Goalie Market Heating Up?

[IKnowPhysics]

Ekman-Larsson please.

 

I'd do Vanek and Miller for E-L and #12.

[TrueBlueGED]

Ekman-Larsson please.

 

I'd do Vanek and Miller for E-L and #12.

 

Somebody's been drinking a little early :P

 

I don't think taking on nearly $14MM in contracts is something the 'Yotes are in position to do. Even if we retain salary, I'd bet their combined price tag on extensions isn't much if any less (and I'm working under the assumption we can't eat money on extensions that have yet to activate).

[thesportsbuff]

Minny was expecting a playoff run. I'm thinking they were betting on that pick being in the 20's, not teens. That drops the value of that pick considerably.

 

Actually, the Pommer trade reflects the sliding scale of value pretty well. You have a top line RW w/ 1 yr remaining getting moved for a late 1st rd pick(read 3rd liner) , a prospect that will likely end up on the 3rd line, and a goalie with NHL potential. In other words,Two 3rd liners and a goalie that isn't the top goalie in the system.

 

Solid scoring talent (for 1 season) = two 3rd liners and a backup goalie.

 

Seems like we could use the same equation in the Miller trade, eh? #18, a good (not great) prospect, and ??

 

I don't know about all this. Was Minnesota was really counting on a playoff "run?" Granted, the standings were a little different at the deadline than how they finished the season, but I'm not so sure Minnesota was actually expecting to beat a Chicago or LA, or even a San Jose or St. Louis. In retrospect, it's hard to imagine Minnesota beating any of the Western playoff teams. Perhaps they did have higher expectations, but I think the move was made more with the future (ie next season & beyond) in mind rather than being a case of going all-in on this season. I think they were fully aware that their pick would likely be in the the mid-to-late teens.

 

Also, keep in mind that although Pominville only has just 1 year remaining, they are also paying for the right to negotiate an extension with him. Do not look too far into the "scoring talent for one season" thing-- this is a player that otherwise would not be available to them in any capacity. Maybe they're willing to pay Jason whatever he wants salary wise, but if they had passed on the deal and tried to wait until he hits UFA or something, they'd have zero shot at signing him. IMO There is no way this trade was made with the intention of letting Pommer walk after next season, and if that's the way it's looking come next March, they'll be able to trade him for at least a first round pick as a rental.

 

To me, the trade is "Pominville" -- no need to quantify as "Pominville for one season" -- (+4th rounder) for a Mid-first round pick (on par w/ an Armia, Tarasenko, Kreider), the organization's top forward prospect (2nd/3rd line), the organizations top goalie prospect, and a second-round pick.

 

Now, Larsson might be a few notches below the other guys I listed in terms of likelihood of making an impact in the NHL, but he's certainly more valuable than a second round pick (where he was selected). I think if you combine Larsson and Hackett, that turns into basically another mid-to-late first round pick. So ... Pominville for two first round picks + a second round pick.

 

Vanek would be a similar return: two first round picks (15 or earlier), or a first round pick(5-10) and an A-level prospect. No additional second-rounder required in my opinion based on the first rounders being earlier or the prospect being better than Larsson.

 

Miller would be a lesser return: one first round pick (~15 or so) + a b-level prospect (~Larsson level), or one first round pick (Top 5-10).

 

Jeez now that I wrote a book about it, I should say again that this is just my opinion and nobody is really right or wrong until something happens. I just feel that you(weave) were undervaluing the return we got for Pommer by classifying them as third liners.

[TrueBlueGED]

To me, the trade is "Pominville" -- no need to quantify as "Pominville for one season" -- (+4th rounder) for a Mid-first round pick (on par w/ an Armia, Tarasenko, Kreider), the organization's top forward prospect (2nd/3rd line), the organizations top goalie prospect, and a second-round pick.

 

I'm just picking this out because it gets tossed around a lot by Sabres fans, but it's not accurate. Larsson was the Wild's 5th best prospect behind Granlund, Coyle, Brodin and Dumba. Hackett had fallen to #2 on the organizational depth chart behind Kuemper. I agree that Larsson has more value than a pure 2nd round pick simply because he's developed and is now expected to be an NHL player, but we need to stop pretending we got the Wild's best prospects in the deal. It's just a pet peeve of mine how the Pominville deal gets evaluated.

 

That said, I think you're pretty close to the right value for Vanek and MIller. I differ in that I expect the picks to be the later half of the 1st round just because I think the teams most interested in the players will be the better teams who pick there. I also don't think Vanek gets an A-level prospect (if by A-level you mean a blue-chip prospect, not simply one with first line potential....if you're simply talking about a guy with 1st line potential, then I think that's possible).

[Weave]

..prologue to a novel..

 

To me, the trade is "Pominville" -- no need to quantify as "Pominville for one season" -- (+4th rounder) for a Mid-first round pick (on par w/ an Armia, Tarasenko, Kreider), the organization's top forward prospect (2nd/3rd line), the organizations top goalie prospect, and a second-round pick.

