Place Your Bets! (Vanek, Miller trade edition)

[Robviously]

no goalie can put up venizia numbers playing behind the Sabres defense .. So you can trade all the Enroth vs Miller posts you like , It does not really matter.

 

Miller is an established starting goaltender in the NHL. Enroth is not. Miller starts as long as he is here and healthy. Enoth is the backup. Fact of life.

 

Does anybody know how many starting goaltenders in the NHL are the same size or smaller than Enroth? It is hard enough to get a chance to play in the NHL for a starting goaltender especially if you are a gifted smallish net minder.. It takes a great deal of luck and skill to get where Enroth is now.. I hope when he gets his chance it is not squandered playing behind a the Sabres quality defense

 

The number one killer of NHL quality goalteners, career path wise, is bad defenses.

Miller is certainly the better option if we're trying to win this year.

 

But he's 33 years old and we're not trying to win this year. We should trade him. And when we do, I'll wish him the best.

[TrueBlueGED]

I am convinced that the "Miller Is Average" debate will still be raging on 10 years after he's gone.

 

I dunno, maybe by then your average fan will have learned the value of even strength save percentage over cumulative save percentage.

[JJFIVEOH]

I dunno, maybe by then your average fan will have learned the value of even strength save percentage over cumulative save percentage.

 

Please, explain.

[Ross Rhea]

Please, explain.

 

He can't because it's a old tired stupid excuse to try and justify Millers average numbers.

 

I think the Miller fans have become the absolute best at lame excuses.

[LabattBlue]

Not sure I want Miller around when he comes back from the Olympics feeling sorry for himself because Quick got all the starts.

^^^ This! :rolleyes:

[qwksndmonster]

He can't because it's a old tired stupid excuse to try and justify Millers average numbers.

 

I think the Miller fans have become the absolute best at lame excuses.

Is this where we're at now? Bills message board quality posts?

 

I have never heard a lamer excuse than calling advanced statistics a lame excuse.

[Hoss]

no goalie can put up venizia numbers playing behind the Sabres defense .. So you can trade all the Enroth vs Miller posts you like , It does not really matter.

 

Miller is an established starting goaltender in the NHL. Enroth is not. Miller starts as long as he is here and healthy. Enoth is the backup. Fact of life.

 

Does anybody know how many starting goaltenders in the NHL are the same size or smaller than Enroth? It is hard enough to get a chance to play in the NHL for a starting goaltender especially if you are a gifted net minder under 6 feet tall.. It takes a great deal of luck and skill to get where Enroth is now.. I hope that when he gets his chance it is not squandered by playing behind a Sabres quality defense.

 

The number one killer of NHL quality goalteners, career path wise, is bad defense.

 

Haven't really seen anybody sane saying that Enroth should start even if Miller is here. But Miller shouldn't be here... Soooooo. I don't believe that Enroth is the future in our net, but I KNOW Miller isn't. He's getting worse as he ages, and I'm pretty sure he's not Benjamin Button.

[Hoss]

Is this where we're at now? Bills message board quality posts?

 

I have never heard a lamer excuse than calling advanced statistics a lame excuse.

 

The only issue I have with advanced statistics defending a bad/average player is that it tells you what he MIGHT do in a different situation. Meaning that this player isn't good in his current situation, which is what matters to Buffalo.

 

(Well they say a lot more than that, but in this situation that appears to be the way they're being used).

[JJFIVEOH]

The issue I have with goaltenders and advanced stats is that they are in the game for a full 60 minutes. Whether you're better even strength, or on the power play, you're still comparing yourself to the other goaltender with the same team in front of you; so all that matters is overall save percentage. When it comes to forwards, you can use advanced stats to determine which forwards are better in certain situations, it just doesn't apply to goaltenders.

[TrueBlueGED]

Please, explain.

