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Place Your Bets! (Vanek, Miller trade edition)

IKnowPhysics

By IKnowPhysics
in The Aud Club

Vanek/Miller Poll  

126 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Vanek be traded? When?

    • He won't be traded, he will be resigned by the Sabres.
      31
    • He'll be traded before the first round of the 2013 draft ends.
      15
    • He'll be traded after the first round of the 2013 draft ends but before the beginning of the 2013-14 regular season.
      10
    • He'll be traded after the beginning of the 2013-14 season but before the 2014 trade deadline.
      40
    • His rights will be traded after the 2014 trade deadline OR he won't be traded at all before he turns UFA.
      12

  2. 2. Will Miller be traded? When?

    • He won't be traded, he will be resigned by the Sabres.
      13
    • He'll be traded before the first round of the 2013 draft ends.
      40
    • He'll be traded after the first round of the 2013 draft ends but before the beginning of the 2013-14 regular season.
      20
    • He'll be traded after the beginning of the 2013-14 season but before the 2014 trade deadline.
      23
    • His rights will be traded after the 2014 trade deadline OR he won't be traded at all before he turns UFA.
      12

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LaLaLaFontaine Fourth Liner

LaLaLaFontaine

Posted
Posted

I'm not a Miller hater, I just think he's a has-been as a member of the Sabres. He might do well if traded to a good, balanced team but here he's been very inconsistent, certainly not an ace. Vanek still has something left in the tank and for sure, he's still a world class sniper. He must feel like the last man standing. I think he has indicated he wants nothing to do with a rebuild and that's what's happening here. Just about the only knock against him is his durability and endurance.

 

I have zero confidence that Regier will trade either of them...

Miller is not elite very often, but he is very consistent. He played many years on a good to very good level. This is not a given with goaltenders

 

 

 

 

Miller does not steal games.

Enroth has had better stats the past 2 seasons playing behind the same "crap Sabres D".

There is atleast 50 games of tape on Enroth and nobody was able to find his "holes" while he was winning gold at the world championships.

 

Enough with the Miller excuses and justifications for being average. I don't think his trade value is very high at all and Darcy is just figuring that out now and he doesn't know what to do.

 

Miller stole games for us, many games.

And he will steal more games for sure. He will in my opinion be a very good goaltender for whoever has a need for him. He is not cheap but he does have the potential for a Vezina season. Why? He showed it once before and he can show it again. Although the current stats from Rask are better, i think the risk with Miller is lower as signing Rask to 56 mill for eight years.

 

Whoever picks Miller up will in my opinion be an improved cup contender.

 

Dissertations and the odd Miller hater aside, I think a majority on here and around the league are going to have opinions that fall in a similar neighbourhood to Weave and Waldo and DStebb and Blue.

And that's why I find it hard to accept suggestions the market for Miller has dried up, or the crickets you hear about Vanek.

 

Unlike our team, there are plenty of teams out there actively trying to get better NOW.

 

If I have a tough, deep, balanced team like St. Louis Blues, I might look at the difference between Miller and Halak as the difference between a first-round knockout and a trip to the Stanley Cup final. I might look at Vanek as that clutch scorer that could put us over the top.

 

If I am an emerging team like the Islanders or the Oilers, I might look at Miller as that piece that gives the kids the rock they can lean on, the player that pushes us from potential to contender. Same with an underachieving team like the Caps.

 

If I am a solid Bluejackets or Predators team, I might look at Vanek as that scorer we so desperately need.

Hell, any team with Stanley Cup aspirations should have in interest in Vanek. Of course you would sacrifice your kids and picks in the hope a clutch scorer like that can put you over the top. Can you imagine Vanek with Datsyuk and Zetterberg?

 

Both these guys have five good years left, are solid citizens, are marketable, and are the types of people who are decent odds to resign with their new organization as long as they have some success and are a good fit.

I mean, if our franchise hadn't been run so ###### poorly the past few years, we would be talking about their contract extensions right now, not their trade value.

 

These are the types of guys you trade for, not away.

There has to be a market.

Not even Darcy can blow this.

Can he?

 

Thank you, great post!

JJFIVEOH All Star

JJFIVEOH

Posted
Posted

Holtby and Reimer had great seasons, and that is reflected in their GVT, so I don't see the issue. Unless it's a matter of "this stat doesn't mesh with my predispositions therefore it sucks" mentality at work.

 

Would you trade Miller for Holtby?

