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2013 NHL Entry Draft: Buffalo Sabres Select...

LGR4GM

By LGR4GM
in The Aud Club

Jones or MacKinnon  

127 members have voted

  1. 1. Which would you draft given the 1st overall pick?

    • Seth Jones
      18
    • Nathan MacKinnon
      68
    • Jonathan Drouin
      22

  2. 2. Who do you think the Sabres should draft at #8 overall?

    • Sean Monahan
      10
    • Elias Lindholm
      7
    • Valeri Nichushkin
      10
    • Ristolainen/Nurse/Zadarov/Other defender
      0
    • Zach Fucale
      2
    • Other, please post name
      5

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Derrico First Liner

Derrico

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For those still dreaming of trading up, here's a nice write-up of Corey Pronman's top-5 prospects: http://hockeyprospec...?articleid=1521

 

I still say Nichushkin is worth the risk at 8 if he drops there.

 

Thanks for the write up. I'm of two minds in the upcomming draft. On one hand, this is suppose to be a deep draft and our picks at 8 and 16 should both turn into good players. For that matter our 2nd rounders could also turn into nice picks. However, the high end talent in this draft means moving up will give you a guy you can build your franchise around. Ideally, I want them to trade almost anything necessary to get into the #2 slot.

 

To get there, I still think we should trade up with Carolina or ideally Nashville. Once there, I think it would be much easier to get into the #2 spot. To do this will likely cost us one or both 2nd, both of our firsts and current players / prospects. I still think it's worth it though.

spndnchz All Star

spndnchz

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I would think that, for maximal options going forward, we'll know if Miller and Vanek sign extensions before the morning of the draft. If those two are in trade-play, anything can happen.

 

They can't. They have to wait until July 5th.

LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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That was very informative and the blurb about lindholm makes me more comfortable with getting him or Monahan. I've been watching more highlights on lindholm and he is very good. No know nichuchskins is great but I worry he will never touch NHL ice.

IKnowPhysics First Liner

IKnowPhysics

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No know nichuchskins is great but I worry he will never touch NHL ice.

 

We'll put him through the same process as we did Grigorenko. If he's available at #8, and we pass on him, that might give away the answer.

SabresBillsFan Second Liner

SabresBillsFan

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This would have me worried.

Valeri Nichushkin – I’m still not getting it, Nichushkin as the number 2 pick? That incredible mix of size and speed is extremely tempting, but inconsistency is really the key with Nichushkin. He doesn’t use that size nearly enough and it’s hard to see him at 6’4 210 being less gritty than 5’8 165 Tkachyov. When he does use his size he is a beast and nobody can take that puck off him whether it is at full stride, on the boards or around the net. When he wants to hit (every third bloodmoon on a red dawn) he has the explosiveness to crush players. He has some of the best raw tools in this draft but he needs to do more than sprint down the wing and shoot a wrist shot or go wide and jam on the side of the net once every two games. Maybe I’m nitpicking, but that’s probably because he disappeared against any real opponent and scored 3 of his 4 goals against Germany in a rout. I still think he goes top-15, but he’s not on the same level as either Tarasenko or even Kuznetsov at the same age and both fell far in the draft.

spndnchz All Star

spndnchz

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http://www.hockeypro...?articleid=1521

4. Valeri Nichushkin, Right Wing, Traktor (KHL)

Nichushkin is an impressive power forward who has a ton of natural gifts. He could be a potential star, if not an elite power winger in the NHL. His best skill is his skating ability, as he is a true plus-plus skater that defensemen need to respect when he's barreling down the wing. If a gap gets too tight, Nichushkin will likely be behind the defender in no time. He is also a strong, 6'4'' pillar who loves to drive to the net. Combining that with his speed and skill, he draws a lot of penalties. Nichushkin's north-south game is his strength, but he has a high level of ability with the puck, with the capability to make players miss. He can make plays to his teammates, and he has good offensive instincts, although his hockey sense is an area of division among scouts. Some question his vision, feeling he can be a little selfish. Others think his hockey sense is above average. He has the ability to skate through an entire team, so it cannot be considered surprising that he tries to do a lot. One area of concern: he needs to improve his defensive play.

