Place Your Bets! (Vanek, Miller trade edition)

[TrueBlueGED]

In probably in the minority here, but if Pommers can fetch the value he did at last year's deadline, why should we expect less for either Miller or Vanek at that same time?

 

Sure, Pommers had another year on his deal, but these are clearly better players--either could easily be seen by multiple teams as the final piece needed for a cup run...and that's not factoring in the possibility of injuries to marquee players.

 

Just my 1 cent

 

I think you're significantly undervaluing an extra year on the contract. Potentially Pommer could be viewed as the final piece for two Cup runs, not just one. Plus the contribution over the course of the year to improve seeding. Remember, Pominville returned more than Iginla as a rental even though Iginla has the better pedigree and is more associated with the type of player you want in the playoffs.

 

Regarding Miller, I think his trade value is almost zero at the deadline. When was the last time a team traded for a starting goaltender at the deadline, let alone giving up a lot to get him?

[Lanny]

Remember, Pominville returned more than Iginla as a rental even though Iginla has the better pedigree and is more associated with the type of player you want in the playoffs.

This also had to do with limited no trade clause vs. full no trade clause.

[TrueBlueGED]

This also had to do with limited no trade clause vs. full no trade clause.

 

Good point. I guess a silver lining here is that Vanek has neither.

[deluca67]

I'm sorry but no. We have a top 5 prospect pool in the league, they have arguably the worst in the league, easily bottom three. When looking at NHL rosters, we still have better young players. They have an empty prospect pool and one of the oldest NHL rosters in the league.

 

New Jersey is where we were a few years ago. They are in no man's land. Do you remember when we had an older roster, no prospects, always underachieved, but could still fight for a playoff spot, weren't rebuilding, etc? That is where they are at. They have a roster than can compete for a 7th or 8th seed, but they aren't going to win the Stanley cup. The NHL draft is as much of a crapshoot than anything, so having more draft picks actually does matter. We are years ahead in the rebuilding process than them. I just don't get how you can say their team's future is in better shape than us.

The Devils future looks brighter than the Sabres because of the disparity in expertise of the two men running each franchise. The Devils have a GM willing to pull the trigger. The Devils made the Finals two seasons ago because of their willingness to sign Kovalchuk to a mega-contract. They have a situation where their #1 goalie is getting up there in age and they pull the trigger on a deal to ensure his replacement is in place. There is no doubt that when Lou Lamoriello evaluates his team and if he feels they need an impact forward, you know damn well he is going to go out and get one.

 

The Sabres on the other hand have what should be two big assets that should have brought in a nice return. What are the Sabres doing with Vanek and Miller? Letting them sit on the shelf depreciating.

 

The Devils are a marquee franchise in the NHL and the Sabres are mired in irrelevancy. The reason is the men that guide each franchise.

 

This also had to do with limited no trade clause vs. full no trade clause.

Good point. I guess a silver lining here is that Vanek has neither.

Pominville also had an additional year left on his contract which made him not a true rental. Vanek and Miller at this point are true rentals. For either to have max value at this point the Sabres will have to be approached by a team that not only feels either player puts them over the top, that franchise will also have to believe that signing either player to an extension is a mere formality. I don't know if any teams fit that criteria. There still should be enough value to draw a #1 in return, at this point the idea of multiple picks, prospects and/or NHL ready players should be off the table, IMO.

[K-9]

The Devils future looks brighter than the Sabres because of the disparity in expertise of the two men running each franchise. The Devils have a GM willing to pull the trigger. The Devils made the Finals two seasons ago because of their willingness to sign Kovalchuk to a mega-contract. They have a situation where their #1 goalie is getting up there in age and they pull the trigger on a deal to ensure his replacement is in place. There is no doubt that when Lou Lamoriello evaluates his team and if he feels they need an impact forward, you know damn well he is going to go out and get one.

 

The Sabres on the other hand have what should be two big assets that should have brought in a nice return. What are the Sabres doing with Vanek and Miller? Letting them sit on the shelf depreciating.

 

The Devils are a marquee franchise in the NHL and the Sabres are mired in irrelevancy. The reason is the men that guide each franchise.

 

As much as I'd like to argue this, there is simply no denying the truth of it. Wish it weren't so.

 

GO SABRES!!!

[Huckleberry]

yeah but the fact still remains, NJ has no bargaining chips except for Henrique or Larsson.

Even if they don't want Vanek, they'll need to do something fast, Elias ain't going to last forever either.

 

We got 15 of those despite Darcy running things.

[Ross Rhea]

yeah but the fact still remains, NJ has no bargaining chips except for Henrique or Larsson.

Even if they don't want Vanek, they'll need to do something fast, Elias ain't going to last forever either.

 

We got 15 of those despite Darcy running things.

 

So, it's still Darcy making the decisions.

Lou and the Devils will always be there, they always retool and never need to rebuild because they have a GM that has a clue. Huge difference between the Sabres and Devils organizations.

