Around the NHL - 2013-2014

[dudacek]

 

 

Is the 39 the current level for the season, or the level since teddy took over?

 

What he said. If it's cumulative, then that's not bad. If it's a direct comparison, that surprising.

All I know is the shot totals seem a lot more equal now, and Duff actually shows us green sometimes in the intermission Corsi.

Edited December 11, 2013 by dudacek

[Iron Crotch]

...this is the around the NHL thread?

 

2 games for Cowen's dirty head shot on Gus last night: http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/jared-cowen-suspended-2-games-for-girgensons-hit-1.2459808

 

Of course, it barely knocked Gus off stride since he's a freakin' bull. :thumbsup:

[TrueBlueGED]

Is the 39 the current level for the season, or the level since teddy took over?

 

Current level for the season. Team has 9 more games under Rolston, so the improvement is a little better than 2 percentage points. One factor I haven't looked at is the quality of the teams faced...for example, I think Nolan's fewer games are working in his favor given that three of them were against the Leafs, who are the second worst possession team in the league.

 

It's also worth noting that due to sample sizes, Corsi is probably a better measure that Fenwick...I just don't remember what the Corsi was under Rolston to compare. Basically I see very minimal improvement, and seeing more improvement may well be our minds playing tricks on us.

[spndnchz]

On TSNs Sportscentre this morning here in Canada the one guy joked "I'd be pissed if I had to spend $8 to sit there and then my view was blocked........"

 

Apparently they had trouble trying to strip the paper off the glass

 

The world record for largest hanging chad.

[LastPommerFan]

 

 

Current level for the season. Team has 9 more games under Rolston, so the improvement is a little better than 2 percentage points. One factor I haven't looked at is the quality of the teams faced...for example, I think Nolan's fewer games are working in his favor given that three of them were against the Leafs, who are the second worst possession team in the league.

 

It's also worth noting that due to sample sizes, Corsi is probably a better measure that Fenwick...I just don't remember what the Corsi was under Rolston to compare. Basically I see very minimal improvement, and seeing more improvement may well be our minds playing tricks on us.

 

Ok, so what is the league wide range of ff? Is 2 Pts significant? I'm trying to put your numbers in context.

 

(The math works out to a 40.8 for Nolan if you treat all games as equal.)

Edited December 12, 2013 by Glass Case Of Emotion

[TrueBlueGED]

Ok, so what is the league wide range of ff? Is 2 Pts significant? I'm trying to put your numbers in context.

 

(The math works out to a 40.8 for Nolan if you treat all games as equal.)

 

From first to last is 17.2. It's a pretty even spread of ~.1-.4 from one spot to the next highest, but at the bottom and top there's a significant (relatively speaking) gap. We're last with 39.4, then Toronto with 42.2, then Columbus with 46.4. There's a pretty clear tiering with the very top, a jumbled middle, and the very bottom. If we were in the middle under Rolston, jumping over 2 points would be significant in terms of where we rank, could jump as many as 5 spots or so. But we were so bad and so far behind that the improvement is basically meaningless relative to the rest of the league.

 

The good news is that our team shooting percentage is *really* low and just with some puck luck should rebound and lead to some more goals.

 

source: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201314&sit=5v5close&sort=FFPCT&sortdir=DESC

[carpandean]

The other thing to remember is a lag effect in coaching. The first few games, Nolan had no practice time with the team and limited knowledge of the players to use in making in-game decisions. So, while Rolston may have been coach for 20 games and Nolan for 11, one could argue that Rolston's impact was on 22-23 games to Nolan's 8-9.

 

It's also hard to project a trend with so few games, especially when they were against teams with varying ratings. Their possession ability could be going up as Nolan works with them, but it's nearly impossible to tell. I'd wait until they are 60 games into the season, then compare the first 20 (under Rolston) with the last 20 (under Nolan), throwing out the middle transition period. Not perfect either (Rolston could have shown improvement with fewer and/or improving rookies, too), but more reasonable to me.

Edited December 12, 2013 by carpandean

[dudacek]

From today's Buffalo News:

 

"Opponents are outshooting them by just 134-133 in the (past) five games. The average of 26.8 against is nearly 10 fewer than the previous 27 contests, when Ryan Miller and Jhonas Enroth must have felt they were in a county fair shooting gallery at times.

Buffalo held Montreal to 19 shots in Saturday’s 3-2 loss, its fewest by an opponent this year. On Tuesday the Sabres equaled their season high for a game (36) and set a season mark for shots in a period (18 in the second)."

Edited December 12, 2013 by dudacek

[LastPommerFan]

From first to last is 17.2. It's a pretty even spread of ~.1-.4 from one spot to the next highest, but at the bottom and top there's a significant (relatively speaking) gap. We're last with 39.4, then Toronto with 42.2, then Columbus with 46.4. There's a pretty clear tiering with the very top, a jumbled middle, and the very bottom. If we were in the middle under Rolston, jumping over 2 points would be significant in terms of where we rank, could jump as many as 5 spots or so. But we were so bad and so far behind that the improvement is basically meaningless relative to the rest of the league.

 

The good news is that our team shooting percentage is *really* low and just with some puck luck should rebound and lead to some more goals.

 

source: http://stats.hockeya...CT&sortdir=DESC

 

It'll be interesting to see what it is at Game 41.

 

I'm not sure about puck luck. Stafford has been able to maintain his ridiculously low shooting% for like 150 games. That's not bad luck.

