Hodgson signs a six-year deal

[HopefulFuture]

I agree with this. Despite the fact that if the salary cap goes up and we can bury his contract or buy him out if need be, how confident are you that in six years we can say he was a steal at $4.25 per year?

 

He has a lot to prove.

 

It's a risk for sure. I'm hoping for a 2nd line center consistency and praying for a top line center blossoming type of cody. He'd be worth the money at 55 to 65 points as a 2nd line center at the very least I would think, no?

[spndnchz]

Cody's contract starts at 3.5 mill and increases a half mill per year to finish at 5.5

[IKnowPhysics]

Cody's contract starts at 3.0 mill and increases a half mill per year to finish at 5.5

 

Fixed by mathematical deduction.

[Bullwinkle III]

Think about this...I'm putting myself in Cody's shoes (skates).

 

If I truly believed that I had the potential to be a bonafide first line center in the NHL, I would take a bridge contract and then rake in the dough when I developed my potential in two to three years.

 

But if I considered myself only good enough for second line duty, I would take a long term contract for second line money, which is what Cody did.

 

So I ask the question: Do you think that Cody truly believes in his ability to evolve into a true first line center for this team? It doesn't appear so.

[Paul Kruse]

Finally. He's a sexy bastard.

[Weave]

Think about this...I'm putting myself in Cody's shoes (skates).

 

If I truly believed that I had the potential to be a bonafide first line center in the NHL, I would take a bridge contract and then rake in the dough when I developed my potential in two to three years.

 

But if I considered myself only good enough for second line duty, I would take a long term contract for second line money, which is what Cody did.

 

So I ask the question: Do you think that Cody truly believes in his ability to evolve into a true first line center for this team? It doesn't appear so.

 

He's getting guaranteed money for 6 years AND he's almost certainly making more per year in the 1st two years than he would have been making in a 2 year bridge contract.

 

Guaranteed money is a strong motivator.

 

But no, you're right, he's lacking confidence in his abilities. Never mind he pressured Van to trade him so he could go to a situation where he'd be the #1 center. :rolleyes:

[Huckleberry]

Still is a good deal no matter what anyone says.

[carpandean]

For what it's worth, Derek Roy's contract started at 8% of the salary cap and fell as the cap rose, finishing at just under 6% last year. Coho's starts 6.6% this year, but will likely be under 6% next year when the cap goes back over $70M.

 

The contract's $'s are fair for the term. A bit of risk, but not a terrible one. I hope that he is our #2 center because one of the "kids" develops into a true #1. One of Roy's biggest problem was that he was a #2 being asked to fill the #1 role too often. No more 2A/2B; give me #1/#2.

[deluca67]

Pretty balsy quoting advanced stats in your argument when advanced stats place many of the players you covet in the vastly overrated category and show little regard for things like hits and blocked shots and toughness.

Actually I didn't mention "advanced stats" at all. I find very little value in a systems based on shots or other formulas. I'll continue evaluating players as I always have and I'll continue to be right most of the time.

[LGR4GM]

Actually I didn't mention "advanced stats" at all. I find very little value in a systems based on shots or other formulas. I'll continue evaluating players as I always have and I'll continue to be right most of the time.

Bold statement... but what do you predict of young Mr. Hodgson going forward?

[That Aud Smell]

heard white on GR this morning and he posited what appears to be his take on why 6 years is too long a term. in essence: 4 years would have been a better choice because it would've provided the proper horizon/window to determine whether hodgson is going to be a very good (maybe even great) player (center (forward)). i.e., in 4 years, you'd be in a position to sign him to a long-term deal or cut bait.

 

i think that's the wrong view. to my eye (and i realize there are some who disagree), hodgson shows very strong signs of rounding into form as a top-6 forward and a guy who can play center in the top 6. with that alone, he's worth it at his current AAV. as for his next deal, and here i need help from a capologist, is there any reason that the sabres couldn't woo him into a rich extension after year 3 of this deal if, as white suggests, he starts to out-perform his deal?

[Lanny]

as for his next deal, and here i need help from a capologist, is there any reason that the sabres couldn't woo him into a rich extension after year 3 of this deal if, as white suggests, he starts to out-perform his deal?

