Goalie Market Heating Up?

[X. Benedict]

http://www.calgarysu...mains-wide-open

 

"“There’s a lot of teams in the market,” said a league executive on the weekend.

Here’s some names to watch:

--Miller has one year left on his contract and the Sabres asked him for a list of teams where he wouldn’t go just before the deadline. It looks like his time has passed. He’d like to end up on the west coast. Phoenix might be a fit if they stay.

--If Miller gets dealt to the Coyotes, it’s because the club has decided not to bring Mike Smith back. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent on July 5 and has refused to sign because he wants to know where the club will be next season. So does everybody else."

 

 

 

He also thinks Lindy is a finalist out West.

[deluca67]

http://www.calgarysu...mains-wide-open

 

"“There’s a lot of teams in the market,” said a league executive on the weekend.

Here’s some names to watch:

--Miller has one year left on his contract and the Sabres asked him for a list of teams where he wouldn’t go just before the deadline. It looks like his time has passed. He’d like to end up on the west coast. Phoenix might be a fit if they stay.

--If Miller gets dealt to the Coyotes, it’s because the club has decided not to bring Mike Smith back. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent on July 5 and has refused to sign because he wants to know where the club will be next season. So does everybody else."

 

 

 

He also thinks Lindy is a finalist out West.

I would gladly like to see the #12 pick added to the pile of Sabres assets.

[X. Benedict]

I would gladly like to see the #12 pick added to the pile of Sabres assets.

 

12 would be plum. Even without Miller in the equation, I could see the Sabres trying to get to 12.

[TrueBlueGED]

I'd much rather get Hanzal than the #12 pick.

[shrader]

I love how some of these rumors slowly morph over time. I don't remember every seeing anything until right now saying that Miller was asked to put in his list of teams where he wouldn't accept a deal. It almost feels like that being asked of Pominville has now suddenly changed to Miller.

[LGR4GM]

As I work in academia I have become increasingly skeptical of some of these "reports" that do not have clear sources. That being said I think the only way Miller can possibly be traded to Phoenix is if their is a legitimate ownership group there. It is embarrassing how long this process has dragged out.

[Weave]

I love how some of these rumors slowly morph over time. I don't remember every seeing anything until right now saying that Miller was asked to put in his list of teams where he wouldn't accept a deal. It almost feels like that being asked of Pominville has now suddenly changed to Miller.

 

I recall some rumor of Miller being asked at deadline time, but I don't recall any of it being much more than the usual trade deadline get-hits-on-my-page stuff.

[TrueBlueGED]

I recall some rumor of Miller being asked at deadline time, but I don't recall any of it being much more than the usual trade deadline get-hits-on-my-page stuff.

 

I recall reading that he submits a list at the beginning of every season because that's the way his particular NTC works. No idea how accurate that is.

 

[Weave]

I recall reading that he submits a list at the beginning of every season because that's the way his particular NTC works. No idea how accurate that is.

 

Maybe that is it. Whatever I heard at deadline time seemed very uninteresting so I don't recall the details.

 

So, if Buffalo is after Pheonix's #12 pick, does more come back with it? What is Miller's likely value?

[That Aud Smell]

So, if Buffalo is after Pheonix's #12 pick, does more come back with it? What is Miller's likely value?

 

It fascinates and delights me how set the relative values of draft picks have become in the NFL. You know what I'm talking about -- I posted on this elsewhere (upthread here?) -- every pick has a quantitative value (that teams more or less agree on) and if you offer another team enough aggregated value in picks, then you can have their pick.

 

I have no idea how this works in the NHL. Didn't Vogl do an article about moving up? My takeaway is that it doesn't happen very often. I have no sense on what it will cost to move up from 16-to-12 or from 8-to-3.

[dudacek]

Is Calgary a possible Miller destination, if Kiprusoff decides to hang em up?

 

...and you guys did see that was a Garrioch byline? Not the most reliable source.

[TrueBlueGED]

Is Calgary a possible Miller destination, if Kiprusoff decides to hang em up?

 

...and you guys did see that was a Garrioch byline? Not the most reliable source.

 

It's June, the conference finals have been terrible, John Tortorella getting fired somehow garnered a full three pages, and the Sabres haven't done anything to draw our attention (seriously, no assistant coaches yet?). I think many of us can be roped into discussing just about anything at this point :lol:

[That Aud Smell]

I have no idea how this works in the NHL. Didn't Vogl do an article about moving up? My takeaway is that it doesn't happen very often. I have no sense on what it will cost to move up from 16-to-12 or from 8-to-3.