[thebandit27]

 

 

I think you're significantly undervaluing an extra year on the contract. Potentially Pommer could be viewed as the final piece for two Cup runs, not just one. Plus the contribution over the course of the year to improve seeding. Remember, Pominville returned more than Iginla as a rental even though Iginla has the better pedigree and is more associated with the type of player you want in the playoffs.

 

Regarding Miller, I think his trade value is almost zero at the deadline. When was the last time a team traded for a starting goaltender at the deadline, let alone giving up a lot to get him?

 

Igninla is also much older than Pominville, so I'm sure that played a part as well.

 

I get your POV; I guess my thought is that the fact that Vanek is a significantly better player would/could offset the extra contract yer when it comes to return value.

 

As for Miller, I agree it's tougher to move a goaltender at the deadline. I just happen to think that--in a league where more than 1/2 the teams make the postseason and a hot goalie can do more to win the cup than any other asset--the potential is there to strike a solid deal.

[TrueBlueGED]

Igninla is also much older than Pominville, so I'm sure that played a part as well.

 

I get your POV; I guess my thought is that the fact that Vanek is a significantly better player would/could offset the extra contract yer when it comes to return value.

 

As for Miller, I agree it's tougher to move a goaltender at the deadline. I just happen to think that--in a league where more than 1/2 the teams make the postseason and a hot goalie can do more to win the cup than any other asset--the potential is there to strike a solid deal.

 

I think Vanek is a significantly better offensive player. Overall, however, I think Pommer's two-way play mitigates a chunk of that offensive difference. We'll have to agree to disagree on Miller's deadline value.

[deluca67]

yeah but the fact still remains, NJ has no bargaining chips except for Henrique or Larsson.

Even if they don't want Vanek, they'll need to do something fast, Elias ain't going to last forever either.

 

We got 15 of those despite Darcy running things.

First of all, it's not a fact. The Devils have draft picks and prospects to deal if they choose to.

 

Right now the Sabres have a team that is destined for the 2014 NHL draft lottery. Picks and prospects are nice, at some point they need to start paying off in the NHL.

[dudacek]

I'm with Blue on the MIller situation.

Only way Miller has any value at the deadline is if he is closing out a repeat of the 2010 season.

Then a contender with a goalie question mark might step up. But mst contenders are going to have a solid goalie.

 

I still think the best chance for a trade is in November when a team like Philly, the Isles, the Oilers or the Blues is struggling and blaming their goalie.

[Bullwinkle III]

Vanek will be tradeable until the trading deadline. Certainly by that time there will be teams looking for a rental - but Vanek will be more than that since his abilities are greater than the usual rental player, Torres, Boyes, etc. Thus Darcy should get a reasonable return - not in active players, but in draft picks and prospects.

 

Miller is a different story. Barring goalie injuries or breakdowns, Miller will be untradeable and therefore he will go the way of Briere. This would be Darcy's nightmare and may even finalize in his firing.

 

Regarding the comparison of Lamiorello to Regier, I have to give kudos to Lamiorello for being a GM good enough to piece together a Stanley Cup team on the back of Brodeur. But Darcy comes out ahead if you look at the current situation. Certainly I'd rather be Buffalo than NJ if I had to choose between the teams. The future looks a lot brighter here.

[ROC Sabres]

Vanek will be tradeable until the trading deadline. Certainly by that time there will be teams looking for a rental - but Vanek will be more than that since his abilities are greater than the usual rental player, Torres, Boyes, etc. Thus Darcy should get a reasonable return - not in active players, but in draft picks and prospects.

 

Miller is a different story. Barring goalie injuries or breakdowns, Miller will be untradeable and therefore he will go the way of Briere. This would be Darcy's nightmare and may even finalize in his firing.

 

Regarding the comparison of Lamiorello to Regier, I have to give kudos to Lamiorello for being a GM good enough to piece together a Stanley Cup team on the back of Brodeur. But Darcy comes out ahead if you look at the current situation. Certainly I'd rather be Buffalo than NJ if I had to choose between the teams. The future looks a lot brighter here.

It does look brighter but that doesn't really mean anything. We are all hoping for the best. I'm sure there are/were players that have been drafted by DR that have the same NHL stats as Taro that we are/were high on. That's the big thing I think that sucks about the NHL. As important as the draft is, other than the top 5, maybe 10 picks in every draft, most players are not seen or heard of for ~5 years. In the NFL, most players are already bagging groceries by the time we get an idea if a prospect is ready for the NHL.

 

It's different for NJ because they basically built a team every year on the same principles. I feel like the Sabres continually try to play catch up with the exception of after the lockout.

[26CornerBlitz]

Steve Ott cannot be forgotten in this conversation. Despite stating that he'd like to be a Sabre for a good while, didn't sound like anything was in the works WRT a contract extension.

[Hoss]

Can somebody tell me the last time a worthwhile starting goaltender was dealt in-season?

 

Andy Moog back in 1997.

 

That's the last I can find. It just doesn't happen. The adjustment a goaltender has to make in the middle of a season just isn't worth the price of admission for teams. If Darcy waits until the deadline, he might as well just let Miller get to free agency.

 

Regarding Miller, I think his trade value is almost zero at the deadline. When was the last time a team traded for a starting goaltender at the deadline, let alone giving up a lot to get him?

