If there is a rebuild, who do you want to get rid of?

[nfreeman]

It's quite possible that I'm kidding myself, but it just seems inevitable to me at this point that something is going to happen. It could be a trade or waiver of an inconsequential player, it could be a trade of an underachieving top 6 forward, it could be Lindy getting canned, or any or all of the above -- but it feels like DR is going to be gone by the summer if not earlier.

 

If that's the case, a new GM is most likely going to come in, survey the wreckage and start moving some guys out in order to reshape the team in the way he thinks will work best.

 

If I were that new GM, I'd have a few categories: (i) guys that need to be gone in order to let a new identity develop on the team, (ii) guys that could be traded if appropriate value is received in return and (iii) guys that I want to build around and accordingly would not trade unless there was a very compelling trade to be made.

 

Here are my lists based on the above categories:

 

Guys that Need to be Gone.

 

Pommer -- he's a good player, but he's well overpaid, not good enough to be a difference-maker and has captained the team into the abyss.

Roy -- it's all been said already.

Hecht -- on paper I'd be fine with bringing him back at $1.5MM per year, but he's one of the guys who's led the charge to mediocrity and needs to be swept clean by the new broom.

Boyes -- similarly, on paper I'd be fine with bringing him back cheaply, but there has to be accountability for long-term failure to produce.

Leopold -- he's OK, but not great, a bit overpaid, not physical, not a difference-maker, they have a lot of defensemen, and I want the salary slot to use towards a good player.

Gragnani -- he's taken a disproportionate amount of criticism IMHO, but he's just OK and there are other defensemen I'd rather see in his slot.

 

Guys that Could be Traded for Appropriate Value but that I'd be fine with Keeping.

 

Vanek -- also a good player, but overpaid and not elite. I wouldn't look to unload him, but I'd trade him in a heartbeat for a truly elite player.

Stafford -- I recognize that many here detest him. I'd rather not give up on a guy with his size and skill just yet, but I fully understand those who do.

Ennis -- had a great rookie year and got lost with injuries this year amid the sea of mediocrity. We can't have 3 smurfs in the top 6, but I think we can have 2.

Gaustad -- I only want him back as a #4 center at $1.5MM per year or so. He really crapped the bed in Lucic-Miller, so I can understand those who would put him in category #1.

Sekera -- I'd like to keep him as I think he has Soupy potential, but if he can bring a good return, I'm OK.

Miller -- I think he will recapture his mojo at some point. However, he costs too much in an era of interchangeable goalies and bears a good amount of the blame for this year's debacle.

Enroth -- Not ready to be a #1 goalie IMHO, but could garner a good return in trade from a team that disagrees.

 

Guys that I want to Build Around.

 

Gerbe

Kaleta -- he doesn't cost much, he hits, he draws penalties, he kills penalties and the Sabres need to keep as much grit as possible.

Leino -- included here because it would look Mickey Mouse to trade him right after signing him and would impair their ability to get future UFAs

Adam

Kassian

Myers

Ehrhoff

Regehr

Weber

McNabb

 

Irrelevant

 

Ellis

McCormick

 

 

I'd like to see how others feel about these categories and views on how the roster breaks down.

[obstructedorangeseats]

Substitute Stafford for Pommer on your list, and move Vanek into the protected category (with the exception of a major deal bringing back a #1 center) and I think you're pretty much on the mark. I'm a bit more ambivalent on Gaustad, too. Without the physicality he used to bring, I'm bearish on him going forward.

[dEnnis the Menace]

It's quite possible that I'm kidding myself, but it just seems inevitable to me at this point that something is going to happen. It could be a trade or waiver of an inconsequential player, it could be a trade of an underachieving top 6 forward, it could be Lindy getting canned, or any or all of the above -- but it feels like DR is going to be gone by the summer if not earlier.

 

If that's the case, a new GM is most likely going to come in, survey the wreckage and start moving some guys out in order to reshape the team in the way he thinks will work best.