 

Didn't they have the same team in front of eachother? :unsure:

 

Miller: Mins 2302, SV% .915

Mins 3536, Sv% .916

 

Enroth: Mins 623, SV% .919

Mins 1399, SV% .917

 

Also saying for 2 years Enroth outplayed miller is kinda false. have a .001% better in saves is barely statistically relevant. i am sure one of our math posters could figure out what the difference in #of goals allowed would be but basically all we have is that last year Enroth was better than Miller while playing 1,679 less minutes. Hard to judge that.

 

In 2011-12 Enroth played a majority of the games when most of the team was hurt. You know, the losing streak that some people hold against Enroth. This past season Enorth played a majority of his games after BFLO traded away two of their veteran D-men. Yes, they both did play with the same team in front of them, but it could be argued that Enroth had a lesser team in front of him the last two years. If you're going to throw in minutes played, I could just as easily say that Enroth had 1,679 less minutes to improve his stats. It goes both ways. ;)

 

I'm not going to engage in Miller debate with people who don't like him no matter the circumstances.

I will rhetorically ask how many wins Enroth had during this time he was supposedly outplaying him.

 

Who had the healthier/more experienced teams in front of him, Enroth or Miller? The stats show Enroth had a better save percentage. If Vanek had another 40 goal season and the Sabres finish 13th, are you going to hold it against him because the Sabres couldn't win?

Weave Hall of Famer

Weave

Posted
Posted

Miller is about 10ish in my opinion so I guess that falls under top 10. I think it is more accurate to say he's in the 7-12 range.

 

And Vanek is just outside of elite. IMO elite represents players who make the players around him better. Vanek isn't that guy. I still think that puts Vanek solidly in the top 10 for wingers. Maybe even top 5 for LW, behind the likes of Ovie and Sedin.

 

I think Vanek just moved up one spot in the rankings. :P

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted

Henrique, Matteau, and a 2015 #1?

 

Matteau could be exactly what we need, but he's got such a ###### attitude. And I doubt the Devils will be dealing their 2015 first. Don't see them wanting to go three straight years without a first rounder.

 

While NJ makes a lot of sense as a fit for Vanek now, I don't think they have the assets to give up. They have a lot of defensive prospect, but we're loaded there. Then they have no firsts to trade anytime soon. Henrique would be a starting point, but will they give up a young forward when they don't have a lot of them?

 

Also, Vanek most likely wouldn't be interested in signing long-term there considering they're basically rebuilding.

TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

Posted
Posted

Would you trade Miller for Holtby?

 

Given age, contract status (I'm assuming Miller would like to go elsewhere as well), and my judgment that we're likely to see a several year rebuild at least...yes.

 

I, however, believe GVT is a useful tool, but am skeptical of it's fair application to goaltenders.

 

In a vacuum I'd agree, but I do think it's useful when placed in proper context.

IKnowPhysics First Liner

IKnowPhysics

Posted
  • Author
Posted

In a vacuum I'd agree, but I do think it's useful when placed in proper context.

 

Agreed. More specifically, I think it has possible usefulness when comparing goaltenders to each other, but more limited usefulness when comparing goaltenders to players. I'm not sure it's accurate or useful to use it to say things like "Giroux and Kessel are comparable to Miller for trade purposes" or "Jimmy Howard is better than Ovechkin and almost as good as Crosby," but more useful to say things like "Bobrovsky, Lundqvist, et al played their nuts off (GVTs 20+), whereas Miller (13.9) was measurably better than Lehtonen (12.0), but maybe didn't measure up to Corey Crawford" (15.4).

JJFIVEOH All Star

JJFIVEOH

Posted
Posted

Given age, contract status (I'm assuming Miller would like to go elsewhere as well), and my judgment that we're likely to see a several year rebuild at least...yes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

You're in a small minority. I don't think many people would trade Miller for Holtby straight up.

Andrew Amerk First Liner

Andrew Amerk

Posted
Posted

Vanek, Stafford, Larsson for Henrique and Larsson.

 

NJ gets Vanek at LW to replace Kovi. They get a prospect C/Wing to replace the loss of Henrique.

 

Buffalo gets an instant #1/2 C that everyone has been screaming for, gets rid of the cancer that is Stafford, and adds ANOTHER D, since apparently having 27 D-men isn't enough.

 

Kovi was going to get what, 11.5mil this season? The Vanek and Staff contracts equal that.

 

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted

Vanek, Stafford, Larsson for Henrique and Larsson.

