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2013-2014 Roster Projection Thoughts


qwksndmonster

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Posted

If Vanek has not signed and extension by the deadline, unless we are a cup favorite, he goes. No use losing him for nothing when the shot of us actually winning the Stanley Cup next year of slim to none.

Posted

I think there are trade partners but not sure there is a trade. Still think they think they are closer to good and they will be able to convince Vanek to stay.

 

And I think that's why he hasn't been traded yet. I think Darcy has probably entertained offers, just for the sake of seeing who could be interested down the line. I agree, if they manage to look promising for the near future that Vanek could stay. It wouldn't surprise me if that's what Vanek and Darcy have already talked about with each other.

Posted

Except Foligno is missing and will be integral to the rebuild and Flynn isn't a fourth line center

 

you say!....Maybe he thinks Foligno gets traded ! and Flynn is anything you need him to be .I think he fits right in to what the Sabres have on the ice as a product skill wise...with a couple of exceptions . We are talking ahl hockey here. lol His post was one of those rare ones that is actually entertaining to read in my humble opinion.

Posted

 

 

you say!....Maybe he thinks Foligno gets traded ! and Flynn is anything you need him to be .I think he fits right in to what the Sabres have on the ice as a product skill wise...with a couple of exceptions . We are talking ahl hockey here. lol His post was one of those rare ones that is actually entertaining to read in my humble opinion.

 

Think you both forgot Foligno and you aren't willing to admit it

Posted

Hockey Abstract has us projected to finish 2013-14 second to last among the 30 teams (next to Calgary) with 72 points using a calculation of the luck-neutral standings, adjusted for roster changes. Four (Ottawa, Detroit, Montreal, Boston) of the NE Division teams projected to finish in the league's top 10 with 94+ points.

 

This season could get rough, unless we get lucky or get a large amount of surprise talent from several players. The upside is that what is calculated to be "luck" has a surprisingly large effect on the final standings, whereas, if we were to get little lucky with one goal games, OT/SO games, and injuries, we could squeeze out 85 points, good for 18th. Or luck could fall the other way, and we go right through the ###### basement.

Posted

lol... you win.. i did...and he is too big to forget

Speaking of Foligno, what are reasonable expectations for the 23 year old power forward for this season? He has only played 61 games, and for some reason it seems like he has played more.

 

Here is a kid that seemingly has all the tools and attributes to be an impact player in the league and he is in the final year of his entry level contract. Considering the roster as it is constituted, if he doesn't get a good amount of top six minutes it will be disappointing.

Posted

Speaking of Foligno, what are reasonable expectations for the 23 year old power forward for this season? He has only played 61 games, and for some reason it seems like he has played more.

 

Here is a kid that seemingly has all the tools and attributes to be an impact player in the league and he is in the final year of his entry level contract. Considering the roster as it is constituted, if he doesn't get a good amount of top six minutes it will be disappointing.

My expectations for Foligno is that he'll bring more consistency to his physical game, and score a few more dirty girls than he did last year. If he keeps dangling every time he gets the puck then I at least want it to go somewhere. I'd much rather have him become our next Ott than Stafford.

Posted

 

Speaking of Foligno, what are reasonable expectations for the 23 year old power forward for this season? He has only played 61 games, and for some reason it seems like he has played more.

 

Here is a kid that seemingly has all the tools and attributes to be an impact player in the league and he is in the final year of his entry level contract. Considering the roster as it is constituted, if he doesn't get a good amount of top six minutes it will be disappointing.

 

I like the kid but unless he really shows me something this year I think he might settle back to his projected ceiling.

Posted

Rolston seems to believe he should be a top six player and a could be a legitimate elite power forward.

Hes a long way from his peak and I am still a believer. If he is banging bodies, everything else should fall into place.

Posted

My expectations for Foligno is that he'll bring more consistency to his physical game, and score a few more dirty girls than he did last year. If he keeps dangling every time he gets the puck then I at least want it to go somewhere. I'd much rather have him become our next Ott than Stafford.