 

If I were that new GM, I'd have a few categories: (i) guys that need to be gone in order to let a new identity develop on the team, (ii) guys that could be traded if appropriate value is received in return and (iii) guys that I want to build around and accordingly would not trade unless there was a very compelling trade to be made.

 

Here are my lists based on the above categories:

 

Guys that Need to be Gone.

 

Pommer -- he's a good player, but he's well overpaid, not good enough to be a difference-maker and has captained the team into the abyss.

Roy -- it's all been said already.

Hecht -- on paper I'd be fine with bringing him back at $1.5MM per year, but he's one of the guys who's led the charge to mediocrity and needs to be swept clean by the new broom.

Boyes -- similarly, on paper I'd be fine with bringing him back cheaply, but there has to be accountability for long-term failure to produce.

Leopold -- he's OK, but not great, a bit overpaid, not physical, not a difference-maker, they have a lot of defensemen, and I want the salary slot to use towards a good player.

Gragnani -- he's taken a disproportionate amount of criticism IMHO, but he's just OK and there are other defensemen I'd rather see in his slot.

 

Guys that Could be Traded for Appropriate Value but that I'd be fine with Keeping.

 

Vanek -- also a good player, but overpaid and not elite. I wouldn't look to unload him, but I'd trade him in a heartbeat for a truly elite player.

Stafford -- I recognize that many here detest him. I'd rather not give up on a guy with his size and skill just yet, but I fully understand those who do.

Ennis -- had a great rookie year and got lost with injuries this year amid the sea of mediocrity. We can't have 3 smurfs in the top 6, but I think we can have 2.

Gaustad -- I only want him back as a #4 center at $1.5MM per year or so. He really crapped the bed in Lucic-Miller, so I can understand those who would put him in category #1.

Sekera -- I'd like to keep him as I think he has Soupy potential, but if he can bring a good return, I'm OK.

Miller -- I think he will recapture his mojo at some point. However, he costs too much in an era of interchangeable goalies and bears a good amount of the blame for this year's debacle.

Enroth -- Not ready to be a #1 goalie IMHO, but could garner a good return in trade from a team that disagrees.

 

Guys that I want to Build Around.

 

Gerbe

Kaleta -- he doesn't cost much, he hits, he draws penalties, he kills penalties and the Sabres need to keep as much grit as possible.

Leino -- included here because it would look Mickey Mouse to trade him right after signing him and would impair their ability to get future UFAs

Adam

Kassian

Myers

Ehrhoff

Regehr

Weber

McNabb

 

Irrelevant

 

Ellis

McCormick

 

 

I'd like to see how others feel about these categories and views on how the roster breaks down.

 

There are two I would change, but otherwise, you nailed it. I think Pommers should be down one level (the for the right value cat.) and Vanek to the build around catagory. I would not trade Vanek, and I would want something in return for Pom. Even tho him being gone isn't as significant as others who have walked, I'd still like to see value on return. And Vanek could and should captain this team in the future imo.

 

Very good post as usual

 

EDIT: 3 players: I am ready to give up on Stafford.

[darksabre]

Unfortunately I have to file Kaleta under irrelevant. He might be a fan favorite but he's only noticeable because he does things that other players should be doing.

 

Get some real players who work hard and Pat Kaleta isn't so important anymore.

[Tyrannustyrannus]

This Pominville hatred is getting ridiculous. He's a PPG player this season. Just because he doesn't smack people around like Kaleta doesn't make him a bad player.

 

I would dump everyone except Vanek, Pominville, Adam, Myers, Erhoff, Regehr, and Miller. And if Miller doesn't shape up after that then he's gone too.

[Who Else?]

Disregarding salary, because if you are getting rid of guys, you can make the numbers work any which way.

 

I love the Defence, maybe not how they play everynight, but more of what they are capable of. I would build around them and use them as the core. Could certainly do without Leopold and Gragnani, but when everyone is back those two should be the #7 and 8 respectively.