 

I went back and found the article, here's what he wrote:In the 25 drafts since 1988, a top-seven pick has been dealt in 10 of them.

 

There have been a total of 15 transactions as the 1999 draft turned into a swap meet and a pair of deals went down in both 2002 and 2008. The teams holding the eighth pick have moved up only twice in 25 years. In both trades, the club had to give up a second-round pick to jump just a few spots.It was definitely worth it:

 

• In 1992, the New York Islanders dealt the No. 8 pick and a second-round selection to Toronto for the No. 5 pick. The Isles selected Darius Kasparaitis after moving up. The Maple Leafs took Brandon Convery at No. 8 and wound up trading the second-round pick as part of a deal for the 23rd overall selection, Grant Marshall.

 

• In 2004, Carolina sent the No. 8 pick and a second-round selection to Columbus for the No. 4 pick. The Hurricanes picked Andrew Ladd after moving up. Columbus took Alexandre Picard at No. 8 and used the second-round pick on Kyle Wharton.

 

+++

 

So, it appears that a 2nd-rounder (depending on where it falls in that round, I am sure) may be enough to move from 8-to-5 or even 8-to-4. We have the 38th and 52nd overall pick in Round 2 this year -- that 38th pick together with the 8th probably won't be enough to move us up into the top 3. But we have 3 (?) 2nd rounders in 2014 (from Regehr and Pominville).

[TrueBlueGED]

I went back and found the article, here's what he wrote:In the 25 drafts since 1988, a top-seven pick has been dealt in 10 of them.

 

There have been a total of 15 transactions as the 1999 draft turned into a swap meet and a pair of deals went down in both 2002 and 2008. The teams holding the eighth pick have moved up only twice in 25 years. In both trades, the club had to give up a second-round pick to jump just a few spots.It was definitely worth it:

 

• In 1992, the New York Islanders dealt the No. 8 pick and a second-round selection to Toronto for the No. 5 pick. The Isles selected Darius Kasparaitis after moving up. The Maple Leafs took Brandon Convery at No. 8 and wound up trading the second-round pick as part of a deal for the 23rd overall selection, Grant Marshall.

 

• In 2004, Carolina sent the No. 8 pick and a second-round selection to Columbus for the No. 4 pick. The Hurricanes picked Andrew Ladd after moving up. Columbus took Alexandre Picard at No. 8 and used the second-round pick on Kyle Wharton.

 

+++

 

So, it appears that a 2nd-rounder (depending on where it falls in that round, I am sure) may be enough to move from 8-to-5 or even 8-to-4. We have the 38th and 52nd overall pick in Round 2 this year -- that 38th pick together with the 8th probably won't be enough to move us up into the top 3. But we have 3 (?) 2nd rounders in 2014 (from Regehr and Pominville).

 

I don't think anything before the lockout is applicable to current trade value for top picks. The advent of the salary cap has made team control of top assets at low prices crucial to team building (how many Cup champs since 2005 haven't had cheap labor making important contributions?). If (and this is one hefty "if") the Sabres moved up to #4, I'd happily place a charity wager that it costs much more than a second round pick. The fact of the matter is top picks haven't been traded since the salary cap was implemented, and with the cap going down and presumably growing at a slower rate due to a 50/50 split, I can't imagine that this trend reverses itself anytime soon.

[nucci]

I would think the Penguins will be in the market for a goalie after this series.

[LGR4GM]

Maybe that is it. Whatever I heard at deadline time seemed very uninteresting so I don't recall the details.

 

So, if Buffalo is after Pheonix's #12 pick, does more come back with it? What is Miller's likely value?

Well I would guess we get 12th overall probably their 3rd rounder, and a really good prospect or roster player? (Henrik Samuelsson)?

[spndnchz]

I don't think anything before the lockout is applicable to current trade value for top picks. The advent of the salary cap has made team control of top assets at low prices crucial to team building (how many Cup champs since 2005 haven't had cheap labor making important contributions?). If (and this is one hefty "if") the Sabres moved up to #4, I'd happily place a charity wager that it costs much more than a second round pick. The fact of the matter is top picks haven't been traded since the salary cap was implemented, and with the cap going down and presumably growing at a slower rate due to a 50/50 split, I can't imagine that this trend reverses itself anytime soon.

 

The split would have nothing to do with revenue growth.

[TrueBlueGED]

The split would have nothing to do with revenue growth.

 

I meant cap growth. A 10% revenue growth under the new system should have a lower cap increase than the old 57/43 split, no?

[spndnchz]

I meant cap growth. A 10% revenue growth under the new system should have a lower cap increase than the old 57/43 split, no?

