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2013 NHL Entry Draft: Buffalo Sabres Select...

LGR4GM

By LGR4GM
in The Aud Club

Jones or MacKinnon  

127 members have voted

  1. 1. Which would you draft given the 1st overall pick?

    • Seth Jones
      18
    • Nathan MacKinnon
      68
    • Jonathan Drouin
      22

  2. 2. Who do you think the Sabres should draft at #8 overall?

    • Sean Monahan
      10
    • Elias Lindholm
      7
    • Valeri Nichushkin
      10
    • Ristolainen/Nurse/Zadarov/Other defender
      0
    • Zach Fucale
      2
    • Other, please post name
      5

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dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

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Domi wouldn't bother me as he plays with an edge

See, this is what some people miss. Its the fight in the dog, and all that.

dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

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You just invited the Gerbe fan club to come out of hiding :(

 

Yeah, better remind them that the dog needs to be able to outskate and outshoot his opponents and actually make plays.

LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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Just did a post on Darnell Nurse, who I'm obviously a HUGE fan of: http://sabresoftomor...ospect-profile/

 

And yes, I do think Nurse will be the better pro than Jones in the end. Oh, and he's Dan Catenacci's teammate.

I am just tossing this out there... You say "Nurse would add to the many recent top draft picks Buffalo has used on the back end, but he would easily be the best of the group." Tyler Myers was drafted in 2008 so I would consider him recent top draft picks. That being said you are basically saying that Darnelle Nurse is and will be better than Tyler Myers. That is bold and something even after seeing Myers struggle I don't agree with. Nurse may be one day but that is a day many years away.

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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I am just tossing this out there... You say "Nurse would add to the many recent top draft picks Buffalo has used on the back end, but he would easily be the best of the group." Tyler Myers was drafted in 2008 so I would consider him recent top draft picks. That being said you are basically saying that Darnelle Nurse is and will be better than Tyler Myers. That is bold and something even after seeing Myers struggle I don't agree with. Nurse may be one day but that is a day many years away.

 

Yea. I guess we disagree on that opinion. I think Nurse will be better than Myers.

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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Defensemen you start this way, IMO: Nurse has a good chance of making an NHL roster someday.

 

I don't understand what you're saying.

tom webster First Liner

tom webster

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Yea. I guess we disagree on that opinion. I think Nurse will be better than Myers.

 

 

I am still trying to get a handle on your opinions. You obviously are very passionate about this stuff and put a lot of work into compiling information but you write as if your opinion is first hand information that can only be derived through a lot of film study. Are you just watching youtube or do you have access to a lot of scout footage?

Weave Hall of Famer

Weave

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Yea. I guess we disagree on that opinion. I think Nurse will be better than Myers.

 

Probably end up being drafted at similar points in the draft so expectations would be similar.

 

Nurse is a totally different player than Myers. Nurse is a more physical, lockdown guy. I expect he'll be better than Myers at that part of the defensive game.

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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I am still trying to get a handle on your opinions. You obviously are very passionate about this stuff and put a lot of work into compiling information but you write as if your opinion is first hand information that can only be derived through a lot of film study. Are you just watching youtube or do you have access to a lot of scout footage?

 

Well I generally avoid a lot of phrases like "it looks like, I think, in my opinion" etc. because that's just fluff that's pointless. I was taught that if you write it, obviously you're the one the thinks it unless it's in quotes. So while it might seem like I'm writing in the form of facts, it's all just opinion. There's a decent chance Darnell Nurse ends up being a complete flop.

 

Anyways, my opinions are generated by watching as much of these kids as I can (there's a reason I won't be writing about my entire top thirty because I don't know enough about some of the lower guys to write more than a sentence or two about them). I make sure I DVR every game that is on local TV (all of the postseason stuff, and international play). Then there are some streaming sites where you can catch some games.

And then the rest of it is just reading up as much as possible from the professionals that get to see this firsthand as well as watching YouTube stuff. I love when I can find players who have packages that aren't "highlights." You can't define a prospect based on a HIGHLIGHTS video.

 

It's a culmination of a lot of reading and watching.

 

Probably end up being drafted at similar points in the draft so expectations would be similar.

 

Nurse is a totally different player than Myers. Nurse is a more physical, lockdown guy. I expect he'll be better than Myers at that part of the defensive game.

 

Nurse will be a top seven pick in all likeliness. A top seven pick in a draft that's scary deep at the top. Myers was the 12th pick in a draft not as strong coming in as this one.

 

For the record, I was doing the draft this in depth back in 2008. So I'm saying that long-term, Nurse will be better (in my opinion). I can't imagine Myers was as highly thought of going into the draft as Nurse is, but they're probably at least on similar level as far as coming into the draft.

Weave Hall of Famer

Weave

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Well I generally avoid a lot of phrases like "it looks like, I think, in my opinion" etc. because that's just fluff that's pointless. I was taught that if you write it, obviously you're the one the thinks it unless it's in quotes. So while it might seem like I'm writing in the form of facts, it's all just opinion. There's a decent chance Darnell Nurse ends up being a complete flop.

 

Anyways, my opinions are generated by watching as much of these kids as I can (there's a reason I won't be writing about my entire top thirty because I don't know enough about some of the lower guys to write more than a sentence or two about them). I make sure I DVR every game that is on local TV (all of the postseason stuff, and international play). Then there are some streaming sites where you can catch some games.

And then the rest of it is just reading up as much as possible from the professionals that get to see this firsthand as well as watching YouTube stuff. I love when I can find players who have packages that aren't "highlights." You can't define a prospect based on a HIGHLIGHTS video.