 

As for the Goalies, if Miller cannot excel behind this defense, then I want him gone. Enroth is a more than adaquit back up. I would like to see him 25-30 times a year. I really believe behind the D, the Sabres won't need an elite goalie, just a good one like what Minnesota has done over the past ten years.

 

At forward, keep Vanek and Pomminstein together. Everyone else can go and Roy, Stafford, and Gaustad must. I hate to put Gaustad in that list but he is a part of the core that produces nothing.

 

 

Sorry for deviating from the format.

[nbash]

Nice post, agree on many fronts but Pommer and Vanek stay -- they are literally the only players on the team with any chemistry, you don't lose that, you build on it.

[dEnnis the Menace]

Disregarding salary, because if you are getting rid of guys, you can make the numbers work any which way.

 

I love the Defence, maybe not how they play everynight, but more of what they are capable of. I would build around them and use them as the core. Could certainly do without Leopold and Gragnani, but when everyone is back those two should be the #7 and 8 respectively.

 

As for the Goalies, if Miller cannot excel behind this defense, then I want him gone. Enroth is a more than adaquit back up. I would like to see him 25-30 times a year. I really believe behind the D, the Sabres won't need an elite goalie, just a good one like what Minnesota has done over the past ten years.

 

At forward, keep Vanek and Pomminstein together. Everyone else can go and Roy, Stafford, and Gaustad must. I hate to put Gaustad in that list but he is a part of the core that produces nothing.

 

 

Sorry for deviating from the format.

 

There was a topic on potential points versus real points a while back, and Connolly was the front runner in that catagory. The defense is the same way. I don't wanna hear about their potential, I want to see them perform!

[That Aud Smell]

 

Guys that Need to be Gone.

 

Pommer -- he's a good player, but he's well overpaid, not good enough to be a difference-maker and has captained the team into the abyss.

Stafford -- hey mr. mouse potato: take your douchey-smirk, weird neck, hey-brah attitude, and hit the bricks.

 

Guys that Could be Traded for "Appropriate" Value but that I'd be fine with Keeping.

 

Pommer -- a solid, 2-way, top-6 forward. Overpaid.

Stafford -- I recognize that many here detest him. I'd rather not give up on a guy with his size and skill just yet, but I fully understand those who do.

 

agreed, except as noted above regarding pominville and stafford (whom i'd basically swap).

 

i'm also awfully close to saying we can take or leave kaleta, lump him in with ellis and mccormick. but he's shown enough to warrant a spot on the 4th line and spot PK duty.

[FolignosJock]

agreed, except as noted above regarding pominville and stafford (whom i'd basically swap).

 

i'm also awfully close to saying we can take or leave kaleta, lump him in with ellis and mccormick. but he's shown enough to warrant a spot on the 4th line and spot PK duty.

 

 

Today on WGR ROBY said something along the lines of " This guys has taken more hits, gotten more bruises, cuts and has spilled more blood for this organization that maybe anyone in such a small amount of time" That is what I love about Kaleta and you dont find a lot of players like that Roby said something about when you find a guy thats willing to skate through a brick wall like that you keep your meat hooks on him. If anyone can find a transcript of this mornings show that would be awesome.

[LTS]

Here's my thoughts and contracts matter:

 

Vanek - $7.1m - 2014-15 (Keep him unless you get an absolute Top 5 in the NHL center)

Pominville - $5.3m - 2013-14 (Trade if possible, he's a PPG player but the $5.3 makes him hard to dump, I think we're stuck with him unless we bury him)

Leino - $4.5m - 2016-17 (He's here until he shows his $4.5m has value to another team and then I think we'd say he's a value to us)

Boyes - $4m - 2011-12 (Sign for 3rd line or let him go, no more than 1.75m)

Roy - $4m -2013-14 (I'm just considering him traded already, he's here unless that happens however)

Stafford - $4m - 2014-15 (he'll be here until someone believes he's worth $4m, see Leino)

Hecht - $3.5m - 2011-12 (3rd line center at $1.5m or let him walk if you can find someone else, see Boyes)

