Player drop offs & inconsistencies under Ruff- here are the stats

[Happy Days]

TOO MANY PROBLEMS/DROP OFFS IN PRODUCTIONS/INCONSISTANSIES WITH TOO MANY PLAYERS MAKE ME FEEL AS IF THERE IS A PROBLEM WITH COACHING & THE SYSTEM.

 

 

Let me start with some of the players that were brought in in recent years. Why did these guys drop off so much offensively?

 

-Cody Hodson goes from 16 goals in 63 games in Vancouver to 3 goals in 20 games here.

 

-Cristian Erhoff goes from 14 goals in back to back seasons in Vancouver to 5 goals here.

 

-Robyn Regehr goes from 17 points in Calgary to 5 points here. He had not been a minus player since the 2002-2003 season yet last year he was a minus 12 with the Sabres.

 

-Ville Leino goes from 19 goals and 53 points in Philly to 8 goals and 25 points under Ruff.

 

-Brad Boys scored has been a 43 & 33 goal scorer in St Louis to 8 goals here in a contract year.

 

-Rob Niedermayer goes from 10 in Jersey to 5 goals here

 

-Raffe Torres had 19 goals in 60 games then comes here and scored 0 in his final 14 games here.

 

-Dominic Moore had 12 goals and 41 points in 63 games to 1 goal and 4 points in his final 18 games here.

 

 

Ok, now lets talk about some other players inconsistancies

 

- Jason Pominville. Yes, he played well for a full season this past year, but for how many seasons before that did he struggle in the first half of the year only to finish strong & get his 20 goals

 

- Tyler Myers is another half season guy. Started off great as NHL rookie of the year? His 2nd year started off weak & finished strong. His 3rd year started off weak & finished strong. Why isn't he better?

 

-Drew Stafford scored 4 hat tricks in a month. The talent is there, yet he goes for so many very long stretches where the guy is invisible.

 

-Mike Weber goes from 17 points and a plus 13 in 58 games in 2010-2011 to 5 points and a minus 19 in 51 games last season

 

-Nathan Gerbe scored about 14 goals in the 2nd half of the 2010-2011 season. Again shows the talent is there, yet why did he only score 6 this last season? Should he be a better player by now since he was an AHL rookie of the year?

 

-Luke Adam comes off a AHL rookie of the year season to start off great in 2011-2012. Then he turns to garbage and can't score at all to a point where he is sent back to Rochester. Why the regression?

 

-Mark Andre Gragnani was AHL defenseman of the year in 2010-2011 & finished the year as the Sabres best player in the playoffs.. The following season it was as if Ruff felt he didn't belong in the league so was traded. Why the regression?

 

 

Other questions/notes

 

-Thomas Vanek - Why did he go from scoring 43, 36, 40 goals to 28, 32, 26 goals over the last few years?

 

-Andrej Sekera - Why was he ohl defenseman of the year & looks great in world tounaments yet is often only a bottom pairing or average defenseman with the Sabres?

 

-Tyler Ennis - Played a lot of center in junior & as AHL rookie of the year. Why didn't Ruff move him to center earlier?

 

-Craig Rivet & Shaone Morrisonn - Why did their careers end so quickly after coming to Buffalo?

 

-Not to mention a variety of goaltending issues (backups that careers ended here/playing times for the goaltenders/etc)

 

 

-The system & player movement - With so many forwards moving from wing to wing, center to wing, and wing to center, combined with all the line juggling, then you thow in so many of the forwards having to look around & cover for defenseman who are pinching in on defense (as a big part of Ruffs system) it seems as if there is too much for the forwards to handle. They have to think too much about where they are playing, the chemistry of the players they are with, and what they have to do to stop their opponents from game to game shift to shift (causing turovers and struggles on offense). Then add injuries to the mix. To me all this causes confusion that leads to unorganization and chaos.

 

Sure the players have to take some responsibility with their play.

I may have forgot some things and I could probably go into some other things that are speculative/questionable, but there are so many issues with so many players that leads me to a coaching problem. Maybe I'm wrong & I'm missing something that you can help me with, but it's the only explination I have. I'd appreciate your thoughts.