 

Ummm,

 

And this will help his game?

Posted

Statistical expectations for possible incoming non-NHLers on an 82 game season, based on NHL equivalency methods:

Armia ~30 points

Ristolainen ~11 points

Girgensons ~10 points

McCabe ~17 points

Larsson ~22 points

McNabb ~21 points (this time around)

 

 

Point expectations calculated by this method for recent entries, based on their previous non-NHL experience, accounting for the number of games played:

Pysyk expected to earn 3 points, earned 5.

Grigorenko expected to earn 11 points, earned 5.

Foligno expected to earn 16 points, earned 18.

McNabb expected to earn 7 points, earned 8 (last time).

Tropp expected to earn 9 points, earned 8.

 

Seems like this method isn't too far off, with the exception of Grogorenko, whom I believe was under-/mis-used, resulting in an effective skew of his games played.

 

Oh, and in case anyone gives a ######, here's the NHL equivalency chart, modifiers of the points per game stat:

Russian Super League 0.83

Czech Republic League 0.74

Swedish Elite League 0.78

Finland SM-Liiga 0.54

AHL/IHL 0.44

Switzerland National League 0.43

Deutsche Eishockey League 0.52

NCAA0.41

Canadian Major Juniors 0.29

 

So for example, if Armia scores 100pts in 149 games in SM-Liiga, you might expect he should score 0.54 times as much in the NHL, or 0.54*100/149*82 = 29.7 points. I thought it was interesting to see the different "strengths" of the leagues compared.

Posted

Thanks.

 

I've been reading Vollman's book on the application of advanced statistics for hockey. As expected, the prose isn't riveting, but the concepts are thought provoking.

 

For some perspective, expected point totals for 82 games using the above method:

 

First five picks in 2013:

MacKinnon 41 points.

Barkov 40 points.

Drouin between 39 and 51 points (he had a crazy year in Halifax this past year).

Jones 22 points.

Lindholm 40 points.

 

Sabres 2013 picks:

Ristolainen 11 points

Zadorov 9 points

Compher 23-27 points (maybe less, if the USNTDP/USHL is considerably shittier than major juniors).

Hurley 17 points (maybe less, if the USNTDP/USHL is considerably shittier than major juniors).

Bailey 15 points

Baptiste 17 points

Possler (not enough data)

Florentino (not enough data)

Malone 21 points (maybe less, if the USNTDP/USHL is considerably shittier than major juniors).

Locke 25-34 points (tore up OHL last year)

Posted

Interesting data Physics.

 

As for Foligno, I expect him to begin rounding out his game this year and fitting in nicely as a solid 2nd line winger. He has some flashes of dipsy dangles but he needs to focus more on being physical and driving hard to the net. His power game is impressive as is and I want that developing. I'd be thoroughly satisfied if Foligno had a 40-45pt season and 225hits in 82 games.

Posted

Interesting data Physics.

 

As for Foligno, I expect him to begin rounding out his game this year and fitting in nicely as a solid 2nd line winger. He has some flashes of dipsy dangles but he needs to focus more on being physical and driving hard to the net. His power game is impressive as is and I want that developing. I'd be thoroughly satisfied if Foligno had a 40-45pt season and 225hits in 82 games.

 

I think you are setting yourself up for disappointment. Foligno was never projected to be a 2nd line winger.

 

I know Rolston said all kinds of things about him having the ability to be a top power forward in the league. I don't take that comment at face value.

Posted

I think you are setting yourself up for disappointment. Foligno was never projected to be a 2nd line winger.

 

I know Rolston said all kinds of things about him having the ability to be a top power forward in the league. I don't take that comment at face value.

 

Correct. He's a third- or even fourth-liner on other teams.

 

The Sabres might have the worst roster in the league right now.

Posted

 

 

Correct. He's a third- or even fourth-liner on other teams.

 

The Sabres might have the worst roster in the league right now.

 

Which is sort of a blessing in disguise. Having a roster this bad means our young players should have no trouble cracking the lineup if they appear to be ready. There's no log jam.

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