2013 NHL Entry Draft: Buffalo Sabres Select...

[TrueBlueGED]

You need to remember that in some of those drafts really really good players were taken 9/10 or 17/18 so its still a crap shoot. I mean if I manipulate those results a tad it changes everything... like I make it do things like

Vanek V. Dion Phaneuf + Zack Parise for example.

Schenn V. Josh Bailey + Eric Karlsson for example (Karlsson was 15th)

 

My point being there is some truth the theory 5 is better than 8/16 but if you tweak those picks ever so slightly and that theory comes crashing down. I would say that you have a 50/50 shot of getting a better player @ 5 than 1 at 8/16... I mean I cherry picked to prove the point but still in deep drafts you can do it rather successfully. Look at 2003 which this draft is compared too. Would you rather have Vanek or Phaneuf (9) and Parise (17)

 

Holy massaging the data batman! You can't just start varying the later picks but leave Vanek as Vanek. If we're going to look at ranges why not look at work which has already been done showing top-5 picks are far more likely to pan out than other picks?

[dudacek]

If the draft was tomorrow without trades - I think it would play out like this:

 

Colorado takes Seth Jones

Florida takes Nathan MacKinnon

Tampa Bay takes Jonathan Drouin

Nashville takes Valery Nichushkin

Carolina takes Sasha Alexsander Barkov

Calgary takes Sean Monahan

Edmonton takes Elias Lindholm

Buffalo takes Rasmus Ristolainen

New Jersey takes Nikita Zadorov

Dallas takes Darnell Nurse

Philadelphia takes Bo Horvat

Phoenix takes Ryan Pulock

Winnipeg takes Hunter Shinkaruk

Columbus takes Alexander Wennberg

NY Islanders takes Max Domi

Buffalo takes Adam Erne

 

That's a very realistic take, although I think it is just as likely Lindholm falls to us.

I think Edmonton is blowing smoke on their desire for a centre.

They desperately need defence and are trying to encourage someone to trade up to their spot.

 

And for all the speculation I have been indulging in, I would be quite content with a draft that yields Lindholm/Ristolainen and Erne, keeping Vanek and Miller to resign, or trade for other assets.

[LGR4GM]

Holy massaging the data batman! You can't just start varying the later picks but leave Vanek as Vanek. If we're going to look at ranges why not look at work which has already been done showing top-5 picks are far more likely to pan out than other picks?

So dropping from 8 to 9th and 16th to 17th is that horrible? The point wasn't a straight comparison but that you can get really good talent at 8/16 in a deep draft so it maybe worth a 5th or it maybe worth more to stay at 8/16 because in a deep draft you will get high quality. If you really want to look at I would do 2002 through now and look at picks 4-6 versus 7-9 and 15-17 to determine the value of having 5 or 8/16. That would be the best way.

[Robviously]

If the draft was tomorrow without trades - I think it would play out like this:

 

Colorado takes Seth Jones

Florida takes Nathan MacKinnon

Tampa Bay takes Jonathan Drouin

Nashville takes Valery Nichushkin

Carolina takes Sasha Alexsander Barkov

Calgary takes Sean Monahan

Edmonton takes Elias Lindholm

Buffalo takes Rasmus Ristolainen

New Jersey takes Nikita Zadorov

Dallas takes Darnell Nurse

Philadelphia takes Bo Horvat

Phoenix takes Ryan Pulock

Winnipeg takes Hunter Shinkaruk

Columbus takes Alexander Wennberg

NY Islanders takes Max Domi

Buffalo takes Adam Erne

:yawn:

[etiennep99]

<p>

And for all the speculation I have been indulging in, I would be quite content with a draft that yields Lindholm/Ristolainen and Erne, keeping Vanek and Miller to resign, or trade for other assets.

 

 

I agree. Unless the Sabres can trade up for MacKinnon (not likely), Barkov, or Monahan, I think that they would be best served by keeping their picks. (I'm not sold on Lindholme.) Better yet, trade Vanek and/or Miller for more #1 picks this year. It's a deep draft, and the Sabres need a lot of help. They might even trade down a few spots if it could yield more quality picks.

 

Also, what do you all think about drafting Alexander Ruuttu later in the draft? He's not going to be a star, but he could provide depth, he has Buffalo connections via his dad, and he's another Finn for Armia, although Ruuttu projects more like a 4th liner now.

 

 

Just my two cents.