 

[LGR4GM]

TOO MANY PROBLEMS/DROP OFFS IN PRODUCTIONS/INCONSISTANSIES WITH TOO MANY PLAYERS MAKE ME FEEL AS IF THERE IS A PROBLEM WITH COACHING & THE SYSTEM.

 

 

Let me start with some of the players that were brought in in recent years. Why did these guys drop off so much offensively?

 

-Cody Hodson goes from 16 goals in 63 games in Vancouver to 3 goals in 20 games here.

 

-Cristian Erhoff goes from 14 goals in back to back seasons in Vancouver to 5 goals here.

 

-Robyn Regehr goes from 17 points in Calgary to 5 points here. He had not been a minus player since the 2002-2003 season yet last year he was a minus 12 with the Sabres.

 

-Ville Leino goes from 19 goals and 53 points in Philly to 8 goals and 25 points under Ruff.

 

-Brad Boys scored has been a 43 & 33 goal scorer in St Louis to 8 goals here in a contract year.

 

-Rob Niedermayer goes from 10 in Jersey to 5 goals here

 

-Raffe Torres had 19 goals in 60 games then comes here and scored 0 in his final 14 games here.

 

-Dominic Moore had 12 goals and 41 points in 63 games to 1 goal and 4 points in his final 18 games here.

 

 

Ok, now lets talk about some other players inconsistancies

 

- Jason Pominville. Yes, he played well for a full season this past year, but for how many seasons before that did he struggle in the first half of the year only to finish strong & get his 20 goals

 

- Tyler Myers is another half season guy. Started off great as NHL rookie of the year? His 2nd year started off weak & finished strong. His 3rd year started off weak & finished strong. Why isn't he better?

 

-Drew Stafford scored 4 hat tricks in a month. The talent is there, yet he goes for so many very long stretches where the guy is invisible.

 

-Mike Weber goes from 17 points and a plus 13 in 58 games in 2010-2011 to 5 points and a minus 19 in 51 games last season

 

-Nathan Gerbe scored about 14 goals in the 2nd half of the 2010-2011 season. Again shows the talent is there, yet why did he only score 6 this last season? Should he be a better player by now since he was an AHL rookie of the year?

 

-Luke Adam comes off a AHL rookie of the year season to start off great in 2011-2012. Then he turns to garbage and can't score at all to a point where he is sent back to Rochester. Why the regression?

 

-Mark Andre Gragnani was AHL defenseman of the year in 2010-2011 & finished the year as the Sabres best player in the playoffs.. The following season it was as if Ruff felt he didn't belong in the league so was traded. Why the regression?

 

 

Other questions/notes

 

-Thomas Vanek - Why did he go from scoring 43, 36, 40 goals to 28, 32, 26 goals over the last few years?

 

-Andrej Sekera - Why was he ohl defenseman of the year & looks great in world tounaments yet is often only a bottom pairing or average defenseman with the Sabres?

 

-Tyler Ennis - Played a lot of center in junior & as AHL rookie of the year. Why didn't Ruff move him to center earlier?

 

-Craig Rivet & Shaone Morrisonn - Why did their careers end so quickly after coming to Buffalo?

 

-Not to mention a variety of goaltending issues (backups that careers ended here/playing times for the goaltenders/etc)

 

 

-The system & player movement - With so many forwards moving from wing to wing, center to wing, and wing to center, combined with all the line juggling, then you thow in so many of the forwards having to look around & cover for defenseman who are pinching in on defense (as a big part of Ruffs system) it seems as if there is too much for the forwards to handle. They have to think too much about where they are playing, the chemistry of the players they are with, and what they have to do to stop their opponents from game to game shift to shift (causing turovers and struggles on offense). Then add injuries to the mix. To me all this causes confusion that leads to unorganization and chaos.

 

Sure the players have to take some responsibility with their play.

I may have forgot some things and I could probably go into some other things that are speculative/questionable, but there are so many issues with so many players that leads me to a coaching problem. Maybe I'm wrong & I'm missing something that you can help me with, but it's the only explination I have. I'd appreciate your thoughts.

