Is Buffalo One Move Away From Being A Cup Contender

[LGR4GM]

Let's be realistic. We're not one player away from being a Cup contender, we're about three years away. (And at my age, I'm just hoping to live that long.)

 

First of all, we're not going to land Parise, Nash, Semin or Ryan. They want to go to big teams for big bucks and with the cap being raised again, they'll get it. I think we'll be doing very well to get Ott.

 

The three years will give time for Grigorenko, McNabb, Myers, Ennis, and Foligno to blossom. These guys will be the core. Add a supporting cast of good players and you have yourself a contender.

 

Whenever you feel the urge to think of the Sabres a Cup contender, stop a moment and think about Pittsburgh. Crosby, Malkin, Neal, Letang, Fleury, and perhaps Parise and/or Suter. That image will sober you up fast.

Agreed.

 

I don't think this can be the mindframe anymore and Darcy has proved it in the first year of the Pegula Regime. I honestly don't think you can rule the Sabres out of any big time deal from here on out. Don't be surprised if you hear a big name being thrown around with the Sabres being one of the teams mentioned.

I posted this in another thread but it needs repeating,

 

From the Washington Post - http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/capitals/buffalo-sabres-select-russian-c-mikhail-grigorenko-with-12-pick-in-nhl-draft/2012/06/22/gJQALmJGwV_story.html

Regier had spent the week attempting to make a trade for an established player, but said it became quite clear that the asking price was too high.

“To fill one hole and create a bigger one is what we’d have to give up, it is too much for us right now,” he said.

 

Darcy took a look at a big trade and the price is too high (for him). I think he will bank on his prospects panning out and I think his plan is to let them develop not trade them away.

[apuszczalowski]

Agreed.

 

 

I posted this in another thread but it needs repeating,

 

From the Washington Post - http://www.washingto...JGwV_story.html

Regier had spent the week attempting to make a trade for an established player, but said it became quite clear that the asking price was too high.

“To fill one hole and create a bigger one is what we’d have to give up, it is too much for us right now,” he said.

 

Darcy took a look at a big trade and the price is too high (for him). I think he will bank on his prospects panning out and I think his plan is to let them develop not trade them away.

So in other words (in Delucas voice) "Status Quo", exactly what he has been doing, bank on the prospects to develop and become stars and stick with what you got.

[darksabre]

So in other words (in Delucas voice) "Status Quo", exactly what he has been doing, bank on the prospects to develop and become stars and stick with what you got.

 

I'm not sure that plan fits "status quo" as much as it is simply a tactic many GMs use. This team has a little pile of potential stars that could make Darcy look like a damn genius in the next couple years.

 

Ennis

Foligno

Myers

Grigorenko

Girgensons

Hodgson

Pysyk

Armia

[K-9]

The key is to remain healthy. In spite of the glaring wound that the Lucic situation exposed last season, the fact remains that injuries kept us from contending. Especially when we lost Myers and Ehrhoff to finish out the year. We can certainly make the playoffs as presently constituted. And once you're in, you can contend.

 

GO SABRES!!!

[TrueBlueGED]

Frankly, building through the draft and developing your own is how the vast majority of teams win the Cup. What was the last team to really assemble everything through trades or free agency and actually win it all? I know some will point to the Kings...but what if they had traded Kopitar, Brown, Quick before they developed for established talent? I have no idea; just making a point that drafting and developing is the way to go unless you need that 1 singular piece to put you over the top.

 

That's my philosophy anyway: build the right foundation through drafting and development, and once that foundation is in place, take the plunge on selling off futures for that 1 key piece to put it all together. Right now I don't think the Sabres have the proper foundation to trade away our best prospects--I think our best prospects developing over the next year is the foundation we need to be in the right position to make that huge move. Signing a major UFA like Parise is a bit of a different story, since it doesn't take 4-5 high quality pieces to get it done. But even then I don't think we're a Parise away from being a legit contender (Parise and a developed Grigorenko, on the other hand....).

 

The key is to remain healthy. In spite of the glaring wound that the Lucic situation exposed last season, the fact remains that injuries kept us from contending. Especially when we lost Myers and Ehrhoff to finish out the year. We can certainly make the playoffs as presently constituted. And once you're in, you can contend.

 

GO SABRES!!!

 

I disagree with that. Of course it's possible, but it's not something I'd put my money on at all. With a reasonable amount of good fortune I believe the Sabres can easily be a 5-7 seed next season, but I don't think they're a contender when they make it in. Yes, matchups can fall the right way and all that, but in no way do I believe simply making the playoffs makes a team a contender.