[TrueBlueGED]

The other thing to remember is a lag effect in coaching. The first few games, Nolan had no practice time with the team and limited knowledge of the players to use in making in-game decisions. So, while Rolston may have been coach for 20 games and Nolan for 11, one could argue that Rolston's impact was on 22-23 games to Nolan's 8-9.

 

It's also hard to project a trend with so few games, especially when they were against teams with varying ratings. Their possession ability could be going up as Nolan works with them, but it's nearly impossible to tell. I'd wait until they are 60 games into the season, then compare the first 20 (under Rolston) with the last 20 (under Nolan), throwing out the middle transition period. Not perfect either (Rolston could have shown improvement with fewer and/or improving rookies, too), but more reasonable to me.

 

I think playing the Leafs in his first two games as coach more than offsets any "transition effects" from Ron to Nolan if you're only going to look at the first few games after the change. If you want the longer time frame of your second paragraph, then we're basically spinning our wheels at this point. I will say that I'm not convinced that natural player growth (and possible roster changes) over a 40 game span is less important to control for than coaching transition effects. If we're going to be using only Ron's 20 game split from this season, we're going to have some short-term effects, just a question of which ones we're more concerned with. How would you feel about expanding Rolston's sample out into last season, say after the trade deadline?

 

From today's Buffalo News:

 

"Opponents are outshooting them by just 134-133 in the (past) five games. The average of 26.8 against is nearly 10 fewer than the previous 27 contests, when Ryan Miller and Jhonas Enroth must have felt they were in a county fair shooting gallery at times.

Buffalo held Montreal to 19 shots in Saturday’s 3-2 loss, its fewest by an opponent this year. On Tuesday the Sabres equaled their season high for a game (36) and set a season mark for shots in a period (18 in the second)."

 

IMO it's hard to read much into that since it isn't taking score effects into account. Take a look at the graphs here: http://www.extraskater.com/team/buffalo-sabres/2013#performance-graphs

There's been a mild uptick in possession in recent games while the game is close, but there was a very similar trend early in the season.

 

It'll be interesting to see what it is at Game 41.

 

I'm not sure about puck luck. Stafford has been able to maintain his ridiculously low shooting% for like 150 games. That's not bad luck.

 

For sure. At the very least we'll know if the past few games are a mirage or some meaningful improvement.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

:unsure:

[Assquatch]

Another GM spot opens up.

Feaster famine: Calgary relieves GM Jay Feaster and Assistant GM John Weisbrod of duties, effective immediately.

[dudacek]

You had to figure that was coming as soon as Burke arrived.

He will hire a guy, but I'd imagine whoever it is will be a yes-man as he consolidates power.

Don't see this affecting our search much, but it may accelerate the process if Patty already has strong feelings about one of the candidates.

[MattPie]

Around the NHL AHL ECHL(?): Tim Connelly going full-recluse.

http://www.syracuse.com/crunch/index.ssf/2013/12/tim_connolly.html

 

If someone already posted, my apologies.

[darksabre]

Around the NHL AHL ECHL(?): Tim Connelly going full-recluse.

http://www.syracuse....m_connolly.html

 

If someone already posted, my apologies.

 

Yikes. I wonder if he's dealing with some health issues.

[IKnowPhysics]

Another GM spot opens up.

Feaster famine: Calgary relieves GM Jay Feaster and Assistant GM John Weisbrod of duties, effective immediately.

 

Raise your hand if you're surprised. Garth Snow may edged him as most incompetent GM, but not by much.

 

Yikes. I wonder if he's dealing with some health issues.

 

He's gotta be. Maybe even mental health issues at this point.

 

We sure didn't like him on our roster, and it was funny at first, but you hate to see such a meteoric decline in a guy's career. Playing the game was killing him.

 

edit: And with that, actually, I humbly request some discussion about changing the default avatar from Timmy to someone else. Maybe Rory Fitzpatrick?

Edited December 12, 2013 by IKnowPhysics

[MattPie]

edit: And with that, actually, I humbly request some discussion about changing the default avatar from Timmy to someone else. Maybe Rory Fitzpatrick?

 

I'll second that, there really seems to be something not ticking over right with Tim.

Edited December 12, 2013 by MattPie

[That Aud Smell]

You had to figure that was coming as soon as Burke arrived.

 

this guy.

 

 

edit: And with that, actually, I humbly request some discussion about changing the default avatar from Timmy to someone else. Maybe Rory Fitzpatrick?

 

it's time:

 

Edited December 12, 2013 by That Aud Smell

[JJFIVEOH]

It'll be interesting to see what it is at Game 41.

 

I'm not sure about puck luck. Stafford has been able to maintain his ridiculously low shooting% for like 150 games. That's not bad luck.

 

It'll take a long time to even out those incredibly lucky bounces he got in his 31 goal season.

[SwampD]

Yikes. I wonder if he's dealing with some health issues.

I worry about the concussion/depression thing with him. Anyway, retiring to a lake house and tuning out the world sounds like my own personal heaven. Lucky bastage.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

 

 

Raise your hand if you're surprised. Garth Snow may edged him as most incompetent GM, but not by much.

 

 

Regier, Feaster and Snow in that race is like watching Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Spectacular Bid coming down the stretch at the same time....

[That Aud Smell]

I worry about the concussion/depression thing with him.

 

as do i.

[...]

 

 

it's time:

 

 

I'll second this choice.

 

[darksabre]

 

 

I'll second this choice.

 

Third.

[MattPie]

Third.

 

I'll be the voice of dissent: using a current player is in bad taste. Come July 1, maybe.