I have no desire to go through this entire post to point out the issues with the argument so I will just say, yes, you are missing something and Yes there have been coaching issues. Correlations, not cause and effect.

[Iron Crotch]

People have been writing dissertations on this board lately. I agree that the constant line shuffling is hugely annoying. That's all my tiny brain can handle on a Saturday afternoon. B-)

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Good post superhero

 

Many of the young guys never really progress or seem to regress. Some people don't want to see it, but I do.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Welcome to the board.

 

A well thought out and researched first post. Now, please change your avatar.

 

Many recognize the fact that there seems to be some issues with the coaching in regards to player development. That said, it's well known that LR prefers his players to be well rounded and to play a good two-way game. So, that will reflect in the player stats.

[IKnowPhysics]

Welcome to the board. Bonus points for effort and thoughtfulness on your first post.

 

John Vogl addressed exactly these statistical symptoms in a pair of articles a few weeks ago:

 

"Wheeling and Dealing Failing to Pay Off" http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/sabres-nhl/article920908.ece

Paraphrase: Since the lockout, stats have shown a production drop off for the majority of players that change new teams. Several reasons are cited, including on- and off-ice influences.

 

"Acquisitions Fizzle with Sabres" http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/sabres-nhl/article922507.ece

Paraphrase: Vogl analyzes the stats for Sabres acquisitions (not entirely rigorously, I would contend) and ignores a few of the reasons he cites in the previous article in an attempt to criticize Ruff's player usage.

 

The bottom line is that you acquire players to make your team better, and often that means they have to adjust. We're a better team with Ehrhoff and Regehr, even if their points statistics are worse than they were in their previous seasons.

 

But for each player you list the detriment of, there's a player that's improved. Briere, Drury, Gaustad, Campbell, Hasek, Shields (long, long list) were all in worse places statistically or low draft picks before coming to the Sabres. In fact, many believe that we draft and develop very well. Does Tyler Ennis develop the same if he's a Blue Jacket? How would you know statistically?

 

And how do you attribute all of those statistical symptoms to coaching problems? By default? Does the player take any responsibility? Is it Ruff's fault that Raffi Torres was a fatass? Was it all Ruff's coaching that transformed Hasek from a Chicago backup into an all-time great? Of course not.

 

You supported your ideas with evidence and reasoning, and that's a good start. But if we're just going by correlation and not causation, that can lead to dumbass arguments like:

Ruff and Regier have consistently been with the team, and the team consistently hasn't won the cup. Therefore, as long as we have Ruff and Regier, it means we'll never win the cup. Based on that (il)logic alone, it's silly.

 

To wrap up, I'm just going to quote NS, because I share his sentiments all the way around on this one:

 

Welcome to the board.

 

A well thought out and researched first post. Now, please change your avatar.

 

Many recognize the fact that there seems to be some issues with the coaching in regards to player development. That said, it's well known that LR prefers his players to be well rounded and to play a good two-way game. So, that will reflect in the player stats.

[SwampD]

How long does it take for mere corrolation to actually become proof of causation? Apparently, for most Sabres fans, it's 15+ years.

[deluca67]

How long does it take for mere corrolation to actually become proof of causation? Apparently, for most Sabres fans, it's 15+ years.

It's not fair to judge Ruff unless he is given the talent equal to the Gretzky/Messier Oilers, you know that. Why start trouble? :angry:

[TrueBlueGED]

The thing is, as physics points out, players predominantly see a decrease in performance with their new team. If this happens everywhere, the problem isn't unique to Ruff-coached teams, and thus, is not caused by Ruff.

[K-9]

The thing is, as physics points out, players predominantly see a decrease in performance with their new team. If this happens everywhere, the problem isn't unique to Ruff-coached teams, and thus, is not caused by Ruff.

 

This happens everywhere and in every sport when it comes to FAs and their first year with new teams. The bombshell FAgency signing that perform up to expectations is the exception, not the rule. Again, across all sports.

 

What's also common is that there is often a marked improvement after the first year. I look for Leino and Ehrhoff to rebound nicely. Assuming the injury bug doesn't prevent them from having time to gel and settle in like last season.