Gaustad - $2.3m - 2011-12 (4th line center at $2m or let him walk if you can find someone else, see Boyes, Hecht)

Gerbe - $1.4m - 2013-14 (Keep him)

McCormick - $1.2m - 2013-14 (He's traded, buried, or in the lineup. I don't see him being traded, we could bury him)

Kaleta - $907k - 2011-12 (Let him go, we can find someone else, I think he's got a rep now and it hurts him)

Ennis - 875k - 2011-12 (Let him go)

Adam - $875k - 2012-13 (Keep)

Ellis - $525k - 2012013 (Keep, his work ethic is perfect on the 4th line as is his salary, and he's not out of place on higher lines)

Regehr - $4m - 2012-13 (Keep, until his contract expires)

Ehrhoff - $4m - 2018-19 (actually longer, but he's not going anywhere with that contract, not right now)

Leopold - $3m - 2012-13 (trade him)

Sekera - $2.75m - 2014-15 (I don't think he can get traded but I would, otherwise he's on the team)

Myers - $5.5m - 2018-19 (longer again, and that's his cap hit next year.. he's staying.. never get rid of him.. in 3 years we'll be marveling how we have someone like him at $5.5m)

Weber - $950k - 2012-13 (keep him in 5/6 role)

McNabb - $900k - 2013-14 (keep him, period)

Gragnani - $550k - 2011-12 (let him go, unless someone is desperate to trade for him this year)

Miller - $6.2m - 2013-14 (trade him or we keep him)

Enroth - $675k - 2012-13 (keep him)

Foligno - $900k - 2013-14 (keep)

Brennan - $875k - 2011-12 (sign him up, he's worth it)

Kassian - $870k - 2013-14 (keep)

Szczechura - $525k - 2011-12 (keep, sign him up a level, he's a good fill in)

 

So after this season we can let Hecht, Boyes Gaustad, Gragnani, Ennis, and Kaleta walk away. That opens spots for Foligno, Kassian on the club, and 3 variable slots.

Trade Roy - that opens a spot for someone.

 

The forwards will look different next year, the defense is pretty much set and I kind of like: Myers, McNabb, Regehr, Ehrhoff, Weber, Brennan/Sekera...

 

Today on WGR ROBY said something along the lines of " This guys has taken more hits, gotten more bruises, cuts and has spilled more blood for this organization that maybe anyone in such a small amount of time" That is what I love about Kaleta and you dont find a lot of players like that Roby said something about when you find a guy thats willing to skate through a brick wall like that you keep your meat hooks on him. If anyone can find a transcript of this mornings show that would be awesome.

 

I treat anything Robitaille says as iffy, at best. While I think Kaleta can be valuable he's going to have to go the route of Matt Cooke in order to stay in the league. Will this make him effective at that point? He's going to be a different player. He'll still skate hard, he'll put a body on people when he can, but he won't run at them. He'll be solid on the PK as well. But, he has to shake the reputation. He's getting penalties called on him that are clearly NOT penalties and that hurts the Sabres.

[...]

Unfortunately I have to file Kaleta under irrelevant. He might be a fan favorite but he's only noticeable because he does things that other players should be doing.

 

Get some real players who work hard and Pat Kaleta isn't so important anymore.

 

+1

 

I like that Kaleta is a local boy, but the league has neutered him. He is no longer allowed to be effective his way and he doesn't have the skill or size to play the way NHL games seem to played these days.

 

As to the OP, I would agree with the list of those to build around, but I would have to include Vanek and exclude Kaleta. I think the production the Sabres are getting out of Vanek this season, under this season's circumstances, indicate that he is near-elite, if not elite. I could only imagine him on a competent team where he doesn't have to carry it on his back and he could concentrate on just scoring. He would also be this "new" team's captain.