 

NJ gets Vanek at LW to replace Kovi. They get a prospect C/Wing to replace the loss of Henrique.

 

Buffalo gets an instant #1/2 C that everyone has been screaming for, gets rid of the cancer that is Stafford, and adds ANOTHER D, since apparently having 27 D-men isn't enough.

 

Kovi was going to get what, 11.5mil this season? The Vanek and Staff contracts equal that.

 

We definitely could use another defensive prospect... And Vanek will love going to a near-rebuild situation.

Andrew Amerk First Liner

Andrew Amerk

Posted
Posted

 

 

We definitely could use another defensive prospect... And Vanek will love going to a near-rebuild situation.

 

Lou Lamoriello is QUITE a different GM than our beloved DR. Vanek might actually be happy to go there.

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted

Lou Lamoriello is QUITE a different GM than our beloved DR. Vanek might actually be happy to go there.

 

I just don't think that with the ownership questions and rebuild still going on he'd want to go there. And I also don't think we need to get anymore defensive prospects. We should be looking for a stable of forwards, not d. We already have Pysyk, McNabb, Ruhwedel, Risto, Zadorov and McCabe. I'd do Vanek for Henrique and a wing prospect straight up. No reason to give up Larsson.

Andrew Amerk First Liner

Andrew Amerk

Posted
Posted

 

 

I just don't think that with the ownership questions and rebuild still going on he'd want to go there. And I also don't think we need to get anymore defensive prospects. We should be looking for a stable of forwards, not d. We already have Pysyk, McNabb, Ruhwedel, Risto, Zadorov and McCabe. I'd do Vanek for Henrique and a wing prospect straight up. No reason to give up Larsson.

 

No. We don't need more D.

 

Obviously, I was speculating. Giving them Vanek fills the Kovi void, but taking Henrique just creates another hole for NJ. More would need to be done.

 

Plus, I'd just like to see Stafford gone, since we missed out on sending him to Edmonton.

 

Vanek, Ennis, McBain/Pysyk/McNabb for Henrique and Larsson?

Andrew Amerk First Liner

Andrew Amerk

Posted
Posted

We might not need more D, but why would you pass on an elite D prospect? It makes zero sense. It's not like our starting 6 is already locked up 3 years from now.

 

Doesn't even matter. DR probably doesn't even know what happened in NJ yet.

 

If he does, he's probably waiting for Lou to call, as if this is some "gotta wait 3 days" type ish.

Andrew Amerk First Liner

Andrew Amerk

Posted
Posted

Haha, the counter argument to Qwk's opinion: Amerk has a shady ###### for internet-dissing the GM.

 

This place.

 

edit: Haha. b0ner is sensored.

 

Did you just speculate on whether or not I have a "shady b0ner?"

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted

We might not need more D, but why would you pass on an elite D prospect? It makes zero sense. It's not like our starting 6 is already locked up 3 years from now.

 

It's not about passing on an elite D prospect. It's about getting forwards instead. It's not like I'm saying "meh, take Larsson out and I do the deal." I'm just saying it'd be a mistake to give up an extra forward prospect so we can acquire another d prospect.

Andrew Amerk First Liner

Andrew Amerk

Posted
Posted

 

 

It's not about passing on an elite D prospect. It's about getting forwards instead. It's not like I'm saying "meh, take Larsson out and I do the deal." I'm just saying it'd be a mistake to give up an extra forward prospect so we can acquire another d prospect.

 

Assuming most of them develop, the possibilities are scary:

 

Tyler Myers

Ristolainen

Adam Larsson

Zadorov

McCabe

Pysyk

McNabb

Ruhdy

JGD

 

4/9 of them HAVE to become top 4, right?

qwksndmonster All Star

qwksndmonster

Posted
Posted

It's not about passing on an elite D prospect. It's about getting forwards instead. It's not like I'm saying "meh, take Larsson out and I do the deal." I'm just saying it'd be a mistake to give up an extra forward prospect so we can acquire another d prospect.

You can always flip D prospects for F prospects. It's easier to find a partner when you don't have to worry about cap constraints and big contracts.

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted

Assuming most of them develop, the possibilities are scary:

 

Tyler Myers

Ristolainen

Adam Larsson

Zadorov

McCabe

Pysyk

McNabb

Ruhdy

JGD

 

4/9 of them HAVE to become top 4, right?

 

You'd hope so. But I also have really high hopes for JOHAN Larsson. So let's keep him in any deal.

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