 

GO SABRES!!!

[deluca67]

The thing is, as physics points out, players predominantly see a decrease in performance with their new team. If this happens everywhere, the problem isn't unique to Ruff-coached teams, and thus, is not caused by Ruff.

This has been, over time, one of the weaker defenses of Ruff. Compared to how some defend Ruff you would think he is of the stature to overcome such obstacles such as player adjustment periods. You add that to he doesn't handle younger players well and his teams overall are mentally weak, according ti his star goaltender, it makes you wonder why Ruff is defended so staunchly? Does being a former player mean that much? Would a Craig Ramsey get the say defense?

[TrueBlueGED]

This has been, over time, one of the weaker defenses of Ruff. Compared to how some defend Ruff you would think he is of the stature to overcome such obstacles such as player adjustment periods. You add that to he doesn't handle younger players well and his teams overall are mentally weak, according ti his star goaltender, it makes you wonder why Ruff is defended so staunchly? Does being a former player mean that much? Would a Craig Ramsey get the say defense?

 

I'm not defending Ruff at all, I'm saying this is a bogus criticism. And it would be bogus of any other coach here, or any other coach on any other team.

[Claude_Verret]

The thing is, as physics points out, players predominantly see a decrease in performance with their new team. If this happens everywhere, the problem isn't unique to Ruff-coached teams, and thus, is not caused by Ruff.

 

I'm not a Ruff fan at all, but thank you for highlighting a major point that is ignored by the fire Lindy at all costs crowd.

[grinreaper]

Well LR really did a great job with Foligno. Anybody have his AHL stats compared to his NHL stats? (I'm not really asking anyone to look them up) The OP has "cherry picked" his stats. He does show promise though. He at least used a lot of paragraphs in that lengthy post.

[RayFinkle]

It is called very team in the NHL. You should follow some other teams other than just the Sabres and you will see the same thing happens to a majority of teams across the league. 20 goal scorers are 20 goal scores because the are inconsistant. If they consistantly scored, they would be 50 goal scorers.....For every player who "dropped off" under Ruff, another player prospered. Drury and Briere are both filthy rich today thanks to Ruff.

[billsrcursed]

I'd list all the guys who have left and NOT improved, but I'm sure it would be considered rehashing.

[Tyrannustyrannus]

right, Briere and Drury were superstars before they came to Buffalo, and they totally sucked under Ruff.

[Two or less]

right, Briere and Drury were superstars before they came to Buffalo, and they totally sucked under Ruff.

 

Well, he did score 32 goals just two seasons prior to coming to Buffalo, and that was in the low scoring NHL, and 32 goals is the most he ever scored with the Sabres. Drury was a 65+ point player twice with Colorado.

[LGR4GM]

this entire premise is just narrow minded and foolish but continue

[Happy Days]

right, Briere and Drury were superstars before they came to Buffalo, and they totally sucked under Ruff.

 

How far back is that. Sports are what have you done for me lately and the Sabres have missed the playoffs 3 of the last 5 years and have not won a playoff series in the last 5 years.

[Happy Days]

Good post superhero

 

Many of the young guys never really progress or seem to regress. Some people don't want to see it, but I do.

 

Thank you.

 

Many of the young guys dominated/won awards at lower levels. It seems to me as if they should have developed into better NHL players than they have shown so far.

[SwampD]

this entire premise is just narrow minded and foolish but continue

I know you are but what am I?

[LGR4GM]

I know you are but what am I?

lol, fair enough.

 

I just think there are to many factors to say its ruffs fault and there are major issues with the list of "evidence" that proves ruff is at fault. For instance Pominville, he sucked during the 1st half of that year because he had a concussion. Ennis, was actually statistically better but his stats appear worse because he was injured. Boyes sucked before he was traded and continued that trend. I am just saying a lot of other factors go into a player not being up to it then simply the coach. CoHo as a rookie changed systems, no wonder it took him 10 games to figure it out, not to mention he went from 3rd line to 1st... thats a big jump to go through in 2 days. There has been a correlation, there is not a cause and effect situation.

[SwampD]

lol, fair enough.

