Buffalo Bills 2013

[Eleven]

I like to apply Occam's Razor - i,e, the simplest explanation is the best. The Bills had an opportunity, with likely a 95% probability of success, of converting their position at the 1 yd line into a field goal and 3 points. 3 more points and the Bills would have won the game. The logic is inescapable, except to possibly Marrone fan-boyz.

 

It was especially stupid, given the fact the Bills had tried the same last week and failed in a similar fashion

 

Compounding the stupidity, was the blind devotion to running the ball up the middle, not even mixing in a pass play in the first 3 downs.

 

 

Do we really think the Bengals would have played better or differently in the 2nd half had the teams been tied at the half, vs the Bengals protecting a meager 3 point lead??? If anything, the Bills allowing the Bengals a successful goal line stand, holding the Bills to ZERO points, helped the morale of the Bengals appreciably.

 

If the Bills had won, you would not question this.

 

If the Bills had converted, you would not question this.

 

If, in any other circumstance, the Bills had the other team starting at the 2, you would not question it.

 

As Carpaccio put it, if it were the Bengals, what would you have wanted THEM to do? Kick.

 

It is statistically stupid, and I do mean stupid, to not go for that in the first half. Add in some whatshisname at QB, the absence of Johnson, and that means--hey--they may never get down there again (and they didn't have a drive from the two again).

 

It absolutely was the right move to go.

 

Up ten in the fourth? No.

 

Now, the play that was called, I'll take issue with that all day long. But the decision to go? In that situation, a good coach goes 100 times out of 100 opportunities.

 

In the first half, with the whole game to make up the points?* It is stupid, and I mean STUPID, not to go for it. If you can't get it, you don't get football, and I'm not saying that lightly. I realize you may be offended.

 

*They actually MADE UP THE POINTS ANYWAY when Cinci missed a 34-yarder. It was a washout.

Edited October 14, 2013 by Eleven

[Johnny DangerFace]

I'm not sure if this was pointed out, but by going for it on 4th down it may have helped us out. After not converting on 4th down, we were still down by 14. So when we had a 4th and 8 in the 4th quarter, we elected not to kick a field goal (as we would still be down by two scores) and we went for it and got a TD. This put us down by 7. If we had kicked a FG earlier in the game, we would have been down by 11. We probably would have kicked the field goal on 4th and 8 (to put us within 1 score), putting us down by 8.

[JJFIVEOH]

I'm not sure if this was pointed out, but by going for it on 4th down it may have helped us out. After not converting on 4th down, we were still down by 14. So when we had a 4th and 8 in the 4th quarter, we elected not to kick a field goal (as we would still be down by two scores) and we went for it and got a TD. This put us down by 7. If we had kicked a FG earlier in the game, we would have been down by 11. We probably would have kicked the field goal on 4th and 8 (to put us within 1 score), putting us down by 8.

 

Good call.

[Eleven]

I am getting my JJs mixed up again.

[Weave]

I am getting my JJs mixed up again.

 

They all look the same.

[grinreaper]

There is no reason whatsoever not to go for it in that particular situation. There can be no intelligent debate about it.

This is the deal: They had a first down at (I think) the two yard line. With a little chicanery they could have scored on 1st or 2nd down. This shouldn't be an issue. If they had called the fourth down play on first down, it probably would have worked. Regardless of the win/loss record I feel good about this team.

[Eleven]

This is the deal: They had a first down at (I think) the two yard line. With a little chicanery they could have scored on 1st or 2nd down. This shouldn't be an issue. If they had called the fourth down play on first down, it probably would have worked. Regardless of the win/loss record I feel good about this team.

 

As above, I do not think the play calling was ideal, but the decision to go on fourth, there is no question.

[JJFIVEOH]

I am getting my JJs mixed up again.

 

Is that a good or bad thing?

[TrueBlueGED]

I like to apply Occam's Razor - i,e, the simplest explanation is the best. The Bills had an opportunity, with likely a 95% probability of success, of converting their position at the 1 yd line into a field goal and 3 points. 3 more points and the Bills would have won the game. The logic is inescapable, except to possibly Marrone fan-boyz.

 

It was especially stupid, given the fact the Bills had tried the same last week and failed in a similar fashion

 

Compounding the stupidity, was the blind devotion to running the ball up the middle, not even mixing in a pass play in the first 3 downs.

 

 

Do we really think the Bengals would have played better or differently in the 2nd half had the teams been tied at the half, vs the Bengals protecting a meager 3 point lead??? If anything, the Bills allowing the Bengals a successful goal line stand, holding the Bills to ZERO points, helped the morale of the Bengals appreciably.

 

So you're choosing to ignore the actual statistics in favor of your own made up ones? Got it.

 

I'm not sure if this was pointed out, but by going for it on 4th down it may have helped us out. After not converting on 4th down, we were still down by 14. So when we had a 4th and 8 in the 4th quarter, we elected not to kick a field goal (as we would still be down by two scores) and we went for it and got a TD. This put us down by 7. If we had kicked a FG earlier in the game, we would have been down by 11. We probably would have kicked the field goal on 4th and 8 (to put us within 1 score), putting us down by 8.

 

This is precisely why you can't just say "if we had the 3 we'd have won"...because situational decision making is just that, situational. What you do in a given situation is going to depend, at least in part, on the decisions you made earlier. This is common sense...or should be, anyway.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I've got only one stat that has me encouraged for the future of the team, especially given the injury situation. The Bills have either been tied, or in the lead in the 4th quarter of every single game this year. That's almost amazing given the fact I expected them to take a while to find their sea legs under a new hierarchy.

 

It was nice to see some smarter decision making by the coaches today. I still get PO'd by all the defensive substituting. There are 5 to 10 plays a game where guys are running onto the field, out of position, talking, or like today again...just have 10 men on the field as the ball is snapped. Sometimes it's better just to line up your 11 prepared guys, and have them go at it.

[wjag]

I've got only one stat that has me encouraged for the future of the team, especially given the injury situation. The Bills have either been tied, or in the lead in the 4th quarter of every single game this year. That's almost amazing given the fact I expected them to take a while to find their sea legs under a new hierarchy.

 

It was nice to see some smarter decision making by the coaches today. I still get PO'd by all the defensive substituting. There are 5 to 10 plays a game where guys are running onto the field, out of position, talking, or like today again...just have 10 men on the field as the ball is snapped. Sometimes it's better just to line up your 11 prepared guys, and have them go at it.

 

They have been entertaining. That is my metric for this year. I do see them going in the right direction. I saw more out of Thad in one game that I liked than the composite of work by EJ so far. Be interesting to see if Thad can bring it against the Phins.

[Jsixspd]

So you're choosing to ignore the actual statistics in favor of your own made up ones? Got it.

 

 

 

 

The actual statistics are the Bills lost in overtime. Had the Bills converted the 3 points in the first half, the game would not have gone to overtime as the Bills would have had the lead at the end of regulation. That's the only statistics that are truly relevant.

 

What are the "made up statistics" exactly? The Marrone defenders seem to want to hang their hats on the fact that those 3 points might have caused both the Bills and the Bengals to play differently somehow, and some strange "Butterfly Effect" would have resulted from history being changed.

 

The next assumption is that "playing differently" would have been automatically to the benefit of the Bengals. I pointed out that quite the opposite might have been the case - the Bengals having a successful 4-down goalline stand might have invigorated and motivated the Bengals.

 

It's also possible had the Bills tied the game at that juncture, the Bengals would have lacked the momentum and fire to drive for a touchdown on their next possession. Perhaps the Bills win by 10 points at the end of regulation?

Edited October 14, 2013 by Jsixspd

[LGR4GM]

The actual statistics are the Bills lost in overtime. Had the Bills converted the 3 points in the first half, the game would not have gone to overtime as the Bills would have had the lead at the end of regulation. That's the only statistics that are truly relevant.

 

What are the "made up statistics" exactly? The Marrone defenders seem to want to hang their hats on the fact that those 3 points might have caused both the Bills and the Bengals to play differently somehow, and some strange "Butterfly Effect" would have resulted from history being changed.

 

The next assumption is that "playing differently" would have been automatically to the benefit of the Bengals. I pointed out that quite the opposite might have been the case - the Bengals having a successful 4-down goalline stand might have invigorated and motivated the Bengals.

 

It's also possible had the Bills tied the game at that juncture, the Bengals would have lacked the momentum and fire to drive for a touchdown on their next possession. Perhaps the Bills win by 10 points at the end of regulation?

Had the Bengals made their field goal from the 34 the game would not have gone to overtime and they would have won in regulation. See I can nitpick too.

[kishoph]

The actual statistics are the Bills lost in overtime. Had the Bills converted the 3 points in the first half, the game would not have gone to overtime as the Bills would have had the lead at the end of regulation. That's the only statistics that are truly relevant.

 

What are the "made up statistics" exactly? The Marrone defenders seem to want to hang their hats on the fact that those 3 points might have caused both the Bills and the Bengals to play differently somehow, and some strange "Butterfly Effect" would have resulted from history being changed.

 

The next assumption is that "playing differently" would have been automatically to the benefit of the Bengals. I pointed out that quite the opposite might have been the case - the Bengals having a successful 4-down goalline stand might have invigorated and motivated the Bengals.

 

It's also possible had the Bills tied the game at that juncture, the Bengals would have lacked the momentum and fire to drive for a touchdown on their next possession. Perhaps the Bills win by 10 points at the end of regulation?

 

 

 

You just can't say, if they would of kicked the FG, they would of won, because if they kicked that FG, they wouldn't of went on 4th and 8 from the Bengals 22 with 10:30 left (Chandler TD), down by 11, more than likely they would of kicked a FG to bring them within 8. It's no "butterfly effect." The play call down there on 4th down, might have not been the right call, but the decision to go for it was IMO.

 

To go along with all the injuries the Bills have suffered, all the defenses they have faced have been ranked in the top half of the league, including the 2nd, 3rd and 4th ranked defenses. This is a very young team and have been in the position to win every game this season, they are growing and will get much better.

[JJFIVEOH]

The actual statistics are the Bills lost in overtime. Had the Bills converted the 3 points in the first half, the game would not have gone to overtime as the Bills would have had the lead at the end of regulation. That's the only statistics that are truly relevant.

 

What are the "made up statistics" exactly? The Marrone defenders seem to want to hang their hats on the fact that those 3 points might have caused both the Bills and the Bengals to play differently somehow, and some strange "Butterfly Effect" would have resulted from history being changed.

 

The next assumption is that "playing differently" would have been automatically to the benefit of the Bengals. I pointed out that quite the opposite might have been the case - the Bengals having a successful 4-down goalline stand might have invigorated and motivated the Bengals.

 

It's also possible had the Bills tied the game at that juncture, the Bengals would have lacked the momentum and fire to drive for a touchdown on their next possession. Perhaps the Bills win by 10 points at the end of regulation?

 

We get it, you hate BFLO sports and you'll look for every opportunity to trash them.

[SwampD]

I didn't know if I should put this here or in the Breaking Bad thread. Kiko sounds just like Walter White's son.

http://jimrome.com/2013/10/17/kiko-alonso/

[Jsixspd]

Has anyone been watching Fitzpatrick playing for the Tennessee Titans while Jake Locker is sidelined with an injury? I have friends with a relative playing for the Titans, and they have Direct TV Sunday Ticket. So I've been watching both the Bills games and the Titans games at their home.

 

The Titans looked very impressive for the first 4 games with Jake Locker, and were 3-1 with only an OT loss against Houston. But they've stank with Fitzpatrick in the pocket - in his two games, the Titans have managed only a putrid 23 points of total offense. His passer rating - 57 in the first game, and a squalid 46 in the 2nd game. I thought perhaps Fitzpatrick would look better playing behind a superior offensive line, but it's the same old same old with him - bad throws, stupid interceptions, etc. The Titans offense has nose-dived with him running the offense.

 

Fitzpatrick STILL had his backers when the BIlls finally got rid of him - but I would think his reeking performance with the Titans would finally end those delusions once and for all.

