Is the new core already here?

[darksabre]

I have noticed that recently some of you have started to feel that Armia's impact may not be as great as you may have believed. Admittedly, I have not followed him a real lot. What has led to the apparent downgrade in his impact?

 

Simply not seeing him play. If we get an opportunity to observe him then he might be back on that list in a heartbeat.

[Stoner]

None of those players are NHL centers which is what Briere and Drury were.

 

Not sure I understand your point. After Drury and Briere left, the Sabres needed to be in a semi-rebuild mode, adding to The Core. Using d4rk's theory, they should have been multiplying the effects of the previous five or six drafts. Did they? What makes anyone think they're going to get it right this time? (In fairness, I only looked at the first and second rounds. In lower rounds, Regier in 2009 did draft Marcus and Brayden. Two possible impact players in lower rounds in three drafts; not great.)

 

By the way, looking at a previous rebuilding phase, 2001-2005, you get three inarguable impact players in 12 picks, Roy, Pominville and Vanek. Stafford's in there as well. Sekera was a third round pick.

 

None of it is enough. There's no evidence this front office drafts well enough to justify any optimism moving forward.

 

It appeared as though we had our shot this year, and I truly believe DR was trying to tank it last season to get one of those guys, but of course the Sabres are the Sabres and it's just not meant to be.

 

Looking back, you wonder if things were going to absolutely implode had Ruff stayed. The mistake might have been firing him. Yikes. Of course I mean firing him in-season. :) Then again, his teams had a history of coming on at the end as well.

 

I think you're missing the point. All we're saying is that for most fans, "impact player" is probably close to a synonym for "high-end player"....whereas for a team, an impact player is simply somebody who is on an NHL roster and is contributing in some fashion. Taking this into account will greatly influence how "right" Black ends up being.

 

I'd say whether the Sabres are contenders in four years is how we should judge Black. He was talking about having 14 picks in the next four drafts. If you hit on/find impact players in, you're on the road to a Cup. I'm paraphrasing. I don't remember his exact words. He surely wasn't trying to tell the fans, hey, if we hit on half of these picks, we can sneak into the playoffs.

 

For a franchise that can't attract top free agents and perhaps has even abandoned the idea of trying, and can't swing big trades, the math just doesn't add up.

[TrueBlueGED]

I have noticed that recently some of you have started to feel that Armia's impact may not be as great as you may have believed. Admittedly, I have not followed him a real lot. What has led to the apparent downgrade in his impact?

 

For me, it's that he hasn't really addressed the problems he had years ago (obviously based on what I've read, since as Dark points out, we haven't seen him play a whole lot). Consistency and play away from the puck are still major issues for him. And while he's increased his scoring rates some, it certainly hasn't been a leap to suggest he's a lock to be a 1st line scorer in the NHL.

 

I'd say whether the Sabres are contenders in four years is how we should judge Black. He was talking about having 14 picks in the next four drafts. If you hit on/find impact players in, you're on the road to a Cup. I'm paraphrasing. I don't remember his exact words. He surely wasn't trying to tell the fans, hey, if we hit on half of these picks, we can sneak into the playoffs.

 

For a franchise that can't attract top free agents and perhaps has even abandoned the idea of trying, and can't swing big trades, the math just doesn't add up.

 

It seems to me you're looking to play a "gotcha" game with Black if you're inferring he meant "impact player" in the same vein as many fans think of impact players. I just don't think that's the case.

[sicknfla]

All one needs to do is look at Edmonton and see what our chances are of having a cup contender in 3 years. At best, we may get a new core. DR will still need to find the other 13-15 to play with them.

[deluca67]

All one needs to do is look at Edmonton and see what our chances are of having a cup contender in 3 years. At best, we may get a new core. DR will still need to find the other 13-15 to play with them.

You simply can't have a Cup contender in three years.

[MattPie]

You simply can't have a Cup contender in three years.

 

Um, didn't Pittsburgh do exactly that? They went from #1 pick to the SCF in 3, SCF winners in 4 years. Sure that's a perfect storm.

[sicknfla]

 

 

Um, didn't Pittsburgh do exactly that? They went from #1 pick to the SCF in 3, SCF winners in 4 years. Sure that's a perfect storm.

 

 

Yeah Crosby/Malkin was the perfect storm. Instant credibility and every FA wanted to be a part of it. Totally different scenario.

