2013 NHL Entry Draft: Buffalo Sabres Select...

[Sabre Dance]

The Drouins were an ancient Celtic people who erected Stonehenge and made animal sacrifices to appease their Gods. I draft the kid for that reason alone.

 

GO SABRES!!!

 

Speaking as a Druid (reformed), I resemble that remark... :blink:

[LGR4GM]

this was posted on my fb wall this morning

http://www.wgr550.com/Break-out-the-NHL-draft-previews/15659068

 

Guess WGR or at least Howard Simon really do read this forum for ideas.

[Robviously]

Does anyone actually think we'll be drafting in the top 3 without the help of the draft lottery? I know we suck, but at some point we're going to string together some wins and sneak up the standings.

[Trettioåtta]

Does anyone actually think we'll be drafting in the top 3 without the help of the draft lottery? I know we suck, but at some point we're going to string together some wins and sneak up the standings.

 

It's first or nothing in this new lottery. But yes, I have thought this as well, however:

A) The standings are all really tight, so we are not going to over take too many teams unless something major happens

B) The Panthers and Caps are (statistically) due for a bit of a break out

C) I would really consider being a deadline seller unless we are really in the playoff race, with close standings this would be a perfect year to get big returns on mediocre stock

 

Basically, I think if nothing changes we finish 11thish (above WIN, NYI, WAS and FLA), but if we sell I think we drop down to the bottom 5, which gives us a reasonable shot at number 1 and should give us a good return even if we don't win it

[Grumpy]

Does anyone actually think we'll be drafting in the top 3 without the help of the draft lottery? I know we suck, but at some point we're going to string together some wins and sneak up the standings.

 

Maybe. I hope it starts soon. Or, do I need them to continue to crash and burn to get rid of DR? It is really hard to hope my team loses. I say it before the game starts, but then find myself rooting for them anyway. Old habits are hard to break.

[Hoss]

Wish we were this bad when a guy like Connor McDavid was in the draft...

[LabattBlue]

Pretty sure the sabres will make a too late push at the end and miss the playoffs by 2-3pts and draft between 10 and 14th position.

^^^ This.

[Robviously]

It's first or nothing in this new lottery. But yes, I have thought this as well, however:

A) The standings are all really tight, so we are not going to over take too many teams unless something major happens

B) The Panthers and Caps are (statistically) due for a bit of a break out

C) I would really consider being a deadline seller unless we are really in the playoff race, with close standings this would be a perfect year to get big returns on mediocre stock

 

Basically, I think if nothing changes we finish 11thish (above WIN, NYI, WAS and FLA), but if we sell I think we drop down to the bottom 5, which gives us a reasonable shot at number 1 and should give us a good return even if we don't win it

I don't think there's that much difference in drafting 1st overall or 4th overall this year. There are a handful of really high-end prospects this year that will be drafted before the first round becomes sort of a normal first round in terms of talent. So I don't worry about winning the lottery as much as whether or not we'll actually have a bottom 5 record.

 

I honestly don't see it. Miller will keep us in enough games that we'll get our points. I think a pick between 6th and 10th is most likely, and I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up back at 12th overall again.

[TrueBlueGED]

I don't think there's that much difference in drafting 1st overall or 4th overall this year. There are a handful of really high-end prospects this year that will be drafted before the first round becomes sort of a normal first round in terms of talent. So I don't worry about winning the lottery as much as whether or not we'll actually have a bottom 5 record.

 

I honestly don't see it. Miller will keep us in enough games that we'll get our points. I think a pick between 6th and 10th is most likely, and I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up back at 12th overall again.

 

I agree. For better or worse, I never thought we were literally the worst team in the league. While I no longer think we're a playoff team, I do think the talent is good enough to be in the top 10-12 of the conference.

[Weave]

I agree. For better or worse, I never thought we were literally the worst team in the league. While I no longer think we're a playoff team, I do think the talent is good enough to be in the top 10-12 of the conference.

 

[PotentPowerPlay22]

Pretty sure the sabres will make a too late push at the end and miss the playoffs by 2-3pts and draft between 10 and 14th position.

 

My thoughts exactly. The team needs a premium pick like #1 or #2 or #3. This is how you get your franchise players in most cases. Gil Perreault was the best example in Sabres history. You're just not going to get that player drafting 9th. The Penguins got Crosby and Malkin because they really stunk for a couple years. The Sabres muddle along the mediocre side of bad and never get the top picks.

 

The bottom line is that this team needs more talent and less deadwood who get paid many millions and don't score at all. Stafford and Leino and several others are killing this team. The owner fired the wrong guy. Regier was more to blame than Ruff. Where's the talent? Who is responsible for getting it?

 

The best coach in the league would not get this team to the playoffs with the dearth of talent.

[Trettioåtta]

My thoughts exactly. The team needs a premium pick like #1 or #2 or #3. This is how you get your franchise players in most cases. Gil Perreault was the best example in Sabres history. You're just not going to get that player drafting 9th. The Penguins got Crosby and Malkin because they really stunk for a couple years. The Sabres muddle along the mediocre side of bad and never get the top picks.