 

I feel like we've had this conversation before. Special teams save percentages is mostly lucky based and has no predictive power. A goaltender's SHSV% from year to year had huge fluctuations. Part of this is because of the small yearly sample size of PK shots faced. Even strength numbers have the advantage of a huge sample size, which eliminates most of the noise you get in short handed numbers. So including PK numbers introduces a lot of random variation, which is not an indication of player skill. It obscures the signal the data is trying to show us with a lot of crap that ultimately doesn't mean anything.

 

I hate posting from my phone. Typos galore.

[Paul Kruse]

I think they should trade miller and keep vanek. Vanek is just too skilled, wish he wouldnt get injured so much. I always though miller was overrated. Makes fantastic saves, then lets in total garbage. His stats are below average, too.

[Hoss]

I feel like we've had this conversation before. Special teams save percentages is mostly lucky based and has no predictive power. A goaltender's SHSV% from year to year had huge fluctuations. Part of this is because of the small yearly sample size of PK shots faced. Even strength numbers have the advantage of a huge sample size, which eliminates most of the noise you get in short handed numbers. So including PK numbers introduces a lot of random variation, which is not an indication of player skill. It obscures the signal the data is trying to show us with a lot of crap that ultimately doesn't mean anything.

 

I hate posting from my phone. Typos galore.

 

See, I don't see this as a reasonable approach. If a goalie gives up a ton of PK goals but is great in even-strength situations, does that mean he's great? No. It means he's not good when he really needs to be.

[Weave]

See, I don't see this as a reasonable approach. If a goalie gives up a ton of PK goals but is great in even-strength situations, does that mean he's great? No. It means he's not good when he really needs to be.

 

If you understand statistics you would see how reasonable that approach is.

 

Edit: That may have read more condescending than I wanted it to. Meaningful statistics require meaningful sample sizes. Without appropriate sample sizes statistic analysis is questionable at best, even simple statistical data like PKS%. And that is what TB is trying to convey.

[Hoss]

If you understand statistics you would see how reasonable that approach is.

 

Edit: That may have read more condescending than I wanted it to. Meaningful statistics require meaningful sample sizes. Without appropriate sample sizes statistic analysis is questionable at best, even simple statistical data like PKS%. And that is what TB is trying to convey.

 

All I'm saying is that you can't just take out a bad chunk of his stats and then look at what you have now as a fair judgement of his play. I do understand the stats and the argument, but I don't think this specific situation is a good time to use them.

[LaLaLaFontaine]

 

 

So you are saying Miller is only a really good goalie when it is an Olympic year and the rest of the time in between Olympic years he is only average. Yeah, not a guy I want on my team if he is only going to show up during Olympic years!

 

So you are saying the mentality and the physical tools are there but he isn't willing to use them unless it's an Olympic year. No thanks, give me a different guy. This ship has sailed as far as i'm concerned. Enroth needs to be the #1 no questions asked.

 

Basically i think the tools are here, but i believe that Miller needs some extra motivation and being the number one for his country at the olympics may be the right target for him.

 

I do not say we should or will have him here after the coming season, but i believe he can perform really well the next season.

[Weave]

 

 

All I'm saying is that you can't just take out a bad chunk of his stats and then look at what you have now as a fair judgement of his play. I do understand the stats and the argument, but I don't think this specific situation is a good time to use them.

 

You are not just taking a bad set of stats for Miller, you are taking a bad set of stats for every goalie. And givcen the different rates that individual teams see PK time you are sort of normalizing the data, ie. making it the same for every goalie.

[JJFIVEOH]

All I'm saying is that you can't just take out a bad chunk of his stats and then look at what you have now as a fair judgement of his play. I do understand the stats and the argument, but I don't think this specific situation is a good time to use them.

 

I agree with you 100%. You can't just sit here and say this guy really is that god because he has the best save percentage on Tuesdays, at home, when it's partly cloudy and wearing blue underwear. If one goaltender is better on the penalty kill than another, you can't just put that goaltender in for penalty kills. People can sugarcoat it all they want, fact still remains that Enroth has had a better save percentage over the last two years, and in comparison to the rest of the league Miller has been average since his Vezina.

 

Basically i think the tools are here, but i believe that Miller needs some extra motivation and being the number one for his country at the olympics may be the right target for him.