 

Now, Larsson might be a few notches below the other guys I listed in terms of likelihood of making an impact in the NHL, but he's certainly more valuable than a second round pick (where he was selected). I think if you combine Larsson and Hackett, that turns into basically another mid-to-late first round pick. So ... Pominville for two first round picks + a second round pick.

 

...epilogue...

 

1. Contract length HAS to be considered in any trade when determining value. One year of Pominville is the reality. I really doubt Minny trades anything more than say a 5th round pick value for the ability to negotiate with Pommer. it's his service this season that they get. The rest is, well, not terribly valuable at all. See trades for signing rights as examples (ie. Erhoff).

 

2. You only get to 2 firsts and a 2nd with gymnastics. The trade is what it is. A prospect looking like a solid 3rd liner, a pick that statistically ends up 3rd line talent, and the 2nd best goalie prospect in their system.

 

I'm just picking this out because it gets tossed around a lot by Sabres fans, but it's not accurate. Larsson was the Wild's 5th best prospect behind Granlund, Coyle, Brodin and Dumba. Hackett had fallen to #2 on the organizational depth chart behind Kuemper. I agree that Larsson has more value than a pure 2nd round pick simply because he's developed and is now expected to be an NHL player, but we need to stop pretending we got the Wild's best prospects in the deal. It's just a pet peeve of mine how the Pominville deal gets evaluated.

 

Yep. Two 3rd liners and a backup goalie prospect.

[Chief Enabler]

Why wouldn't a progressive gm make a pitch for enroth at this point and Darcy actually exploit/entertain it. Just sayin, hypothetically renegotiate miller for the down years of his career.

 

Question would be if you would get the same value (1st rounder) for enroth at this point? Tomorrow

[X. Benedict]

Why wouldn't a progressive gm make a pitch for enroth at this point and Darcy actually exploit/entertain it. Just sayin, hypothetically renegotiate miller for the down years of his career.

 

Question would be if you would get the same value (1st rounder) for enroth at this point? Tomorrow

There would be very little return for Enroth in a trade at this point - teams that are poised to make a cup run next year are not going to spend much on a goaltender with 20 career wins in 50 career starts. The body of work just isn't there yet.

[Chief Enabler]

 

There would be very little return for Enroth in a trade at this point - teams that are poised to make a cup run next year are not going to spend much on a goaltender with 20 career wins in 50 career starts. The body of work just isn't there yet.

but the sabres are betting on that exact theory. (Not winning the cup) . My question is in the tank of who would you rather have to make a run? Look at Corey Crawford today? Or Tukka Rask? Rather nobody enroth clones to get hot and win like the world championships, I think there is alittle value there.

[thesportsbuff]

2. You only get to 2 firsts and a 2nd with gymnastics. The trade is what it is. A prospect looking like a solid 3rd liner, a pick that statistically ends up 3rd line talent, and the 2nd best goalie prospect in their system.

 

Regardless of the Pominville thing, you're still assuming that Minnesota "expected" to be giving a mid-20's pick that you equate to third liners. I'm not convinced that's the case but only the guy who made the decision will ever know what his true intentions were. I think it's unfair to call it "two third liners and a backup goalie" when what we actually got is #16 (Armia, Tarasenko, Leddy recently taken at #16), a prospect who projects to play in the NHL (maybe 3rd line, but also maybe 2nd) and a young back-up goalie who could develop into a starter. It's not like we got a "cemented" back-up like Patrick Lalime or Tellqvist, whose best years are behind them.

[Weave]

Regardless of the Pominville thing, you're still assuming that Minnesota "expected" to be giving a mid-20's pick that you equate to third liners. I'm not convinced that's the case but only the guy who made the decision will ever know what his true intentions were. I think it's unfair to call it "two third liners and a backup goalie" when what we actually got is #16 (Armia, Tarasenko, Leddy recently taken at #16), a prospect who projects to play in the NHL (maybe 3rd line, but also maybe 2nd) and a young back-up goalie who could develop into a starter. It's not like we got a "cemented" back-up like Patrick Lalime or Tellqvist, whose best years are behind them.

 

Take a look in the Sabre's draft thread at PhD's post. At #16 you are starting to see the picks get closer to coin toss odds to even make an impact, let alone be expected top 6 players.

[Hoss]

I recall reading that he submits a list at the beginning of every season because that's the way his particular NTC works. No idea how accurate that is.

 

It's inaccurate. The lists are provided when asked. Hence why Pominville said he wasn't asked to submit a list, and then when he was asked he basically said he had submitted the list without directly saying it. There was a report by a few reliable Canadian reporters saying that Miller was asked to provide his list the night before the deadline.

[sicknfla]

Miller was traded at the deadline. Something happened last minute that voided the trade. It all tied in with us getting Hackett. Miller goes and Hackett joins Enroth for the remainder of the year. Trade gets nixed and Miller spends the rest of the year being a douchebag. If Ryan Miller was or is part of the plan Hackett is not in the deal.