[DaveSnuggerud]

Who are the guys capable of taking the team on their back and scoring goals and making critical plays in the clutch? I really don't see any of that on the current roster. Sorry to say, but I haven't seen it since Briere and Drury. Vanek, Pominville, Roy, etc. rode the coattails of of those two and benefitted from reduced expectations as second tier players. They flourished, actually. When asked to be the top guys, they have wilted and shown no signs of wanting to take that on. At this point, I'm completely exhausted of this limp celery stick personality from our "top 6." Stafford, Pommers, Roy - buh bye. I'd take a t-shirt if someone was willing to take Roy off our hands. I think what I am saying is that Reiger and Ruff need to go first. It's their same tired old vision and "patience" for a group of guys that will NEVER take the next step. It's time for fresh thinking, new ideas, and a new direction. I trust the next coach/GM to step in and make new decisions. This whole mess needs to be blown up and rebuilt.

[nfreeman]

Another point on Pommer: I don't think anyone "hates" him as one poster mentioned above. If he made $2.5MM and didn't wear a letter I'd be very happy with him. But there are 2 critical issues with him:

 

1. Trading him frees up a big chunk of cap room to bring in a really good player -- i.e. him plus Leopold gives you $8.3MM, which is enough for the #1 UFA pretty much every year. Also, he would probably bring back a pretty good pick or prospect in trade.

 

2. As a top 6 forward for the past 5 years and the current captain, he is part and parcel of the team's identity -- which at this point can only be described as soft, mentally weak and underachieving. As an example: Pommer was the closest or 2nd-closest skater to Lucic-Miller. Danny Gare would've immediately and without hesitation performed some hockey dentistry on Lucic. The same is true of Darcy Tucker, Ryan Callahan, Brenden Morrow, Brad Marchand, Mike Richards, and a dozen other top 6 forwards who are about Pommer's size. Pommer got shoved away and meekly went about his business.

 

The team's identity needs to change.

[shrader]

Another point on Pommer: I don't think anyone "hates" him as one poster mentioned above. If he made $2.5MM and didn't wear a letter I'd be very happy with him. But there are 2 critical issues with him:

 

That number is obviously an exaggeration, so what figure would you say his play this year would warrant?

[Sherman]

So after this season we can let Hecht, Boyes Gaustad, Gragnani, Ennis, and Kaleta walk away. That opens spots for Foligno, Kassian on the club, and 3 variable slots.

Trade Roy - that opens a spot for someone.

 

As opposed to letting them walk we should trade all these players for picks or minor leage players who are ready to make the jump. Everyone on that list would provide value to a playoff team. We could rebuild prteey quickly if we decide to do it. It has worked in Philly and Ottawa.

[nfreeman]

That number is obviously an exaggeration, so what figure would you say his play this year would warrant?

 

Because of the captaincy, I don't want to keep him at any salary number. If he didn't wear a letter, I think the right number for him is in the $3MM range. NB that this is based on his play since he signed his contract in 2008, which I think is the right way to evaluate him, not based on 41 games this year.

[FolignosJock]

That number is obviously an exaggeration, so what figure would you say his play this year would warrant?

 

I think 4-4.5 mill would be perfect

[LTS]

As opposed to letting them walk we should trade all these players for picks or minor leage players who are ready to make the jump. Everyone on that list would provide value to a playoff team. We could rebuild prteey quickly if we decide to do it. It has worked in Philly and Ottawa.

 

Yea, I agree with you. Pretty much any player on the roster I wouldn't want I would trade or drop. So they all go into the trade bait category and then the drop category if nothing else. Just based upon effort alone I would prefer to Szczechura up on the squad playing center. He's shown energy and the willingness to get to the "dirty areas". Since the team is not performing I see no reason to keep the "kids" in Rochester.. they can't do ANY worse. The only thing you worry about is the dreaded lack of seasoning in the AHL. Usually that centers around lack of playing time but there again... no reason not to play them now.

 

I don't see this season amounting to anything at this point. I think we'll look back on it and say this was the season the Sabres that started the changes. If the season can be salvaged it will take pulling off a trade sooner rather than later and given the lack of ANY movement in the league right now I don't see it happening. No matter what we are stuck with the current roster until closer to the trade deadline and that means the Sabres are further from a playoff spot.