 

I just think there are to many factors to say its ruffs fault and there are major issues with the list of "evidence" that proves ruff is at fault. For instance Pominville, he sucked during the 1st half of that year because he had a concussion. Ennis, was actually statistically better but his stats appear worse because he was injured. Boyes sucked before he was traded and continued that trend. I am just saying a lot of other factors go into a player not being up to it then simply the coach. CoHo as a rookie changed systems, no wonder it took him 10 games to figure it out, not to mention he went from 3rd line to 1st... thats a big jump to go through in 2 days. There has been a correlation, there is not a cause and effect situation.

Good post. While I agree with almost all of it, when players themselves have said they have had to think too much and couldn't just "play hockey" once they got here, there has to be some element of truth to the "Ruff Effect".

 

I personally think that Ruff's flaws effect the entire team, not just recent arrivals. :devil:

[IKnowPhysics]

How long does it take for mere corrolation to actually become proof of causation? Apparently, for most Sabres fans, it's 15+ years.

 

That's partly my point: it's NOT A MATTER OF TIME. Ruff could be the Sabres coach for 30 years, and if we don't win the Cup, it's still possible that it wasn't his fault we didn't win it. It's about cause and effect.

 

If Ruff's a bad coach, then we don't win. If he's not a bad coach and we still don't win, how do you tell the difference? What's the real problem? Even harder question: Ruff is mostly a winning coach with the Sabres, so how do you concretely gauge if he's a bad coach then?

 

This process of determining whether a coach is good or bad is also resoundingly convoluted by what we hear in the media. Vogl uses statistics (poorly) to criticize Ruff. Bucky uses short-sighted anecdotes (wildly) to smash Regier one day and praise him the next. Regier doesn't want to use excuses, but publicly blames the injuries. Ruff doesn't want to use excuses, and publicly takes all responsibility for losing. Some players say he's a good coach, some players wouldn't agree. Ruff gains praise from national-media sportscasting types for his tenure. Local sports radio types say Ruff's tenure causes him to be tuned out by his players. Ted Black says Ruff gets a clean slate starting when Pegula buys the team.

 

So how the hell do you figure it out?

 

I'm a sciencey guy, so I try to gather facts. tl;dr, I like Ruff.

- Ruff signed a multi-year contract extension with the Sabres last year. So Regier and Pegula think he's good. Good sign.

- He's a Jack Adams award winner and a repeat runner-up, so at least a few hockey-smart people in the Broadcaster's Association think he does good work.

- He was named as assistant coach for Team Canada, not mention he won the Gold in this role, so some hockey-smart people on Team Canada think he does good work.

- He's assembled a pretty damn good resume in the NHL: 16th coach in NHL history to win 500 games, 2nd among active coaches in regular season games coached (12th among all coaches), 3rd among active coaches in regular season wins (12th among all coaches), 5th among active coaches in playoff wins (15th among all coaches), 5th among playoff games coached, 0.562 regular season points percentage, 0.564 playoff game win percentage. History sort of says he's done some good work.

 

Then I look at the detraction. He doesn't have a cup- ten active coaches have won one (and only one) cup. His winning percentage isn't top 10 among active coaches. But then four of the ten active coaches that have won the cup don't have a points percentage that's among the top ten. Inversely, four of the ten coaches leading in points percentage haven't won the cup.

 

So I put all that together and take a stab: how good is Ruff compared to other coaches in the NHL? Top 15? Top 10? 5? Some of his stats rank him with some good company in all-time NHL history. How good is he all time? Top 30? 20?

 

Would a replacement coach be better? Is Ruff the bottle neck in our hockey club that's stopping us from being successful in the long term and winning the cup? Or has he done well with what he's had to work with over the years?

 

Some may make the argument that if he's not winning, he needs to go because at the end of the day, regardless of all of this other crap, he's ultimately responsible and ultimately the scapegoat. And if that were the way the Buffalo Sabres organization did things, Ruff would have been in the unemployment line after three consecutive playoff non-appearances, pre-lockout, before he wins the Jack Adams. But that's not how the Buffalo Sabres organization does things, and I'm a bigger fan because of it.