 

I see what you're thinking. But a 10% revenue growth would make a 10% cap increase.

 

The cap goes up with revenue growth. The split of the money is really an after thought.

 

What the owners did was scale back the cap by 8% or so while still looking at a 4% revenue growth before the 50/50 split. A 10% revenue growth next year would put the cap back at 70.730 million for 2014-15.

[Weave]

Well I would guess we get 12th overall probably their 3rd rounder, and a really good prospect or roster player? (Henrik Samuelsson)?

 

For a good, but not All Star goalie with 1 yr left on his contract? Cheez, I hope the return would be that high but I'm skeptical.

[That Aud Smell]

Well I would guess we get 12th overall probably their 3rd rounder, and a really good prospect or roster player? (Henrik Samuelsson)?

For a good, but not All Star goalie with 1 yr left on his contract? Cheez, I hope the return would be that high but I'm skeptical.

 

I will be very interested to see -- almost in an abstract, clinica; way -- what Miller's value proves to be.

 

Pominville + a 4th rounder were moved at the deadline for a 1st, a 2nd, and 2 prospects (one very good one and another good one, I guess). As I've learned, the reasoning is that, even if we accept that they are equally good and equally wanted players, Pominville had a greater value than Miller because the Wild got him for the end of 2013 as well as 2013-2014.

 

So, under this scenario, maybe it'd be something like Miller for Phoenix's 1st this year, a top-3 organizational prospect or solid rostered NHL player, plus some additional draft pick in 2014 (perhaps conditional (low as a 3rd, high as another 1st?)).

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I'd much rather get Hanzal than the #12 pick.

 

Miller/2nd round pick/prospect

[Weave]

I will be very interested to see -- almost in an abstract, clinica; way -- what Miller's value proves to be.

 

Pominville + a 4th rounder were moved at the deadline for a 1st, a 2nd, and 2 prospects (one very good one and another good one, I guess). As I've learned, the reasoning is that, even if we accept that they are equally good and equally wanted players, Pominville had a greater value than Miller because the Wild got him for the end of 2013 as well as 2013-2014.

 

So, under this scenario, maybe it'd be something like Miller for Phoenix's 1st this year, a top-3 organizational prospect or solid rostered NHL player, plus some additional draft pick in 2014 (perhaps conditional (low as a 3rd, high as another 1st?)).

 

Minny was expecting a playoff run. I'm thinking they were betting on that pick being in the 20's, not teens. That drops the value of that pick considerably.

 

Actually, the Pommer trade reflects the sliding scale of value pretty well. You have a top line RW w/ 1 yr remaining getting moved for a late 1st rd pick(read 3rd liner) , a prospect that will likely end up on the 3rd line, and a goalie with NHL potential. In other words,Two 3rd liners and a goalie that isn't the top goalie in the system.

 

Solid scoring talent (for 1 season) = two 3rd liners and a backup goalie.

 

Seems like we could use the same equation in the Miller trade, eh? #18, a good (not great) prospect, and ??

[X. Benedict]

Minny was expecting a playoff run. I'm thinking they were betting on that pick being in the 20's, not teens. That drops the value of that pick considerably.

 

Actually, the Pommer trade reflects the sliding scale of value pretty well. You have a top line RW w/ 1 yr remaining getting moved for a late 1st rd pick(read 3rd liner) , a prospect that will likely end up on the 3rd line, and a goalie with NHL potential. In other words,Two 3rd liners and a goalie that isn't the top goalie in the system.

 

Solid scoring talent (for 1 season) = two 3rd liners and a backup goalie.

 

Seems like we could use the same equation in the Miller trade, eh? #18, a good (not great) prospect, and ??

 

I imagine Buffalo could be keeping money as a sweetener.

I wonder if it is possible to sign Miller to a multiyear, and then keep money for the term of the contract in a trade.

[TrueBlueGED]

I see what you're thinking. But a 10% revenue growth would make a 10% cap increase.

 

The cap goes up with revenue growth. The split of the money is really an after thought.

 

What the owners did was scale back the cap by 8% or so while still looking at a 4% revenue growth before the 50/50 split. A 10% revenue growth next year would put the cap back at 70.730 million for 2014-15.

 

Gotcha. Thanks for the clarification.

 

I imagine Buffalo could be keeping money as a sweetener.

I wonder if it is possible to sign Miller to a multiyear, and then keep money for the term of the contract in a trade.

 

My guess (and it's purely a guess) is that salary can only be retained on current contracts, not extensions which have yet to kick in. But it's the NHL, so the other possibility wouldn't be entirely shocking :lol: