Pominville to Minnesota Wild UPDATE: offered extension.

[nfreeman]

I agree with your assessment that Pommer's game is a little better suited when he's on the 2 line, plus the lower 2 line minutes would allow him to be more fresh for the PK, I really believe that there is a consistent misconception among many on what dollar amounts are the correct pricing for a particular player. Presumably Pommer would still be scoring more than 20 goals a season from the #2 RW position. Basically he'd be in the top 60 wingers as there would be bad teams whos #1 winger wouldn't be as good as he is.

 

For reference, here are some recent wingers between 28 and 32 who signed at about $3.5M:

 

Justin Williams

Troy Brouwer

Joel Ward

 

Looking at the list at that number, the only winger in that range that stands out as on the same level as pommer is Kunitz. With him, nearly everyone acknowledges that even though his scoring is less than Pommer, despite having a much better centerman, he is a steal at $3.75M, especially for a 2 time SC champ.

 

Your points about comparables are reasonable as always, and I don't have much to add to the whole concept of the comparables analysis beyond what I've already said, except for this: ideally, Pommer would be my #2 RW -- and I don't want to pay my #2 RW much more than $3.5MM per year. I guess what I'm saying is that if I want an elite offense like the Sabres used to have, I need to have a couple of really good contract deals among my top 6 forwards.

 

I can't believe we're arguing about whether Pominville is a top line player. He's a 1st liner on at least half the teams in the league. Is he an elite player? No. Do you want him to be the best player on your top line (and thus, best forward)? No. Can he be the best RW on a Cup-winning team? Maybe, maybe not. But that doesn't mean he's not a 1st line player.

 

I also agree with LPF (sorry, I refuse to acknowledge the name change :P) that people's expectations about pay/performance are totally out of whack more often than not.

 

Geez, sorry for disturbing you. I thought I was allowed to want the Sabres to have as good and deep an offense as they used to have.

 

I disagree. Brett Hull and Brendan Shanahan were elite, and they did pretty much the same thing. They found the soft spots in the defense so that when the pass came they could get a great shot off without interference. Going back quite a few years, I seem to remember Rick Martin having that same kind of method.

 

This is really apples and oranges. Hull and Shanny both had so much more game than Pommer does.

[LastPommerFan]

Your points about comparables are reasonable as always, and I don't have much to add to the whole concept of the comparables analysis beyond what I've already said, except for this: ideally, Pommer would be my #2 RW -- and I don't want to pay my #2 RW much more than $3.5MM per year. I guess what I'm saying is that if I want an elite offense like the Sabres used to have, I need to have a couple of really good contract deals among my top 6 forwards.

 

I think the Droids you may be looking for are the 2nd contract RFAs that can score around 25 goals. Excatly what Pommer was in 06-07. The up-side to this is that you get a cap deal. The downside is that it's easy to ID Pommer now as a 25 goal scorer, it was a lot harder to do that in 2007.

[TrueBlueGED]

Your points about comparables are reasonable as always, and I don't have much to add to the whole concept of the comparables analysis beyond what I've already said, except for this: ideally, Pommer would be my #2 RW -- and I don't want to pay my #2 RW much more than $3.5MM per year. I guess what I'm saying is that if I want an elite offense like the Sabres used to have, I need to have a couple of really good contract deals among my top 6 forwards.

 

Geez, sorry for disturbing you. I thought I was allowed to want the Sabres to have as good and deep an offense as they used to have.

 

I'm not offended, I'm something much more severe than that :P

 

Seriously though, my point was that unless you signed your 2RW five years ago or he's a young guy with a contract eating only 1-2 UFA years, you cannot pay him $3.5 million and have as deep an offense as we used to. They are mutually exclusive at this point.

[Dannepanne]

Is this the new version of "Kassian to vancouver..."? = Endless diskussion

[TrueBlueGED]

I think the Droids you may be looking for are the 2nd contract RFAs that can score around 25 goals. Excatly what Pommer was in 06-07. The up-side to this is that you get a cap deal. The downside is that it's easy to ID Pommer now as a 25 goal scorer, it was a lot harder to do that in 2007.

 

The ironic thing is Pommer was overpaid at the time of the deal, but with the contract inflation we've seen his contract now is quite good and I'd argue close to the very bargain Freeman wants.

[nfreeman]

 

 

I'm not offended, I'm something much more severe than that :P

 

Seriously though, my point was that unless you signed your 2RW five years ago or he's a young guy with a contract eating only 1-2 UFA years, you cannot pay him $3.5 million and have as deep an offense as we used to. They are mutually exclusive at this point.

 

But they did sign him 5 years ago.

[TrueBlueGED]

But they did sign him 5 years ago.

 

Right. At the time and for a few years afterwards, I thought Pommer was overpaid and that was partially due to the team overcompensating to the events of Black Sunday. However, Pommer's pay is in line with what he brings (and I'd argue he makes less than what he could) and with the contract inflation which has taken place over the past couple of seasons, your ideal 2nd line winger at $3.5 million to give the Sabres 05-07 style depth does not exist anymore--it's an artifact of the past and should have no basis on the team's current salary structure.

[nfreeman]

Right. At the time and for a few years afterwards, I thought Pommer was overpaid and that was partially due to the team overcompensating to the events of Black Sunday. However, Pommer's pay is in line with what he brings (and I'd argue he makes less than what he could) and with the contract inflation which has taken place over the past couple of seasons, your ideal 2nd line winger at $3.5 million to give the Sabres 05-07 style depth does not exist anymore--it's an artifact of the past and should have no basis on the team's current salary structure.

 

Well, in my ideal world, Pommer is about the #4 forward on the team in terms of ice time and compensation.

 

Also in my ideal world, people would introduce data to back up their assertions. So here are the 4th-highest-paid forwards from the top 4 teams in each conference:

 

Chicago -- Hossa -- $5.275MM -- only a drop less $$ than Pommer but Hossa is a much better player.

 

Anaheim -- Selanne -- $4.5MM -- less than Pommer; Selanne has been a bit better than Pommer for the last few years but Pommer may be a bit better this year.

 

Vancouver -- Booth -- $4.25MM -- he's missed most of the year with injuries; when healthy he's a tougher player than Pommer but not as offensively productive

 

Kings -- Justin Williams -- $3.625MM -- this is actually a pretty good comparable. He's fairly productive (and consistently so), albeit a bit less than Pommer, but is more physical.

 

Pittsburgh -- James Neal -- $5MM -- clearly better than Pommer, and makes a bit less. Younger, bigger and more productive.

 

Montreal -- Rene Bourque -- $3.33MM -- not nearly as good as Pommer

 

Washington -- tie -- Erat and Laich -- $4.5MM -- Erat is also a good comparable to Pommer -- good, consistent, productive 2-way winger. Laich, not so much -- he's more of a #3 center that the Caps overpaid to keep when he was a UFA.

 

Boston -- Lucic -- $4.1MM this year, raise to $6MM next year -- not as productive as Pommer over the long term, but still had 30 and 26 goals in the last 2 years (when Pommer had 30 and 22). I suspect most GMs and fans would rather have Lucic, although some would prefer Pommer.

 

I think the above shows that the better teams are getting more bang for their #4 forward buck.

[LastPommerFan]

Well, in my ideal world, Pommer is about the #4 forward on the team in terms of ice time and compensation.

 

Also in my ideal world, people would introduce data to back up their assertions. So here are the 4th-highest-paid forwards from the top 4 teams in each conference:

 

Chicago -- Hossa -- $5.275MM -- only a drop less $$ than Pommer but Hossa is a much better player.

 

Anaheim -- Selanne -- $4.5MM -- less than Pommer; Selanne has been a bit better than Pommer for the last few years but Pommer may be a bit better this year.

 

Vancouver -- Booth -- $4.25MM -- he's missed most of the year with injuries; when healthy he's a tougher player than Pommer but not as offensively productive

 

Kings -- Justin Williams -- $3.625MM -- this is actually a pretty good comparable. He's fairly productive (and consistently so), albeit a bit less than Pommer, but is more physical.

 

Pittsburgh -- James Neal -- $5MM -- clearly better than Pommer, and makes a bit less. Younger, bigger and more productive.

 

Montreal -- Rene Bourque -- $3.33MM -- not nearly as good as Pommer

 

Washington -- tie -- Erat and Laich -- $4.5MM -- Erat is also a good comparable to Pommer -- good, consistent, productive 2-way winger. Laich, not so much -- he's more of a #3 center that the Caps overpaid to keep when he was a UFA.