[darksabre]

He's not wrong on the point about being healthy though. Being healthy should at least be enough to get us into the playoffs.

[TrueBlueGED]

He's not wrong on the point about being healthy though. Being healthy should at least be enough to get us into the playoffs.

 

To which I agree. With reasonable health, the Sabres are a playoff team. They may not be a successful playoff team, but they'll be there.

[darksabre]

To which I agree. With reasonable health, the Sabres are a playoff team. They may not be a successful playoff team, but they'll be there.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3JPa2mvSQ4

 

:)

[fan2456]

I normally disagree with everything Bullwinkle writes, but in this case he and I are in agreement. I just don't see the Sabre throwing in their hat with these big-name free agents.

 

The main reason having to do with what he have tied up in salary elsewhere. Ville Leino and Thomas Vanek come to mind. And our younger guys are going to start getting paid big bucks. I imagine Ennis is going to get a pretty nice RFA deal. Hodgson is an RFA next season and Regehr is a UFA, so money has to come from somewhere for them.

 

The only way I see the Sabres making a play for one of the big free agents is if they can move salary in Vanek or Leino.

 

What a dream that would be!

[Bullwinkle III]

I normally disagree with everything Bullwinkle writes, but in this case he and I are in agreement. I just don't see the Sabre throwing in their hat with these big-name free agents.

 

The main reason having to do with what he have tied up in salary elsewhere. Ville Leino and Thomas Vanek come to mind. And our younger guys are going to start getting paid big bucks. I imagine Ennis is going to get a pretty nice RFA deal. Hodgson is an RFA next season and Regehr is a UFA, so money has to come from somewhere for them.

 

The only way I see the Sabres making a play for one of the big free agents is if they can move salary in Vanek or Leino.

 

I always agree with everything that Darksabre writes, so I am wondering about this last statement. I agree that we need to free money if we want to make a pitch for a big guy, but what GM in his right mind would even think about getting Leino? Can you think of a single GM who thinks he needs this guy - at that price?

 

IMO Vanek needs to be traded. He has talent to be sure, but he's too inconsistent and too high strung. He would get a good player in return, so I'm all for making that deal although I still don't think a Ryan or Parise would seriously consider Buffalo.

[TheMatrix31]

The key is to remain healthy. In spite of the glaring wound that the Lucic situation exposed last season, the fact remains that injuries kept us from contending. Especially when we lost Myers and Ehrhoff to finish out the year. We can certainly make the playoffs as presently constituted. And once you're in, you can contend.

 

GO SABRES!!!

 

I don't like assessing "contender" status, because anything can happen at any given point. You could have an awesome team on paper and not make it for various reasons, and you could have a pretty run-of-the-mill team and reach the Conference Finals. Pittsburgh looked invincible and they lost in the first round. Eh.

 

With any semblance of luck and more importantly health, I don't see any reason why this team can't make a pretty good showing in the playoffs. We'll continue to tinker, and make some signings/deals. I don't think the "one player" thing has much merit in hockey.

[Weave]

I normally disagree with everything Bullwinkle writes, but in this case he and I are in agreement. I just don't see the Sabre throwing in their hat with these big-name free agents.

 

The main reason having to do with what he have tied up in salary elsewhere. Ville Leino and Thomas Vanek come to mind. And our younger guys are going to start getting paid big bucks. I imagine Ennis is going to get a pretty nice RFA deal. Hodgson is an RFA next season and Regehr is a UFA, so money has to come from somewhere for them.

 

The only way I see the Sabres making a play for one of the big free agents is if they can move salary in Vanek or Leino.

I always agree with everything that Darksabre writes, so I am wondering about this last statement. I agree that we need to free money if we want to make a pitch for a big guy, but what GM in his right mind would even think about getting Leino? Can you think of a single GM who thinks he needs this guy - at that price?

 

IMO Vanek needs to be traded. He has talent to be sure, but he's too inconsistent and too high strung. He would get a good player in return, so I'm all for making that deal although I still don't think a Ryan or Parise would seriously consider Buffalo.

 

If all we are after is one big name FA then we really don't need to free up very much money at all. Assumign Kaleta signs for around $1M and Ennis signs for $2-2.5M there should be over $7M in cap room to play with.

[Koomkie]

If all we are after is one big name FA then we really don't need to free up very much money at all. Assumign Kaleta signs for around $1M and Ennis signs for $2-2.5M there should be over $7M in cap room to play with.

 

any word on ennis? and kaleta?

it would be nice for ennis to be signed a.s.a.p. so we don't have someone offering him an offer sheet and we end up matching it and over paying.

i realize it is not very likely, but i would just hate to be forced into over paying...and i would hate losing ennis even more!

i also want kaleta on this team, but i dont think we have to worry about an offer sheet there.