 

Ranking explanation: Because of my high regard for Aleksander Barkov, this was a tough ranking to make. Ultimately, there is a slight-to-moderate gap between the two players. On a skill level, they are about equal, with Barkov having an edge in hockey sense. Barkov has one of the best hockey IQs in this draft class, and he is a center, which is typically preferable to a winger. However, Nichushkin has a giant advantage in terms of skating. He is one of the best in this draft class in that area, while Barkov is below average. Nichushkin also has an edge in terms of his physical game. The hockey sense issue is still paramount. If an evaluator felt the gap was enormous (as great as Nichushkin's skating gap over Barkov), then the two players are near equals, to the point where Barkov has a reasonable argument to be ranked fourth on this list. However, if the hockey sense gap was not considered to be that large, the reasonable argument to place Barkov ahead of Nichushkin does not exist, and the KHL forward could challenge for a top-three selection in this draft. I am placing myself somewhere in between, hence why I have ranked Nichushkin's prospect value as better than Barkov's by a slight-to-moderate margin.

Note: I am not taking into account transfer risk for Nichushkin.

Eleven Hall of Famer

Eleven

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They can't. They have to wait until July 5th.

 

Which is the dumbest rule ever. I can't see how this benefits either the players or management, and I can't see how it somehow promotes a level playing field among teams.

tom webster First Liner

tom webster

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Which is the dumbest rule ever. I can't see how this benefits either the players or management, and I can't see how it somehow promotes a level playing field among teams.

 

I actually like that they cannot "officially" negotiate till a year left on their deals.

dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

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The 10 to 12 extra hours I've gained in my week recently have been put to good use researching the draft.

And damn, this looks like a good year to have multiple first rounders.

 

Three scenarios that excite me:

1) Nate McKinnon is a franchise player with exactly the skill set this team needs, Drouin is a talent we haven't seen here since Lafontaine, and Barkov is a horse - Grigorenko without the questions about his battle and his mental approach. If we can trade into the top four it would be the best player acquisition move to happen to this franchise since the Vanek pick.

 

2) I'm definitely joining LGR on the Monahan bandwagon as a player I hope is still sitting there at eight if we use that slot. Lindholm would be a great consolation prize. Both have Hodgson as their floor. My dark horse pick is the kid from London Bo Horvat - He's ranked in the teens, but is probably climbing thanks to a great playoff. He's probably my favourite player in this draft - think Mike Richards, but a better skater and without the douchiness - exactly the type of player the Sabres need. I like Nurse and Nichushkin as well, but if they are the best available at eight, I'd rather trade down because there is an embarrassment of riches worthy of picking in the middle of round one.

 

3) I know this kind of proposal fits better over on Two Bills Drive, but I'd love to see the Sabres use number eight and their two seconds to somehow maneuver into three picks in the teens. There are so many players there I would be very happy to enrol in Sabres University. Horvat, Nurse and Nichushkin would be Grigorenko-like steals at that point, but also Domi, Shinkaruk, Rychel, Mantha, Erne, Lazar, Zykov, Hartman and Wennberg are promising as forwards with top-six upside, Ristolainen and Zadorov are intiguing as rocks on the blueline and I am all overSabrefan in NS's boy Fucale in net. I usually have three or four guys I like with our pick, but I could get on board with any of these guys at 16.

IKnowPhysics First Liner

IKnowPhysics

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And with Chicago's win tonight, the Minnesota pick is guaranteed to be the 15th (if the Islanders win, lulz) or the 16th overall. If LA beats StL (LA's up 3-2), I predict (based on draft order tiebreakers) that their 2nd round pick ends up near 50th and the conditional pick turns into about 111th.

 

Sabres 2013 picks: 8,16, 38, 50ish, 69, 111ish, 129, 130, 159, 189

 

As for trading up/down, here are previous trade day, first round, pick-only trades they might help give an idea of market value:

14=21+42 (Sabres-Flames, 2012)

22=30+39 (Leafs-Ducks, 2011)

24=35+48 (Sens-Wings, 2011)

15=19+59 (Kings-Bruins, 2010)

22+113=27+57 (Habs-Coyotes, 2010)

30=35+58 (Islanders-Hawks, 2010)

12+182=16+77 (Wild-Islanders, 2009)

21=26+37 (Jackets-Flyers, 2009)

20=23+84 (Devils-Flames, 2009)

29=32+75 (Lightning-Wings, 2009)

...and 2008's an enormous mess...