 

The bottom line is that this team needs more talent and less deadwood who get paid many millions and don't score at all. Stafford and Leino and several others are killing this team. The owner fired the wrong guy. Regier was more to blame than Ruff. Where's the talent? Who is responsible for getting it?

 

The best coach in the league would not get this team to the playoffs with the dearth of talent.

 

Yeah Leino has 0 points on the season. I don't even notice him on the ice anymore. Such a horrible contract

[carpandean]

The Penguins got Crosby and Malkin because they really stunk for a couple years. The Sabres muddle along the mediocre side of bad and never get the top picks.

 

Though, the Sabres did have the same number of balls in the lockout draft lottery for Crosby as the Penguins did. The reason that he wears black and gold, not blue and gold, comes down to pure luck.

[Two or less]

Wish we were this bad when a guy like Connor McDavid was in the draft...

 

Who's to say we won't be?

[LGR4GM]

Though, the Sabres did have the same number of balls in the lockout draft lottery for Crosby as the Penguins did. The reason that he wears black and gold, not blue and gold, comes down to pure luck.

and if I understand correctly as long as we finish outside the playoff picture we could potentially move all the way up to 1st.

 

Is the draft lottery still weighted by position? (i.e. the last team gets the most chances/balls)

[Sabres Fan in NS]

and if I understand correctly as long as we finish outside the playoff picture we could potentially move all the way up to 1st.

 

Is the draft lottery still weighted by position? (i.e. the last team gets the most chances/balls)

 

My understanding, which comes from this board, is that the lotto is still weighted by position. The last place team has, IIRC, a 25% chance of landing the first overall pick and it goes down from there. Again, IIRC, the big change is that all 14 non-playoff teams are in the lotto and there are no limits to the number of places a team could rise, or fall, within those 14 draft positions.

[carpandean]

Right. There used to be a ~23% chance that one of the 6-14th worst teams would win the lotto and move up four spots. This meant that the worst team would have a 25+23 = 48% chance of keeping the top overall pick. The remaining 52% was split among the 2-5th worst teams, with the second worst having something like 17%, who could move up to #1. The only thing that they changed this year is they removed the "no more than four spots" limit on the winner. So, the worst team's chance drops to 25% and each of the 6-14th teams gain a chance at #1. Of course, no matter who wins, the worst team does no worse than #2 overall.

[LGR4GM]

Right. There used to be a ~23% chance that one of the 6-14th worst teams would win the lotto and move up four spots. This meant that the worst team would have a 25+23 = 48% chance of keeping the top overall pick. The remaining 52% was split among the 2-5th worst teams, with the second worst having something like 17%, who could move up to #1. The only thing that they changed this year is they removed the "no more than four spots" limit on the winner. So, the worst team's chance drops to 25% and each of the 6-14th teams gain a chance at #1. Of course, no matter who wins, the worst team does no worse than #2 overall.

so what is our percentage chance of picking first if we finished say 14th worst?

[Trettioåtta]

so what is our percentage chance of picking first if we finished say 14th worst?

 

0.5%

[spndnchz]

Draft percentage chance at number one pick:

30th 25.0%

29th 18.8%

28th 14.2%

27th 10.7%

26th 8.1%

25th 6.2%

24th 4.7%

23rd 3.6%

22nd 2.7%

21st 2.1%

20th 1.5%

19th 1.1%

18th 0.8%

17th 0.5%

[BuffaloSoldier2010]

My understanding, which comes from this board, is that the lotto is still weighted by position. The last place team has, IIRC, a 25% chance of landing the first overall pick and it goes down from there. Again, IIRC, the big change is that all 14 non-playoff teams are in the lotto and there are no limits to the number of places a team could rise, or fall, within those 14 draft positions.

 

I was under the impression a team could only fall a maximum of 1 spot?

[MattPie]

I was under the impression a team could only fall a maximum of 1 spot?

 

Correct. One team moves to the front of the line, everyone between that team and #1 overall moves back a slot.

 

Does that seeding carry on thru the subsequent rounds?

[BuffaloSoldier2010]

so finish in the bottom two and we are guaranteed a shot at one of MacKinnon Jones or Drouin.

 

I'm okay with that. Either one of them coupled with Grigs, Armia, Foligno, and Ennis makes for one extremely enticing group of young guns in the coming years. New "core" anyone?

[LGR4GM]

so finish in the bottom two and we are guaranteed a shot at one of MacKinnon Jones or Drouin.

 

I'm okay with that. Either one of them coupled with Grigs, Armia, Foligno, and Ennis makes for one extremely enticing group of young guns in the coming years. New "core" anyone?

exactly my point

 

Vanek-CoHo-Armia

Ennis-Grigs-MacKinnon

Foligno-Catenacci-Kaleta?Someone else

 

I feel like that 3 years from now is possbily a cup team.

[Robviously]

exactly my point

 

Vanek-CoHo-Armia

Ennis-Grigs-MacKinnon

Foligno-Catenacci-Kaleta?Someone else

 

I feel like that 3 years from now is possbily a cup team.

I really don't think Catenacci is considered a great prospect anywhere outside this forum.

 

Also, that's a pretty small Top 9.