 

It's a culmination of a lot of reading and watching.

 

 

 

Nurse will be a top seven pick in all likeliness. A top seven pick in a draft that's scary deep at the top. Myers was the 12th pick in a draft not as strong coming in as this one.

 

For the record, I was doing the draft this in depth back in 2008. So I'm saying that long-term, Nurse will be better (in my opinion). I can't imagine Myers was as highly thought of going into the draft as Nurse is, but they're probably at least on similar level as far as coming into the draft.

 

Your expectations for where Nurse goes in the draft is more lofty than most prognosticators.

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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Your expectations for where Nurse goes in the draft is more lofty than most prognosticators.

 

Well, this is just a quick example... But: The 3 NHL.com mock drafts have Nurse at 5, 6 and 7. I think he'll end up at 5 or 7. Not sure how that's considered more lofty... The other three that I found by quickly googling "NHL Mock Draft" (Hockey's Future, NHL Draft Site, MyNHLDraft) all have him at seven...

 

Before I change my mind.

 

Lindholm

Monahan

Nurse

 

These are probably the three best players we can get at 8. With Ristolainen falling just behind them. I'd want Nurse, Lindholm, Monahan.

X. Benedict All Star

X. Benedict

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I don't understand what you're saying.

 

Defensemen taken in the first round have about a 60% chance of playing a full season in the NHL.

Nurse could be years from making an impact. He could be much closer. It's just hard to tell with 17 and 18 year old kids.

 

I think Nurse has high reward potential. But there is probably still a 20% chance he busts.

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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Defensemen taken in the first round have about a 60% chance of playing a full season in the NHL.

Nurse could be years from making an impact. He could be much closer. It's just hard to tell with 17 and 18 year old kids.

 

I think Nurse has high reward potential. But there is probably still a 20% chance he busts.

 

Well yea. Of course there's a chance he busts. That's something that doesn't need to be said when you're talking about prospects. It also doesn't need to be said that you expect a guy to make an NHL roster when he's projected/you're projecting him to be in the top 10 picks.

rakish Third Liner

rakish

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Me, PHD, and sickinfla have been talking some about value adjusting for the birthdate. Everyone agrees that teams do adjust, but I wanted to know how much, So I made a chart of players who played multiple years in the OHL and the Q, to get an idea about the how much a player's scoring changes during his junior career. The player's name is on the chart at the point he got drafted. What I take from the chart is that a players PPG improves about 50% per year between 17 and 19.5, then flattens out after that. It may be very different with men's leagues like SM-liiga, but NHL.com does a bad job differentiating SM-ligga from other Finnish leagues, so I don't know yet.

 

I added two things to my draft pick comparison tool. First I added all the potential draft picks, so if you want to compare Taylor Cammarata to the other 5'7" players that have been drafted, you don't have to look up Taylor's stats. Second, based on the chart from the first paragraph, I now sort by Adjusted PPG, meaning that if you are 17.9 like Barkov and MacKinnon, your Adjusted PPG will be higher, if you are older like Jones and Monahan, your PPG will be a bit lower. The European leagues are a mess, mainly because of the different word usage complained about earlier. Drafted players combine their season and the playoffs, this year's players are just season, it's how the data was.

X. Benedict All Star

X. Benedict

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Well yea. Of course there's a chance he busts. That's something that doesn't need to be said when you're talking about prospects. It also doesn't need to be said that you expect a guy to make an NHL roster when he's projected/you're projecting him to be in the top 10 picks.

 

I was referring to the Tyler Myers comparison up-thread. That was what I was clarifying.

ALF Prospect

ALF

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Scouting Report

 

Height - 6'5''

Weight - 192

Shoots - Left

Age - 18 (born 2/4/95)

From - Hamilton, ON

Darnell Nurse is exactly the type of player that fits the Sabres new draft philosophy that began last year - he's big, fast, and nasty. His 6'5'' frame is the product of a family chock full of elite athletes, and it gives him the size and reach to be a shutdown defenseman. He's already learned how to effectively use his size to shut down his opponents, and is extremely positionally and fundamentally sound. His never-quit, gritty disposition would make whichever team that drafts him tougher to play against (sound familiar?) but he's not just a one-dimensional player - he skates very well for a big man, has a nice breakout pass, and quarterbacked the power play for the Greyhounds this year in addition to leading the penalty kill.

 

http://www.diebytheb...s-darnell-nurse

 

 

Valeri Nichushkin Profile

 

 

 

 

Valeri%20Nichushkin.jpg

Valeri NichushkinHt/Wt: 6' 4"/202 lbs

Position: LW/RW

Team: Chelyabinsk (RUS)

 

 

 

 

Valeri Nichushkin's Player Profile

 

Nichushkin is an impressive power forward who has a ton of natural gifts. He could be a potential star, if not an elite power winger in the NHL. His best skill is his skating ability, as he is a true plus-plus skater that defensemen need to respect when he's barreling down the wing. If a gap gets too tight, Nichushkin will likely be behind the defender in no time. He is also a strong, 6'4'' pillar who loves to drive to the net. Combining that with his speed and skill, he draws a lot of penalties. Nichushkin's north-south game is his strength, but he has a high level of ability with the puck, with the capability to make players miss.

 

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2013/NHL-Draft-Profiles/Valeri-Nichushkin

Sabres Fan in NS Hall of Famer

Sabres Fan in NS

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6' 5" and 192?

 

Something doesn't sit right with those numbers.

 

Just a kid, but another beanpole. He should bulk up that frame to 225 +/-. Then he would have a better chance to be an NHL regular.

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