 

So, you're left with two options in the interim fire coach/GM or do nothing. Right now you only fire Regier if you have no faith in him, I don't see ownership there yet. You only fire the coach if you think the players will respond.. I don't see that either. So, you see what your GM can do the rest of the season and you watch him closely. I am sure they've identified a strategy for moving players, etc. If they can move them you evaluate your GM on that. If the "new" players come in and the team turns around then you have to question whether there is a need to fire the coach or not.

 

Ultimately the best move right now is to wait... unless you have NO faith in the your GM. I don't see Regier making a trade without consensus in the board room so I'm not worried about him ruining the team at the trade deadline and ruining it would be tough.

[Koomkie]

guys i want to build around?

 

zach parise.

shea weber.

zach kassian.

nathan gerbe.

brayden mcnabb.

tyler meyers.

robyn regehr.

thomas vanek.

jason Pomminstein.

pat kaleta.

luke adam.

sekera.

 

honorable mention: tyler ennis

 

 

i don't know. just get parise and weber on this team.

 

oh, and don't take this post seriously at all. it is not even worth looking at.

 

go sabres!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[BuffalOhio]

This Pominville hatred is getting ridiculous. He's a PPG player this season. Just because he doesn't smack people around like Kaleta doesn't make him a bad player.

 

I would dump everyone except Vanek, Pominville, Adam, Myers, Erhoff, Regehr, and Miller. And if Miller doesn't shape up after that then he's gone too.

 

McNabb? KEEP. You don't find 20 year olds that can do what he does.

[nfreeman]

Yea, I agree with you. Pretty much any player on the roster I wouldn't want I would trade or drop. So they all go into the trade bait category and then the drop category if nothing else. Just based upon effort alone I would prefer to Szczechura up on the squad playing center. He's shown energy and the willingness to get to the "dirty areas". Since the team is not performing I see no reason to keep the "kids" in Rochester.. they can't do ANY worse. The only thing you worry about is the dreaded lack of seasoning in the AHL. Usually that centers around lack of playing time but there again... no reason not to play them now.

 

I don't see this season amounting to anything at this point. I think we'll look back on it and say this was the season the Sabres that started the changes. If the season can be salvaged it will take pulling off a trade sooner rather than later and given the lack of ANY movement in the league right now I don't see it happening. No matter what we are stuck with the current roster until closer to the trade deadline and that means the Sabres are further from a playoff spot.

 

So, you're left with two options in the interim fire coach/GM or do nothing. Right now you only fire Regier if you have no faith in him, I don't see ownership there yet. You only fire the coach if you think the players will respond.. I don't see that either. So, you see what your GM can do the rest of the season and you watch him closely. I am sure they've identified a strategy for moving players, etc. If they can move them you evaluate your GM on that. If the "new" players come in and the team turns around then you have to question whether there is a need to fire the coach or not.

 

Ultimately the best move right now is to wait... unless you have NO faith in the your GM. I don't see Regier making a trade without consensus in the board room so I'm not worried about him ruining the team at the trade deadline and ruining it would be tough.

 

I generally agree with a lot of this, and I'm not all the way there yet, but there is a lot to be said for getting a new GM in here NOW to evaluate everything for a month or so before the deadline and to be the one to run the auction at the deadline. I suppose this could be Ken Sawyier or some other senior hockey man operating behind the scenes -- ie not an official DR replacement -- but the return on trades will be highest at the deadline. If in 2-3 weeks it becomes clear that the season is lost, it makes sense to maximize the return at the deadline, and DR probably shouldn't be the one trusted with doing so.

[spndnchz]

Harry Neale. Ever since he came in it's been nothin' but trouble.

 

Bring back Jim Lorentz!

[nbash]

Harry Neale. Ever since he came in it's been nothin' but trouble.

 

Bring back Jim Lorentz!

 

I think you nailed it -- he is a bore and a jinx.

[SwampD]

The default Connolly avitar.