Feel free to bash me...I want the Sabres to miss the playoffs!

[LastPommerFan]

I disagree with Black's assessment somewhat. The substantial change the Sabres made is that they spent money on free agents for the first time I can remember. But they didn't move any notable players. We traded a draft pick so that we could sign Ehrhoff before he hit free agency and we traded Chris Butler and Paul Byron to get Regehr. And we signed Leino.

 

Good moves overall but we kept the team's core completely intact and added players to it. That's not a substantial change to the roster. I would consider Philly's changes substantial.

 

The trades we made at the deadline last month (trading our no.1 prospect for someone else's no.1 prospect, and trading an alternate captain for a draft pick) were more substantial, IMO. They equate to changing who the Sabres are building around and who the team's leaders are.

 

The bolded part is not completely accurate, Tim Connolly was officially eliminated from the playoffs last night.

[shrader]

A little update since I made this post:

 

The Body of Work with the team reasonably whole is now 44 games, vs the 33 games where they struggled with injuries, especially to defensemen.

 

The record over that span is 29-10-5, 71.6 pts%, 117 point pace.

 

Can they play with the big boys?

The Record of that team against the current top 10 is 7-4-1

The Record of that team against the current top 5 is 4-0-1

 

And lets take a look at those Penguins, who were so good at battling through injuries: They now have 3 D-men out with injuries, and they've lost 2 of their last 3 by a combined score of 13-6 against the senators and the islanders.

 

The Buffalo Sabres, with the current Roster, is a very very good team.

 

I like their chances.

 

One question does immediately come to mind though. Can they stay healthy?

[LastPommerFan]

One question does immediately come to mind though. Can they stay healthy?

 

Absolutely, that is the most important question now, but I think that question applies to all 16 teams in the playoffs every year.

 

I think we can absorb injuries to 1 defensman (plus 1 for a short period of time, 1-2 games) and 2 forwards (not including Hecht). Beyond that we are in trouble. McNabb is a nice 8th d-man for a brief stint, and Tropp has been a solid replacement.

 

And Miller. Miller is irreplaceable for the rest of the season/playoffs. If he goes down for more than a game, or with another concussion at all, I believe we are doomed.

[dEnnis the Menace]

A little update since I made this post:

 

The Body of Work with the team reasonably whole is now 44 games, vs the 33 games where they struggled with injuries, especially to defensemen.

 

The record over that span is 29-10-5, 71.6 pts%, 117 point pace.

 

Can they play with the big boys?

The Record of that team against the current top 10 is 7-4-1

The Record of that team against the current top 5 is 4-0-1

 

And lets take a look at those Penguins, who were so good at battling through injuries: They now have 3 D-men out with injuries, and they've lost 2 of their last 3 by a combined score of 13-6 against the senators and the islanders.

 

The Buffalo Sabres, with the current Roster, is a very very good team.

 

I like their chances.

 

The bolded parts:

I did not know that, and seeing that in black and white is astounding to me.

[Claude_Verret]

Absolutely, that is the most important question now, but I think that question applies to all 16 teams in the playoffs every year.

 

I think we can absorb injuries to 1 defensman (plus 1 for a short period of time, 1-2 games) and 2 forwards (not including Hecht). Beyond that we are in trouble. McNabb is a nice 8th d-man for a brief stint, and Tropp has been a solid replacement.

 

And Miller. Miller is irreplaceable for the rest of the season/playoffs. If he goes down for more than a game, or with another concussion at all, I believe we are doomed.

 

Nonsense!! Losing not one, but up to four of your top six D is merely a minor speed bump on the road map to success. Really it's true, you can ask any of the dozens of astute Canes fans who have told me this. <_<

[shrader]

Absolutely, that is the most important question now, but I think that question applies to all 16 teams in the playoffs every year.

 

I think we can absorb injuries to 1 defensman (plus 1 for a short period of time, 1-2 games) and 2 forwards (not including Hecht). Beyond that we are in trouble. McNabb is a nice 8th d-man for a brief stint, and Tropp has been a solid replacement.

 

And Miller. Miller is irreplaceable for the rest of the season/playoffs. If he goes down for more than a game, or with another concussion at all, I believe we are doomed.

 

And since everyone faces injuries come playoff time, they're going to have to win after losing a guy or two. Some just are better at that than others.

 

And in terms of the 8th defenseman, I get the feeling that the more experienced Brennan would wind up getting that shot first over McNabb in the playoffs. Hopefully we don't find out.

[LabattBlue]

And since everyone faces injuries come playoff time, they're going to have to win after losing a guy or two. Some just are better at that than others.

 

And in terms of the 8th defenseman, I get the feeling that the more experienced Brennan would wind up getting that shot first over McNabb in the playoffs. Hopefully we don't find out.