He can't sign a new deal until he is in the last year of his current contract.

[LGR4GM]

heard white on GR this morning and he posited what appears to be his take on why 6 years is too long a term. in essence: 4 years would have been a better choice because it would've provided the proper horizon/window to determine whether hodgson is going to be a very good (maybe even great) player (center (forward)). i.e., in 4 years, you'd be in a position to sign him to a long-term deal or cut bait.

 

i think that's the wrong view. to my eye (and i realize there are some who disagree), hodgson shows very strong signs of rounding into form as a top-6 forward and a guy who can play center in the top 6. with that alone, he's worth it at his current AAV. as for his next deal, and here i need help from a capologist, is there any reason that the sabres couldn't woo him into a rich extension after year 3 of this deal if, as white suggests, he starts to out-perform his deal?

You can't renegotiate a contract mid contract. The sabers can't sign Cody to another deal til July 2018 which would be the final year of his current deal. Unless the new cba is different.

[Weave]

heard white on GR this morning and he posited what appears to be his take on why 6 years is too long a term. in essence: 4 years would have been a better choice because it would've provided the proper horizon/window to determine whether hodgson is going to be a very good (maybe even great) player (center (forward)). i.e., in 4 years, you'd be in a position to sign him to a long-term deal or cut bait.

 

i think that's the wrong view. to my eye (and i realize there are some who disagree), hodgson shows very strong signs of rounding into form as a top-6 forward and a guy who can play center in the top 6. with that alone, he's worth it at his current AAV. as for his next deal, and here i need help from a capologist, is there any reason that the sabres couldn't woo him into a rich extension after year 3 of this deal if, as white suggests, he starts to out-perform his deal?

 

The problem with a 4 year contract is, as I understand it from Darcy's comments, that it puts him at end of contract at age 27, ie. the age he hits full UFA. Can you say overpay? Sure you can.

[That Aud Smell]

He can't sign a new deal until he is in the last year of his current contract.

You can't renegotiate a contract mid contract. The sabers can't sign Cody to another deal til July 2018 which would be the final year of his current deal. Unless the new cba is different.

 

fair enough. thanks.

 

well, then i still think white's missing the value in gobbling up ~2 years of a potentially great player in his prime for very reasonable money. when the time comes for a new deal, if he's a great player, you figure out a way to sign him.

[darksabre]

 

 

fair enough. thanks.

 

well, then i still think white's missing the value in gobbling up ~2 years of a potentially great player in his prime for very reasonable money. when the time comes for a new deal, if he's a great player, you figure out a way to sign him.

 

I'm Jeremy White's defense, Jeremy White isn't very smart.

[That Aud Smell]

I'm Jeremy White's defense, Jeremy White isn't very smart.

 

i hear that a lot. i'm not so sure. i think he actually believes a fraction (not saying how small or large) of what he says on-air. IMO, he's very good at his job (not that it's a job/role that i particularly like).

[darksabre]

 

 

i hear that a lot. i'm not so sure. i think he actually believes a fraction (not saying how small or large) of what he says on-air. IMO, he's very good at his job (not that it's a job/role that i particularly like).

 

Jeremy, like many Buffalo sports radio personalities, frequently substitutes belief for logic. There's a reason he gets mad when people dispute him. He fails to rationalize other lines of thinking.

[nfreeman]

FWIW, I think White frequently makes pretty good points. I will say that when I hear him and Jerry Sullivan bickering, I find it pretty much unbearable and I stop listening.

[Lanny]

fair enough. thanks.

 

well, then i still think white's missing the value in gobbling up ~2 years of a potentially great player in his prime for very reasonable money. when the time comes for a new deal, if he's a great player, you figure out a way to sign him.

I think there's some logic to what he's saying. The risk isn't worth the reward, because historically these contracts don't payoff. Also, with Pegula's will to pay for players, if he proves to be worth a large contract after 4 years, they can just give it to him.

[TrueBlueGED]

 

Actually I didn't mention "advanced stats" at all. I find very little value in a systems based on shots or other formulas. I'll continue evaluating players as I always have and I'll continue to be right most of the time.

 

Jeremy Roenick is on Sabrespace. Who knew?