[Stoner]

It seems to me you're looking to play a "gotcha" game with Black if you're inferring he meant "impact player" in the same vein as many fans think of impact players. I just don't think that's the case.

When Ted sat down with John Vogl for two hours — http://www.buffalonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20130411/SPORTS/130419803 — he said the Sabres had to be right more often than wrong (that's more than half the time where I come from) on their upcoming first and second round picks. He envisioned a day when eight "impact" players from those drafts would be on the roster. The goal is to win the Cup in that timeframe, so I don't see how you think Ted is talking about run of the mill roster players. Words have to mean something. Everyone knows what an impact player is, more or less.

[TrueBlueGED]

When Ted sat down with John Vogl for two hours — http://www.buffalone...PORTS/130419803 — he said the Sabres had to be right more often than wrong (that's more than half the time where I come from) on their upcoming first and second round picks. He envisioned a day when eight "impact" players from those drafts would be on the roster. The goal is to win the Cup in that timeframe, so I don't see how you think Ted is talking about run of the mill roster players. Words have to mean something. Everyone knows what an impact player is, more or less.

 

But that's precisely my point: impact player isn't the same to everyone, particularly those in the business. Ted could easily have been talking about 1 first line player, a second line player, 2 3rd liners, a couple of fourths and two top-4 Dmen and been correct with the way scouts and whatnot use the term "impact player"...but if that's how the picks panned out, I think most fans would say that maybe 2 of those are actually impact players (the 1st line player and one of the Dmen if they were a top pairing guy).

 

Edit: Otherwise, you're inferring that he thinks we'll get a full top-6 forward group and two top pairing defensemen, and a few of those the star variety, because that's what most fans think of as impact players. That standard is absurd, and there's no way Black is dumb enough to expect that, let alone say it publicly.

[spndnchz]

Someone got the time to do this:

 

12 players on the recent Chicago Cup team were drafted by the Hawks.

 

Who were they and do you consider them all "impact" players.

[deluca67]

Um, didn't Pittsburgh do exactly that? They went from #1 pick to the SCF in 3, SCF winners in 4 years. Sure that's a perfect storm.

Yeah Crosby/Malkin was the perfect storm. Instant credibility and every FA wanted to be a part of it. Totally different scenario.

Pittsburgh/Chicago are exceptions to the rule. If teams are going to chase the quick success these teams had the first step is getting exceptional front office personnel to run the franchise.

[Claude_Verret]

When Ted sat down with John Vogl for two hours — http://www.buffalone...PORTS/130419803 — he said the Sabres had to be right more often than wrong (that's more than half the time where I come from) on their upcoming first and second round picks. He envisioned a day when eight "impact" players from those drafts would be on the roster. The goal is to win the Cup in that timeframe, so I don't see how you think Ted is talking about run of the mill roster players. Words have to mean something. Everyone knows what an impact player is, more or less.

 

If he meant impact in terms of top end guys, then he meant that out of those drafts the Sabres would need to fill out their top six along with two top 4 pairing D-men (or some such combination) = 8 impact players. If that's what he meant, then you're right, it's not happening. But I don't think that's what he meant.

 

edit: looks like Blue beat me to it at few posts up.

[Stoner]

But that's precisely my point: impact player isn't the same to everyone, particularly those in the business. Ted could easily have been talking about 1 first line player, a second line player, 2 3rd liners, a couple of fourths and two top-4 Dmen and been correct with the way scouts and whatnot use the term "impact player"...but if that's how the picks panned out, I think most fans would say that maybe 2 of those are actually impact players (the 1st line player and one of the Dmen if they were a top pairing guy).

 

Edit: Otherwise, you're inferring that he thinks we'll get a full top-6 forward group and two top pairing defensemen, and a few of those the star variety, because that's what most fans think of as impact players. That standard is absurd, and there's no way Black is dumb enough to expect that, let alone say it publicly.

 

You seem to want to look at this in a vacuum — as if we're not being told at the same time by Black that the franchise is trying to become a "championship machine" and that they've pivoted and are trying a different way of getting there. "We need to hit on…" Why do they need to do this if the goal isn't getting real impact players? Using your definition of impact player, you can get them anywhere, anytime. You don't have to wait six years for one to develop. Lower-rung players are everywhere.

[rakish]

Someone got the time to do this:

 

12 players on the recent Chicago Cup team were drafted by the Hawks.

 

Who were they and do you consider them all "impact" players.