If cap space doesn't come into play come playoff time, I am wondering if the Sabres first call-up from Rochester in the event of an injury to a blueliner would be Morrisson.

 

I still don't think his play in 10-11 was as bad as some here made it out to be.

[shrader]

If cap space doesn't come into play come playoff time, I am wondering if the Sabres first call-up from Rochester in the event of an injury to a blueliner would be Morrisson.

 

I still don't think his play in 10-11 was as bad as some here made it out to be.

 

He would need to be exposed to re-entry waivers though. If you're the Sabres opponent, how could you possibly let him clear?

[LastPommerFan]

if he's an emergency recall, no waivers.

[shrader]

if he's an emergency recall, no waivers.

 

They do need to IR people in order to bring someone else up as an injury recall though. That means they're out at least 7 days. If someone goes down to what looks like a one or two day thing, the team is going to call up Brennan or McNabb first. I suppose they could try to bring up Morrisonn since there really would be no real downfall to losing him.

[LabattBlue]

He would need to be exposed to re-entry waivers though. If you're the Sabres opponent, how could you possibly let him clear?

Even come playoff time?

[nfreeman]

A little update since I made this post:

 

The Body of Work with the team reasonably whole is now 44 games, vs the 33 games where they struggled with injuries, especially to defensemen.

 

The record over that span is 29-10-5, 71.6 pts%, 117 point pace.

 

Can they play with the big boys?

The Record of that team against the current top 10 is 7-4-1

The Record of that team against the current top 5 is 4-0-1

 

And lets take a look at those Penguins, who were so good at battling through injuries: They now have 3 D-men out with injuries, and they've lost 2 of their last 3 by a combined score of 13-6 against the senators and the islanders.

 

The Buffalo Sabres, with the current Roster, is a very very good team.

 

I like their chances.

 

Excellent post, if a bit rosy-eyed.

 

Just to argue: which regulars were out and in what combinations? i.e. I don't think it's fair to give the Sabres a pass for mailing in and losing a game in which Boyes and Weber were out. Miller and Myers? Much more reasonable.

[shrader]

Even come playoff time?

 

Yes, all the rules still apply. If not there would be nothing to stop a team from stashing a bunch of players in the minors and waiting until the playoffs. Grangnani last year is a great example of how all the waiver rules still apply during the post season. They didn't send him back to Portland for their playoffs after we were eliminated because he would have had to clear waivers. With the post season he had, someone would have taken him.

[LastPommerFan]

Excellent post, if a bit rosy-eyed.

 

Just to argue: which regulars were out and in what combinations? i.e. I don't think it's fair to give the Sabres a pass for mailing in and losing a game in which Boyes and Weber were out. Miller and Myers? Much more reasonable.

 

I had the list in the original post, but it is important to stress that I'm not trying to excuse the team for the way they reacted to the rash of injuries, it was terrible and disappointing. My point is that this roster, while reasonably healthy (1-2 starters out), is ridiculously good. You can't be "hot" for 44 games spread out between the start and end of the season. The body of work that is Europe-Veteran's Day plus All-Star Break to now is too large to be considered an anomaly of over-achievement. This team is a top 8 team, and the top 8 teams have the best shot to win the cup.

[dudacek]

 

 

I had the list in the original post, but it is important to stress that I'm not trying to excuse the team for the way they reacted to the rash of injuries, it was terrible and disappointing. My point is that this roster, while reasonably healthy (1-2 starters out), is ridiculously good. You can't be "hot" for 44 games spread out between the start and end of the season. The body of work that is Europe-Veteran's Day plus All-Star Break to now is too large to be considered an anomaly of over-achievement. This team is a top 8 team, and the top 8 teams have the best shot to win the cup.

 

I think I'm with you, but lose three of the next five and it's still golf course time.

If we are as good as your numbers suggest that won't happen, but we still have to play the games.

The way we finish, including (I hope) playoffs is needed before anyone can get a real handle on this team.

[bunomatic]

I think I'm with you, but lose three of the next five and it's still golf course time.

If we are as good as your numbers suggest that won't happen, but we still have to play the games.

The way we finish, including (I hope) playoffs is needed before anyone can get a real handle on this team.

 

And the way we handle the grind that is playoff hockey. How we handle the lack of calls in playoff hockey. How we play through the inevitable injuries in playoff hockey. How we handle the adversity we face in playoff hockey. This is where this team should be judged if the goal is to win the cup in the very near future. Don't get me wrong this run has been a revelation and is nice but...

[TrueBlueGED]

And the way we handle the grind that is playoff hockey. How we handle the lack of calls in playoff hockey. How we play through the inevitable injuries in playoff hockey. How we handle the adversity we face in playoff hockey. This is where this team should be judged if the goal is to win the cup in the very near future. Don't get me wrong this run has been a revelation and is nice but...