 

What's astonishing to me - how did or could anyone sane have ever thought this guy was gonna be the "Franchise QB" for Buffalo?? - particularly guys like Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey, who were supposedly professional "Football guys" who are compensated HANDSOMELY to know more about football then some guy like me?

 

Why couldn't they see what anyone else could see? I looked at Fitzpatrick's record when the Bills first signed him and I was like "You gotta be kidding me???" Even the squalid RAMS didn't want him - for cryin out loud! But at that time he was just a backup which was bad enough- then the Bills "annointed" him as the starter, because he was a warm body and they needed somebody and Ralph Wilson is cheap and that's basically it. He's second-string backup caliber at best. He's the kind of guy you bring in when your team has a big lead late in the game, and you want to protect your good starting QB - he can come in, throw some check downs, hand off for the run, and move the chains a few times and eat up some clock.

 

And Buddy Nix... for some inexplicable reason he finally realized after years of this guy as QB that they needed to draft a QB - one would have thought he'd realize that after watching Fitzpatrick play one or two games - but then because he'd delayed, he missed some good QB classes and ended up drafting from a so-so QB class.

 

The stupidity of the Bills management and coaching is showcased by the inept performance of Ryan Fitzpatrick playing behind a much better Titans offensive line.

 

You just can't say, if they would of kicked the FG, they would of won, because if they kicked that FG, they wouldn't of went on 4th and 8 from the Bengals 22 with 10:30 left (Chandler TD), down by 11, more than likely they would of kicked a FG to bring them within 8. It's no "butterfly effect." The play call down there on 4th down, might have not been the right call, but the decision to go for it was IMO.

 

To go along with all the injuries the Bills have suffered, all the defenses they have faced have been ranked in the top half of the league, including the 2nd, 3rd and 4th ranked defenses. This is a very young team and have been in the position to win every game this season, they are growing and will get much better.

 

Yeah, and lemme guess - they provide some "exciting games" to watch. Well, they did for years with J.P. Loseman, and then Spent Deadwards, and then Ryan Blitzpatrick. There were entertaining games to watch in that mix..... but they were still solid sub-500 records. And that's what this year's Bills are working on right now.

Edited October 19, 2013 by Jsixspd

[Wyldnwoody44]

Its amazing how injuries affect the bills every freaking year.... Idk if conditioning is an issue or if it's just terrible luck, but honestly.... Starting QB, both running backs, basically our whole secondary, 2 first string WR.... A kicker, and the list goes on and on. I know injuries are a part of the game and every team has them, but we seem to be ravaged by them to the point where outcomes of games are affected.

 

I didn't see the bills being a playoff team this year, but I honestly feel that If we were remotely healthy then we'd be at least a. 500 team, maybe even 4-2 right now.

 

Changes are happening and although statistically we aren't lighting it up, this team at least makes most games exciting, unlike our other sports team.... Finally a rebuild the way it should be done, just somehow need to find a way to stay healthier

[wjag]

Brilliant way to start..

[Wyldnwoody44]

That doesn't look good for freddy, he dropped quick grabbing that already injured knee

[wjag]

What a sweet start.

[Jsixspd]

Terrible play calls by the offensive coordinator!

[Wyldnwoody44]

And here is where we start looking like the typical bills.... We never go for the throat when we have the chance.

 

All this talk about the terrible o line for Miami and no rushing game, and they look just fine.... Let's hope we stop this momentum swing

[Wyldnwoody44]

Terrible play calling with 2 minutes in the half.... Kill 20 seconds and give them 3 timeouts and all the time in the world..... Oh and let's put the guy with the giant club on against their fastest receiver in that situation..... Not to mention Zero pressure at all...... Frustrating

[TrueBlueGED]

Our offensive line is not good. Looks like it's time to draft fat guys again.

 

Terrible play calling with 2 minutes in the half.... Kill 20 seconds and give them 3 timeouts and all the time in the world..... Oh and let's put the guy with the giant club on against their fastest receiver in that situation..... Not to mention Zero pressure at all...... Frustrating

 

On the bright side, the fins' play calling has been just as bad.