JJFIVEOH Posted May 14, 2012 Report Posted May 14, 2012 13 to be exact, both this season and last season. Of goalies who played 60 games this season, Miller ranked 6th in 5v5 GA/60. Ahead of Vezina nominee Pekka Rinne, Feury, Hiller, Price Ward; behind Kiprusoff, Smith, Niemi, Lundqvist, Quick. He's not exactly losing out to Craig Anderson. If you really want to expand the sample, you can take goalies who have played 50 games or more which gives 22. On that list Miller ranks 11th in 5v5 GA/60. The goaltenders who jumped him (weren't on the 60 game list) are Thomas, Lehtonen, Luongo, Theodore, Howard. Thanks. But why 5v5?
fan2456 Posted May 14, 2012 Report Posted May 14, 2012 Thanks. But why 5v5? Just a guess, 5v5 proably works better to prove his point. Apologize if I'm wrong.
TrueBlueGED Posted May 14, 2012 Report Posted May 14, 2012 Thanks. But why 5v5? Just a guess, 5v5 proably works better to prove his point. Apologize if I'm wrong. Because of sample size. The vast majority of hockey is played 5v5, which means a lot of the randomness (bounces, guys falling, whatever) cancels out in the aggregate. 5v4 and 4v5 are so much less time on the ice, and so many fewer shots, that it's far less likely that the randomness cancels out...with too small of a sample, outliers can skew the sample and the portrait painted won't be an accurate representation of reality. 5v5 is simply the best indicator of goaltending performance. And for what it's worth, most stats guys believe that even one season by itself is too small for all of the randomness to wash out, and the only real way to get an accurate picture is to string multiple seasons together. I would actually agree with this latter perspective, but I'm not about to put all of that data together.
fan2456 Posted May 14, 2012 Report Posted May 14, 2012 Okay, but don't all goalies face that same randomness in 4v5, 5v4, 5v3 etc. , balancing it all out. One would think so. I'll buy one season verse many, as sample size is elementary school science. Or it was when I went. The bigger the sample, the more legitamate the results. (That's that whole gobal warming thing on a planet millions of years old and we have good temperature stats for the last 150 years at best.) SOOOO, where does he rank when you use overal GAA and not just 5v5?
TrueBlueGED Posted May 14, 2012 Report Posted May 14, 2012 Okay, but don't all goalies face that same randomness in 4v5, 5v4, 5v3 etc. , balancing it all out. One would think so. I'll buy one season verse many, as sample size is elementary school science. Or it was when I went. The bigger the sample, the more legitamate the results. (That's that whole gobal warming thing on a planet millions of years old and we have good temperature stats for the last 150 years at best.) SOOOO, where does he rank when you use overal GAA and not just 5v5? There's only 32 teams, and 22 goalies for the 50 GP sample, 13 for the 60 GP sample....so no, those don't balance out. Not even close. And the 4v5 and 5v4 data are extreme numbers, so you have a very small subset of the data disproportionately impacting the results. In reality, any goalie stats you want to adjust for team (particularly important when including special teams) and competition quality as well to get a better picture, any numbers being tossed around right now are quite incomplete...but I'm going to be honest, that's significantly more work than I'm willing to put into this discussion. Anyway, for the 50 GP sample Miller ranks 16/22 and for the 60 GP sample he ranks 9/13. If you're actually interested in breaking down goaltenders statistically, http://brodeurisafraud.blogspot.com/ is a great site with a ton of really good posts about it (despite the name, the content is excellent). http://brodeurisafraud.blogspot.com/2012/02/why-counting-trophies-method-of-goalie.html in particular is a more detailed explanation of why single season sample sizes blow for goaltenders than I'm ever going to write, and http://brodeurisafraud.blogspot.com/2012/04/why-lundqvist-should-win-vezina.html has some stuff about situationally-adjusting goaltending numbers.
JJFIVEOH Posted May 14, 2012 Report Posted May 14, 2012 Haha, wasn't really questioning your reasoning, I was just curious why you chose 5v5 instead of overall GAA or SV%. Either way, my point was trying to make somebody sound good by saying he is probably in the top 5 out of goaltenders with 60 games played is misleading to anybody who doesn't really look at the stats because that narrows the field down to a small number of goaltenders. So top 5 isn't really anything to brag about when there's only 13 of them to begin with. To take it one further here are the ranks the last two years in save %. 60 games: 2012: 7/13 2011: 10/13 50 games: 2012: 12/22 2011: 14/25
RazielSabre Posted May 14, 2012 Report Posted May 14, 2012 Does anyone even know what point they're trying to prove anymore :blink:
X. Benedict Posted May 14, 2012 Report Posted May 14, 2012 Lieuwen and Knapp both look a long way from NHL starter and they are the best we have in the pipeline. Sabs really need to be looking at a goalie with one of those four high picks. Yikes. Unless there is exceptional talent. Goaltenders go in the 5th and 6th.