 

I don't think any reasonable person would disagree with that. The playoffs are the test and the outcome will determine just what the team needs to do this offseason. If they flunk (get dismantled in 4-5 games), the "blow it up" calls will be loud and at least most would agree serious changes are needed. If they get a C (give a top team all they can handle and barely lose in 7 games) then the focus will be on what degree of turnover is needed to get over the hump. If they ace it (big upset in the 1st round, and after that who knows), then I think the conversation becomes focused on what pieces need to be added to the current foundation to go that extra mile.

[nfreeman]

I had the list in the original post, but it is important to stress that I'm not trying to excuse the team for the way they reacted to the rash of injuries, it was terrible and disappointing. My point is that this roster, while reasonably healthy (1-2 starters out), is ridiculously good. You can't be "hot" for 44 games spread out between the start and end of the season. The body of work that is Europe-Veteran's Day plus All-Star Break to now is too large to be considered an anomaly of over-achievement. This team is a top 8 team, and the top 8 teams have the best shot to win the cup.

 

Which post? This one?

...

 

I'm going to Cherry Pick a set of games here, but my justification is as follows:

 

11/13 Ryan Miller - Concussion

11/17 Mike Weber - Upper Body

11/20 Tyler Myers - Broken Wrist

11/24 Brad Boyes - Right Knee

11/30 Jordan Leopold - Upper Body

12/3 Patrick Kaleta - Lower Body

12/4 Paul Gaustad - Upper Body

12/8 Nathan Gerbe - Concussion

12/14 Ville Leino - Lower Body

12/18 Tyler Ennis - Ankle

12/29 Andre Sekera - Upper Body

12/31 Christian Ehrhoff - Upper Body

 

That is a list only of the injuries to regular starters that warranted placing them on injured reserve to free up a roster spot under the 23 man limit to call up a minor league player to fill the void. No stretching the reality by including day-to-day injuries to starters or any injuries to minor league call-ups.

 

...

 

If this is the post you are referring to, it doesn't really tell us which games, or how many games, the Sabres were missing the number of key players that would create a reasonable excuse for losing. Put another way, that list doesn't support your theory that when the Sabres have their "real" team, they are a good team. It doesn't refute your theory either; it just doesn't provide the necessary data. I.e. I can't tell from that list how many games the Sabres were missing both Miller and Myers, or both Myers and Ehrhoff, etc.

 

I'm not saying you should do that work and post the results (although I certainly would be happy if you did), but I don't think you can make a strong case without the supporting data. And I do think (anecdotally, not scientifically) that there were a LOT of games between, say, games, 15 and 55 in which the Sabres had enough of their key guys in the lineup that they should've played much, much better than they did.

[spndnchz]

Which post? This one?

 

 

If this is the post you are referring to, it doesn't really tell us which games, or how many games, the Sabres were missing the number of key players that would create a reasonable excuse for losing. Put another way, that list doesn't support your theory that when the Sabres have their "real" team, they are a good team. It doesn't refute your theory either; it just doesn't provide the necessary data. I.e. I can't tell from that list how many games the Sabres were missing both Miller and Myers, or both Myers and Ehrhoff, etc.

 

I'm not saying you should do that work and post the results (although I certainly would be happy if you did), but I don't think you can make a strong case without the supporting data. And I do think (anecdotally, not scientifically) that there were a LOT of games between, say, games, 15 and 55 in which the Sabres had enough of their key guys in the lineup that they should've played much, much better than they did.

 

308 man games lost, Sabres tied for 8th in league. I get your point someone needs to make a chart showing player overlap and W/L, Pts/pts available etc.

 

I've looked at differentials of injured players vs their callup. There is only about a 10 goal difference through the first half of the season. Maybe that would make a difference in those one goal games but IMO not much for the overall record. Again IMO, it's having AHL defenseman up, 3 or 4 at some games that hurt the Sabres

[Claude_Verret]

308 man games lost, Sabres tied for 8th in league. I get your point someone needs to make a chart showing player overlap and W/L, Pts/pts available etc.

 

I've looked at differentials of injured players vs their callup. There is only about a 10 goal difference through the first half of the season. Maybe that would make a difference in those one goal games but IMO not much for the overall record. Again IMO, it's having AHL defenseman up, 3 or 4 at some games that hurt the Sabres

 

Your opinion.....is WRONG!! At least according to the multitude of knowledgeable hockey fans here in NC who will tell you that this is simply not the case.

[nfreeman]

308 man games lost, Sabres tied for 8th in league. I get your point someone needs to make a chart showing player overlap and W/L, Pts/pts available etc.

 

I've looked at differentials of injured players vs their callup. There is only about a 10 goal difference through the first half of the season. Maybe that would make a difference in those one goal games but IMO not much for the overall record. Again IMO, it's having AHL defenseman up, 3 or 4 at some games that hurt the Sabres

 

This is certainly a reasonable opinion. They definitely started playing better once Myers returned and got back in the groove and once Ehrhoff and Regehr returned.