 

 

[dudacek]

Miller was traded at the deadline. Something happened last minute that voided the trade. It all tied in with us getting Hackett. Miller goes and Hackett joins Enroth for the remainder of the year. Trade gets nixed and Miller spends the rest of the year being a douchebag. If Ryan Miller was or is part of the plan Hackett is not in the deal.

 

Fax machine?

[X. Benedict]

Miller was traded at the deadline. Something happened last minute that voided the trade. It all tied in with us getting Hackett. Miller goes and Hackett joins Enroth for the remainder of the year. Trade gets nixed and Miller spends the rest of the year being a douchebag. If Ryan Miller was or is part of the plan Hackett is not in the deal.

:blink:

[Hoss]

I don't know about all this. Was Minnesota was really counting on a playoff "run?" Granted, the standings were a little different at the deadline than how they finished the season, but I'm not so sure Minnesota was actually expecting to beat a Chicago or LA, or even a San Jose or St. Louis. In retrospect, it's hard to imagine Minnesota beating any of the Western playoff teams. Perhaps they did have higher expectations, but I think the move was made more with the future (ie next season & beyond) in mind rather than being a case of going all-in on this season. I think they were fully aware that their pick would likely be in the the mid-to-late teens.

 

Also, keep in mind that although Pominville only has just 1 year remaining, they are also paying for the right to negotiate an extension with him. Do not look too far into the "scoring talent for one season" thing-- this is a player that otherwise would not be available to them in any capacity. Maybe they're willing to pay Jason whatever he wants salary wise, but if they had passed on the deal and tried to wait until he hits UFA or something, they'd have zero shot at signing him. IMO There is no way this trade was made with the intention of letting Pommer walk after next season, and if that's the way it's looking come next March, they'll be able to trade him for at least a first round pick as a rental.

 

To me, the trade is "Pominville" -- no need to quantify as "Pominville for one season" -- (+4th rounder) for a Mid-first round pick (on par w/ an Armia, Tarasenko, Kreider), the organization's top forward prospect (2nd/3rd line), the organizations top goalie prospect, and a second-round pick.

 

Now, Larsson might be a few notches below the other guys I listed in terms of likelihood of making an impact in the NHL, but he's certainly more valuable than a second round pick (where he was selected). I think if you combine Larsson and Hackett, that turns into basically another mid-to-late first round pick. So ... Pominville for two first round picks + a second round pick.

 

Vanek would be a similar return: two first round picks (15 or earlier), or a first round pick(5-10) and an A-level prospect. No additional second-rounder required in my opinion based on the first rounders being earlier or the prospect being better than Larsson.

 

Miller would be a lesser return: one first round pick (~15 or so) + a b-level prospect (~Larsson level), or one first round pick (Top 5-10).

 

Jeez now that I wrote a book about it, I should say again that this is just my opinion and nobody is really right or wrong until something happens. I just feel that you(weave) were undervaluing the return we got for Pommer by classifying them as third liners.

 

Larsson wasn't Minnesota's top forward prospect, and Hackett wasn't Minny's top goalie prospect. Granlund, Coyle and Lucia are all possibly better. They have a few more. Darcy Kuemper is better than Hackett.

 

But I agree with your point.

 

Miller was traded at the deadline. Something happened last minute that voided the trade. It all tied in with us getting Hackett. Miller goes and Hackett joins Enroth for the remainder of the year. Trade gets nixed and Miller spends the rest of the year being a douchebag. If Ryan Miller was or is part of the plan Hackett is not in the deal.

 

HIGHLY doubtful.

 

Take a look in the Sabre's draft thread at PhD's post. At #16 you are starting to see the picks get closer to coin toss odds to even make an impact, let alone be expected top 6 players.

 

Looking at 16th overall picks over the years:

 

2012: Tom Wilson (WAS) not in the NHL yet. (One of Washington's top prospects)

2011: Joel Armia (BUF) coming next season. (One of our top prospects)

2010: Vladimir Tarasenko (STL) Had a fantastic season this year, one of the top prospects.

2009: Nick Leddy (MIN) Moved to Chicago and is having a great impact on a contender.

 

 

As soon as you pass that line, there is a lot of struggle at 16. But lately it's been a lot better odds than a coin toss.

[TrueBlueGED]

Looking at 16th overall picks over the years:

 

2012: Tom Wilson (WAS) not in the NHL yet. (One of Washington's top prospects)

2011: Joel Armia (BUF) coming next season. (One of our top prospects)

2010: Vladimir Tarasenko (STL) Had a fantastic season this year, one of the top prospects.

2009: Nick Leddy (MIN) Moved to Chicago and is having a great impact on a contender.

 

 

As soon as you pass that line, there is a lot of struggle at 16. But lately it's been a lot better odds than a coin toss.

 

Maybe you can make a judgment on Leddy, but the other three combined have played 42 NHL games. I have no idea how you conclude it's been better recently as it's still very much in question whether these good prospects turn into good players.