[Lanny]

If the draft was tomorrow without trades - I think it would play out like this:

 

Colorado takes Seth Jones

Florida takes Nathan MacKinnon

Tampa Bay takes Jonathan Drouin

Nashville takes Valery Nichushkin

Carolina takes Sasha Alexsander Barkov

Calgary takes Sean Monahan

Edmonton takes Elias Lindholm

Buffalo takes Rasmus Ristolainen

that would stink, I want one of those top 6 forwards

[LaFontaineToMogilny]

Colorado takes Seth Jones

Florida takes Nathan MacKinnon

Tampa Bay takes Jonathan Drouin

Nashville takes Valery Nichushkin

Carolina takes we have a trade

 

Buffalo deals their 8th overall pick to Columbus for the 14th and 26th pick

Carolina deal their 5th pick to Buffalo for the 14th, 16th and 26th overall pick

Buffalo takes Alexander Barkov

[sicknfla]

Colorado takes Seth Jones

Florida takes Nathan MacKinnon

Tampa Bay takes Jonathan Drouin

Nashville takes u Valery Nichushkin

Carolina takes we have a trade

 

 

 

Buffalo deals their 8th overall pick to Columbus for the 14th and 26th pick

Carolina deal their 5th pick to Buffalo for the 14th, 16th and 26th overall pick

Buffalo takes Alexander Barkov

 

Columbus may.....Carolina won't.

[TrueBlueGED]

:yawn:

 

Basically how I feel. It's not disastrous or anything, but it's just so....standard? Typical? Boring? Take your pick.

[LaFontaineToMogilny]

Columbus may.....Carolina won't.

 

Yeah, I know, it was basically just a template for a more fun and exciting draft than picking Ristolainen and Erne.

 

To make it more reasonable feel free to thrown in all sorts of additional pieces.

[thewookie1]

Supposedly the Islanders are trying to unload DiPietro's monstrosity of a contract and are willing to give assets in return.

 

Hell, have Pegula buy him out and take their 1st rounder + a 3rd rounder next year.

[qwksndmonster]

I'm optimistic about the draft. The rankings weren't accurate to the draft order last year, and I'd bet a damn good center falls to us.

 

I've been pretty confident for a while that Darcy's going to do the same thing he did last year, just earlier in the draft. My guess is that Buffalo is going to end up drafting twice between 5 and 11.

[dudacek]

I'm optimistic about the draft. The rankings weren't accurate to the draft order last year, and I'd bet a damn good center falls to us.

 

I've been pretty confident for a while that Darcy's going to do the same thing he did last year, just earlier in the draft. My guess is that Buffalo is going to end up drafting twice between 5 and 11.

 

Yeah, most of the talk has focused on using number eight to move up, but I think it is much more likely we flip 16 and a second to grab someone we really like at 10-12.

And I think it's at least even money either Monahan or Lindholm will be there at eight.

[LGR4GM]

Basically how I feel. It's not disastrous or anything, but it's just so....standard? Typical? Boring? Take your pick.

We have been boring and standard for 6years. I think it is time to get creative. which leads to my point below...

 

I'm optimistic about the draft. The rankings weren't accurate to the draft order last year, and I'd bet a damn good center falls to us.

 

I've been pretty confident for a while that Darcy's going to do the same thing he did last year, just earlier in the draft. My guess is that Buffalo is going to end up drafting twice between 5 and 11.

I think we should trade with Dallas but not the 8th pick. 16 to Dallas for 10th. They also get Prospect and a 3rd round pick. Then we draft Elias Lindholm (he falls to us) and Rasmus Ristolainen. Now that prospect is someone midlevel and not a grigorenko or armia. Dallas needs forward help and defensive help and could use extra picks and a prospect. Also it puts them in the middle of that muddled 3rd tier of guys.

[dudacek]

 

yes because you are now arguing Horvat will be equivalent to Bergeron. Horvat has less likelihood of becoming a NHL 2nd line player than Monahan or Lindholm WHO for the record have excellent 2-way games and Monahan is considered one of the best well rounded guys in the draft. I question your love of drafting HORVAT at 8. I have said I would take him at 16 but not at 8 I wouldn't when in all likelihood Lindholm or Monahan are still available.

 

I'm not "now" arguing he will be the equivalent of Bergeron.

I said I ranked him as highly as I did because I am very confident he will be a Bergeron/Richards/Kesler type of player.

You argued you don't pick those kinds of players as high as 8th.

I think you can and watching Bergeron last night reinforced why.

 

And, to be clear, I have Monahan and Lindholm both ahead of Horvat.

[X. Benedict]

I'm not "now" arguing he will be the equivalent of Bergeron.

I said I ranked him as highly as I did because I am very confident he will be a Bergeron/Richards/Kesler type of player.

You argued you don't pick those kinds of players as high as 8th.

I think you can and watching Bergeron last night reinforced why.

 

And, to be clear, I have Monahan and Lindholm both ahead of Horvat.

 

I wouldn't be surprised or disappointed if Buffalo tried to move 16 to 12 to grab Horvat if he is still available.

Word is he'll be a guy that can play 11 of 12 forward positions at the NHL level. He's just not a #1 center.

[LGR4GM]

I'm not "now" arguing he will be the equivalent of Bergeron.