 

Boston -- Lucic -- $4.1MM this year, raise to $6MM next year -- not as productive as Pommer over the long term, but still had 30 and 26 goals in the last 2 years (when Pommer had 30 and 22). I suspect most GMs and fans would rather have Lucic, although some would prefer Pommer.

 

I think the above shows that the better teams are getting more bang for their #4 forward buck.

 

I think in the last contract they overpaid Pominville by about $800k. $4.5 would have been a good deal back then, and $4.25 would have been a steal.

 

I don't think james neal can qualify as "clearly better" than pommer. He was more productive in one season, and he plays with the two best centers in the game. He may be marginally better, maybe.

 

Justin Williams is significantly less productive than Pommer (nearly the same points, Pommer has 175 fewer games) is terribly inconsistent due to injury (a real factor in guaranteed contracts) and was coming off of 3 consecutive seasons where he played fewer than 50 games. He's a deal now, but his contract circumstances were a significant outlier.

 

Selanne is on a one year contract at age 42, so this past year, where he is WAY less productive than Pommer, is the only one worth comparing.

 

Hossa's contract is a deal right now, but it is massively backloaded and will bite the hawks in the end when they pay the new cap-advantage recapture under the new CBA. He's not playing the last 4 years of that contract for $1M at age 38-42. Also, from a points perspective (the #1 determining factor in all top-6 NHL contracts with few exceptions) they are actually about even over the last 5 years.

 

 

All this is to say, $4.5M would have been a better number at the time than $5.3M for pommer, but $3.5 is way too low.

[shrader]

I don't think james neal can qualify as "clearly better" than pommer. He was more productive in one season, and he plays with the two best centers in the game. He may be marginally better, maybe.

 

This and other stuff from the post makes me think that we should be looking at production relative to the rest of the team vs. production relative to the rest of the league. Neal is the perfect example.

[qwksndmonster]

A point that True brought up that isn't being considered enough is the contract inflation. The contracts being signed these days are absurd, and the only way to get a deal is with younger guys. Wanting to have a playing like Pommer for 3.5 is just not gonna happen these days (Nick Foligno got a 3M a year contract last year).

[Eleven]

Word from Saint Paul is that Pommer is hurt.

[Marvelo]

Word from Saint Paul is that Pommer is hurt.

 

what's the story?

[X. Benedict]

what's the story?

Elbow from Brown.

 

[spndnchz]

 

Elbow from Brown.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=_R-X_ko8Fm4

Suspended.

[Marvelo]

thanks for the clip. ouch! concussion?

[ROC Sabres]

Damn. Was that blood shooting out of his mouth on his way down?

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Damn. Was that blood shooting out of his mouth on his way down?

 

Good eye.....but it was probably that oral fixation of his where he's diddling on that mouthpiece all night......has red in it......

[bunomatic]

was Brown suspended ?

[qwksndmonster]

Damn. Was that blood shooting out of his mouth on his way down?

I can't tell if it was blood or just the red part of the boards. It looks like it's coming out of his mouth, but there's none after he falls below the boards.

[X. Benedict]

was Brown suspended ?

 

No on-ice penalty. we'll have to see if B.Shanahan weighs in.

[Eleven]

I doubt a suspension for LA's captain who (I believe) never has been suspended before.

 

BTW, there is some criticism of Minnesota for not reacting / going after Brown, etc.: http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/204413461.html

[X. Benedict]

I doubt a suspension for LA's captain who (I believe) never has been suspended before.

 

BTW, there is some criticism of Minnesota for not reacting / going after Brown, etc.: http://www.startribu.../204413461.html

 

I think nothing for a suspension. If it was first week of season it might be 3 or 4 games.

I don't think there is any way they bench Brown for the first round.

[LGR4GM]

... So Kaleta's "hit" on Richards is worth 5 games but this isn't suspension-able... Shenanigans is a giant f###tard if he does nothing, that was a blatant elbow to the face.

[dudacek]

Pretty clearly a deliberate elbow to the head. Can't see how they spin it any other way.

Just because players are taught to bring their elbows up to protect themselves doesn't excuse it as a hockey play.

I'm with LGR. It was deliberate, dangerous and to the head. Brown made a choice he did not have to make.

It is exactly like Kaleta and Richards.