5=7+68+37['09]

7=9+40

12=17+28

12=13+74['09] (Sabres)

15=18+70['09]

21=23+54

23=24+73['09]

 

We might be able to trade 8, 38, and a 2014 2nd rounder (we have three) to move up to a 3-5 pick. And then pick at 16 or trade down to a 20ish pick and a mid-2nd rounder (because the draft is said to be deep).

 

Then you end up with:

3-5, 16/(20+2nd), 50ish, 69, 111ish, 129, 130, 159, 189 and still have the extra 2nd rounder in 2014. We could burn that 16 to go 1-2 pick, but that's still a pretty good ###### draft.

26CornerBlitz First Liner

26CornerBlitz

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Top-30 Draft Prospect NHL Equivalencies

 

Before we begin breaking down individual scouting reports for the various first round hopefuls I decided to survey the entire field from a high level using NHL equivalencies (NHLE). For those unfamiliar, NHLE is a method that corrects for league quality relative to the NHL, allowing us to compare kids across various leagues.

 

Of course, like all pure scoring stats, NHLE is blind to various external contributing factors, such as team quality, variance and other circumstances like a players role. We'll attempt to fill in the blanks somewhat with various targets, but for now we'll rank them according to their NHLE to at least get a broad feel for who is available.\

 

That said, there's a reason to pay attention to NHLE. Via Willis at the Cult of Hockey, the correlation between NHLE and future NHL point-per-game pace:

TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

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3) I know this kind of proposal fits better over on Two Bills Drive, but I'd love to see the Sabres use number eight and their two seconds to somehow maneuver into three picks in the teens. There are so many players there I would be very happy to enrol in Sabres University. Horvat, Nurse and Nichushkin would be Grigorenko-like steals at that point, but also Domi, Shinkaruk, Rychel, Mantha, Erne, Lazar, Zykov, Hartman and Wennberg are promising as forwards with top-six upside, Ristolainen and Zadorov are intiguing as rocks on the blueline and I am all overSabrefan in NS's boy Fucale in net. I usually have three or four guys I like with our pick, but I could get on board with any of these guys at 16.

 

For a team that lacks high end talent, I think trading back from #8 would be certifiably insane. Even if we adjust the historical trend of picks in the mid1st and later of being 3rd line players for a deep draft, we'd have to also adjust the #8 in the same way, meaning it has a higher likelihood than usual of being a franchise player.

 

We might be able to trade 8, 38, and a 2014 2nd rounder (we have three) to move up to a 3-5 pick. And then pick at 16 or trade down to a 20ish pick and a mid-2nd rounder (because the draft is said to be deep).

 

I'll go ahead and be the wet blanket to say we're not trading into the top five for a couple of extra second round picks. I'd even be happy to place a charity wager on it.

LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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We may draft 6th at the most but I think we will find a really high quality center at 8. Lindholm and Monahan are players you DO NOT pass on or trade down from.

IKnowPhysics First Liner

IKnowPhysics

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I'll go ahead and be the wet blanket to say we're not trading into the top five for a couple of extra second round picks.

 

Let's posit it another couple of ways:

If it was a goal of the team to trade into the top three to five or so (the merits of which are surely debatable, but it is romantic), what would it take? Do you have to burn the 16 pick to do it, or are there alternatives that don't burn the 16 and don't necessarily include Vanek or Miller (only because their status is currently unknown)?

 

If we did, for some reason, decide to use both the 8 and the 16 to move up, what would be reasonably achievable? 1? 2? 3?4? Return with one of those or more required? It's, at least recently, unprecedented.

dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

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For a team that lacks high end talent, I think trading back from #8 would be certifiably insane. Even if we adjust the historical trend of picks in the mid1st and later of being 3rd line players for a deep draft, we'd have to also adjust the #8 in the same way, meaning it has a higher likelihood than usual of being a franchise player.

 

 

It all depends on where you think the drop off is.

If Monahan or Lindholm is available at 8, you stay there and take them.

But after those two there I see a good dozen players with very similar potential.

Why decide between Shinkaruk or Ristolainen (for example) at eight if you could have Shinkaruk and Zadorov at 12 and 16 and throw in Domi at 18 for good measure?

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