Jump to content

Around the NHL - 2013-2014

LGR4GM

By LGR4GM
in The Aud Club

 Share

Recommended Posts

darksabre Hall of Famer

darksabre

Posted
Posted (edited)

Cool article on 538 about advanced stats and zone entry strategy:

 

http://fivethirtyeig...nced-stats-era/

 

 

Somewhere, Jessica Schmidt was watching. She has spent the last two seasons tracking each entry into the offensive zone with a spreadsheet open in front of her. A 26-year-old diehard hockey fan, she had read some articles I wrote about the Flyers’ zone entries in the 2011-12 season and the usefulness of zone entries in assessing a team’s performance. When the Flyers missed the playoffs in 2013, she wanted to know what had gone wrong and volunteered to try recording the zone entries herself.

 

Tracking by Schmidt and others has helped explain that a team’s entry into the offensive zone has a big impact on its shot differential. Carrying the puck into the offensive zone leads to more than twice as many shots and goals as a dump-and-chase play does, even after removing plays like odd-man rushes and dump-ins that are made just to buy time for a line change. These results have even made an impact on strategy.

 

The guy who wrote that article, Eric Tulsky, is a consultant for teams like Nashville and runs a blog over on sbnation about stats.

 

http://www.sbnation.com/outnumbered

Edited by d4rksabre
Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted

who're the people around here with the man-crush on evander kane?

 

http://www.cbssports...healthy-scratch

 

He's a 30-goal scorer who could be a 40-goal scorer if he wasn't so concerned with everything but hockey. Frustrating. I'd take him on a team full of leaders, but I wouldn't really be ecstatic about bringing him into a situation full of youth. Pittsburgh would be a great fit for him.

Andrew Amerk First Liner

Andrew Amerk

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

 

He's a 30-goal scorer who could be a 40-goal scorer if he wasn't so concerned with everything but hockey. Frustrating. I'd take him on a team full of leaders, but I wouldn't really be ecstatic about bringing him into a situation full of youth. Pittsburgh would be a great fit for him.

 

I think Nolan would have a better shot of whipping him into shape than Noel or Maurice or Bylsma.

Edited by Andrew Amerk
qwksndmonster All Star

qwksndmonster

Posted
Posted

I think Nolan would have a better shot of whipping him into shape than Noel or Maurice or Bylsma.

I don't think we have the roster to accommodate a player like him. If we already had solid player leadership, I'd be okay with it.

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted

 

 

I think Nolan would have a better shot of whipping him into shape than Noel or Maurice or Bylsma.

 

No chance he'd fit on this young team, though.

deluca67 All Star

deluca67

Posted
Posted

Canucks miss playoffs with loss to Anaheim.

The Devils chances took a monster hit last nigh as well. Congratulations to the Blue Jackets if they can hang on over the last four games.

 

Looking at the top team s in the west, out of the top six, possible only the Avalanche would be considered a surprise if they ended up hoisting the Stanley Cup. It's going to be about match-ups and survival in the West.

 

Again this year a .500 record and a plus goal differential seems to be marker for making the playoffs/being in the hunt. The only exception appears to be Detroit who has a minus 11 goal differential and will need to win out over the final four games to reach .500. All 14 non-playoff teams will finish with less than 40 wins and negative goal differentials.

Trettioåtta Second Liner

Trettioåtta

Posted
Posted (edited)

I think Nolan would have a better shot of whipping him into shape than Noel or Maurice or Bylsma.

 

This is not aimed at you really, but it does amuse me that so many of us (me included) have this image that TN can turn anybody around. Like his super power is to give aimless wanders purpose. Let's trade for OV, Kane and Semin and watch Nolan turn them into Gretzky, Lemieux and Hull :P

Edited by ThirtyEight
LastPommerFan First Liner

LastPommerFan

Posted
Posted

This is not aimed at you really, but it does amuse me that so many of us (me included) have this image that TN can turn anybody around. Like his super power is to give aimless wanders purpose. Let's trade for OV, Kane and Semin and watch Nolan turn them into Gretzky, Lemieux and Hull :P

 

 

Josie-

 

If you get bored sometime, can we get a superhero Ted Nolan.

carpandean First Liner

carpandean

Posted
Posted

Again this year a .500 record and a plus goal differential seems to be marker for making the playoffs/being in the hunt. The only exception appears to be Detroit who has a minus 11 goal differential and will need to win out over the final four games to reach .500. All 14 non-playoff teams will finish with less than 40 wins and negative goal differentials.

 

Detroit has had 5 SO wins and 8 SO losses, so their actual goal differential is only -8. Their record, when expressed as ROW/ROL/SO(W or L) is:

 

32-33-13

 

I know that SO's are part of the scoring system, so you can't completely ignore them. However, even the league acknowledges that they are different by tracking ROW. If I were trying to create a model to predict playoff performance, I would likely treat them as a tie or something much less than a normal win/loss. In fact, look at the current records as I describe them:

 

post-1053-0-14170700-1396961747_thumb.jpg

 

Dark Green = In (locked), Light Green = In (not locked), Yellow = Out (Not Eliminated), Red = Eliminated

 

NJ is out because they have been unimaginably terrible team in a meaningless (come playoff time) part of the game.

shrader Hall of Famer

shrader

Posted
Posted

NJ is out because they have been unimaginably terrible team in a meaningless (come playoff time) part of the game.

 

I'm too lazy to go digging through the standings, but did you happen to see any specific teams that are in for the opposite reason, being really good in that skills competition? There has to be someone that won an unusually high number of shootouts.

carpandean First Liner

carpandean

Posted
Posted (edited)

I'm too lazy to go digging through the standings, but did you happen to see any specific teams that are in for the opposite reason, being really good in that skills competition? There has to be someone that won an unusually high number of shootouts.

 

Toronto is a lot closer than they would be, having gone 9-4 in shootouts. Other teams that had strong records: St. Louis (9-3), San Jose (10-7), Pittsburgh (6-2), Montreal (6-3), LA (8-4), Columbus (5-2), Calgary (6-3) and Buffalo (7-4). Washington went 10-10, so they got a lot of points in the SO, but no more than a coin-flip amount given they were in so many. Anaheim (2-6), Philly (3-7), Nashville (2-8), Carolina (1-4) and, of course, NJ (0-11) were particularly bad. Nashville and NJ are on the outside, in part, because of that.

Edited by carpandean
josie Second Liner

josie

Posted
Posted (edited)

Josie-

 

If you get bored sometime, can we get a superhero Ted Nolan.

:P

 

 

..... my lunchbreak is soon.

Edited by Josie914
This topic is OLD. A NEW topic should be started unless there is a VERY SPECIFIC REASON to revive this one.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...