 

2002 Duncan Keith 54

2003 Brent Seabrook 14

2004 Dave Bolland 32

2004 Bryan Bickell 41

2005 Niklas Hjalmarsson 108

2006 Jonathan Toews 3

2007 Patrick Kane 1

2008 Shawn LaLonde 68

2009 Brandon Pirri 59

2009 Marcus Kruger 149

2011 Brandon Saad 43

2011 Andrew Shaw 139

 

Impact? 6

Additionally, they passed on Myers.

[nfreeman]

There's no evidence this front office drafts well enough to justify any optimism moving forward.

 

I agree completely. IMHO there is zero evidence to support the meme that DR drafts well. Is he above average in drafting guys who are good enough to stick in the NHL? Probably. But so effing what?

[Weave]

You seem to want to look at this in a vacuum — as if we're not being told at the same time by Black that the franchise is trying to become a "championship machine" and that they've pivoted and are trying a different way of getting there. "We need to hit on…" Why do they need to do this if the goal isn't getting real impact players? Using your definition of impact player, you can get them anywhere, anytime. You don't have to wait six years for one to develop. Lower-rung players are everywhere.

 

See, when I read "we need to hit on", I get out of it we need to have these guys become what they are projected to be. Most picks from middle of 1st through the 2nd are not projected to be top 6/ top 4 guys. I think you are reaching.

[Hoss]

2002 Duncan Keith 54

2003 Brent Seabrook 14

2004 Dave Bolland 32

2004 Bryan Bickell 41

2005 Niklas Hjalmarsson 108

2006 Jonathan Toews 3

2007 Patrick Kane 1

2008 Shawn LaLonde 68

2009 Brandon Pirri 59

2009 Marcus Kruger 149

2011 Brandon Saad 43

2011 Andrew Shaw 139

 

Impact? 6

Additionally, they passed on Myers.

 

Shaw, Kane, Toews, Hjalmersson, Keith, Seabrook, Bolland, Bickell. That's eight.

[darksabre]

 

 

See, when I read "we need to hit on", I get out of it we need to have these guys become what they are projected to be. Most picks from middle of 1st through the 2nd are not projected to be top 6/ top 4 guys. I think you are reaching.

 

+1

[rakish]

Shaw, Kane, Toews, Hjalmersson, Keith, Seabrook, Bolland, Bickell. That's eight.

 

Define 'Impact'

[bunomatic]

Define 'Impact'

 

Name on cup

[Trettioåtta]

Define 'Impact'

 

Therein lies the debate. Shaw, for example, played fantastically in the playoffs but he was not impact in the sense of scoring a ton or shutting down the other team's top players. But he definitely impacted the game by throwing the opposing team off their game and playing hurt etc.

[CheckingLine]

JT Compher, should be on your list.

[Stoner]

See, when I read "we need to hit on", I get out of it we need to have these guys become what they are projected to be. Most picks from middle of 1st through the 2nd are not projected to be top 6/ top 4 guys. I think you are reaching.

 

Maybe I'm reaching. I'd have to go back and listen to Ted on WGR again, and it's too big a pain to find those clips. I'm pretty sure he made the comment twice (and once to the News). Something like — Howard: Hey Ted. Fans around here are tired of waiting for a Cup. What's the plan? Ted: We tried it one way and it didn't work. Now we're going to pivot. We've got 14 first and second round picks in the next four years. We need to be right more than we're wrong. If we do, we'll have eight impact players.

 

Complete the thought. And we'll be in a position to win a Cup? I think that's what he's feeding the fan base. Not — "And we'll be right back in playoff contention." If that's the real plan, then those eight players better be terrific.

[...]

What has Black done to earn the Parsing Pass? If he were talking to me directly, and used the phrase "impact player" (and I heard that interview on GR, so PA is not reaching IMHO) it would immediately conjure up what bunomatic said "dude whose name WILL be on the Cup".

 

Why should I be expected to parse the phrase differently because I heard it on the radio AND Ted Black said it? That makes no sense at all.

[Andrew Amerk]

 

 

Not a chance, Mr. Snuggs has at least 5 pounds on your cat and his nameplate would be a top 5 seller.

 

Mr. Snuggs might have 5 pounds on my cat, but my cat is the heart-and-soul type that the fans would really rally around.

 

Quick reflexes, and he isn't afraid to get dirty in the box. He may be neutered, but he still has balls.