 

If I were going to pick one factor, though, it would be Miller's sub-par play for roughly half the season. I'd guess that much of this was concussion-related.

 

Having said that, I do think that other than Pommer the forwards have well underachieved this year until about a month ago. If as a group they had "played to their handicap" (as I've heard TB describe it), IMHO the team would have been able to overcome much of the injuries. Obviously I'm happy with their recent play, but this season has done nothing to allay my big-picture concerns about this team's makeup, especially the "core" group of forwards. I'm just not confident that they are mentally tough enough to produce in the playoffs, when the game gets much harder.

 

We'll see. Hopefully I'm wrong and they really have grown up and turned the corner.

[LastPommerFan]

This is certainly a reasonable opinion. They definitely started playing better once Myers returned and got back in the groove and once Ehrhoff and Regehr returned.

 

If I were going to pick one factor, though, it would be Miller's sub-par play for roughly half the season. I'd guess that much of this was concussion-related.

 

Having said that, I do think that other than Pommer the forwards have well underachieved this year until about a month ago. If as a group they had "played to their handicap" (as I've heard TB describe it), IMHO the team would have been able to overcome much of the injuries. Obviously I'm happy with their recent play, but this season has done nothing to allay my big-picture concerns about this team's makeup, especially the "core" group of forwards. I'm just not confident that they are mentally tough enough to produce in the playoffs, when the game gets much harder.

 

We'll see. Hopefully I'm wrong and they really have grown up and turned the corner.

 

I keep writing, "especially defensemen" when I talk about injuries because I think that everything flows from there. The way the rest of the team operates, having sound blueliners is absolutely critical. I stressed this point this past off-season. Miller is a positional goaltender. He is a world beater when he knows where his d-men are going to be. That is precisely why he owned the Olympic Tourney. Gleason, Johnson, Johnson, Orpik, Rafalski, Suter, Whitney. He could count on those guys and play the odds. He's the absolute best at doing that. The way Lindy's offensive system works, the d are a critical component to getting good scoring chances.

 

McNabb and Gragnani were in every game from 11/26 through 1/14, that means at least 2 defensemen were out. Joe Finley played 5 games in that span. TJ Brennen 8. That is going to dismantle any team, especially one that plays our style. I wish we had the personal fortitude to rise above that. It would have been amazing. But I don't think it's a huge negative mark on anyone's resume that they struggled mightily.

[nfreeman]

McNabb and Gragnani were in every game from 11/26 through 1/14, that means at least 2 defensemen were out. Joe Finley played 5 games in that span. TJ Brennen 8. That is going to dismantle any team, especially one that plays our style. I wish we had the personal fortitude to rise above that. It would have been amazing. But I don't think it's a huge negative mark on anyone's resume that they struggled mightily.

 

I agree that defensemen are critical in the Sabres' system, but the bolded part is incorrect. MAG was in the top 6 -- he was ahead of Weber on the depth chart. So MAG and McNabb being in those games means only that one top-6 defenseman was out. Obviously, Finley and/or Brennen's presence means that more than 1 top-6 guy was out.

[Weave]

Having said that, I do think that other than Pommer the forwards have well underachieved this year until about a month ago. If as a group they had "played to their handicap" (as I've heard TB describe it), IMHO the team would have been able to overcome much of the injuries.

 

This comment right here was my biggest beef with the team up until the trade deadline.

 

I don't disagree with the idea that injuries to our D was a significant part of the teams' record earlier this year, but I cannot forget all of the GDT's with poster after poster spouting incredulity at the lack of effort that guys like Roy and Stafford were displaying during that period. You cannot deny all of the short arms when passes were just off mark, the lack of hustle to free pucks, and the unwillingness to make physical contact that was on display during the middle half of the season. I am glad that those things have changed currently. But I don't believe that health of our top 6 D-men had anything to do with it.

[deluca67]

This comment right here was my biggest beef with the team up until the trade deadline.

 

I don't disagree with the idea that injuries to our D was a significant part of the teams' record earlier this year, but I cannot forget all of the GDT's with poster after poster spouting incredulity at the lack of effort that guys like Roy and Stafford were displaying during that period. You cannot deny all of the short arms when passes were just off mark, the lack of hustle to free pucks, and the unwillingness to make physical contact that was on display during the middle half of the season. I am glad that those things have changed currently. But I don't believe that health of our top 6 D-men had anything to do with it.

The lack of consistency is always going to be a problem with this roster. There is a reason why this team is making a made dash to 8th place and it has nothing to do with injuries. The "core" has been in place for nearly the entire season. Unless changes are made having a team that hangs around and hopefully gets hot enough to just make it to 7th or 8th and a 1st round exit is the best fans can hope for.