 

I do not say we should or will have him here after the coming season, but i believe he can perform really well the next season.

 

Who's to say he's going to start? If it were up to me Quick would be playing every game.

[Weave]

I agree with you 100%. You can't just sit here and say this guy really is that god because he has the best save percentage on Tuesdays, at home, when it's partly cloudy and wearing blue underwear. If one goaltender is better on the penalty kill than another, you can't just put that goaltender in for penalty kills. People can sugarcoat it all they want, fact still remains that Enroth has had a better save percentage over the last two years, and in comparison to the rest of the league Miller has been average since his Vezina.

 

 

 

Who's to say he's going to start? If it were up to me Quick would be playing every game.

 

Realistically, by using PK goalie stats you really are doing the equivalent of "best save percentage on Tuesdays, at home, when it's partly cloudy and wearing blue underwear". It is such a small subset of data to be totally unreliable. By focusing on even strength stats you are using the highest population of data, quite the opposite of what you are arguing against.

[skaught]

So what you're saying is that all of Millers goals came during pk's, so if you remove that stat he has a better save percentage than Enroth?

 

I would think the quality of the shot would be more important over how many people are on the ice, but then how do you determine the shot qualities?

 

I suppose when you're short handed you have a better chance of facing higher quality shots.

[Ross Rhea]

Basically i think the tools are here, but i believe that Miller needs some extra motivation and being the number one for his country at the olympics may be the right target for him.

 

I do not say we should or will have him here after the coming season, but i believe he can perform really well the next season.

 

I have no use for a player who is good once every 4 years. I want motivated players, playing for the fans, teammates and city every year. Not some guy who only feels us as fans are only worthy of his best every 4 years, and is only motivated because of the Olympics, not because he wants to win for the team he plays for and the city he represents but because of the Olympics. Next guy please!

[Weave]

So what you're saying is that all of Millers goals came during pk's, so if you remove that stat he has a better save percentage than Enroth?

 

I would think the quality of the shot would be more important over how many people are on the ice, but then how do you determine the shot qualities?

 

I suppose when you're short handed you have a better chance of facing higher quality shots.

 

Noone said that.

 

So outlandish an interpretation I don't know why I bothered responding. :doh:

[Ross Rhea]

All I'm saying is that you can't just take out a bad chunk of his stats and then look at what you have now as a fair judgement of his play. I do understand the stats and the argument, but I don't think this specific situation is a good time to use them.

 

Agreed, and the irony of all this is Enroth has had an overall better save % than Miller and a better even strength save % the last 2 years. Hmmm interesting, now what!

[JJFIVEOH]

Noone said that.

 

So outlandish an interpretation I don't know why I bothered responding. :doh:

 

No offense Weave, but that was the interpretation I got too. You can't just focus on the stats that favor your point. You can say the quality of the shot is important, the location of the shot, the situation (PP or PK). And you are correct. But when you're comparing two goaltenders on the same team, none of the advanced stats are really that relevant because both goaltenders have the same team in front of them, and over the course of so man games they will both face similar shots in terms of quality, etc.

 

Some advanced stats are important to evaluate, but I'm not convinced this recent fad of highly advanced stats is really meaningful. 100 people could sit here and create some imaginative advanced stats and eventually somebody will look smart because it will highlight a point they are trying to prove..... until they enter all the other players from around the league and they find out their version of advanced stats isn't any more meaningful than the rest. Some of the things that have been posted on here regarding advanced stats are just silly.

 

A goaltenders job is to stop pucks. Period. There are many aspects to their game, no doubt. But no matter what they do an how they do it, at the end of the day they need to stop pucks.

[Andrew Amerk]

 

I have never heard a lamer excuse than calling advanced statistics a lame excuse.

 

Lupul disagrees.

[Hoss]

Well even if you break it down to even strength save %... Miller was 25th this season (15th among starters)... Enroth was 10th in the league (7th in starters if you call him a starter).

 

So advanced statistics say Miller is average/below average even still...