TrueBlueGED Posted May 14, 2012 Report Posted May 14, 2012 Haha, wasn't really questioning your reasoning, I was just curious why you chose 5v5 instead of overall GAA or SV%. Either way, my point was trying to make somebody sound good by saying he is probably in the top 5 out of goaltenders with 60 games played is misleading to anybody who doesn't really look at the stats because that narrows the field down to a small number of goaltenders. So top 5 isn't really anything to brag about when there's only 13 of them to begin with. To take it one further here are the ranks the last two years in save %. 60 games: 2012: 7/13 2011: 10/13 50 games: 2012: 12/22 2011: 14/25 60 games might be somewhat arbitrary, but I think games played is one way to separate clear #1 goaltenders from guys who are more of a 1a and 1b situation.
RazielSabre Posted May 14, 2012 Report Posted May 14, 2012 Since we're not talking about Lieuwen anymore anyway and gone onto other goaltenders who's read Bryz's comments in the Russian sports mag?
BuffaloSoldier2010 Posted May 14, 2012 Report Posted May 14, 2012 There's only 32 teams, and 22 goalies for the 50 GP sample, 13 for the 60 GP sample.... 30 teams :angel: carry on, I'm thoroughly enjoying this discussion!
apuszczalowski Posted May 14, 2012 Report Posted May 14, 2012 played 5 games went 4-1 that year with a 2.2 gaa or something, thats very good. who knows maybe they would have lost in the playoffs somehow if he didnt play those games...ya never know. So now we are using assumptions to prove that one player is better then the other?
5th line wingnutt Posted May 14, 2012 Report Posted May 14, 2012 There's only 32 teams [...] Tell me, do teams 31 and 32 play in Canada or in one of Mr. Obama's 57 states?
TrueBlueGED Posted May 14, 2012 Report Posted May 14, 2012 30 teams :angel: carry on, I'm thoroughly enjoying this discussion! Uuuuuhhhhhh :bag:
spndnchz Posted May 14, 2012 Author Report Posted May 14, 2012 Since we're not talking about Lieuwen anymore anyway and gone onto other goaltenders who's read Bryz's comments in the Russian sports mag? Discussion is in the playoff thread... http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/21162-nhl-2012-playoffs-thread/page__st__1400#entry393122
RazielSabre Posted May 15, 2012 Report Posted May 15, 2012 Discussion is in the playoff thread... http://forums.sabres...400#entry393122 I didn't expect an answer, I was taking the piss.
spndnchz Posted May 31, 2012 Author Report Posted May 31, 2012 ....and... Drew MacIntyre signs with HC Lev in Prague of KHL.
HopefulFuture Posted May 31, 2012 Report Posted May 31, 2012 i whole heartedly think so. come one now derek roy one bad year then ya got vanek pominville stafford myers ennis foligno. what would you call that? i call it talented dude. very. Contrary to your view of the Sabres, they are not an offensive team by any stretch of the imagination. Many of there so called "offensively talented" players go on long vanishing acts that stretch into months for some of them. This team isn't close to the middle of the pack when it comes to offensive upside. And defensively, since the departure of Tallinder and Loods, they have digressed as well. I agree with many, this team has no identity at this time.
IKnowPhysics Posted May 31, 2012 Report Posted May 31, 2012 ....and... Drew MacIntyre signs with HC Lev in Prague of KHL. Seems about right. MacIntyre's a career AHLer and was making too much at $200k, and we could use the development room for at least Knapp and maybe Eidsness and/or Lieuwen while keeping Leggio on the job as Rochester's #1. This way MacIntyre gets at least a little payday in the KHL.
shrader Posted May 31, 2012 Report Posted May 31, 2012 Seems about right. MacIntyre's a career AHLer and was making too much at $200k, and we could use the development room for at least Knapp and maybe Eidsness and/or Lieuwen while keeping Leggio on the job as Rochester's #1. This way MacIntyre gets at least a little payday in the KHL. Eidsness isn't going to get a deal. He started out well, but he has really bottomed out up in North Dakota. There's no room for him in the organization right now.
apuszczalowski Posted May 31, 2012 Report Posted May 31, 2012 Seems about right. MacIntyre's a career AHLer and was making too much at $200k, and we could use the development room for at least Knapp and maybe Eidsness and/or Lieuwen while keeping Leggio on the job as Rochester's #1. This way MacIntyre gets at least a little payday in the KHL. MacIntyre came to Buffalo because he thought he had a better chance playing in the NHL here then in teh Canadians Organisation. I believe they offered him a deal to stay with the Bulldogs but he turned it down, probably thinking he had a shot to be the backup instead of Enroth He hasn't done anything to show he has the ability to be a #1, and wouldn't be a #2 on alot of teams, so the KHL is probably the best for him to play in for a year or 2 and develop, maybe shine there and hope an NHL team comes looking after
IKnowPhysics Posted June 1, 2012 Report Posted June 1, 2012 Eidsness isn't going to get a deal. He started out well, but he has really bottomed out up in North Dakota. There's no room for him in the organization right now. You're probably right; he signed a contract with Reading of the ECHL in April. I'm content with Leggio, Knapp, and Lieuwen.
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