[CallawaySabres]

any word on ennis? and kaleta?

it would be nice for ennis to be signed a.s.a.p. so we don't have someone offering him an offer sheet and we end up matching it and over paying.

i realize it is not very likely, but i would just hate to be forced into over paying...and i would hate losing ennis even more!

i also want kaleta on this team, but i dont think we have to worry about an offer sheet there.

 

They are working on Ennis right now.

[spndnchz]

any word on ennis? and kaleta?

it would be nice for ennis to be signed a.s.a.p. so we don't have someone offering him an offer sheet and we end up matching it and over paying.

i realize it is not very likely, but i would just hate to be forced into over paying...and i would hate losing ennis even more!

i also want kaleta on this team, but i dont think we have to worry about an offer sheet there.

 

They got their qualifying offers over a month ago. Within the next week we'll know if they're going to arbitration or not.

[darksabre]

I always agree with everything that Darksabre writes, so I am wondering about this last statement. I agree that we need to free money if we want to make a pitch for a big guy, but what GM in his right mind would even think about getting Leino? Can you think of a single GM who thinks he needs this guy - at that price?

 

IMO Vanek needs to be traded. He has talent to be sure, but he's too inconsistent and too high strung. He would get a good player in return, so I'm all for making that deal although I still don't think a Ryan or Parise would seriously consider Buffalo.

 

Well that's the rub. Moving a contract like Leino would give us a lot of room, but who would take it? Probably no one.

 

That's why I don't expect us to be big players in the FA market.

 

Additionally I think Darcy wants to go into next season with a little more cap space in case he wants to make a move at the trade deadline for that one piece that could help us in a playoff run. Not spending to the cap seems like it might be his plan this summer.

[LGR4GM]

I am going to take the opposite side of some people here... meaning we don't need a RW we need a LW. Vanek is a righty who plays left, Ennis is lefty who plays center, and Foligno is a lefty who plays well who knows how he will play for a full season. Thats a lot of ???? about your left side and its not like there is an Armia waiting in the wings either. Leino doesn't do it for me so I am not even including him. Basically depending on Ennis staying at center, our left wing is Vanek, Foligno, Leino... not a lot of depth there.

 

Well that's the rub. Moving a contract like Leino would give us a lot of room, but who would take it? Probably no one.

 

That's why I don't expect us to be big players in the FA market.

 

Additionally I think Darcy wants to go into next season with a little more cap space in case he wants to make a move at the trade deadline for that one piece that could help us in a playoff run. Not spending to the cap seems like it might be his plan this summer.

I agree with this too. I think Leino/Roy don't get moved until the deadline but I could see something maybe happening this summer. Darcy isn't going to trade either for nothing.

[TrueBlueGED]

I always agree with everything that Darksabre writes, so I am wondering about this last statement. I agree that we need to free money if we want to make a pitch for a big guy, but what GM in his right mind would even think about getting Leino? Can you think of a single GM who thinks he needs this guy - at that price?

 

IMO Vanek needs to be traded. He has talent to be sure, but he's too inconsistent and too high strung. He would get a good player in return, so I'm all for making that deal although I still don't think a Ryan or Parise would seriously consider Buffalo.

 

Scott Gomez was traded for a package that included Ryan McDonagh and Brandon Prust. Anything can be done if a GM is dumb enough. Paging Scott Howson and/or Garth Snow.

 

I am going to take the opposite side of some people here... meaning we don't need a RW we need a LW. Vanek is a righty who plays left, Ennis is lefty who plays center, and Foligno is a lefty who plays well who knows how he will play for a full season. Thats a lot of ???? about your left side and its not like there is an Armia waiting in the wings either. Leino doesn't do it for me so I am not even including him. Basically depending on Ennis staying at center, our left wing is Vanek, Foligno, Leino... not a lot of depth there.

 

 

I agree with this too. I think Leino/Roy don't get moved until the deadline but I could see something maybe happening this summer. Darcy isn't going to trade either for nothing.

 

Grigorenko is a lefty. Not that he's a sure thing and removes the question marks, but, if he makes the big club, I see him on the left and Vanek on the right.

[Eleven]

Today's John Vogl article on how long it takes a move to pay off is very interesting: http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/sabres-nhl/article920908.ece

 

He got one thing wrong, though; Canada has not "been celebrating its birth longer than pucks have been finding nets." Hockey is older than Canada's independence by a long time.

 

Anyway, back to the substance of the article: The News analyzed a lot of moves, and found that in the year immediately following the move, the player usually did worse with the new team.