 

Didn't see that somebody already asked this ha.

[JJFIVEOH]

Steve Ott cannot be forgotten in this conversation. Despite stating that he'd like to be a Sabre for a good while, didn't sound like anything was in the works WRT a contract extension.

 

Darcy said they were working on an extension the day Scott re-signed.

 

Edit: Actually, I don't know exactly when it was, but it has been mentioned by Darcy that he will be working on an extension and Ott's agent confirmed.

[LabattBlue]

I am tired of clicking on this thread to learn that DR is now back tracking. I am just going to wait for the "Vanek Traded..." or "Miller Traded..." threads.

[tom webster]

Can somebody tell me the last time a worthwhile starting goaltender was dealt in-season?

 

Andy Moog back in 1997.

 

That's the last I can find. It just doesn't happen. The adjustment a goaltender has to make in the middle of a season just isn't worth the price of admission for teams. If Darcy waits until the deadline, he might as well just let Miller get to free agency.

 

 

 

Didn't see that somebody already asked this ha.

 

Montreal traded Huet at the deadline when he was one of the top goalies in the league and they were one of the top teams in the East. Your point is till valid, just not factually correct

[Hoss]

 

 

Montreal traded Huet at the deadline when he was one of the top goalies in the league and they were one of the top teams in the East. Your point is till valid, just not factually correct

 

I didn't state anything as fact. I said that's the last time I could remember haha.

 

 

And if Huet is any lesson, we're in for a shitshow on this site once we get nothing for Miller. Huet was an all-star that year yet brought back just a second rounder...

 

(The similarities are also kind of interesting. The year before Huet's contract season he had a 2.81 GAA which Miller had last season. They both faced over 1200 shots and had save percentages within .001 of each other.)

 

So if we're looking for a recent comparable, it's a second rounder.

[Andrew Amerk]

From Wysh:

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/thomas-vanek-buffalo-sabres-suffering-155658428.html

[Hoss]

From Wysh:

 

http://sports.yahoo....-155658428.html

 

Is it just me, or is this terribly written? He says "one assumes/assumed" like five times. The word "one" has no place in journalism. They teach you not to say "you" or "we," but I don't think one is any better. Not when used so much.

 

Also, how is a one year deal ever to be considered "toxic?" I agree with some of what he says, but navigating through some of that was... fun.

[JJFIVEOH]

Is it just me, or is this terribly written? He says "one assumes/assumed" like five times. The word "one" has no place in journalism. They teach you not to say "you" or "we," but I don't think one is any better. Not when used so much.

 

Also, how is a one year deal ever to be considered "toxic?" I agree with some of what he says, but navigating through some of that was... fun.

 

Journalism is dead. Between the dumbing down of our education system, our reliance on texting and Twitter and our overall notorious American laziness, journalistic integrity is a dying breed. It's bad enough when you can't understand kids when they talk because they sound like they're reading from Twitter, and you can't understand what they write because everything is abbreviations; then you have the adults who are stooping down to that level. When I read a newspaper article or listen to network anchors it amazes me who ridiculous they sound. The words 'epic', 'literally' and 'amazing' probably accounts for 1/3 of their vocabulary. Some days when I'm not in the best of moods I'll turn the channel when I hear these imbeciles trying to speak, only to get to another channel that is just as bad. By the time the night is up, I'll have nothing else to watch because I've skipped through it all.

 

But, I digress. Rant off. :angel:

[Member Berries]

Looking at Jersey, since the 05 lockout, they have lost more important players in their org who walk free agents than I think we have (Refalski, Gionta, Gomez, Oduya, Parise, Clarkson, Martin) And now with Kovy walking away it's essentially like if Vanek were to do the same after we traded Pominville away. Except we've been smart when it comes to draft picks. I absolutely hate Regier just as much as most but take away Kovy from the devs and they're in trouble, take Vanek from us and we'd suck for a year or two but at least have a deep talent pool waiting. And picks in the future. Just a different POV. Im a devils fan as well and think Lou is a great gm, but in this instance he's $#it the bed, and looks worse than Darcy at the moment. Kind of off topic. Poin t being devs would be a prime front runner for Vanek but theyre so screwed I don't see them having pieces for a trade

[Huckleberry]

First of all, it's not a fact. The Devils have draft picks and prospects to deal if they choose to.

 

Right now the Sabres have a team that is destined for the 2014 NHL draft lottery. Picks and prospects are nice, at some point they need to start paying off in the NHL.

 

Fact is for the players they want they need a 1st round draft pick, they don't have one in 2014, maybe they can deal the 2015 one, but i wouldn't if i were them, cause they'll be at the same level as us.

2015 draf lotery that is.

[wjag]

I don't know what rock I crawled out from under, but I completely missed the Kovy retiring story. Could you imagine the reaction on here and in Buffalo if one of our star players, who they mortgaged the franchise to get, just upped and quit? Are they roasting LL on the Jersey boards?

 

Parise last year, Kovy this year. Can't be happy times in the Hoffa cemetery.