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2013 NHL Entry Draft: Buffalo Sabres Select...

LGR4GM

By LGR4GM
in The Aud Club

Jones or MacKinnon  

127 members have voted

  1. 1. Which would you draft given the 1st overall pick?

    • Seth Jones
      18
    • Nathan MacKinnon
      68
    • Jonathan Drouin
      22

  2. 2. Who do you think the Sabres should draft at #8 overall?

    • Sean Monahan
      10
    • Elias Lindholm
      7
    • Valeri Nichushkin
      10
    • Ristolainen/Nurse/Zadarov/Other defender
      0
    • Zach Fucale
      2
    • Other, please post name
      5

Recommended Posts

qwksndmonster All Star

qwksndmonster

Posted
Posted

We've got nothing good to work with....Lindy's gone, Darcy's entrenched, Terry's confused, the fanbase is on autopilot......at least in the good old days we could count on Tallinder to participate in a Swedish Pyramid, or get a gratuitous crotch shot from Roysie........

 

A friend of mine the other day said the best thing I've heard in a while.....the people associated with Pegula have known him for so long...why didn't they make Kim the figurehead of the team and let her deal with the public? Terry could still have been in on all the meetings, but she's a slick lady.....in a good way. Imagine....a woman owner.....someone with ties, who could brush off the pressure with her charm and cuteness.....it would have been awesome.

Aud needs new shorts.

North Buffalo All Star

North Buffalo

Posted
Posted

 

NHL Rumors: Carolina Hurricanes may trade No. 5 pick at NHL Draft: http://www.cbssports...ck-at-nhl-draft

 

Interesting but like everything else out there it might be a smoke screen just to see what they can get. The article got me thinking, so I went on the NHL website and they had an interesting list of the best 1st round draft picks at each position in the history of the draft. The list is not near complete. That being said, I googled a search of Sabres draft picks over the years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Buffalo_Sabres_draft_picks

 

Geez, they have missed badly a lot in the first round quite a few times, other guys they have obviously done really well on. The history of 1st rounders success is very mixed for the Sabres.

 

Interetingly, every couple of years they seem to find a guy or two in the later rounds that turns out to be really good, though not many. Are all drafts a crap shoot like this or is this just the Sabres incompetence?

 

I guess I would have to look at other teams and try and evaluate their first round picks to see. A summer time statistical analysis might be in order by one of you math wizards as to the value of past successes in the first round by team with some weight given towards position in the draft.

 

A side analysis of relative successes of teams later round draft picks might be interesting too. Ah crap my head is spinning. Still an interesting thought.

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted

 

NHL Rumors: Carolina Hurricanes may trade No. 5 pick at NHL Draft: http://www.cbssports...ck-at-nhl-draft

 

Look up like seven posts. I already posed that. :P

 

I think Armia, Girgensons, Larsson and McNabb are all going to be have a REALLY good shot at making the team. I'd say Armia is a near lock to make the team.

Weave Hall of Famer

Weave

Posted
Posted

Interesting but like everything else out there it might be a smoke screen just to see what they can get. The article got me thinking, so I went on the NHL website and they had an interesting list of the best 1st round draft picks at each position in the history of the draft. The list is not near complete. That being said, I googled a search of Sabres draft picks over the years. https://en.wikipedia...res_draft_picks

 

Geez, they have missed badly a lot in the first round quite a few times, other guys they have obviously done really well on. The history of 1st rounders success is very mixed for the Sabres.

 

Interetingly, every couple of years they seem to find a guy or two in the later rounds that turns out to be really good, though not many. Are all drafts a crap shoot like this or is this just the Sabres incompetence?

 

I guess I would have to look at other teams and try and evaluate their first round picks to see. A summer time statistical analysis might be in order by one of you math wizards as to the value of past successes in the first round by team with some weight given towards position in the draft.

 

A side analysis of relative successes of teams later round draft picks might be interesting too. Ah crap my head is spinning. Still an interesting thought.

 

Other folks online have already done the math. Overall, 1st rounders succeed in the NHL at about a 63% rate but if you take out the top 10 picks (the most skilled by far) the odds drop a good bit. Top 5 picks have an almost can't miss rate of success. Once you get into the middle of the 1st round a draft pick has about a 50/50 chance of turning into a player with an NHL career. 2nd round chances drop to about half that. 3rd rounders have a touch more than 10% success rate. It gets really low after that.

carpandean First Liner

carpandean

Posted
Posted

Interesting but like everything else out there it might be a smoke screen just to see what they can get. The article got me thinking, so I went on the NHL website and they had an interesting list of the best 1st round draft picks at each position in the history of the draft. The list is not near complete. That being said, I googled a search of Sabres draft picks over the years. https://en.wikipedia...res_draft_picks

 

Geez, they have missed badly a lot in the first round quite a few times, other guys they have obviously done really well on. The history of 1st rounders success is very mixed for the Sabres.

 

Interetingly, every couple of years they seem to find a guy or two in the later rounds that turns out to be really good, though not many. Are all drafts a crap shoot like this or is this just the Sabres incompetence?

 

I guess I would have to look at other teams and try and evaluate their first round picks to see. A summer time statistical analysis might be in order by one of you math wizards as to the value of past successes in the first round by team with some weight given towards position in the draft.

 

A side analysis of relative successes of teams later round draft picks might be interesting too. Ah crap my head is spinning. Still an interesting thought.

 

Problem is that there is usually more change in player level within the top 10 than there is between 10 and the end of the second round. The Sabres almost never draft high enough to be in the one area where it isn't a total crap-shoot (obviously, every pick is, but the very top picks almost always work out.); they draft middle to end of the first, where you have to project out 3+ years. Picking 8 in a very deep draft is about as certain as they've picked since Vanek's year. 16, on the other hand, is already in "crap shoot" land.

