in Rochester. We will probably see Kevin Porter in the lineup who I'm not thrilled about at all. As much as people want Rist to make this squad I would much rather

have him play in Rochester and get big minutes there rather than making this team out of camp. I would really love to see Stafford moved but I don't think that's gonna happen

anytime soon. I think Armia needs more time in the minor's getting accustomed to the NHL style game.

 

My comment had zero to do with where Grigs "should" be, and everything to do with where he can (or in this case, can't) be.

[LGR4GM]

I wonder if the are giving Zadorov all this time so when he does go back to juniors he will have had the most time playing for the Sabres possible. I wouldn't be surprised if he played a couple regular season games. He can play 10 before his contract starts. At the end of the day playing 25-30mins in london for the majority of the season is the best place for Zadorov this year. Next year, I am all for him being here and being an impact player.

[SabresBillsFan]

I wonder if the are giving Zadorov all this time so when he does go back to juniors he will have had the most time playing for the Sabres possible. I wouldn't be surprised if he played a couple regular season games. He can play 10 before his contract starts. At the end of the day playing 25-30mins in london for the majority of the season is the best place for Zadorov this year. Next year, I am all for him being here and being an impact player.

 

That's what I'm wondering as well. He skates really well for a big man and he seems like he's going to be a solid player for years to come

[LGR4GM]

I almost forgot that Daniel Catenacci is someone who could crack the Roster at some point this year. I don't expect him to make the team out of camp but I could realistically see him making the team later in the season. He is another guy on his way but not quite there.

[dudacek]

No game looks for Catenacci yet, but he's still with the big club, right?

 

Probably will get a shot this weekend.

[Stoner]

So we'll have Mikhail's Navy, Joel's Army, the Ehr Force and Cody's Coast Guard. How can we work the Marines in here?