 

Hope for Ville? And Ehrhoff could turn into a monster!

[TrueBlueGED]

Today's John Vogl article on how long it takes a move to pay off is very interesting: http://www.buffalone...ticle920908.ece

 

He got one thing wrong, though; Canada has not "been celebrating its birth longer than pucks have been finding nets." Hockey is older than Canada's independence by a long time.

 

Anyway, back to the substance of the article: The News analyzed a lot of moves, and found that in the year immediately following the move, the player usually did worse with the new team.

 

Hope for Ville? And Ehrhoff could turn into a monster!

 

Old news! :P

 

Not only do free agents tend to perform worse their first season with a new team, forwards in particular tend to have the worst statistical season of their career (outside of rookie seasons) the year they sign with a new team. Just looking at Leino's play the second half of last season he was significantly better, even if the production wasn't there. I expect 40-45 points from him this season, depending on who he ends up playing with.

[qwksndmonster]

Well that's the rub. Moving a contract like Leino would give us a lot of room, but who would take it? Probably no one.

 

That's why I don't expect us to be big players in the FA market.

 

Additionally I think Darcy wants to go into next season with a little more cap space in case he wants to make a move at the trade deadline for that one piece that could help us in a playoff run. Not spending to the cap seems like it might be his plan this summer.

I'm not so sure about this. I expect Darcy to try to make a splash again this year, rather than wait.

[Huckleberry]

signing Parenteau might be good enough splash for me :D

[Bullwinkle III]

Well that's the rub. Moving a contract like Leino would give us a lot of room, but who would take it? Probably no one.

 

That's why I don't expect us to be big players in the FA market.

 

Additionally I think Darcy wants to go into next season with a little more cap space in case he wants to make a move at the trade deadline for that one piece that could help us in a playoff run. Not spending to the cap seems like it might be his plan this summer.

 

See? We agree again!

 

Today's John Vogl article on how long it takes a move to pay off is very interesting: http://www.buffalone...ticle920908.ece

 

He got one thing wrong, though; Canada has not "been celebrating its birth longer than pucks have been finding nets." Hockey is older than Canada's independence by a long time.

 

Anyway, back to the substance of the article: The News analyzed a lot of moves, and found that in the year immediately following the move, the player usually did worse with the new team.

 

Hope for Ville? And Ehrhoff could turn into a monster!

 

I thought the same thing. But the thing that bothered me was Leino's actions when we played the penultimate game of the season in Philly. After the game, he goes to visit his old buddies in the Flyer locker room! If I were on the Sabres, I'd be pissed. Did Briere do that here when the Flyers came to town after the he was traded? I don't think so.

 

IMO this points to Leino's general attitude. He came here for the money, and only for the money. He has no pride in being a Sabre. Perhaps I'm old fashioned, but I remember the days of Schoenfeld, Gare, and Dudley - guys who were actually proud to be a part of this organization and it showed.

 

I'm not so sure about this. I expect Darcy to try to make a splash again this year, rather than wait.

 

I am certain he will try. I'm not saying he won't, it's just that his chances of success are minimal given the situation. I wish him all the luck in the world and I hope Pegulia is ready to fly around the continent to personally persuade these guys.

[deluca67]

I'm not sure that plan fits "status quo" as much as it is simply a tactic many GMs use. This team has a little pile of potential stars that could make Darcy look like a damn genius in the next couple years.

 

Ennis

Foligno

Myers

Grigorenko

Girgensons

Hodgson

Pysyk

Armia

I would guess almost every team has a similar list of prospects.

 

The idea that Regier can't get a deal done because the price is too high is nothing new. It appears that he still overvalues his own players.

 

The core of this team remains Miller, Vanek. Pominville, Roy and Stafford. At least 3 of the 5 need to get moved out before this team can start turning things around. The East will get stronger this off-season, which makes the Sabres task of just making the playoffs even more difficult.

[TrueBlueGED]

I would guess almost every team has a similar list of prospects.

 

The idea that Regier can't get a deal done because the price is too high is nothing new. It appears that he still overvalues his own players.

 

The core of this team remains Miller, Vanek. Pominville, Roy and Stafford. At least 3 of the 5 need to get moved out before this team can start turning things around. The East will get stronger this off-season, which makes the Sabres task of just making the playoffs even more difficult.

 

Or the teams with the players everybody wants are drastically overvaluing them. Regier is far from the only one who has refused to pay the absurd asking price for Nash (and I'm assuming the price on Ryan is probably only 1 piece less). These crappy teams with a star want other teams to rebuild their franchise for them, which isn't going to happen.