 

Edit: Weave beat me to it.

inkman Hall of Famer

inkman

Posted
Posted

 

 

Look up like seven posts. I already posed that. :P

 

I think Armia, Girgensons, Larsson and McNabb are all going to be have a REALLY good shot at making the team. I'd say Armia is a near lock to make the team.

The reason any of those guys gets a shot at the NHL, is because last year they were filled out with the Flynns and Porters of the world.

North Buffalo All Star

North Buffalo

Posted
Posted

Other folks online have already done the math. Overall, 1st rounders succeed in the NHL at about a 63% rate but if you take out the top 10 picks (the most skilled by far) the odds drop a good bit. Top 5 picks have an almost can't miss rate of success. Once you get into the middle of the 1st round a draft pick has about a 50/50 chance of turning into a player with an NHL career. 2nd round chances drop to about half that. 3rd rounders have a touch more than 10% success rate. It gets really low after that.

 

Hmm, I guess I was thinking about more of a comparison between teams success rates. I saw that work. Guess I wasn't clear. Are certain teams more successful at drafting than others, a retrospective look. Both in the first round and later rounds. More a comparison, not an overall success rate. I guess you would have to weight then by GM and later round players might have to be rated by development system. Not sure, changes in any of these would have to be accounted for and I am not sure how you would weight them.

 

Still and overall success rate by team might be interesting to look at.

 

Also, with the potentia emergence of Isaakson, are there any other young high school centers that have caught people's eye that would be worth taking a flyer on in the 7 round?

 

Only high schooler jumping out on the rankings based on pts is this guy: http://www.nhl.com/i...ption&year=2013 Avery Peterson. There are a couple of other USA prospects including the younger brother of two draft picks that played his first year at Denver, but was not the huge scorer Isaacson was in high school.

Robviously First Liner

Robviously

Posted
Posted

The reason any of those guys gets a shot at the NHL, is because last year they were filled out with the Flynns and Porters of the world.

Not really. All of those players were drafted in the first three rounds and each is older than 20 (except Girgensons). This is about when you'd expect them to get their shots in the NHL.

bunomatic All Star

bunomatic

Posted
Posted

1. If we knew what was going to happen it wouldn't be much fun to talk about.

 

2. Fan opinions on the draft, even if they're based on reading scouting reports, often turn out to be pretty accurate. The Bills would be a better team now if they'd crowd sourced their last 15 drafts.

 

3. The draft is the one day a year when fans of every team can feel good about their team. And if you're a Buffalo fan, it's pretty much the only day you get to feel good anymore.

 

Don't get me wrong. The reason I said can't wait for draft day to come and go is I love watching the first round. I don't think I've missed one in the last 20 years. This one brings more anticipation than usual because of the sabres stated desire to make something happen but this thread is much like the trade deadline thread in that its kind of like throwing shite at the wall to see if it sticks. All you have to do is read Bob MacKenzies list and switch 7 for 8 and or 10 for 9 and see if you hit. There's a reason all these lists are remarkably similar.

dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

Posted
Posted

What if the Sabres drafted Lindholm and Horvat. They would have a pair of hard working Selke candidates. These are the type of tanacious players championships are built around.

 

I would forgive Darcy everything if we pulled that off.

 

FWIW Garth (we can quote him, but not Eklund, right?) is talking Miller and Stafford to Edmonton for 7 and a prospect.

inkman Hall of Famer

inkman

Posted
Posted

 

 

I would forgive Darcy everything if we pulled that off.

 

FWIW Garth (we can quote him, but not Eklund, right?) is talking Miller and Stafford to Edmonton for 7 and a prospect.

That doesn't seem likely

Weave Hall of Famer

Weave

Posted
Posted

I would forgive Darcy everything if we pulled that off.

 

FWIW Garth (we can quote him, but not Eklund, right?) is talking Miller and Stafford to Edmonton for 7 and a prospect.

 

I had a dream last night. A happy dream.....

rakish Third Liner

rakish

Posted
Posted

A few charts on where players were drafted, Buffalo, Boston, and Chicago. The blue dots are games played per year. Green dots are average games played per year for that draft slot

post-2405-0-69018100-1371925444_thumb.png

post-2405-0-33076900-1371925477_thumb.png

post-2405-0-83017800-1371925497_thumb.png

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted

What about:

Miller & Stafford for 7th pick, prospect, and Hemsky.

 

In theory Miller for 7th and prospect and Stafford & Hemsky swap merely for a change of scenery.

 

And then we can either buyout Hemsky or use him for the final year of his deal.

 

A deal centered around Miller could take many forms, I think.

 

Miller and 16 for 7 and a prospect.

Miller and Stafford for 7 and a mid-level prospect.

 

Only way I see a Stafford for Hemsky swap happening is:

Stafford and 8 for Hemsky and 7.

darksabre Hall of Famer

darksabre

Posted
Posted

Anyone trying to trade Stafford needs to include something else coming from us to sweeten the deal for the team that has to deal with his awful contract and subpar performance. We'd have to give them more just to make up for the fact that we want them to take Stafford off of our hands.

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted

Anyone trying to trade Stafford needs to include something else coming from us to sweeten the deal for the team that has to deal with his awful contract and subpar performance. We'd have to give them more just to make up for the fact that we want them to take Stafford off of our hands.

 

Yea, that's the idea of including Miller/taking back Hemsky's terrible contract.

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted

If he's there at 16, Anthony Mantha would be an AMAZING pick. I think he's JUST outside of the range at 8, but a trade up from 16 could land him.

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