[apuszczalowski]

He's getting guaranteed money for 6 years AND he's almost certainly making more per year in the 1st two years than he would have been making in a 2 year bridge contract.

 

Guaranteed money is a strong motivator.

 

But no, you're right, he's lacking confidence in his abilities. Never mind he pressured Van to trade him so he could go to a situation where he'd be the #1 center. :rolleyes:

how do you kow this? While i agree that taking the guaranteed money would be the smart move, it also could say that he is not fully convinced he is going to become a 1st/2nd line C and would get a better deal in 2 years, so you take the guaranteed money know and secure yourself a spot for 6 years.

He wanted out of Vcancouver because there was no chance for him to move up until some of their top stars moved on. That could also say something about character too, If your truly that good, show it and theres a chance they move those other guys out to make room for you cause your outplaying them. Coming to Buffalo with their lack of quality C's on the roster can be viewed as taking the easy way out, no he gets the chance of being a 31 C when he needs to negotiate a contract without having to do anything to prove he deserves the spot or work his way into the position.

 

I'm not trying to say Cody is one way or the other, or that he is/won't be good, I'm just playing devils advocate here and can see both sides of this discussion

[darksabre]

Jeremy Roenick is on Sabrespace. Who knew?

 

:lol:

[That Aud Smell]

Jeremy, like many Buffalo sports radio personalities, frequently substitutes belief for logic. There's a reason he gets mad when people dispute him. He fails to rationalize other lines of thinking.

 

he certainly "sounds" mad when people dispute him. i sorta wonder whether that's all part of the shtick.

 

i'll say this: if he believes everything (or even 90% of what) he says on air and is actually getting agitated when he sounds agitated, then he's one of the larger tools in town.

 

I think there's some logic to what he's saying. The risk isn't worth the reward, because historically these contracts don't payoff. Also, with Pegula's will to pay for players, if he proves to be worth a large contract after 4 years, they can just give it to him.

 

i think there is too. i take his point. i just think that there is value as well in consuming 2 (is it 2?) UFA years of a guy at that point in his career -- you have to pay to do that and regier made a decision that it was worth the risk to do so.

 

play it out hypothetically, if at the start of year 4 in a 4-year deal, hodgson is an undisputed top-6 (#2, whatever) center, what is the going rate in 2016, 2017 for such a player? and how does the need to pay that money affect the team's ability to re-sign other players or add other pieces? it's entirely defensible for the GM to say that he likes the idea of having that top-6 center playing at an AAV discount at the tail end of a 6-year deal, thus giving that GM much more flexibility on who the other personnel on the team are. it sorta sounds like he's trending toward the boston-balanced model where you have good-to-great players up and down the roster.

 

the matter of regier being the one to make such decisions is an entirely different debate.

[Weave]

how do you kow this? While i agree that taking the guaranteed money would be the smart move, it also could say that he is not fully convinced he is going to become a 1st/2nd line C and would get a better deal in 2 years, so you take the guaranteed money know and secure yourself a spot for 6 years.

He wanted out of Vcancouver because there was no chance for him to move up until some of their top stars moved on. That could also say something about character too, If your truly that good, show it and theres a chance they move those other guys out to make room for you cause your outplaying them. Coming to Buffalo with their lack of quality C's on the roster can be viewed as taking the easy way out, no he gets the chance of being a 31 C when he needs to negotiate a contract without having to do anything to prove he deserves the spot or work his way into the position.

 

I'm not trying to say Cody is one way or the other, or that he is/won't be good, I'm just playing devils advocate here and can see both sides of this discussion

 

How do I know it? I don't. But I do know it is customary for teams to "buy" years of FA eligibility and it is pretty simple to surmise that this is the case here. Hodgson's agent is one of the most shrewd negotiators out there. You can bet his agent made damn sure that two years of FA eligibility were paid for by Buffalo.

 

As for the rest, obviously I don't know this either but IMO the idea that a guy who wanted out of Van to find a top 6 opportunity (and no he didn't cherry pick Buffalo and their no center sitaution so you can throw that line of thought out) is very highly unlikely to suddenly have a crisis of confidence that costs him potentially several million dollars. Frankly, the idea is worthy of ridicule.