I said I ranked him as highly as I did because I am very confident he will be a Bergeron/Richards/Kesler type of player.

You argued you don't pick those kinds of players as high as 8th.

I think you can and watching Bergeron last night reinforced why.

 

And, to be clear, I have Monahan and Lindholm both ahead of Horvat.

Horvat at 8th or Nurse/Ristolainen/Zadarov?

[Hoss]

Why is Fucale being talked about around here as a top 10 pick? He's barely a first rounder.

 

If the Sabres really want to change the future of this team, this is the year to trade up. Just do it.

[dudacek]

 

Horvat at 8th or Nurse/Ristolainen/Zadarov?

 

I'd prefer to trade and take Horvat between 10 and 12, because that's where I think he is more likely to go.

Failing that, Horvat at 8.

 

Edit: My dream draft is Monahan or Lindholm at 8, and a trade with Philly for Couturier and 11, where we take Horvat. Ryan Miller is my bait.

[LGR4GM]

I'd prefer to trade and take Horvat between 10 and 12, because that's where I think he is more likely to go.

Failing that, Horvat at 8.

and that was my original point. You don't take a #2/3 center at 8 when you can take a #1 Defender. It is more likely Nurse/Ristolainen become first pairing defenders than it is that Horvat becomes a #2 or even #3 Center. Also I wouldn't trade down.

 

The entire point of this entire argument is you don't draft a projected #3 center at 8th overall.

[X. Benedict]

Why is Fucale being talked about around here as a top 10 pick? He's barely a first rounder.

 

 

Fucale might be the best player in the draft. That doesn't mean he'll go top 20.

 

That's just not how it works (for goalies). If someone takes him high, that won't really be a surprise either. I think he'll go 25-35.

[dudacek]

 

and that was my original point. You don't take a #2/3 center at 8 when you can take a #1 Defender. It is more likely Nurse/Ristolainen become first pairing defenders than it is that Horvat becomes a #2 or even #3 Center. Also I wouldn't trade down.

 

Strongly disagree. I think Horvat is almost guaranteed to be Bergeron, the defencemen being talked up are much more high-risk (Risto less than the other two). But that's just my perception based on a lot of reading and not much viewing.

And yours is clearly different.

 

Just to continue the discussion on a more philosophical level:

Bergeron or Bogosian?

Bergeron or Erik Johnson?

Bergeron or Myers?

 

Or, to make it more age-appropriate, substitute for Bergeron, Ryan OReilly.

[Hoss]

Fucale might be the best player in the draft. That doesn't mean he'll go top 20.

 

That's just not how it works (for goalies). If someone takes him high, that won't really be a surprise either. I think he'll go 25-35.

 

Fucale is the top goalie prospect, but he's seen as a Cam Ward level goalie. Won a stanley cup but isn't really a top goalie in the league. Not near the top prospect in this draft.

[LGR4GM]

Strongly disagree. I think Horvat is almost guaranteed to be Bergeron, the defencemen being talked up are much more high-risk (Risto less than the other two). But that's just my perception based on a lot of reading and not much viewing.

And yours is clearly different.

 

Just to continue the discussion on a more philosophical level:

Bergeron or Bogosian?

Bergeron or Erik Johnson?

Bergeron or Myers?

Bergeron or Weber

Bergeron or Suter

Bergeron or Karlsson

Bergeron or let me name half a dozen other defenders

I can pick just as many better defenders as you can worse. The point is probability of success.

Also what is the liklihood this guy will make the NHL and where does he project out to be. Risto, Nurse and even Zadarov project up to be better players than Horvat. On top of that check out these top defensive centers and where they were drafted:

Bergeron: 45th overall

Krecji: 63rd overall

Hanzal: 17th overall

Just saying it doesn't seem like a lot of top 10 picks end up as 3rd line centers. It is overreaching.

 

TO be clear I really like Horvat but not at 8... maybe at 12 and definitely at 16

[Robviously]

Basically how I feel. It's not disastrous or anything, but it's just so....standard? Typical? Boring? Take your pick.

The problem with Ristolainen at 8 and Erne at 16 is that it won't really do much to change the longterm outlook for the team, IMO. Would you feel any closer to winning the Cup with that draft?

 

Adding any of the top six forwards would feel like a big shift for the franchise. This? Ristolainen sounds like a good defenseman and Erne sounds like every 1st round forward we've drafted the last 20 years (except Vanek): he'll never be a superstar, but he MIGHT be a guy like Pominville someday if we're lucky. Bleh.

 

If the top six forwards forwards are gone by the no.8 pick, I hope we trade up from 16, even if we ended up taking two defensemen. Seriously, if we ended up with Nurse and Ristolainen (or Zadarov), we'd at least have a really interesting blueline down the road with big, mean guys who can skate (especially if you think about a Myers reclamation project or McNabb).